This document provides estimates for the global toy market from 2007-2010 and projections for 2011. It ranks the top 20 countries by market share and provides more detailed data on 11 countries where NPD operates tracking services, including market size in local currency and USD for each year. Population data by age group is also included for many countries globally to support the estimation methodology, which uses child population and GDP per capita as key factors.
1. MOCK REPORT
Global Toy Market Estimates
2011 Edition
Released June 2011
Proprietary and Confidential
Copyright 2011. The NPD Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential: All materials are the property of The NPD Group, Inc. and its affiliates, are provided for the confidential use of NPD clients
This NPD Report (including any attachments) is the property of The NPD Group, Inc. and contains confidential and proprietary information. This report is licensed and intended solely for the individual or entity to which it was addressed. If
you are not the intended recipient, and if you have not licensed this NPD Report, any interception, copying, distribution, disclosure or use of this NPD Report or any information contained in it is strictly prohibited and may be subject to
criminal and civil penalties. If you are interested in licensing a copy of this NPD Report, please contact Charles Camaroto at The NPD Group, Inc. at +1.866.444.1411
2. Table of Contents
Methodology Page 3
2007-2010 Global Results Page 4
Top 20 Page 6
Country Charts
1 - Country Name Page 7
2 - Country Name Page 8
3 - Country Name Page 9
4 - Country Name Page 10
5 - Country Name Page 11
6 - Country Name Page 12
7 - Country Name Page 13
8 - Country Name Page 14
9 - Country Name Page 15
10 - Country Name Page 16
11 - Country Name Page 17
12 - Country Name Page 18
13 - Country Name Page 19
14 - Country Name Page 20
15 - Country Name Page 21
16 - Country Name Page 22
17 - Country Name Page 23
18 - Country Name Page 24
19 - Country Name Page 25
20 - Country Name Page 26
Summary - NPD tracked countries Page 27
Appendices
Appendix A: Country Population by Age
Appendix B: Gross Domestic Product per Capita
3. Methodology
NPD is currently operating toy tracking services in 11 markets (listed in descending size) and actual market
size data was used in this estimation:
US, UK, France, Germany, Australia, Italy, Spain, Belgium, Poland, Austria, Portugal.
Models were developed to estimate market size for countries where NPD doesn’t operate. The concept behind
the estimation models is that the primary factors which drive toy and game market consumption include child
population and GDP per capita.
- The richer the county the higher the average expenditure in Toys per child.
- The richer the country, the higher the proportion of consumers age 15 and older per country.
Therefore changes in population (by age groups) and changes in GDP per capita will drive changes in market
size factors that drive the changes in consumption.
The market size estimates included in this report were based on data provided by the following international
bodies:
-Population trends from the US Census Bureau International Database (extraction Feb. 2011)
-GDP figures from the IMF, World Economic Outlook (extraction March 2011)
Exchange rates were used as of December 31st.
Page 3
4. 2011 Global Toy Market Estimates Report
2007-2010 GLOBAL RESULT
2007 2008 2009 2010
2008 vs. 2009 vs. 2010 vs.
2007 2008 2009
Value (million $) % Value Value (million $) % Value Value (million $) % Value Value (million $) % Value
World Toy Market
Africa
Eastern Africa
Middle Africa
Northern Africa
Southern Africa
South Africa
Western Africa
Nigeria
Asia
Eastern Asia
China
Hong Kong SAR
Japan
Korea, South
Taiwan
South-central Asia
India
South-eastern Asia
Indonesia
Western Asia
Israel
Saudi Arabia
Turkey
United Arab Emirates
Europe
Eastern Europe
Poland
Russia
Northern Europe
Denmark
Finland
Ireland
Norway
Sweden
United Kingdom
Page 4
5. 2011 Global Toy Market Estimates Report
2007-2010 GLOBAL RESULT
2007 2008 2009 2010
2008 vs. 2009 vs. 2010 vs.
2007 2008 2009
Value (million $) % Value Value (million $) % Value Value (million $) % Value Value (million $) % Value
Southern Europe
Italy
Portugal
Spain
Western Europe
Austria
Belgium
France
Germany
Netherlands
Switzerland
Latin America and the Caribbean
Central America
Mexico
South America
Argentina
Brazil
Colombia
Venezuela
Northern America
Canada
United States of America
Oceania
Australia/New Zealand
Australia
New Zealand
Melanesia
Micronesia
Polynesia
Exchange Rates are as of December 31st of the year
Page 5
6. 2011 Global Toy Market Estimates Report
Top 20 Countries
Ranked by $ Share
2009 2010
1 Country Name 5% 5%
2 Country Name 5% 5%
3 Country Name 5% 5%
4 Country Name 5% 5%
5 Country Name 5% 5%
6 Country Name 5% 5%
7 Country Name 5% 5%
8 Country Name 5% 5%
9 Country Name 5% 5%
10 Country Name 5% 5%
11 Country Name 1% 1%
12 Country Name 1% 1%
13 Country Name 1% 1%
14 Country Name 1% 1%
15 Country Name 1% 1%
16 Country Name 1% 1%
17 Country Name 1% 1%
18 Country Name 1% 1%
19 Country Name 1% 1%
20 Country Name 1% 1%
TOP 10 50% 50%
TOP 20 60% 60%
Page 6
7. Country Name MOCK DATA
$300
2007
Toy Market Size Estimate (MM)
2008
$400
2009
$500
2010
$600
2011 (est.)
$700
Projections* 2009 2010 2011* 2012* 2013* 2014* Toy Market Size Estimate (MM)
GDP per capita $4,000 $4,500 $5,000 $5,500 $6,000 $6,500 $700
Population by age (MM) $600
0-4 years old 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.8 $500
5-9 years old 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.8 $400
10-14 years old 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.8 $300
2009 2010
Toy market (MM) $500 $600
% in world toy market 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 (est.)
$ per kid $37 $46
Total population (MM) 49 49
Kids population (MM) 14 14 Population by age
Kids in total population 28.9% 28.6% 4.9
Toy market by age and gender % $ % $
4.8
Boys 0-4 years old 14.0% $100 14.0% $100
Population (MM)
Boys 5-9 years old 14.0% $200 14.0% $200 4.8
Boys 10-14 years old 14.0% $100 14.0% $100 4.7
Girls 0-4 years old 14.0% $200 14.0% $200
4.7
Girls 5-9 years old 14.0% $100 14.0% $100
Girls 10-14 years old 14.0% $200 14.0% $200 4.6
15 years old and over 14.0% $100 14.0% $100 4.6
Toy Expenditure per kid Boys Girls Boys Girls
4.5
0-14 years old $40 $40 $40 $40 2009 2010 2011* 2012* 2013* 2014*
0-4 years old $50 $50 $50 $50 0-4 years old 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.8
5-9 years old $60 $60 $60 $60 5-9 years old 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.8
10-14 years old $70 $70 $70 $70 10-14 years old 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.8
% in world toy 2010 Toy expenditure/kid 2010 Toy market by age and gender
market $80
$70 $70
$70 Boys 0-4 years old
$60 $60
$60 14% 15% Boys 5-9 years old
$50 $50
$50
$40 $40 Boys 10-14 years old
50% 50%
$40 Boys 14% 15% Girls 0-4 years old
$30 Girls Girls 5-9 years old
$20 14% 14% Girls 10-14 years old
$10 15 years old and over
14%
$0
0-14 years old 0-4 years old 5-9 years old 10-14 years old
Page 7 - Prioprietary Confidential
8. 2011 Global Toy Market Estimates Report
SUMMARY of NPD TRACKED COUNTRIES
Source Currency Tracked Market Size (LC) Coverage
2007 2008 2009 2010 2007 2008 2009 2010
Australia CST AUD
Austria PoS Euro
Belgium PoS Euro
France Consumer Euro
Germany Consumer Euro
Italy Consumer Euro
Poland PoS Zloty
Portugal PoS Euro
Spain Consumer Euro
UK Consumer Pound
USA Consumer USD
Source Country Market Size (LC) Exchange Rate
2007 2008 2009 2010 2007 2008 2009 2010
Australia CST
Austria PoS
Belgium PoS
France Consumer
Germany Consumer
Italy Consumer
Poland PoS
Portugal PoS
Spain Consumer
UK Consumer
USA Consumer
Country Market Size
Source (USD) - Constant 2009 % NPD countries % NPD countries % NPD countries % Chg % Chg % Chg
ER
2007 2008 2009 2010 '07 v. '08 '08 v. '09 '09 v. '10
Australia CST
Austria PoS
Belgium PoS
France Consumer
Germany Consumer
Italy Consumer
Poland PoS
Portugal PoS
Spain Consumer
UK Consumer
USA Consumer
Page 8
9. 2011 Global Toy Market Estimates Report
POPULATION BY AGE
without gender distinction
0- 4 year olds 5- 9 year olds 10-14 year olds
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Afghanistan, Rep. of.
Albania
Algeria
American Samoa
Andorra
Angola
Anguilla
Antigua and Barbuda
Argentina
Armenia
Aruba
Australia
Austria
Azerbaijan
Bahamas, The
Bahrain
Bangladesh
Barbados
Belarus
Belgium
Belize
Benin
Bermuda
Bhutan
Bolivia
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Botswana
Brazil
Brunei Darussalam
Bulgaria
Burkina Faso
Burma
Burundi
Cambodia
Cameroon
Canada
Cape Verde
Cayman Islands
Central African Republic
Chad
Chile
China
Colombia
Comoros
Congo, Republic of
Congo, Democratic Republic of
Cook Islands
Costa Rica
Côte d’Ivoire
Croatia
Cuba
Cyprus
Czech Republic
Denmark
Djibouti
Dominica
Dominican Republic
Ecuador
Egypt
El Salvador
Equatorial Guinea
Eritrea
Estonia
Ethiopia
Faroe Islands
Fiji
Finland
France
French Polynesia
Gabon
Gambia, The
Gaza Strip
Georgia
Germany
Ghana
Gibraltar
Greece
Greenland
Grenada
Appendix A
10. 2011 Global Toy Market Estimates Report
POPULATION BY AGE
without gender distinction
0- 4 year olds 5- 9 year olds 10-14 year olds
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Guam
Guatemala
Guernsey
Guinea
Guinea-Bissau
Guyana
Haiti
Honduras
Hong Kong SAR
Hungary
Iceland
India
Indonesia
Iran, Islamic Republic of
Iraq
Ireland
Isle of Man
Israel
Italy
Jamaica
Japan
Jersey
Jordan
Kazakhstan
Kenya
Kiribati
Korea, North
Korea, South
Kosovo
Kuwait
Kyrgyz Republic
Lao People's Democratic Republic
Latvia
Lebanon
Lesotho
Liberia
Libya
Liechtenstein
Lithuania
Luxembourg
China, Macao SAR
Macedonia, Former Yugoslav Republic of
Madagascar
Malawi
Malaysia
Maldives
Mali
Malta
Marshall Islands
Mauritania
Mauritius
Mayotte
Mexico
Micronesia (Federated States of)
Moldova
Monaco
Mongolia
Montenegro
Montserrat
Morocco
Mozambique
Namibia
Nauru
Nepal
Netherlands
Netherlands Antilles
New Caledonia
New Zealand
Nicaragua
Niger
Nigeria
Northern Mariana Islands
Norway
Oman
Pakistan
Palau
Panama
Papua New Guinea
Appendix A
11. 2011 Global Toy Market Estimates Report
POPULATION BY AGE
without gender distinction
0- 4 year olds 5- 9 year olds 10-14 year olds
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Paraguay
Peru
Philippines
Poland
Portugal
Puerto Rico
Qatar
Romania
Russia
Rwanda
Saint Barthelemy
St. Helena
St. Kitts and Nevis
St. Lucia
Saint Martin
Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon
St. Vincent and the Grenadines
Samoa
San Marino
Sao Tome and Principe
Saudi Arabia
Senegal
Serbia
Seychelles
Sierra Leone
Singapore
Slovak Republic
Slovenia
Solomon Islands
Somalia
South Africa
Spain
Sri Lanka
Sudan
Suriname
Swaziland
Sweden
Switzerland
Syrian Arab Republic
Taiwan
Tajikistan
Tanzania
Thailand
Timor-Leste, Dem. Rep. of
Togo
Tonga
Trinidad and Tobago
Tunisia
Turkey
Turkmenistan
Turks and Caicos Islands
Tuvalu
Uganda
Ukraine
United Arab Emirates
United Kingdom
United States
Uruguay
Uzbekistan
Vanuatu
Venezuela
Vietnam
British Virgin Islands
United States Virgin Islands
Wallis and Futuna Islands
West Bank
Western Sahara
Yemen, Republic of
Zambia
Zimbabwe
Grand Total
Appendix A
12. 2011 Global Toy Market Estimates Report
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT PER CAPITA
Current Prices
Units 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Units 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Afghanistan, Rep. of. U.S. Dollars Latvia U.S. Dollars
Albania U.S. Dollars Lebanon U.S. Dollars
Algeria U.S. Dollars Lesotho U.S. Dollars
Angola U.S. Dollars Liberia U.S. Dollars
Antigua and Barbuda U.S. Dollars Libya U.S. Dollars
Argentina U.S. Dollars Lithuania U.S. Dollars
Armenia U.S. Dollars Luxembourg U.S. Dollars
Australia U.S. Dollars Macedonia, Former Yugoslav Republic of U.S. Dollars
Austria U.S. Dollars Madagascar U.S. Dollars
Azerbaijan U.S. Dollars Malawi U.S. Dollars
Bahamas, The U.S. Dollars Malaysia U.S. Dollars
Bahrain U.S. Dollars Maldives U.S. Dollars
Bangladesh U.S. Dollars Mali U.S. Dollars
Barbados U.S. Dollars Malta U.S. Dollars
Belarus U.S. Dollars Mauritania U.S. Dollars
Belgium U.S. Dollars Mauritius U.S. Dollars
Belize U.S. Dollars Mexico U.S. Dollars
Benin U.S. Dollars Moldova U.S. Dollars
Bhutan U.S. Dollars Mongolia U.S. Dollars
Bolivia U.S. Dollars Montenegro U.S. Dollars
Bosnia and Herzegovina U.S. Dollars Morocco U.S. Dollars
Botswana U.S. Dollars Mozambique U.S. Dollars
Brazil U.S. Dollars Burma U.S. Dollars
Brunei Darussalam U.S. Dollars Namibia U.S. Dollars
Bulgaria U.S. Dollars Nepal U.S. Dollars
Burkina Faso U.S. Dollars Netherlands U.S. Dollars
Burundi U.S. Dollars New Zealand U.S. Dollars
Cambodia U.S. Dollars Nicaragua U.S. Dollars
Cameroon U.S. Dollars Niger U.S. Dollars
Canada U.S. Dollars Nigeria U.S. Dollars
Cape Verde U.S. Dollars Norway U.S. Dollars
Central African Republic U.S. Dollars Oman U.S. Dollars
Chad U.S. Dollars Pakistan U.S. Dollars
Chile U.S. Dollars Panama U.S. Dollars
China U.S. Dollars Papua New Guinea U.S. Dollars
Colombia U.S. Dollars Paraguay U.S. Dollars
Comoros U.S. Dollars Peru U.S. Dollars
Congo, Democratic Republic of U.S. Dollars Philippines U.S. Dollars
Congo, Republic of U.S. Dollars Poland U.S. Dollars
Costa Rica U.S. Dollars Portugal U.S. Dollars
Côte d’Ivoire U.S. Dollars Qatar U.S. Dollars
Croatia U.S. Dollars Romania U.S. Dollars
Cyprus U.S. Dollars Russia U.S. Dollars
Czech Republic U.S. Dollars Rwanda U.S. Dollars
Denmark U.S. Dollars Samoa U.S. Dollars
Djibouti U.S. Dollars Sao Tome and Principe U.S. Dollars
Dominica U.S. Dollars Saudi Arabia U.S. Dollars
Dominican Republic U.S. Dollars Senegal U.S. Dollars
Ecuador U.S. Dollars Serbia U.S. Dollars
Egypt U.S. Dollars Seychelles U.S. Dollars
El Salvador U.S. Dollars Sierra Leone U.S. Dollars
Equatorial Guinea U.S. Dollars Singapore U.S. Dollars
Eritrea U.S. Dollars Slovak Republic U.S. Dollars
Estonia U.S. Dollars Slovenia U.S. Dollars
Ethiopia U.S. Dollars Solomon Islands U.S. Dollars
Fiji U.S. Dollars South Africa U.S. Dollars
Finland U.S. Dollars Spain U.S. Dollars
France U.S. Dollars Sri Lanka U.S. Dollars
Gabon U.S. Dollars St. Kitts and Nevis U.S. Dollars
Gambia, The U.S. Dollars St. Lucia U.S. Dollars
Georgia U.S. Dollars St. Vincent and the Grenadines U.S. Dollars
Germany U.S. Dollars Sudan U.S. Dollars
Ghana U.S. Dollars Suriname U.S. Dollars
Greece U.S. Dollars Swaziland U.S. Dollars
Grenada U.S. Dollars Sweden U.S. Dollars
Guatemala U.S. Dollars Switzerland U.S. Dollars
Guinea U.S. Dollars Syrian Arab Republic U.S. Dollars
Guinea-Bissau U.S. Dollars Taiwan U.S. Dollars
Guyana U.S. Dollars Tajikistan U.S. Dollars
Haiti U.S. Dollars Tanzania U.S. Dollars
Honduras U.S. Dollars Thailand U.S. Dollars
Hong Kong SAR U.S. Dollars Timor-Leste, Dem. Rep. of U.S. Dollars
Hungary U.S. Dollars Togo U.S. Dollars
Iceland U.S. Dollars Tonga U.S. Dollars
India U.S. Dollars Trinidad and Tobago U.S. Dollars
Indonesia U.S. Dollars Tunisia U.S. Dollars
Iran, Islamic Republic of U.S. Dollars Turkey U.S. Dollars
Iraq U.S. Dollars Turkmenistan U.S. Dollars
Ireland U.S. Dollars Uganda U.S. Dollars
Israel U.S. Dollars Ukraine U.S. Dollars
Italy U.S. Dollars United Arab Emirates U.S. Dollars
Jamaica U.S. Dollars United Kingdom U.S. Dollars
Japan U.S. Dollars United States U.S. Dollars
Jordan U.S. Dollars Uruguay U.S. Dollars
Kazakhstan U.S. Dollars Uzbekistan U.S. Dollars
Kenya U.S. Dollars Vanuatu U.S. Dollars
Kiribati U.S. Dollars Venezuela U.S. Dollars
Korea, South U.S. Dollars Vietnam U.S. Dollars
Kuwait U.S. Dollars Yemen, Republic of U.S. Dollars
Kyrgyz Republic U.S. Dollars Zambia U.S. Dollars
Lao People's Democratic Republic U.S. Dollars Zimbabwe U.S. Dollars
Gross domestic product per capita, current prices
GDP is expressed in current U.S. dollars per person. Data are derived by first converting GDP in national currency to U.S. dollars and then dividing it by total population.
Appendix B
13. For questions or additional information
please contact your account representative
If you are not a current client, please contact:
In U.S.: Nicole.Sangari@npd.com 1-323-851-8800
In Europe: Alexander.Weber@npdgroup.com +49-911-8918-333
General: Jane.Zimmy@npd.com +1-516-625-2226
Copyright 2011. The NPD Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved. This presentation is Proprietary and Confidential and
may not be disclosed in any manner, in whole or in part, to any third party without the express written consent of NPD.