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Redistricting, 2011 Expectations and Results
What is Redistricting definition	 Redistricting is the process of drawing district lines.  It is done every 10 years after the release of the US Census.  The well known examples are Congress and the legislature. Cities, Counties, School Boards, Water Boards…  All elected bodies do redistricting. Reapportionment is the process of assigning congressional seats to states.
What is Redistricting? the Gerrymander The term Gerrymander came  from a cartoon depicting a  rather serpentine looking district created by Governor Elbrige Gerry in Massachusetts.
What is Redistricting the Gerrymander There are still legislative lines that look a lot like the original Gerrymander! Kevin DeLeon’s SD 22
What is Redistricting Why should anyone care?
What is Redistricting Why should anyone care?
What is Redistricting Why should anyone care?
What is Redistricting Why should anyone care? In redistricting it isn’t always about Partisanship.  It is often rural v. urban; different ethnicities, or other factors where winners and losers are found.
What is Redistricting Federal VRA and State CVRA	 VRA is the Federal Voting Rights Act which oversees all election systems, including redistricting.  Operative sections in redistricting are Section 2 and Section 5. CVRA is the California Voting Rights Act– it pushes most at-large systems into districted elections based on an analysis of populations and voting patterns.
What is Redistricting Section 2 and Section 5	 Section 2 of Federal Voting Rights Act protects majority-minority seats.  As a result of recent cases, this must be a single majority with history of polarized voting Section 5 looks specifically at counties and states with a history of unfair election practices.  In California, Yuba, Monterey, Merced and Kings counties are under this section.
Proposition 11 / 20 Principles Public voted for a new system in California The California redistricting experiment, if you believed the commercials, was supposed to achieve the following. ,[object Object]
Create districts that made sense (circles and squares, not the ribbon of shame)
  Protect cities and counties from being divided
Make elections competitive again
  Help reduce the dysfunction in Sacramento / DC
Take Politics out of the Process,[object Object]
Pre-Redraw Discussions The Commission’s Great Unknown Asian Districts?  There were no Section 2 Asian seats in California.  But could some be created? Asian		CVAP Asian SD 8 (Yee)		32%	34% SD 10 (Corbett)30%	33% SD 13 (Alquist)		   26%	29% SD 24 (Hernandez)18%	23%
Pre-Redraw Discussions The Commission’s Great Unknown Asian Districts?  There were no Section 2 Asian seats in California.  But could some be created? Asian		CVAP Asian CD 8 (Pelosi)29%	27% CD 12 (Speier)29%	31% CD 13 (Stark)	  	28%	31% CD 29 (Schiff)24% 	24% CD 47 (Sanchez)14%		 	22%
Traditional Redistricting Principles Used by our Commission The commission must follow many of these criteria, but cannot consider incumbents or partisan advantage. ,[object Object]
 Contiguous – districts should not hop/jump
Follow city/county/local government lines
 Maintain communities of interest
  Keep districts compact – appearance/function
Preserving voter choices (incumbents),[object Object]
Contiguous – districts should not hop/jump
Follow city/county/local government lines
 Maintain communities of interest
  Keep districts compact – appearance/function
Preserving voter choices (incumbents),[object Object]
Contiguous – districts should not hop/jump
  Follow city/county/local government lines
  Maintain communities of interest
  Keep districts compact – appearance/function
 Preserving voter choices (incumbents),[object Object]
Traditional Redistricting Principles Used by our Commission The commission must follow many of these criteria, but cannot consider incumbents or partisan advantage. ,[object Object]
 Contiguous – districts should not hop/jump
Follow city/county/local government lines
 Maintain communities of interest
  Keep districts compact – appearance/function
Preserving voter choices (incumbents),[object Object]
 Contiguous – districts should not hop/jump
Follow city/county/local government lines
Maintain communities of interest
  Keep districts compact – appearance/function
Preserving voter choices (incumbents),[object Object]
  Socioeconomic
 Language
  Religious,[object Object]
  Socioeconomic
 Language
  ReligiousCan also include: ,[object Object]
  Voting patterns
  Workforce,[object Object]
Looking at State Changes New Commission Cook Political Report Congressional Plan The biggest macro challenge is to balance Commission rules, the Voting Rights Act and community input.
Looking at State Changes New Commission An area like this looked like a mess – and it seemed anyone could fix these districts.
Looking at State Changes New Commission But the novices learned that the VRA locked in a number of these seemingly gerrymandered seats
Looking at State Changes New Commission A big question surrounded how Asians would fare under the new VRA rules, particularly the need to create Majority Minority districts as one-race rather than coalitions.
Looking at State Changes New Commission A big question surrounded how Asians would be able to have preferred seats drawn when when an overlapping Latino VRA claim could also be established.
Traditional Redistricting Principles Used by our Commission The commission must follow many of these criteria, but cannot consider incumbents or partisan advantage. ,[object Object]
 Contiguous – districts should not hop/jump
Follow city/county/local government lines
Maintain communities of interest
Keep districts compact – appearance/function
Preserving voter choices (incumbents),[object Object]
Traditional Redistricting Principles Used by our Commission The commission must follow many of these criteria, but cannot consider incumbents or partisan advantage. ,[object Object]
 Contiguous – districts should not hop/jump
Follow city/county/local government lines

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Redistricting 2011: Expectations and Results Presentation

  • 2. What is Redistricting definition Redistricting is the process of drawing district lines. It is done every 10 years after the release of the US Census. The well known examples are Congress and the legislature. Cities, Counties, School Boards, Water Boards… All elected bodies do redistricting. Reapportionment is the process of assigning congressional seats to states.
  • 3. What is Redistricting? the Gerrymander The term Gerrymander came from a cartoon depicting a rather serpentine looking district created by Governor Elbrige Gerry in Massachusetts.
  • 4. What is Redistricting the Gerrymander There are still legislative lines that look a lot like the original Gerrymander! Kevin DeLeon’s SD 22
  • 5. What is Redistricting Why should anyone care?
  • 6. What is Redistricting Why should anyone care?
  • 7. What is Redistricting Why should anyone care?
  • 8. What is Redistricting Why should anyone care? In redistricting it isn’t always about Partisanship. It is often rural v. urban; different ethnicities, or other factors where winners and losers are found.
  • 9. What is Redistricting Federal VRA and State CVRA VRA is the Federal Voting Rights Act which oversees all election systems, including redistricting. Operative sections in redistricting are Section 2 and Section 5. CVRA is the California Voting Rights Act– it pushes most at-large systems into districted elections based on an analysis of populations and voting patterns.
  • 10. What is Redistricting Section 2 and Section 5 Section 2 of Federal Voting Rights Act protects majority-minority seats. As a result of recent cases, this must be a single majority with history of polarized voting Section 5 looks specifically at counties and states with a history of unfair election practices. In California, Yuba, Monterey, Merced and Kings counties are under this section.
  • 11.
  • 12. Create districts that made sense (circles and squares, not the ribbon of shame)
  • 13. Protect cities and counties from being divided
  • 15. Help reduce the dysfunction in Sacramento / DC
  • 16.
  • 17. Pre-Redraw Discussions The Commission’s Great Unknown Asian Districts? There were no Section 2 Asian seats in California. But could some be created? Asian CVAP Asian SD 8 (Yee) 32% 34% SD 10 (Corbett)30% 33% SD 13 (Alquist) 26% 29% SD 24 (Hernandez)18% 23%
  • 18. Pre-Redraw Discussions The Commission’s Great Unknown Asian Districts? There were no Section 2 Asian seats in California. But could some be created? Asian CVAP Asian CD 8 (Pelosi)29% 27% CD 12 (Speier)29% 31% CD 13 (Stark) 28% 31% CD 29 (Schiff)24% 24% CD 47 (Sanchez)14% 22%
  • 19.
  • 20. Contiguous – districts should not hop/jump
  • 23. Keep districts compact – appearance/function
  • 24.
  • 25. Contiguous – districts should not hop/jump
  • 28. Keep districts compact – appearance/function
  • 29.
  • 30. Contiguous – districts should not hop/jump
  • 31. Follow city/county/local government lines
  • 32. Maintain communities of interest
  • 33. Keep districts compact – appearance/function
  • 34.
  • 35.
  • 36. Contiguous – districts should not hop/jump
  • 39. Keep districts compact – appearance/function
  • 40.
  • 41. Contiguous – districts should not hop/jump
  • 44. Keep districts compact – appearance/function
  • 45.
  • 48.
  • 51.
  • 52. Voting patterns
  • 53.
  • 54. Looking at State Changes New Commission Cook Political Report Congressional Plan The biggest macro challenge is to balance Commission rules, the Voting Rights Act and community input.
  • 55. Looking at State Changes New Commission An area like this looked like a mess – and it seemed anyone could fix these districts.
  • 56. Looking at State Changes New Commission But the novices learned that the VRA locked in a number of these seemingly gerrymandered seats
  • 57. Looking at State Changes New Commission A big question surrounded how Asians would fare under the new VRA rules, particularly the need to create Majority Minority districts as one-race rather than coalitions.
  • 58. Looking at State Changes New Commission A big question surrounded how Asians would be able to have preferred seats drawn when when an overlapping Latino VRA claim could also be established.
  • 59.
  • 60. Contiguous – districts should not hop/jump
  • 63. Keep districts compact – appearance/function
  • 64.
  • 65.
  • 66. Contiguous – districts should not hop/jump
  • 69. Keep districts compact – appearance/function
  • 70.
  • 71. The ethnic group is large and compact enough to make 50% of a district.
  • 72.
  • 73.
  • 74.
  • 75. Where Asian RPV is clear
  • 76.
  • 77.
  • 78. Where Asian RPV is clear
  • 79. Where Asian RPV is clear
  • 80. Where Asian RPV is clear
  • 81.
  • 82.
  • 83. Yee for Assembly 2010 Primary
  • 87. Where Asian RPV is less clear 2006 Democratic Primary Controller – Dunn v. Chiang The 2006 Dem Primary pitted trial lawyer Joe Dunn from Orange County versus prosecutor John Chiang from Los Angeles. White voters favored Chiang by 16%, with Asian voters favoring Chiang by the slightly larger margin of 24%
  • 88.
  • 89. The ethnic group is large and compact enough to make 50% of a district.
  • 90.
  • 91. The ethnic group is large and compact enough to make 50% of a district.
  • 92.
  • 93. Creates one-time competition even if without long-term competitiveness
  • 94.
  • 95. Proposition 11 / 20 Outcomes Are things better today than Four Months Ago? Asian Districts? There were no Section 2 Asian seats in California. But could some be created? Asian CVAP Asian SD 8 32% 34% SD 10 30% 33% SD 13 26% 29% SD 24 18% 23%
  • 96. Proposition 11 / 20 Outcomes Are things better today than Four Months Ago? Asian Districts? There were no Section 2 Asian seats in California. But could some be created? Asian CVAP Asian SD 10 40% 33% SD 22 32% 31% SD 11 36% 31% SD 15 30% 25%
  • 97. Proposition 11 / 20 Outcomes Are things better today than Four Months Ago? Asian Districts? There were no Section 2 Asian seats in California. But could some be created? Asian CVAP Asian CD 8 29% 27% CD 12 29% 31% CD 13 28% 31% CD 29 24% 24% CD 47 14% 22%
  • 98. Proposition 11 / 20 Outcomes Are things better today than Four Months Ago? Asian Districts? There were no Section 2 Asian seats in California. But could some be created? Asian CVAP Asian CD 17 49% 38% CD 27 37% 31% CD 14 31% 28% CD 12 31% 27% CD 19 26%25%
  • 99. Proposition 11 / 20 Outcomes Are things better today than Four Months Ago? Asian Districts? There were no Section 2 Asian seats in California. But could some be created? Asian CVAP Asian AD 49 39% 47% AD 12 43% 41% AD 20 36% 38% AD 22 33% 31% AD 23 26% 32% AD 68 25% 30%
  • 100. Proposition 11 / 20 Outcomes Are things better today than Four Months Ago? Asian Districts? There were no Section 2 Asian seats in California. But could some be created? Asian CVAP Asian AD 49 53% 50% AD 19 44% 39% AD 25 49% 39% AD 27 33% 34% AD 20 31% 28% AD 72 32% 28%
  • 101. Proposition 11 / 20 Outcomes Are things better today than Four Months Ago? Asian Districts? There were no Section 2 Asian seats in California. But could some be created? Asian CVAP Asian AD 49 53%50% AD 19 44% 39% AD 25 49% 39% AD 27 33% 34% AD 20 31% 28% AD 72 32% 28%
  • 102. Proposition 11 / 20 Outcomes Are things better today than Four Months Ago? These overarching numbers provide a comparison point, but what does it mean for elected API officials and campaigns in the next decade?
  • 103.
  • 104.
  • 105. Proposition 11 / 20 Outcomes Handouts provide a very detailed look
  • 106. Proposition 11 / 20 Outcomes Handouts provide a very detailed look
  • 107. Proposition 11 / 20 Outcomes Handouts provide a very detailed look
  • 108.
  • 109. Lawsuits moving on both Senate and Congressional.
  • 110.