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INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY
            RESE ARCH INSTITUTE
            sustainable solutions for ending hunger and poverty

IFPRI   ®
            Supported by the CGIAR




                                                                                          June 2011




                HOW CAN AFRICAN
            AGRICULTURE ADAPT TO
                 CLIMATE CHANGE?
 INSIGHTS FROM ETHIOPIA AND SOUTH AFRICA


            Edited by Claudia Ringler, Elizabeth Bryan, Rashid M. Hassan,
                                       Tekie Alemu, and Marya Hillesland




                                                                  Research Brief Series   15
Introduction

During the coming decades, global change will impact food and water security in significant but highly uncertain ways.
There are strong indications that developing countries will bear the brunt of the consequences, particularly from climate
change. In Sub-Saharan Africa, agriculture—the mainstay of rural livelihoods—is particularly vulnerable to the adverse
impacts of climate change, and the adaptive capacity of rural smallholders is extremely low. Consequently, it is important
to understand the impacts of global change on agriculture and natural resources in Sub-Saharan Africa and to identify
informed and effective adaptation measures and investment priorities to alleviate the harmful impacts of global change.

This set of briefs assesses these issues with a focus on the Nile Basin in Ethiopia and the Limpopo Basin in South Africa.
Authors identify climate change impacts on agricultural productivity and food production; assess the vulnerability of the
farming sector and farm households to climate variability and change; examine climate change perceptions; and suggest
adaptation strategies at the farm, basin, and national levels alongside the associated investments needed to implement
such strategies.

We are grateful to the authors for their research and analyses, to the reviewers for their constructive comments, and to
Mary Jane Banks and Ashley St. Thomas for their editorial assistance. We gratefully acknowledge financial support from
the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development, Germany. We hope that the insights on climate
change impacts and adaptation options presented here will contribute to policy changes that profoundly increase the
capacity of the rural poor in Sub-Saharan Africa to adapt to climate change.

Claudia Ringler                                                Tekie Alemu
Senior Research Fellow, International Food Policy              Dean, School of Economics, Addis Ababa University,
Research Institute, Washington, DC                             Ethiopia
Elizabeth Bryan                                                Marya Hillesland
Research Analyst, International Food Policy Research           PhD candidate, American University, Washington, DC
Institute, Washington, DC
Rashid M. Hassan
Director, Centre for Environmental Economics and Policy
in Africa, University of Pretoria, South Africa




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IFPRI Briefs
INTERNATIONAL FOOD
                POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
                sustainable solutions for ending hunger and poverty

                Supported by the CGIAR


                                                                                                                     IFPRI Research Brief              15–1
HOW CAN AFRICAN AGRICULTURE ADAPT TO CLIMATE CHANGE? INSIGHTS FROM ETHIOPIA AND SOUTH AFRICA

the impact of climate variability and climate change
on water and Food Outcomes
A Framework for Analysis
Claudia Ringler


O      ver the coming decades, global change will have an impact
       on food and water security in significant and highly uncer-
tain ways, and there are strong indications that developing countries
                                                                         security must take into account relevant hydrologic, agronomic,
                                                                         economic, social, and environmental processes at global, regional,
                                                                         national, basin, and local levels (Figure 1). This could be done
will bear the brunt of the adverse consequences, particularly from       following the paradigm of “strategic cyclical scaling” devised by
climate change. This is largely because poverty levels are high, and     Root and Schneider (see further reading), which incorporates
developing-country capacity to adapt to global change is weak.           large- and small-scale research studies to improve our under-
Furthermore, the rural populations of developing countries—for           standing of complex environmental systems and allow more reliable
whom agricultural production is the primary source of direct and         projections of the ecological, economic, and social consequences of
indirect employment and income—will be most affected due                 global change. Process-based, bottom-up relationships are used to
agriculture’s vulnerability to global change processes. The agricul-     predict larger scale behavior, which is then tested against large-scale
tural sector is the largest consumer of water resources, and             data for a top-down evaluation. Cycling between large and small
variability in water supply has a major influence on health and          scales should thus produce more credible overall results.
welfare in poor areas. With water scarcity and extreme weather
events expected to increase under climate change, water security      Figure 1 Global change, Spatial Scales, and Adaptation Strategies
could decline significantly in rural areas. Consequently, it is
important to understand the impacts of global change (in terms                                                                 Farm level
                                                                            Climate       • Crop and livestock selection
of climate, demography, technology, and so on) on agriculture               change        • Cropping and grazing patterns
and natural resources in developing countries and to develop                              • Irrigation/watering technology
adaptive capacity to respond to these impacts. Moreover, there is                                                              Basin level
                                                                           Extreme        • Water allocation policy
a need to develop informed and effective adaptation measures               weather        • Infrastructure investment
and investment options that can be taken now to alleviate                   events        • Land use change
adverse impacts of global change in the future.                                                                               National level
                                                                                                     • Agriculture and water price policies
                                                                                  Demographic        • Investment, subsidy, and tax policies
FramewOrk FOr analysis                                                              change           • Trade policies
                                                                                                                                                Regional level
While food and water security are largely determined by actions
                                                                                                     • Regional trade policies
taken at the local or national levels, global factors—such as
                                                                                     Conflict        • Global climate policies
world food trade, global climate and climate change, and                            and crises       • Global trading patterns                  Global level
competition for water—also affect food and water security
locally. Moreover, human alteration of land use patterns,
                                                                                GLOBAL CHANGE               ADAPTATION STRATEGIES              SPATIAL SCALES
urbanization, elimination of wetlands, nutrient overloading in
water systems, and other biophysical changes could dramatically                SouRce: C. Ringler, The impact of climate variability and climate change on
affect the ability of the global water cycle to support needed food            water and food outcomes: A framework for analysis, in C. van Bers, D. Petry,
production. The development of policies that mitigate adverse                  and C. Pahl-Wostl, eds., Global assessments: Bridging scales and linking to policy,
                                                                               GWSP Issues in Global Water System Research No. 2, http://www.gwsp.org/
impacts, enhance positive impacts, and support adaptation to                   downloads/gwsp_issues_no2.pdf, 2007.
climate and global change, together with enhancing local food
and water security, therefore requires an understanding of the
interactions among local, basin-level, national, and global factors.              research activities
     Thus, analysis of strategies for increased food and water                    A project supported by Germany’s Federal Ministry for Economic
                                                                                  Cooperation and Development, entitled “Food and Water Security


2033 K Street, NW • Washington, DC 20006-1002 USA • T. +1-202-862-5600 / Skype: IFPRIhomeoffice • F. +1-202-467-4439 • ifpri@cgiar.org         www.ifpri.org
under Global Change: Developing Adaptive Capacity with a                                        These sets of analyses were complemented with papers on the
Focus on Rural Africa,” has conducted research on adaptation to                            role of climate change mitigation for the region, the importance of
climate change at various scales. This project, which is associated                        taking risk into account in devising adaptation options, and the role
with the Challenge Program on Water and Food under the                                     of collective action and property rights in community adaptation.
Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research                                  The outcomes of the analyses can be used to guide appropriate
(CGIAR), involved close collaboration with researchers at the                              response options to reduce rural vulnerability to global change.
Center for Environmental Economics and Policy in Africa, the
Ethiopian Development Research Institute, the Ethiopian
                                                                                           cOnclusiOns
Economics Association, and the University of Hamburg.
                                                                                           The development of adaptive capacity to reduce adverse impacts of
     At the local level, farm household surveys were implemented
                                                                                           global change in rural areas of developing countries requires analyses
in the Nile River Basin of Ethiopia and the Limpopo River Basin
                                                                                           at various spatial scales and an understanding of the linkages across
of South Africa to examine vulnerability to shocks, perceptions of
                                                                                           the various scales. At the farm level, households adjust to global
long-term changes in climate (precipitation and temperature), and
                                                                                           change by changing farm practices or abandoning farming. These
the determinants of adaptation to long-term global warming.
Policymakers are generally more interested in the development of                           local actions, in turn, influence climate and global change. At the
adaptation measures following political rather than hydrologic                             basin level, basin authorities influence both land and water alloca-
boundaries. Consequently, vulnerability and adaptation measures                            tion, and carry out purposeful adaptations to global change.
were also developed at the province and state levels for these two                         Purposeful adaptation can be either tactical, in response to climate or
countries. In parallel, stakeholder forums were held in Ethiopia                           other global changes, or strategic, in anticipation of future global
and South Africa to discuss measures of vulnerability, adaptation                          change. At the national level, governments and authorities influence
options and constraints, and the role of information and various                           ecosystem services and human well-being. They also carry out
actors—that is, the State, private sector, and civil society—in                            purposeful adaptations, including changes in price, trade, and
shaping adaptation to climate change. Finally, the impact of                               investment policies to anticipate or respond to global change. At the
climate change on crop production in the survey sites was simu-                            regional level, organizations and institutions have the potential to
lated based on crop yield and production function models to assess                         mitigate global change impacts through changes in trading regimes,
the implications of climate change for local food security.                                and the development of regional transportation and communications
     At the basin level, the impact of climate change on water                             infrastructure. Important global factors also affect water and food
availability, water demands, and irrigation was simulated to                               security at the local level, such as world food trade and competition
identify basin-level adaptation strategies. Moreover, alternative                          for water generated by the world economy.
investment strategies at the basin level were identified for Ethiopia                           This series of briefs describes the results of research in all
taking into account climate variability and change, and broader                            these areas. While these results reflect only one round of research
impacts on the economy. A different but similar approach was                               using the “strategic cyclical scaling” framework, it is hoped that
used to study the impact of climate change and adaptation                                  future research will lead to even greater integration of bottom-up
strategies on river basin units in South Africa. To capture the                            and top-down approaches.
interactions of climate change and adaptation at the national and
regional (Sub-Saharan Africa) levels, a water and food projections                         FOr Further reaDinG
model was updated to take into account the impacts of climate                              Ringler, C., The impact of climate variability and climate change on
change in addition to other drivers of global change. Using the                                 water and food outcomes: A framework for analysis, in C. van Bers,
integrated analysis tool, the impact of global change on poverty                                D. Petry, and C. Pahl-Wostl, eds., Global assessments: Bridging
and water and food security was assessed for case study countries                               scales and linking to policy, GWSP Issues in Global Water System
and Sub-Saharan Africa. Alternative adaptation strategies                                       Research No. 2, http://www.gwsp.org/downloads/gwsp_issues_no2.
developed at workshops were assessed using the modeling                                         pdf, 2007.
framework, taking into account the local-level constraints and                             Root, T. L., and S. H. Schneider, Ecology and climate: Research
basin-level challenges identified.                                                               strategies and implications. Science 269 (5222: 334–341, 1995).

c. ringler (c.ringler@cgiar.org) is a senior research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC.


     This series of IFPRI Research Briefs is based on research supported by the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development, Germany, under the
     project “Food and Water Security under Global Change: Developing Adaptive Capacity with a Focus on Rural Africa,” which forms part of the CGIAR
     Challenge Program on Water and Food. Through collaboration with the Center for Environmental Economics and Policy in Africa, the Ethiopian Develop-
     ment Research Institute, the Ethiopian Economics Association, and the University of Hamburg, the project aims to provide policymakers and stakeholders in
     Ethiopia and South Africa with tools to better understand and analyze the consequences of global change—in particular climate change—and to form policy
     decisions that facilitate adaptation in these countries and beyond.


Financial Contributors and Partners
IFPRI’s research, capacity strengthening, and communications work is made possible by its financial contributors and partners. IFPRI receives its principal funding from
governments, private foundations, and international and regional organizations, most of which are members of the Consultative Group on International Agricultural
Research (CGIAR). IFPRI gratefully acknowledges the generous unrestricted funding from Australia, Canada, China, Finland, France, Germany, India, Ireland, Italy,
Japan, Netherlands, Norway, South Africa, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom, United States, and World Bank.

Printed on alternative-fiber paper manufactured from agriculturally sustainable resources that are processed chlorine-free (PCF).
Copyright © 2008 International Food Policy Research Institute. All rights reserved. Sections of this document may be reproduced without the permission of but with
acknowledgment to IFPRI. Contact ifpri-copyright@cgiar.org for permission to reprint.
INTERNATIONAL FOOD                                                                            Center for Environmental Economics
                POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE                                                                     and Policy in Africa
                sustainable solutions for ending hunger and poverty

                Supported by the CGIAR


                                                                                                                  IFPRI Research Brief        15–2
HOW CAN AFRICAN AGRICULTURE ADAPT TO CLIMATE CHANGE? INSIGHTS FROM ETHIOPIA AND SOUTH AFRICA

Vulnerability and the Impact of Climate Change in South
Africa’s Limpopo River Basin
Sharon Shewmake


W        ith likely long-term changes in rainfall patterns and shifting
         temperature zones, climate change is expected to increase the
frequency of climate-related shocks, such as floods and droughts in
                                                                                  who did report droughts. This may be because the rainfall variable
                                                                                  examined is an average over the entire growing season and, as a
                                                                                  result, may not capture a run of rainless days or other important
Sub-Saharan Africa. For farm households, an increase in the                       microclimate dynamics.
frequency of climate-related income shocks could lead not only to                       In order to cope with shocks, the survey asked whether or not
lower expected income, but also to higher income variance, which in               households sold livestock, borrowed from relatives or the bank,
turn can cause them to pursue costly risk-coping strategies and to fall           accepted aid, migrated to another area, sought off-farm employ-
below poverty trap thresholds. For this reason, it is important to                ment, or ate less. The majority of the households, however, said they
understand how a changing distribution of risk will lead to increased             did nothing in response to droughts, and a corresponding regression
vulnerability, not just decreased expected income.                                analysis finds the impact of droughts on income to be insignificant.
     This brief is based on a paper that uses farm households’                          This result is puzzling because, at the very least, households
responses to climate-related shocks in South Africa’s Limpopo River               must have used their available assets or reduced their consumption
Basin to gauge how farmers are likely to respond to future climate                in response to the decrease in income caused by climate-related
change shocks. The increased frequency and severity of droughts                   shocks. There are two explanations for this. First, there could be
associated with global warming may induce farmers to change their                 problems with the data. Income may not have been accurately
behavior to reduce their risk of negative impacts from future climate-            measured or the reports of no response could indicate that house-
related shocks. While it is difficult to predict farmers’ behavior and            holds reported many types of droughts, not just those that were
how it will affect welfare, coping strategies used in response to shocks          severe and required coping strategies. Treating inconsequential
today can be used to predict whether and how rural South Africans                 droughts in the same way as severe droughts would dilute the signal
will cope in the future. The study examines household responses to                of severe droughts on income. The second possible explanation is
droughts in 2005 and household vulnerability to future climate                    that households had already adapted to living in a drought-prone
change by assessing their probability of falling below an income                  environment. Droughts are common in South Africa and house-
threshold as a result of future climate-related shocks.                           holds may already use drought-resistant crop varieties or other
     Assessing household vulnerability is important because efficient             coping mechanisms that lessen their impact. This does not mean
social policy needs to go beyond poverty alleviation in the present to            the presence of droughts does not affect household wealth (that is,
prevent poverty in the future. A poverty reduction strategy that does             their asset position). The coping strategies used by farmers in the
not distinguish between transient and structural poverty leads to                 presence of drought could be very costly and a reduction in income
inefficient use of resources, in that it focuses on those who are                 variance could increase overall income by allowing farmers to spend
temporarily poor but may be able to escape poverty on their own, at               less time on low-yield, low-risk activities.
the expense of those who have a high probability of becoming
chronically poor.                                                                 eStImAtIon of VuLneRABILIty
                                                                                  Vulnerability is defined as the probability that a household will fall
ImpACt of dRoughtS on InCome                                                      below some income threshold at some future point in time. Using
Using cross-sectional data from a 2005 survey of nearly 800                       median household income (16,000 Rand, equivalent to US$2,508
farmers in 20 districts in South Africa’s Limpopo River Basin that                in 2005) and bottom quartile income (7,800 Rand) as the two
was augmented with rainfall data, the study finds that droughts                   thresholds, the study assesses which households are more vulnerable
were the most prevalent climate-related shock reported: 41                        to future climatic shocks. The results are plotted in four quadrants
instances of droughts were reported in 2005. No apparent                          in Figures 1 and 2. Households in the upper-left quadrant are
relationship was found, however, between those who would have                     currently below the income threshold and will likely continue to be
been expected to report droughts based on rainfall data and those                 below the threshold in the future. Households in the bottom-left


2033 K Street, NW • Washington, DC 20006-1002 USA • T. +1-202-862-5600 / Skype: IFPRIhomeoffice • F. +1-202-467-4439 • ifpri@cgiar.org   www.ifpri.org
quadrant are currently below the threshold but have characteristics                           the income threshold and are likely to remain so in the future.
suggesting they have less than a 50 percent chance of being below                                   The results suggest that most households are not vulnerable to
the threshold in the future. Those in the upper-right corner are                              falling below the 7,800 rand threshold (Figure 1). However, when
above the income threshold at present but are likely to fall below it                         the poverty line is set at 16,000 Rand (the second income quartile),
in the future, whereas those in the bottom-right quadrant are above                           vulnerability increases significantly (Figure 2).
                                                                                                      Further, the study finds that households that do not own
 Figure 1                Vulnerability to climate-related shocks based on the probability
                         of household income falling below 7,800 rand
                                                                                                farm animals are more vulnerable to falling below the poverty
                                                                                                threshold than other households. Similarly, households with more
                   1                                                                            than 10 members, and those that rely heavily on rainfed agricul-
                         Poor, likely to remain                     Nonpoor, likely to
                         poor next year                             become poor next            ture are more vulnerable to falling below the poverty threshold.
                                                                    year                        Households that do not have access to credit or that have no
                  0.8
                                                                                                knowledge of credit are vulnerable to falling below the poverty
                                                                                                thresholds, but they are less vulnerable than households that
  Vulnerability




                  0.6                                                                           succeeded in obtaining a loan.
                                                                                                      The study also finds that in South Africa’s Limpopo River
                  0.4
                                                                                                Basin, residents of Gauteng province are most vulnerable to
                                                                                                falling below the lower income threshold (7,800 Rand), whereas
                                                                              Nonpoor,          residents of Limpopo are the least vulnerable to falling below this
                  0.2                                                         likely to         threshold. Members of the siSwati and Setswana ethnic groups
                                                                              remain
                        Poor, likely not to                                   nonpoor           are the most vulnerable to falling below either poverty threshold.
                        be poor next year                                     next year

                   0                          5       10            15                   20     ImpLICAtIonS
                                                  Income (ln)                                   While the impact of droughts on income was found to be
                                                                                                statistically insignificant, and the majority of households said they
 Figure 2                Vulnerability to climate-related shocks based on the probability
                         of household income falling below 16,000 rand
                                                                                                “did nothing” in response to droughts, this does not necessarily
                                                                                                mean that farming households in South Africa’s Limpopo River
                   1                                                                            Basin are prepared for future changes in climate patterns. Climate
                         Poor, likely                                Nonpoor, likely            change is expected to bring a number of unexpected climate-
                         to remain                                   to become poor
                  0.8    poor next                                   next year
                                                                                                related shocks requiring new adaptive behavior to mitigate their
                         year                                                                   impacts. As a result, adaptation could be very costly, especially for
                                                                                                those least able to bear that cost.
  Vulnerability




                  0.6                                                                                 The vulnerability break-downs can help policymakers
                                                                                                identify households that are not currently poor but are at risk of
                  0.4                                                                           becoming poor in the future. Given that climate change will
                                                                                                involve a redistribution and intensification of risk, attention to
                                                                                                vulnerability is important. Given that predicting the actual effects
                  0.2                                                     Nonpoor, likely       of climate change is fraught with difficulties due to high levels of
                        Poor, likely not                                  to remain
                        to be poor next
                                                                          nonpoor next          uncertainty, identifying households that are vulnerable to climate
                        year
                                                                          year                  stresses will help to reduce future poverty.
                   0                          5       10            15                   20
                                                  Income (ln)                                   foR fuRtheR ReAdIng
     SouRce: Shewmake, S., Vulnerability and the Impact of Climate Change in                    Shewmake, S., Vulnerability and the Impact of Climate Change in South
     South Africa’s Limpopo River Basin, IFPRI Discussion Paper No. 804                            Africa’s Limpopo River Basin, IFPRI Discussion Paper No. 804, http://
     (Washington, DC: IFPRI, 2008).                                                                www.ifpri.org/pubs/dp/ifpridp00804.asp (Washington, DC:
                                                                                                   International Food Policy Research Institute, 2008).
S. Shewmake (shewmake@primal.ucdavis.edu) is a Ph.D. Candidate in the Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics at the University of California, Davis.


              This series of IFPRI Research Briefs is based on research supported by the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development, Germany, under the
              project “Food and Water Security under Global Change: Developing Adaptive Capacity with a Focus on Rural Africa,” which forms part of the CGIAR
              Challenge Program on Water and Food. Through collaboration with the Center for Environmental Economics and Policy in Africa, the Ethiopian Develop-
              ment Research Institute, the Ethiopian Economics Association, and the University of Hamburg, the project aims to provide policymakers and stakeholders in
              Ethiopia and South Africa with tools to better understand and analyze the consequences of global change—in particular climate change—and to form policy
              decisions that facilitate adaptation in these countries and beyond.


Financial Contributors and Partners
IFPRI’s research, capacity strengthening, and communications work is made possible by its financial contributors and partners. IFPRI receives its principal funding from
governments, private foundations, and international and regional organizations, most of which are members of the Consultative Group on International Agricultural
Research (CGIAR). IFPRI gratefully acknowledges the generous unrestricted funding from Australia, Canada, China, Finland, France, Germany, India, Ireland, Italy,
Japan, Netherlands, Norway, South Africa, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom, United States, and World Bank.

Printed on alternative-fiber paper manufactured from agriculturally sustainable resources that are processed chlorine-free (PCF).
Copyright © 2008 International Food Policy Research Institute. All rights reserved. Sections of this document may be reproduced without the permission of but with
acknowledgment to IFPRI. Contact ifpri-copyright@cgiar.org for permission to reprint.
INTERNATIONAL FOOD                                                                             Center for Environmental Economics
                POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE                                                                      and Policy in Africa
                sustainable solutions for ending hunger and poverty

                Supported by the CGIAR


                                                                                                                  IFPRI Research Brief                15–3
HOW CAN AFRICAN AGRICULTURE ADAPT TO CLIMATE CHANGE? INSIGHTS FROM ETHIOPIA AND SOUTH AFRICA

Mapping the South African Farming Sector’s Vulnerability
to Climate Change and Variability
A Subnational Assessment
Glwadys Aymone Gbetibouo and Claudia Ringler


I   n southern Africa, by the middle of the 21st century climate change
    is expected to cause temperature increases of 1–3°C, broad summer
rainfall reductions of 5–10 percent, and an increase in the incidence of
                                                                                       The most sensitive provinces—mainly due to their high propor-
                                                                                  tion of smallholder subsistence farmers—are the Eastern Cape,
                                                                                  KwaZulu-Natal, and Limpopo. Smallholder farmers constitute
both droughts and floods. Consequently, climate change has significant            70 percent of the farming population in the Eastern Cape, KwaZulu-
potential to negatively affect crop production in South Africa, and in            Natal, Mpumalanga, and the North West province, and inappropriate
turn the well-being of the country’s farmers.                                     land uses in these regions have severely degraded land and reduced
      This brief is based on a study that examines the level of vulner-           production capacity. The Eastern Cape and Limpopo provinces have
ability to climate change in South Africa’s farming sector by                     the highest shares of agricultural GDP, the lowest average farm-asset
developing a nationwide provincial-level vulnerability profile.                   values, the lowest literacy rates, and the highest unemployment rates.
Particular attention is paid to the underlying socioeconomic and                       The least-sensitive provinces are the Western Cape, Gauteng, and
institutional factors that determine how farmers respond to and cope              Free State. A common feature of these regions is that they have a low
with climate hazards.                                                             percentage of subsistence farmers and the least-populated rural areas.
                                                                                  Gauteng and the Western Cape have greater infrastructure develop-
CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK                                                              ment, high levels of literacy, and lower unemployment rates. The
In this study, vulnerability to climate change is conceptualized as a             Western Cape is the least sensitive province, largely due to a high
function of three factors: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity.          degree of crop diversification, low levels of land degradation, and high
Exposure can be interpreted as the direct danger (the stressor) together          reliance on irrigation.
with the nature and extent of changes in a region’s climate variables                  Combining the indicators for sensitivity and exposure,
(temperature, precipitation, and extreme weather events). Sensitivity             KwaZulu-Natal, Limpopo, and the Eastern Cape are predicted to
describes the human–environmental conditions that exacerbate or                   suffer the largest impacts of climate change and variability. With the
ameliorate the hazard, or trigger an impact. Exposure and sensitivity             exception of Limpopo, these provinces have both the largest exposure
are intrinsically linked and mutually influence potential impacts.
Adaptive capacity represents the potential to implement adaptation                              Figure 1       Vulnerability framework
measures in efforts to avert potential impacts (Figure 1). Several
indicators representing these three components were selected to
facilitate the study’s examination of vulnerability in South Africa. The                  EXPOSURE                          ADAPTIVE CAPACITY
selected indicators—drawn from an extensive review of the litera-                                                                Determinants:
                                                                                         Characteristics:
ture—represent both the biophysical conditions of the farming                         Frequency, magnitude,                 Coping strategies, social
regions and the socioeconomic conditions of the farmers.                                    duration                        networks, resource use,
                                                                                                                             diversity, and flexibility
RESULTS OF VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
Analysis of vulnerability indicators shows that provinces in South
Africa demonstrate vast diversity in environmental and socioeconomic                        IMPACTS
conditions. The coastal provinces of the Eastern Cape, KwaZulu-                                                                VULNERABILITY
Natal, and the Western Cape exhibit the highest frequency of extreme
events (droughts and floods) over the past century, whereas the desert
                                                                                          SENSITIVITY
region of the Northern Cape and the steppe arid regions of the North
West and Free State provinces exhibit the lowest frequency. The                         Characteristics:                       ADAPTATION
highest incremental temperature increase by 2050 is found in the                       Assets, entitlements,                 (AND MITIGATION)
                                                                                      economic structures,                      RESPONSES
desert region of the Northern Cape and the steppe arid regions of Free
                                                                                          human capital
State and Mpumalanga, and rainfall changes are predicted to be
greatest in the Gauteng and North West provinces.

2033 K Street, NW • Washington, DC 20006-1002 USA • T. +1-202-862-5600 / Skype: IFPRIhomeoffice • F. +1-202-467-4439 • ifpri@cgiar.org     www.ifpri.org
and the highest sensitivity. The Mpumalanga and North                 Figure 2 Vulnerability ranking in South Africa by province
West provinces fall within the mid range of vulnerability
based on these two indicators, whereas the Northern                     4
Cape, Western Cape, Free State, and Gauteng have the                                                           Limpopo
lowest risk of negative impacts because of the prevalence                 Eastern
                                                                        3
                                                                           Cape                      KwaZulu-
of commercial farming and the lack of land degradation.                                                 Natal
      Indicators of adaptive capacity differ considerably               2
across the nine provinces. Capacity is greatest in the                                                                             North
                                                                                                                                    West




                                                                             Vulnerability index
Western Cape due to the combined effects of well-                       1
                                                                                    Free                              Mpumalanga           Northern Western
developed infrastructure, high literacy rates and income
                                                                                    State Gauteng                                           Cape        Cape
levels, low unemployment rates and HIV prevalence,                      0
and relatively high capital wealth. Gauteng and the
Northern Cape fall within the mid-range for this                       -1
indicator, whereas adaptive capacity is low in KwaZulu-
Natal, the Eastern Cape, Free State, Limpopo, and                      -2
North West due to high dependence on agriculture,
high unemployment rates and HIV prevalence, and low                    -3
levels infrastructure development.
      Assessing results based on all three components of               -4
vulnerability, Limpopo, the Eastern Cape and KwaZulu-
Natal are the most vulnerable provinces; Mpumalanga,                   -5
the North West, Gauteng, and the Northern Cape fall
within the mid range of vulnerability; and the Western
                                                                                    In light of large spatial differences in vulnerability, policymakers
Cape has the lowest level of vulnerability. The vulnerability of Free
                                                                               should tailor policies to local conditions. In highly vulnerable regions,
State is considered indeterminate because it exhibits both low
                                                                               such as Limpopo, KwaZulu-Natal, and the Eastern Cape, policy-
exposure and low adaptive capacity.
                                                                               makers should enact measures (1) to support the effective
      Figure 2 presents the results of a quantitative vulnerability index
                                                                               management of environmental resources (for example, soil, vegetation,
based on 19 indicators. As expected, the Western Cape and Gauteng
                                                                               and water resources); (2) to promote increased market participation,
have low vulnerability scores; the Free State, Northern Cape,
                                                                               especially within the large subsistence-farming sector; (3) to stimulate
Mpumalanga, and North West provinces fall within the mid range of
                                                                               both agricultural intensification and livelihood diversification away
vulnerability; and the most vulnerable provinces are the Eastern
                                                                               from risky agriculture; and (4) to enact social programs and spending
Cape, KwaZulu-Natal and Limpopo.
                                                                               on health, education, and welfare to help maintain and augment both
POLICY IMPLICATIONS                                                            physical and intangible human capital. Policymakers should also
In examining vulnerability at the province level, caution must be              invest in rural infrastructure development. In areas of high exposure,
taken given enormous heterogeneity in household-level resource                 such as the coastal zones, priority should be given to the development
access, poverty levels, and adaptive capacity. Ideally, future household-      of accurate early warning systems, as well as appropriate relief
level research will facilitate improved targeting of policies to reduce        programs and agricultural insurance.
climate change vulnerability. That said, the results of this study show
that the provinces deemed most vulnerable to the effects of climate
                                                                               FOR FURTHER READING
change and variability do not always equate with the most vulnerable
populations. Rather, results suggest that the overall vulnerability of         Gbetibouo, G.A. and C. Ringler. Mapping South African farming sector
the South African farming sector is characterized by a combination of                vulnerability to climate change and variability: A subnational assessment.
medium-level exposure risk coupled with medium to high levels of                     IFPRI Discussion Paper No. 885 (Washington, DC: International
                                                                                     Food Policy Research Institute, 2009).
social vulnerability.
Glwadys Aymone Gbetibouo (gbetibouo@yahoo.fr) is a PhD student at the Center for Environmental Economics and Policy Analysis (CEEPA) of the University of
Pretoria, South Africa. Claudia Ringler (c.ringler@cgiar.org) is a senior research fellow in the Environment and Production Technology Division (EPTD) of the
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Washington, DC.


     This series of IFPRI Research Briefs is based on research supported by the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development, Germany, under the
     project “Food and Water Security under Global Change: Developing Adaptive Capacity with a Focus on Rural Africa,” which forms part of the CGIAR
     Challenge Program on Water and Food. Through collaboration with the Center for Environmental Economics and Policy in Africa, the Ethiopian Develop-
     ment Research Institute, the Ethiopian Economics Association, and the University of Hamburg, the project aims to provide policymakers and stakeholders in
     Ethiopia and South Africa with tools to better understand and analyze the consequences of global change—in particular climate change—and to form policy
     decisions that facilitate adaptation in these countries and beyond.


Financial Contributors and Partners
IFPRI’s research, capacity strengthening, and communications work is made possible by its financial contributors and partners. IFPRI receives its principal funding from
governments, private foundations, and international and regional organizations, most of which are members of the Consultative Group on International Agricultural
Research (CGIAR). IFPRI gratefully acknowledges the generous unrestricted funding from Australia, Canada, China, Finland, France, Germany, India, Ireland, Italy,
Japan, Netherlands, Norway, South Africa, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom, United States, and World Bank.

Printed on alternative-fiber paper manufactured from agriculturally sustainable resources that are processed chlorine-free (PCF).
Copyright © 2009 International Food Policy Research Institute. All rights reserved. Sections of this document may be reproduced without the permission of but with
acknowledgment to IFPRI. Contact ifpri-copyright@cgiar.org for permission to reprint.
INTERNATIONAL FOOD
                POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE                                                                Ethiopia Development Research Institute
                sustainable solutions for ending hunger and poverty

                Supported by the CGIAR


                                                                                                                  IFPRI Research Brief        15–4
HOW CAN AFRICAN AGRICULTURE ADAPT TO CLIMATE CHANGE? INSIGHTS FROM ETHIOPIA AND SOUTH AFRICA

Assessing Household Vulnerability to Climate Change
The Case of Farmers in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia
Temesgen T. Deressa, Rashid M. Hassan, and Claudia Ringler


E     thiopia remains one of the least-developed countries in the
      world: 50 percent of the population lives in abject poverty,
and average life expectancy is only 43 years. Agriculture—the
                                                                                  poverty line of US$1.25 per day, the average income of the
                                                                                  surveyed households, and arbitrary values above and below the
                                                                                  average income of the surveyed households.
main sector of the Ethiopian economy—employs about 80 percent                           Results for income thresholds of US$0.3 and US$2 per day
of the population and is dominated by small-scale, mixed crop and                 are provided in Figures 1 and 2, respectively. The x-axis shows
livestock production with very low productivity, which can be                     current income, while the y-axis shows estimates of vulnerability.
attributed to obsolete farming techniques; soil degradation caused                Each figure is divided into four quadrants. Farm households in the
by overgrazing and deforestation; poor complementary services,                    upper left quadrant fall below the relevant poverty line and are
such as extension, credit, markets, and infrastructure; and                       likely to remain there in the future; those in the bottom left
frequent droughts and floods. Climate change is expected to                       quadrant fall below the poverty threshold today but have charac-
increase the frequency, intensity, and spatial coverage of droughts               teristics suggesting less than a 50 percent likelihood of their
and floods. Assessing Ethiopian farmers’ vulnerability to climate                 remaining there in the future; those in the upper right quadrant
change can help identify groups in particular need of support                     are currently above the specified income threshold but are likely to
under a changing climate. This brief is based on a study that                     fall below it in the future; and those in the bottom left quadrant
measures the vulnerability of farmers to climatic extremes, such as               are currently above the income threshold and are likely to remain
droughts, floods, and hailstorms.                                                 there in the future.
                                                                                        Unsurprisingly, farmers’ vulnerability to climate shocks is
THE IMPACT OF DROUGHT ON HOUSEHOLDS                                               highly sensitive to the choice of poverty threshold. The number of
                                                                                  households that are considered poor today and likely to remain
The study found that of the 1,000 households surveyed across 5
                                                                                  poor in the future increases as the income level used to determine
regional states and 20 districts of Ethiopia, 31 percent reported
                                                                                  the poverty threshold increases. When the poverty line is fixed at
droughts, 12 percent reported floods, and 18 percent reported
                                                                                  an income level of US$2 per day, 99 percent of farmers are
hailstorms over the previous five years. These shocks resulted in a
                                                                                  considered vulnerable and, hence, fall into the upper right
variety of reported losses, primarily in the form of crop yield
                                                                                  quadrant (Figure 1). Similarly, when the poverty line is reduced to
declines and asset/income losses. The majority of farmers did
                                                                                  US$1.50 and to US$1.25 per day, most households remain poor
nothing in response to these shocks, mainly due to abject poverty.
                                                                                  and vulnerable today, but the number of nonvulnerable house-
Among those farmers who did respond, the most common coping
                                                                                  holds increases slightly. When the poverty threshold is set at a
strategy was to sell livestock, suggesting that—in addition to                    daily minimum income of US$0.30, only 12 percent of farmers
providing animal draft power and manure—livestock also serves                     are considered vulnerable to climate extremes (Figure 2). At this
as an asset and hence provides insurance against shocks. Other                    threshold, most households fall within the bottom left quadrant,
important coping strategies reported were borrowing from                          indicating that they are not considered poor and are likely to
relatives, reducing food consumption, depending on food aid and                   remain nonpoor in the future.
food-for-work programs, and seeking off-farm employment.                                Analysis of vulnerability across different agroecological zones
                                                                                  indicates that farmers in the warm, semi-arid Kola zone are most
ESTIMATION OF VULNERABILITY                                                       vulnerable to extreme climatic events: of all the households
Vulnerability is defined as the probability that climate shocks will              surveyed in Kola, 99 percent are either already vulnerable or will
shift household income below a given minimum level (such as a                     become vulnerable in the future. Farmers in the cool, subhumid
poverty line) or cause income levels to remain below the minimum                  Weynadega zone and the cool, humid Dega zone are also highly
level if the household is already poor. To analyze the sensitivity of             vulnerable to future climate shocks: 94 and 89 percent, respectively,
vulnerability to a chosen threshold, the study examined different                 are considered vulnerable based on the US$1.25 per day poverty
minimum income levels/poverty lines, such as the international                    line. While these results are not representative at the regional level,


2033 K Street, NW • Washington, DC 20006-1002 USA • T. +1-202-862-5600 / Skype: IFPRIhomeoffice • F. +1-202-467-4439 • ifpri@cgiar.org   www.ifpri.org
Figure 1 Vulnerability to climate shocks based on an income                             they do show that the districts surveyed in Beneshangul Gumuz
            threshold of US$2 per day or 6,570 Ethiopian Birr per year                     and the Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples Region are
                                                                                           most vulnerable under all of the poverty lines tested, whereas the
                    1
                                                                                           districts surveyed in Oromia are the least vulnerable.
                    .9



                                                                                           CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS
   Vulnerability




                                                                                           The results of this study indicate an inverse relationship between
                    .8




                                                                                           the incomes of farm households and their level of vulnerability to
                                                                                           climate extremes. Thus, policy interventions under climate change
                    .7




                                                                                           should focus on strengthening public and household-level risk
                                                                                           management using both mitigation and adaptation strategies to
                    .6




                                                                                           reduce the negative impacts of climate change. Household-level
                                                                                           mitigation strategies should include practices that encourage crop
                    .5




                                                                                           and livestock diversification, the use of drought-tolerant crop
                             4                  6             8                10          varieties and livestock species, mixed crop and livestock produc-
                                                     Income (Ln)                           tion, and membership in rotating credit groups. Policies that
                                                                                           support household-level adaptation strategies should encourage
   Figure 2                  Vulnerability to climate shocks based on an income
                                                                                           income generation and asset holding, both of which provide
                             threshold of US$0.30 per day or 900 Ethiopian Birr per year
                                                                                           households with a financial buffer against harsh climatic events.
                                                                                                Public risk mitigation might include strategies such as water
                   1




                                                                                           harvesting, resource conservation and management, irrigation
                                                                                           development, voluntary resettlement programs, targeted extension
                   .8




                                                                                           service packages (focusing on households or agroecological zones),
   Vulnerability




                                                                                           targeted safety net programs, weather-indexed drought insurance,
                   .6




                                                                                           and the development of well-coordinated early warning systems.
                                                                                           Important public adaptation strategies include the efficient
                   .4




                                                                                           administration of foreign emergency relief and effective food-for-
                                                                                           work programs.
                   .2




                                                                                           FOR FURTHER READING
                                                                                           Deressa, T. T., R. M. Hassan, and C. Ringler. Assessing Household
                   0




                                                                                                Vulnerability to Climate Change: The Case of Farmers in the Nile
                         4                  6                8                10
                                                    Income(Ln)                                  Basin of Ethiopia. IFPRI Discussion Paper No. 935 (Washington,
                                                                                                DC: International Food Policy Research Institute, 2009).




Temesgen T. Deressa (tderessa@yahoo.com) is a PhD student at the Centre for Environmental Economics and Policy for Africa (CEEPA), University of Pretoria. Rashid
M. Hassan (rashid.hassan@up.ac.za) is the director of CEEPA. Claudia Ringler (c.ringler@cgiar.org) is a senior research fellow at the International Food Policy Research
Institute, Washington, DC.


       This series of IFPRI Research Briefs is based on research supported by the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development, Germany, under the
       project “Food and Water Security under Global Change: Developing Adaptive Capacity with a Focus on Rural Africa,” which forms part of the CGIAR
       Challenge Program on Water and Food. Through collaboration with the Center for Environmental Economics and Policy in Africa, the Ethiopian Develop-
       ment Research Institute, the Ethiopian Economics Association, and the University of Hamburg, the project aims to provide policymakers and stakeholders in
       Ethiopia and South Africa with tools to better understand and analyze the consequences of global change—in particular climate change—and to form policy
       decisions that facilitate adaptation in these countries and beyond.


Financial Contributors and Partners
IFPRI’s research, capacity strengthening, and communications work is made possible by its financial contributors and partners. IFPRI receives its principal funding from
governments, private foundations, and international and regional organizations, most of which are members of the Consultative Group on International Agricultural
Research (CGIAR). IFPRI gratefully acknowledges the generous unrestricted funding from Australia, Canada, China, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, India,
Ireland, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Norway, the Philippines, South Africa, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, the United States, and the World Bank.

Printed on alternative-fiber paper manufactured from agriculturally sustainable resources that are processed chlorine-free (PCF).
Copyright © 2011 International Food Policy Research Institute. All rights reserved. Sections of this document may be reproduced without the permission of but with
acknowledgment to IFPRI. Contact ifpri-copyright@cgiar.org for permission to reprint.
INTERNATIONAL FOOD
                POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE                                                                Ethiopia Development Research Institute
                sustainable solutions for ending hunger and poverty

                Supported by the CGIAR


                                                                                                                  IFPRI Research Brief        15–5
HOW CAN AFRICAN AGRICULTURE ADAPT TO CLIMATE CHANGE? INSIGHTS FROM ETHIOPIA AND SOUTH AFRICA

Measuring Ethiopian Farmers’ Vulnerability to Climate
Change Across Regional States
Temesgen T. Deressa, Rashid M. Hassan, and Claudia Ringler


E     thiopia’s agricultural sector, which is dominated by small-
      scale, mixed crop, and livestock farming, is the mainstay of
the country’s economy. It constitutes more than half the nation’s
                                                                                  to resources. For instance, all-weather roads facilitate the distribution
                                                                                  of necessary inputs to farmers and increase access to markets. Health
                                                                                  services enable the provision of preventive treatments for diseases
gross domestic product (GDP), generates more than 85 percent of                   associated with climatic change, such as malaria, and the availability
the foreign exchange earnings, and employs about 80 percent of                    of microfinance supports the adoption of technology packages.
the population. Ethiopia’s dependence on agriculture makes the                         Irrigation potential and literacy rates are important factors
country particularly vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate                 contributing to adaptive capacity. Locations with more potentially
change on crop and livestock production.                                          irrigable land can adapt to climate change through improved water
     This brief is based on a paper that analyzes the vulnerability of            control. Regions with a higher literacy rate—a proxy for the level
Ethiopian farmers to climate change by creating a vulnerability index             of education—are considered to have greater adaptive capacity.
and comparing vulnerability indicators across regions. A regional                      Generally, increased frequency of droughts and floods
vulnerability index can assist in identifying the areas of Ethiopia that          negatively affects agricultural production, demonstrating agricul-
are most vulnerable to climate change and guide policymakers in                   ture’s sensitivity to climate change. Finally, a region’s exposure to
determining where investments in adaptation may be most effective                 climate change is represented by the predicted change in tempera-
in reducing the future adverse effects of climate change.                         ture and rainfall by 2050.


VulnERAbility                                                                     indiCAtoRS oF VulnERAbility ACRoSS
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change                        EthiopiA’S AdMiniStRAtiVE REgionS
(IPCC), a region’s vulnerability to climate change depends on its                 The study examined indicators of vulnerability across 7 of the 11
adaptive capacity, sensitivity, and exposure to changing climatic                 regions of Ethiopia: Afar; Amhara; Beneshangul Gumuz; Oromia;
patterns. Adaptive capacity describes the ability of a system to                  the Southern Nations, Nationalities, and People’s Region
adjust to actual or expected climate impacts or to cope with the                  (SNNPR); Somali; and Tigray. Data were not available for the
consequences of climate change. Sensitivity is the degree to which                Gambella region; and the urban centers of Addis Ababa, Dire
a system is affected—whether positively or negatively—by extreme                  Dawa, and Harari were excluded.
weather conditions and associated climatic variations. Exposure                        Regarding the indicators of wealth across the study regions,
refers to the degree to which a system is exposed to climate change               farmers living in the Amhara and Oromia regions have better
and the nature of the climate stimulus.                                           quality housing compared with other regions. However, the share
      The indicators chosen to reflect adaptive capacity include                  of people owning a radio is highest in Afar and lowest in Amhara.
household wealth, access to and use of technology, availability of                Livestock ownership is highest in Somali, given that most of the
infrastructure and institutions, potential for irrigation, and literacy           region’s farmers are nomads whose livelihoods depend on live-
rates. Wealth enables communities to absorb and recover from                      stock. Overall, few farmers in Ethiopia have access to
losses more quickly. The livestock owned (number of heads), key                   nonagricultural income, gifts, and remittances.
assets owned (radios, refrigerators, and so on), and quality of                        Among the regions studied, farmers in SNNPR have the
residential homes are commonly used as indicators of wealth in                    greatest access to technology, pesticides, fertilizers, and improved
rural African communities. Proximity to agricultural input supplies               seeds, while farmers in the Somali and Afar regions have the
is identified as an indicator of technology. For instance, drought-               lowest access.
tolerant or early maturing varieties of crops generally require access                 The Afar region has the highest proportion of all-weather
to complementary inputs, such as fertilizers and pesticides.                      roads and health services, whereas Somali has the lowest propor-
      Well-developed institutions and infrastructure also play                    tion of health services, and Amhara has the lowest proportion of
important roles in adapting to climate change by facilitating access              all-weather roads. Market access is highest in SNNPR and lowest


2033 K Street, NW • Washington, DC 20006-1002 USA • T. +1-202-862-5600 / Skype: IFPRIhomeoffice • F. +1-202-467-4439 • ifpri@cgiar.org   www.ifpri.org
in Somali and Amhara. Primary and secondary schools are                             Figure 1 Vulnerability indicators of seven regional states in ethiopia
equally distributed across the regions except for Somali,
which has proportionally fewer schools. Telephone service is
most available in rural Afar and least available in
Beneshangul Gumuz. Tigray has the highest proportion of                                     0.80                                       SNNPR
microfinance and veterinary services, whereas Somali has                                    0.60
                                                                                                                Beneshangul Gumuz
the lowest proportion of both these services. Irrigation                                    0.40
potential and literacy rates are highest in SNNPR and                                       0.20
                                                                                                     Afar   Amhara            Oromia           Somali   Tigray
Tigray and lowest in Afar and Somali.                                                       0.00
     Over the past century, Amhara has suffered most from                                  -0.20
droughts and floods, with Oromia and Somali following                                      -0.40
closely behind, whereas Beneshangul Gumuz and Afar have                                    -0.60
experienced the lowest number of droughts and floods. The                                  -0.80
predicted increase in temperature by 2050 is greatest for                                  -1.00
Afar and Tigray and lowest for SNPPR, and the change in                                    -1.20
precipitation is highest for Somali and lowest for SNPPR.
                                                                                           -1.40


VulnERAbility to CliMAtE ChAngE                                                     SouRce: Deressa, T. T., R. M. Hassan, and C. Ringler, Measuring Vulnerability of
by REgion                                                                           Ethiopian Farmers to Climate Change across Regional States, IFPRI Discussion Paper
                                                                                    (Washington, DC: IFPRI, 2008 forthcoming).
The study calculated vulnerability to climate change by                             Note: Positive values indicate low vulnerability. Indexes are constructed using
region as the net effect of sensitivity, exposure, and adaptive                     the principal component analysis method.
capacity. Results indicate that Afar, Somali, Oromia, and
Tigray are relatively more vulnerable to climate change than
the other regions. The vulnerability of Afar and Somali is                                 correlated with poverty. Integrated rural development schemes
attributed to their low level of rural service provision and infra-                        aimed at alleviating poverty would increase the country’s capacity
structure development. Tigray and Oromia’s vulnerability to                                to adapt to climate change. Policymakers would do well to
climate change can be attributed to the regions’ higher frequencies                        prioritize poverty alleviation in the least-developed regions of the
of droughts and floods, lower access to technology, fewer institu-                         country, Afar and Somali, and the relatively more populated
tions, and lack of infrastructure. SNNPR’s lower vulnerability is                          regions of Oromia and Tigray.
associated with the region’s relatively greater access to technology                            Likewise, investing in irrigation in areas with high potential,
and markets, larger irrigation potential, and higher literacy rate.                        such as in SNNPR, could promote adaptation to climate change.
                                                                                           Strengthening the ongoing micro-level adaptation programs
                                                                                           implemented by governmental and nongovernmental organizations,
poliCy iMpliCAtionS
While the results of the study identify the regions of Ethiopia most                       such as water harvesting and other natural resource conservation
vulnerable to climate change, each region covers a large area with                         programs, can also boost the adaptive capacities of farmers.
diverse socioeconomic and environmental characteristics. Future
research should focus on uncovering localized vulnerability.                               FoR FuRthER REAding
Nonetheless, the findings from the regional study can help identify                        Deressa, T. T., R. M. Hassan, and C. Ringler, Measuring Ethiopian
policies that may help stabilize national and regional food produc-                             Farmers’ Vulnerability to Climate Change Across Regional States,
tion in the face of the anticipated adverse effects of climate change.                          IFPRI Discussion Paper No. 806, http://www.ifpri.org/pubs/dp/
     In general, Ethiopia’s vulnerability to climate change is highly                           ifpridp00806.asp (Washington, DC: IFPRI, 2008).

t. t. deressa (tderessa@yahoo.com) is a PhD student at the Centre for Environmental Economics and Policy for Africa (CEEPA), University of Pretoria. R. M. hassan
(rashid.hassan@up.ac.za) is director of CEEPA. C. Ringler (c.ringler@cgiar.org) is a senior research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute, Washing-
ton, DC.


     This series of IFPRI Research Briefs is based on research supported by the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development, Germany, under the
     project “Food and Water Security under Global Change: Developing Adaptive Capacity with a Focus on Rural Africa,” which forms part of the CGIAR
     Challenge Program on Water and Food. Through collaboration with the Center for Environmental Economics and Policy in Africa, the Ethiopian Develop-
     ment Research Institute, the Ethiopian Economics Association, and the University of Hamburg, the project aims to provide policymakers and stakeholders in
     Ethiopia and South Africa with tools to better understand and analyze the consequences of global change—in particular climate change—and to form policy
     decisions that facilitate adaptation in these countries and beyond.


Financial Contributors and Partners
IFPRI’s research, capacity strengthening, and communications work is made possible by its financial contributors and partners. IFPRI receives its principal funding from
governments, private foundations, and international and regional organizations, most of which are members of the Consultative Group on International Agricultural
Research (CGIAR). IFPRI gratefully acknowledges the generous unrestricted funding from Australia, Canada, China, Finland, France, Germany, India, Ireland, Italy,
Japan, Netherlands, Norway, South Africa, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom, United States, and World Bank.

Printed on alternative-fiber paper manufactured from agriculturally sustainable resources that are processed chlorine-free (PCF).
Copyright © 2008 International Food Policy Research Institute. All rights reserved. Sections of this document may be reproduced without the permission of but with
acknowledgment to IFPRI. Contact ifpri-copyright@cgiar.org for permission to reprint.
INTERNATIONAL FOOD
                POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE                                                                                   ETHIOPIAN ECONOMIC
                sustainable solutions for ending hunger and poverty
                                                                                                                            ASSOCIATION
                Supported by the CGIAR


                                                                                                                  IFPRI Research Brief        15–6
HOW CAN AFRICAN AGRICULTURE ADAPT TO CLIMATE CHANGE? INSIGHTS FROM ETHIOPIA AND SOUTH AFRICA

Perceptions of Stakeholders on Climate Change
and Adaptation Strategies in Ethiopia
Assefa Admassie, Berhanu Adenew, and Abebe Tadege


T     he potential adverse effects of climate change on Ethiopia’s
      agricultural sector are a major concern, particularly given the
country’s dependence on agricultural production. Securing
                                                                                  increase the country’s frequency of both droughts and floods. The
                                                                                  stakeholder forums and NAPA’s technical working groups sought
                                                                                  participants’ perceptions of the impacts of changing climatic
Ethiopia’s economic and social well-being in the face of climate                  conditions. According to participants, although both developed and
change requires that policymakers and stakeholders work together                  developing countries are affected by climate change, developing
to integrate climate change adaptation into the country’s develop-                countries face greater challenges in overcoming its adverse conse-
ment process. Three stakeholder discussion forums held in 2006                    quences. Because Ethiopia is one of the least developed countries in
in Addis Ababa, Awassa, and Bahir Dar as part of the project,                     the world, with a per capita income of less than US$130 in 2006,
“Food and Water Security under Global Change: Developing                          workshop participants agreed that the country faces considerable
Adaptive Capacity with a Focus on Rural Africa,” were attended                    hurdles in coping with the adverse impacts of long-term climate
by representatives of the government, civil society, business sector,             change. Low economic development, inadequate infrastructure, and
and local communities. The forums elicited information to enable                  lack of institutional capacity all contribute to the country’s vulner-
policymakers to make more informed decisions related to climate                   ability to the adverse impacts of climate change.
change adaptation.                                                                     In addition, Ethiopia’s economy is heavily dependent on
     The forums complemented ongoing efforts to develop the                       agriculture and faces increasing population growth. Ethiopia’s
National Adaptation Program of Action (NAPA), which is                            agricultural sector contributes 47 percent of the country’s gross
overseen by a steering committee representing government,                         national product and more than 80 percent of its exports. It also
nongovernment, academic, and research institutions. Under                         employs about 85 percent of the country’s population of more than
NAPA, multidisciplinary technical working groups have been                        76 million people (noting that Ethiopia is the third-most populous
formed to assess the country’s vulnerability to the adverse conse-                country in Africa after Nigeria and Egypt). With a current growth
quences of climate change, gauge current adaptation efforts, and                  rate of about 2.8 percent per year, Ethiopia’s population is expected
identify ways in which public agencies could assist in minimizing                 to reach 129 million by 2030. Workshop participants emphasized
the adverse impacts of climate change. In addition, two national                  that Ethiopia’s low level of economic development combined with its
and eight regional workshops were conducted involving nearly 500                  heavy dependence on agriculture and high population growth rate
participants with various areas of expertise. Like the stakeholder                make the country particularly susceptible to the adverse effects of
forums, the workshops solicited information to create greater                     climate change. Negative climatic impacts on crop and livestock
awareness of climate change, assess the extent of the area’s                      production could result in a nationwide food shortage and greatly
vulnerability, and help identify adaptation options.                              hinder the economy. If appropriate steps are not taken, workshop
     This brief is based on a paper that presents findings from the               participants felt that food insecurity, deepened poverty, and
stakeholder discussion forums, as well as NAPA’s technical                        increased incidence of disease, such as malaria and yellow fever,
working groups and workshops. These meetings explored stake-                      would be likely consequences.
holders’ perceptions of vulnerability to climate change and                            A better understanding of the local dimensions of vulnerability is
considered ways in which adaptation measures could be further                     therefore essential to develop appropriate adaptation measures that
integrated into Ethiopia’s development process.                                   will mitigate these adverse consequences. Accordingly, the stakeholder
                                                                                  forums solicited input on those who are thought to be most vulner-
                                                                                  able, based on economic, social, and environmental factors.
VulnErAbiliTy To ThE AdVErSE                                                           The farming community was identified as the most vulnerable
ConSEquEnCES of ClimATE ChAngE                                                    because of its dependence on agricultural production for its liveli-
According to the National Meteorological Agency, long-term                        hood. Within the farming community, small-scale, rainfed
climate change in Ethiopia is associated with changes in precipita-               subsistence farmers as well as pastoralists were identified as more
tion patterns, rainfall variability, and temperature, which could                 vulnerable to changing climatic conditions than others. In addition,


2033 K Street, NW • Washington, DC 20006-1002 USA • T. +1-202-862-5600 / Skype: IFPRIhomeoffice • F. +1-202-467-4439 • ifpri@cgiar.org   www.ifpri.org
farm households without assets and financial resources were                                adaptive capacity. In addition, workshop participants suggested
identified as especially vulnerable, as their limited resources restrict                   implementing improved water resource development, land manage-
them from easily adapting to the changing climate.                                         ment, food security, health, and education programs. There is also
     Participants noted that throughout society those who are                              a need to expand nonagricultural employment opportunities and
marginalized based on their sex, age, education, ethnicity, or                             provide skills training, particularly in rural areas.
economic status are more vulnerable to negative climate change                                  Another recommendation is greater investment in data
impacts than others. Female-headed households in Ethiopia, for                             collection and research on climate change and extreme weather
instance, were identified as particularly vulnerable to climate change                     conditions in Ethiopia. Environmental and drought monitoring
given greater constraints to adaptation than male-headed house-                            systems should be introduced at national and regional levels to
holds. Likewise, participants argued that those with low levels of                         monitor climate changes. Such systems would provide early
education are more vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate                            warnings on predicted weather extremes, enabling stakeholders to
change because they are less likely to be aware of long-term climate                       take corrective measures in advance to minimize potential
change and tend to be more averse to the risks associated with some                        damages. Additionally, in-depth studies on vulnerability and
adaption measures.                                                                         adaptation should continue.
     In addition, certain regions of the country were identified as                             Participants also recommended expanding awareness of global
being more susceptible to the negative effects of changing climatic                        warming and its potential impacts by providing reliable and
conditions. In particular, participants identified those in the arid,                      up-to-date information to the public. Information about the
semi-arid, and dry subhumid lowlands as being more vulnerable to                           appropriate adaptive measures should be made available to the
the adverse effects of climate change than those living in the                             entire national community. As part of this effort, communication
highlands. Lowland households with fewer and less diversified assets                       between policymakers, nongovernmental organizations, research
than highland households are less able to invest in adaptation                             institutions, and the media, among other actors, should be
measures and to meet their basic needs when faced with the adverse                         strengthened in order to ensure accurate information is available
consequences of climate change. In addition, the lowlands have                             and widely disseminated.
become increasingly depleted and, as a result, many pastoralists                                Finally, workshop participants recommended that all stake-
from the lowlands have migrated to highland areas, leading to social                       holders be included in the development process. When considering
conflicts over land.
                                                                                           measures to reduce vulnerability to the adverse effects of climate
                                                                                           change, government, civil society, the private sector, and local
AdAPTATion mEASurES And PoliCy                                                             communities should all participate in the discussion. In particular,
rECommEndATionS                                                                            policymakers should be sure to draw on knowledge and experience
Workshop participants identified the adaptation measures                                   from local communities. By overlooking local knowledge, policies
communities adopt when confronted with climate-related shocks.                             can constrain rather than enhance the adaptive capacity of
These include diversification of livelihood sources, migration,                            communities. Furthermore, knowledge of the environment is
participation in nonfarm activities, sale of assets, settlement and                        passed down through generations of experience of working on the
resettlement activities, and the adoption of improved water                                land and, thus, local farm communities offer invaluable informa-
management systems. To further mitigate the adverse effects of                             tion regarding adaptation to changing climatic conditions that
climate change, participants considered ways in which adaptation                           would not likely be acquired through other channels.
measures could be better integrated into Ethiopia’s development
process and offered policy recommendations.                                                for furThEr rEAding
     As part of the development process, participants recom-                               Admassie, A., and B. Adenew, Stakeholders’ Perceptions of Climate
mended that social and physical infrastructure be improved and                                 Change and Adaptation Strategies in Ethiopia, EEA Research Report
institutions dealing with climate-related issues including the                                 (Addis Ababa: Ethiopian Economic Association, 2008) Available at:
meteorology agency be strengthened to increase the country’s                                   http://www.eeaecon.org/Research%20Materials.htm.

A. Admassie (aadmassie@yahoo.com) is director of the Ethiopian Economic Association (EEA)/Ethiopian Economic Policy Research Institute (EEPRI) in Ethiopia.
b. Adenew (berhanuad@yahoo.com) is a senior researcher at EEA/EEPRI in Ethiopia. A. Tadege (a_tadege@yahoo.com) is head of the Research and Studies Depart-
ment at the National Meteorological Agency (NMA) in Ethiopia.


     This series of IFPRI Research Briefs is based on research supported by the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development, Germany, under the
     project “Food and Water Security under Global Change: Developing Adaptive Capacity with a Focus on Rural Africa,” which forms part of the CGIAR
     Challenge Program on Water and Food. Through collaboration with the Center for Environmental Economics and Policy in Africa, the Ethiopian Develop-
     ment Research Institute, the Ethiopian Economics Association, and the University of Hamburg, the project aims to provide policymakers and stakeholders in
     Ethiopia and South Africa with tools to better understand and analyze the consequences of global change—in particular climate change—and to form policy
     decisions that facilitate adaptation in these countries and beyond.


Financial Contributors and Partners
IFPRI’s research, capacity strengthening, and communications work is made possible by its financial contributors and partners. IFPRI receives its principal funding from
governments, private foundations, and international and regional organizations, most of which are members of the Consultative Group on International Agricultural
Research (CGIAR). IFPRI gratefully acknowledges the generous unrestricted funding from Australia, Canada, China, Finland, France, Germany, India, Ireland, Italy,
Japan, Netherlands, Norway, South Africa, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom, United States, and World Bank.

Printed on alternative-fiber paper manufactured from agriculturally sustainable resources that are processed chlorine-free (PCF).
Copyright © 2008 International Food Policy Research Institute. All rights reserved. Sections of this document may be reproduced without the permission of but with
acknowledgment to IFPRI. Contact ifpri-copyright@cgiar.org for permission to reprint.
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IFPRI Briefs

  • 1. INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESE ARCH INSTITUTE sustainable solutions for ending hunger and poverty IFPRI ® Supported by the CGIAR June 2011 HOW CAN AFRICAN AGRICULTURE ADAPT TO CLIMATE CHANGE? INSIGHTS FROM ETHIOPIA AND SOUTH AFRICA Edited by Claudia Ringler, Elizabeth Bryan, Rashid M. Hassan, Tekie Alemu, and Marya Hillesland Research Brief Series 15
  • 2. Introduction During the coming decades, global change will impact food and water security in significant but highly uncertain ways. There are strong indications that developing countries will bear the brunt of the consequences, particularly from climate change. In Sub-Saharan Africa, agriculture—the mainstay of rural livelihoods—is particularly vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate change, and the adaptive capacity of rural smallholders is extremely low. Consequently, it is important to understand the impacts of global change on agriculture and natural resources in Sub-Saharan Africa and to identify informed and effective adaptation measures and investment priorities to alleviate the harmful impacts of global change. This set of briefs assesses these issues with a focus on the Nile Basin in Ethiopia and the Limpopo Basin in South Africa. Authors identify climate change impacts on agricultural productivity and food production; assess the vulnerability of the farming sector and farm households to climate variability and change; examine climate change perceptions; and suggest adaptation strategies at the farm, basin, and national levels alongside the associated investments needed to implement such strategies. We are grateful to the authors for their research and analyses, to the reviewers for their constructive comments, and to Mary Jane Banks and Ashley St. Thomas for their editorial assistance. We gratefully acknowledge financial support from the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development, Germany. We hope that the insights on climate change impacts and adaptation options presented here will contribute to policy changes that profoundly increase the capacity of the rural poor in Sub-Saharan Africa to adapt to climate change. Claudia Ringler Tekie Alemu Senior Research Fellow, International Food Policy Dean, School of Economics, Addis Ababa University, Research Institute, Washington, DC Ethiopia Elizabeth Bryan Marya Hillesland Research Analyst, International Food Policy Research PhD candidate, American University, Washington, DC Institute, Washington, DC Rashid M. Hassan Director, Centre for Environmental Economics and Policy in Africa, University of Pretoria, South Africa International Food Policy Research Institute Copyright © 2011 International Food Policy Research Institute. All 2033 K Street, NW rights reserved. For permission to republish, contact ifpri-copy- Washington, DC 20006-1002 USA right@cgiar.org. Phone: +1-202-862-5600 These research briefs are based on previously reviewed material. Any Fax: +1-202-467-4439 opinions stated herein are those of the authors and do not necessar- Email: ifpri@cgiar.org ily reflect the policies or opinions of IFPRI. Skype: ifprihomeoffice www.ifpri.org
  • 4. INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE sustainable solutions for ending hunger and poverty Supported by the CGIAR IFPRI Research Brief 15–1 HOW CAN AFRICAN AGRICULTURE ADAPT TO CLIMATE CHANGE? INSIGHTS FROM ETHIOPIA AND SOUTH AFRICA the impact of climate variability and climate change on water and Food Outcomes A Framework for Analysis Claudia Ringler O ver the coming decades, global change will have an impact on food and water security in significant and highly uncer- tain ways, and there are strong indications that developing countries security must take into account relevant hydrologic, agronomic, economic, social, and environmental processes at global, regional, national, basin, and local levels (Figure 1). This could be done will bear the brunt of the adverse consequences, particularly from following the paradigm of “strategic cyclical scaling” devised by climate change. This is largely because poverty levels are high, and Root and Schneider (see further reading), which incorporates developing-country capacity to adapt to global change is weak. large- and small-scale research studies to improve our under- Furthermore, the rural populations of developing countries—for standing of complex environmental systems and allow more reliable whom agricultural production is the primary source of direct and projections of the ecological, economic, and social consequences of indirect employment and income—will be most affected due global change. Process-based, bottom-up relationships are used to agriculture’s vulnerability to global change processes. The agricul- predict larger scale behavior, which is then tested against large-scale tural sector is the largest consumer of water resources, and data for a top-down evaluation. Cycling between large and small variability in water supply has a major influence on health and scales should thus produce more credible overall results. welfare in poor areas. With water scarcity and extreme weather events expected to increase under climate change, water security Figure 1 Global change, Spatial Scales, and Adaptation Strategies could decline significantly in rural areas. Consequently, it is important to understand the impacts of global change (in terms Farm level Climate • Crop and livestock selection of climate, demography, technology, and so on) on agriculture change • Cropping and grazing patterns and natural resources in developing countries and to develop • Irrigation/watering technology adaptive capacity to respond to these impacts. Moreover, there is Basin level Extreme • Water allocation policy a need to develop informed and effective adaptation measures weather • Infrastructure investment and investment options that can be taken now to alleviate events • Land use change adverse impacts of global change in the future. National level • Agriculture and water price policies Demographic • Investment, subsidy, and tax policies FramewOrk FOr analysis change • Trade policies Regional level While food and water security are largely determined by actions • Regional trade policies taken at the local or national levels, global factors—such as Conflict • Global climate policies world food trade, global climate and climate change, and and crises • Global trading patterns Global level competition for water—also affect food and water security locally. Moreover, human alteration of land use patterns, GLOBAL CHANGE ADAPTATION STRATEGIES SPATIAL SCALES urbanization, elimination of wetlands, nutrient overloading in water systems, and other biophysical changes could dramatically SouRce: C. Ringler, The impact of climate variability and climate change on affect the ability of the global water cycle to support needed food water and food outcomes: A framework for analysis, in C. van Bers, D. Petry, production. The development of policies that mitigate adverse and C. Pahl-Wostl, eds., Global assessments: Bridging scales and linking to policy, GWSP Issues in Global Water System Research No. 2, http://www.gwsp.org/ impacts, enhance positive impacts, and support adaptation to downloads/gwsp_issues_no2.pdf, 2007. climate and global change, together with enhancing local food and water security, therefore requires an understanding of the interactions among local, basin-level, national, and global factors. research activities Thus, analysis of strategies for increased food and water A project supported by Germany’s Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development, entitled “Food and Water Security 2033 K Street, NW • Washington, DC 20006-1002 USA • T. +1-202-862-5600 / Skype: IFPRIhomeoffice • F. +1-202-467-4439 • ifpri@cgiar.org www.ifpri.org
  • 5. under Global Change: Developing Adaptive Capacity with a These sets of analyses were complemented with papers on the Focus on Rural Africa,” has conducted research on adaptation to role of climate change mitigation for the region, the importance of climate change at various scales. This project, which is associated taking risk into account in devising adaptation options, and the role with the Challenge Program on Water and Food under the of collective action and property rights in community adaptation. Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research The outcomes of the analyses can be used to guide appropriate (CGIAR), involved close collaboration with researchers at the response options to reduce rural vulnerability to global change. Center for Environmental Economics and Policy in Africa, the Ethiopian Development Research Institute, the Ethiopian cOnclusiOns Economics Association, and the University of Hamburg. The development of adaptive capacity to reduce adverse impacts of At the local level, farm household surveys were implemented global change in rural areas of developing countries requires analyses in the Nile River Basin of Ethiopia and the Limpopo River Basin at various spatial scales and an understanding of the linkages across of South Africa to examine vulnerability to shocks, perceptions of the various scales. At the farm level, households adjust to global long-term changes in climate (precipitation and temperature), and change by changing farm practices or abandoning farming. These the determinants of adaptation to long-term global warming. Policymakers are generally more interested in the development of local actions, in turn, influence climate and global change. At the adaptation measures following political rather than hydrologic basin level, basin authorities influence both land and water alloca- boundaries. Consequently, vulnerability and adaptation measures tion, and carry out purposeful adaptations to global change. were also developed at the province and state levels for these two Purposeful adaptation can be either tactical, in response to climate or countries. In parallel, stakeholder forums were held in Ethiopia other global changes, or strategic, in anticipation of future global and South Africa to discuss measures of vulnerability, adaptation change. At the national level, governments and authorities influence options and constraints, and the role of information and various ecosystem services and human well-being. They also carry out actors—that is, the State, private sector, and civil society—in purposeful adaptations, including changes in price, trade, and shaping adaptation to climate change. Finally, the impact of investment policies to anticipate or respond to global change. At the climate change on crop production in the survey sites was simu- regional level, organizations and institutions have the potential to lated based on crop yield and production function models to assess mitigate global change impacts through changes in trading regimes, the implications of climate change for local food security. and the development of regional transportation and communications At the basin level, the impact of climate change on water infrastructure. Important global factors also affect water and food availability, water demands, and irrigation was simulated to security at the local level, such as world food trade and competition identify basin-level adaptation strategies. Moreover, alternative for water generated by the world economy. investment strategies at the basin level were identified for Ethiopia This series of briefs describes the results of research in all taking into account climate variability and change, and broader these areas. While these results reflect only one round of research impacts on the economy. A different but similar approach was using the “strategic cyclical scaling” framework, it is hoped that used to study the impact of climate change and adaptation future research will lead to even greater integration of bottom-up strategies on river basin units in South Africa. To capture the and top-down approaches. interactions of climate change and adaptation at the national and regional (Sub-Saharan Africa) levels, a water and food projections FOr Further reaDinG model was updated to take into account the impacts of climate Ringler, C., The impact of climate variability and climate change on change in addition to other drivers of global change. Using the water and food outcomes: A framework for analysis, in C. van Bers, integrated analysis tool, the impact of global change on poverty D. Petry, and C. Pahl-Wostl, eds., Global assessments: Bridging and water and food security was assessed for case study countries scales and linking to policy, GWSP Issues in Global Water System and Sub-Saharan Africa. Alternative adaptation strategies Research No. 2, http://www.gwsp.org/downloads/gwsp_issues_no2. developed at workshops were assessed using the modeling pdf, 2007. framework, taking into account the local-level constraints and Root, T. L., and S. H. Schneider, Ecology and climate: Research basin-level challenges identified. strategies and implications. Science 269 (5222: 334–341, 1995). c. ringler (c.ringler@cgiar.org) is a senior research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC. This series of IFPRI Research Briefs is based on research supported by the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development, Germany, under the project “Food and Water Security under Global Change: Developing Adaptive Capacity with a Focus on Rural Africa,” which forms part of the CGIAR Challenge Program on Water and Food. Through collaboration with the Center for Environmental Economics and Policy in Africa, the Ethiopian Develop- ment Research Institute, the Ethiopian Economics Association, and the University of Hamburg, the project aims to provide policymakers and stakeholders in Ethiopia and South Africa with tools to better understand and analyze the consequences of global change—in particular climate change—and to form policy decisions that facilitate adaptation in these countries and beyond. Financial Contributors and Partners IFPRI’s research, capacity strengthening, and communications work is made possible by its financial contributors and partners. IFPRI receives its principal funding from governments, private foundations, and international and regional organizations, most of which are members of the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR). IFPRI gratefully acknowledges the generous unrestricted funding from Australia, Canada, China, Finland, France, Germany, India, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Norway, South Africa, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom, United States, and World Bank. Printed on alternative-fiber paper manufactured from agriculturally sustainable resources that are processed chlorine-free (PCF). Copyright © 2008 International Food Policy Research Institute. All rights reserved. Sections of this document may be reproduced without the permission of but with acknowledgment to IFPRI. Contact ifpri-copyright@cgiar.org for permission to reprint.
  • 6. INTERNATIONAL FOOD Center for Environmental Economics POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE and Policy in Africa sustainable solutions for ending hunger and poverty Supported by the CGIAR IFPRI Research Brief 15–2 HOW CAN AFRICAN AGRICULTURE ADAPT TO CLIMATE CHANGE? INSIGHTS FROM ETHIOPIA AND SOUTH AFRICA Vulnerability and the Impact of Climate Change in South Africa’s Limpopo River Basin Sharon Shewmake W ith likely long-term changes in rainfall patterns and shifting temperature zones, climate change is expected to increase the frequency of climate-related shocks, such as floods and droughts in who did report droughts. This may be because the rainfall variable examined is an average over the entire growing season and, as a result, may not capture a run of rainless days or other important Sub-Saharan Africa. For farm households, an increase in the microclimate dynamics. frequency of climate-related income shocks could lead not only to In order to cope with shocks, the survey asked whether or not lower expected income, but also to higher income variance, which in households sold livestock, borrowed from relatives or the bank, turn can cause them to pursue costly risk-coping strategies and to fall accepted aid, migrated to another area, sought off-farm employ- below poverty trap thresholds. For this reason, it is important to ment, or ate less. The majority of the households, however, said they understand how a changing distribution of risk will lead to increased did nothing in response to droughts, and a corresponding regression vulnerability, not just decreased expected income. analysis finds the impact of droughts on income to be insignificant. This brief is based on a paper that uses farm households’ This result is puzzling because, at the very least, households responses to climate-related shocks in South Africa’s Limpopo River must have used their available assets or reduced their consumption Basin to gauge how farmers are likely to respond to future climate in response to the decrease in income caused by climate-related change shocks. The increased frequency and severity of droughts shocks. There are two explanations for this. First, there could be associated with global warming may induce farmers to change their problems with the data. Income may not have been accurately behavior to reduce their risk of negative impacts from future climate- measured or the reports of no response could indicate that house- related shocks. While it is difficult to predict farmers’ behavior and holds reported many types of droughts, not just those that were how it will affect welfare, coping strategies used in response to shocks severe and required coping strategies. Treating inconsequential today can be used to predict whether and how rural South Africans droughts in the same way as severe droughts would dilute the signal will cope in the future. The study examines household responses to of severe droughts on income. The second possible explanation is droughts in 2005 and household vulnerability to future climate that households had already adapted to living in a drought-prone change by assessing their probability of falling below an income environment. Droughts are common in South Africa and house- threshold as a result of future climate-related shocks. holds may already use drought-resistant crop varieties or other Assessing household vulnerability is important because efficient coping mechanisms that lessen their impact. This does not mean social policy needs to go beyond poverty alleviation in the present to the presence of droughts does not affect household wealth (that is, prevent poverty in the future. A poverty reduction strategy that does their asset position). The coping strategies used by farmers in the not distinguish between transient and structural poverty leads to presence of drought could be very costly and a reduction in income inefficient use of resources, in that it focuses on those who are variance could increase overall income by allowing farmers to spend temporarily poor but may be able to escape poverty on their own, at less time on low-yield, low-risk activities. the expense of those who have a high probability of becoming chronically poor. eStImAtIon of VuLneRABILIty Vulnerability is defined as the probability that a household will fall ImpACt of dRoughtS on InCome below some income threshold at some future point in time. Using Using cross-sectional data from a 2005 survey of nearly 800 median household income (16,000 Rand, equivalent to US$2,508 farmers in 20 districts in South Africa’s Limpopo River Basin that in 2005) and bottom quartile income (7,800 Rand) as the two was augmented with rainfall data, the study finds that droughts thresholds, the study assesses which households are more vulnerable were the most prevalent climate-related shock reported: 41 to future climatic shocks. The results are plotted in four quadrants instances of droughts were reported in 2005. No apparent in Figures 1 and 2. Households in the upper-left quadrant are relationship was found, however, between those who would have currently below the income threshold and will likely continue to be been expected to report droughts based on rainfall data and those below the threshold in the future. Households in the bottom-left 2033 K Street, NW • Washington, DC 20006-1002 USA • T. +1-202-862-5600 / Skype: IFPRIhomeoffice • F. +1-202-467-4439 • ifpri@cgiar.org www.ifpri.org
  • 7. quadrant are currently below the threshold but have characteristics the income threshold and are likely to remain so in the future. suggesting they have less than a 50 percent chance of being below The results suggest that most households are not vulnerable to the threshold in the future. Those in the upper-right corner are falling below the 7,800 rand threshold (Figure 1). However, when above the income threshold at present but are likely to fall below it the poverty line is set at 16,000 Rand (the second income quartile), in the future, whereas those in the bottom-right quadrant are above vulnerability increases significantly (Figure 2). Further, the study finds that households that do not own Figure 1 Vulnerability to climate-related shocks based on the probability of household income falling below 7,800 rand farm animals are more vulnerable to falling below the poverty threshold than other households. Similarly, households with more 1 than 10 members, and those that rely heavily on rainfed agricul- Poor, likely to remain Nonpoor, likely to poor next year become poor next ture are more vulnerable to falling below the poverty threshold. year Households that do not have access to credit or that have no 0.8 knowledge of credit are vulnerable to falling below the poverty thresholds, but they are less vulnerable than households that Vulnerability 0.6 succeeded in obtaining a loan. The study also finds that in South Africa’s Limpopo River 0.4 Basin, residents of Gauteng province are most vulnerable to falling below the lower income threshold (7,800 Rand), whereas Nonpoor, residents of Limpopo are the least vulnerable to falling below this 0.2 likely to threshold. Members of the siSwati and Setswana ethnic groups remain Poor, likely not to nonpoor are the most vulnerable to falling below either poverty threshold. be poor next year next year 0 5 10 15 20 ImpLICAtIonS Income (ln) While the impact of droughts on income was found to be statistically insignificant, and the majority of households said they Figure 2 Vulnerability to climate-related shocks based on the probability of household income falling below 16,000 rand “did nothing” in response to droughts, this does not necessarily mean that farming households in South Africa’s Limpopo River 1 Basin are prepared for future changes in climate patterns. Climate Poor, likely Nonpoor, likely change is expected to bring a number of unexpected climate- to remain to become poor 0.8 poor next next year related shocks requiring new adaptive behavior to mitigate their year impacts. As a result, adaptation could be very costly, especially for those least able to bear that cost. Vulnerability 0.6 The vulnerability break-downs can help policymakers identify households that are not currently poor but are at risk of 0.4 becoming poor in the future. Given that climate change will involve a redistribution and intensification of risk, attention to vulnerability is important. Given that predicting the actual effects 0.2 Nonpoor, likely of climate change is fraught with difficulties due to high levels of Poor, likely not to remain to be poor next nonpoor next uncertainty, identifying households that are vulnerable to climate year year stresses will help to reduce future poverty. 0 5 10 15 20 Income (ln) foR fuRtheR ReAdIng SouRce: Shewmake, S., Vulnerability and the Impact of Climate Change in Shewmake, S., Vulnerability and the Impact of Climate Change in South South Africa’s Limpopo River Basin, IFPRI Discussion Paper No. 804 Africa’s Limpopo River Basin, IFPRI Discussion Paper No. 804, http:// (Washington, DC: IFPRI, 2008). www.ifpri.org/pubs/dp/ifpridp00804.asp (Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute, 2008). S. Shewmake (shewmake@primal.ucdavis.edu) is a Ph.D. Candidate in the Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics at the University of California, Davis. This series of IFPRI Research Briefs is based on research supported by the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development, Germany, under the project “Food and Water Security under Global Change: Developing Adaptive Capacity with a Focus on Rural Africa,” which forms part of the CGIAR Challenge Program on Water and Food. Through collaboration with the Center for Environmental Economics and Policy in Africa, the Ethiopian Develop- ment Research Institute, the Ethiopian Economics Association, and the University of Hamburg, the project aims to provide policymakers and stakeholders in Ethiopia and South Africa with tools to better understand and analyze the consequences of global change—in particular climate change—and to form policy decisions that facilitate adaptation in these countries and beyond. Financial Contributors and Partners IFPRI’s research, capacity strengthening, and communications work is made possible by its financial contributors and partners. IFPRI receives its principal funding from governments, private foundations, and international and regional organizations, most of which are members of the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR). IFPRI gratefully acknowledges the generous unrestricted funding from Australia, Canada, China, Finland, France, Germany, India, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Norway, South Africa, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom, United States, and World Bank. Printed on alternative-fiber paper manufactured from agriculturally sustainable resources that are processed chlorine-free (PCF). Copyright © 2008 International Food Policy Research Institute. All rights reserved. Sections of this document may be reproduced without the permission of but with acknowledgment to IFPRI. Contact ifpri-copyright@cgiar.org for permission to reprint.
  • 8. INTERNATIONAL FOOD Center for Environmental Economics POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE and Policy in Africa sustainable solutions for ending hunger and poverty Supported by the CGIAR IFPRI Research Brief 15–3 HOW CAN AFRICAN AGRICULTURE ADAPT TO CLIMATE CHANGE? INSIGHTS FROM ETHIOPIA AND SOUTH AFRICA Mapping the South African Farming Sector’s Vulnerability to Climate Change and Variability A Subnational Assessment Glwadys Aymone Gbetibouo and Claudia Ringler I n southern Africa, by the middle of the 21st century climate change is expected to cause temperature increases of 1–3°C, broad summer rainfall reductions of 5–10 percent, and an increase in the incidence of The most sensitive provinces—mainly due to their high propor- tion of smallholder subsistence farmers—are the Eastern Cape, KwaZulu-Natal, and Limpopo. Smallholder farmers constitute both droughts and floods. Consequently, climate change has significant 70 percent of the farming population in the Eastern Cape, KwaZulu- potential to negatively affect crop production in South Africa, and in Natal, Mpumalanga, and the North West province, and inappropriate turn the well-being of the country’s farmers. land uses in these regions have severely degraded land and reduced This brief is based on a study that examines the level of vulner- production capacity. The Eastern Cape and Limpopo provinces have ability to climate change in South Africa’s farming sector by the highest shares of agricultural GDP, the lowest average farm-asset developing a nationwide provincial-level vulnerability profile. values, the lowest literacy rates, and the highest unemployment rates. Particular attention is paid to the underlying socioeconomic and The least-sensitive provinces are the Western Cape, Gauteng, and institutional factors that determine how farmers respond to and cope Free State. A common feature of these regions is that they have a low with climate hazards. percentage of subsistence farmers and the least-populated rural areas. Gauteng and the Western Cape have greater infrastructure develop- CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK ment, high levels of literacy, and lower unemployment rates. The In this study, vulnerability to climate change is conceptualized as a Western Cape is the least sensitive province, largely due to a high function of three factors: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. degree of crop diversification, low levels of land degradation, and high Exposure can be interpreted as the direct danger (the stressor) together reliance on irrigation. with the nature and extent of changes in a region’s climate variables Combining the indicators for sensitivity and exposure, (temperature, precipitation, and extreme weather events). Sensitivity KwaZulu-Natal, Limpopo, and the Eastern Cape are predicted to describes the human–environmental conditions that exacerbate or suffer the largest impacts of climate change and variability. With the ameliorate the hazard, or trigger an impact. Exposure and sensitivity exception of Limpopo, these provinces have both the largest exposure are intrinsically linked and mutually influence potential impacts. Adaptive capacity represents the potential to implement adaptation Figure 1 Vulnerability framework measures in efforts to avert potential impacts (Figure 1). Several indicators representing these three components were selected to facilitate the study’s examination of vulnerability in South Africa. The EXPOSURE ADAPTIVE CAPACITY selected indicators—drawn from an extensive review of the litera- Determinants: Characteristics: ture—represent both the biophysical conditions of the farming Frequency, magnitude, Coping strategies, social regions and the socioeconomic conditions of the farmers. duration networks, resource use, diversity, and flexibility RESULTS OF VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT Analysis of vulnerability indicators shows that provinces in South Africa demonstrate vast diversity in environmental and socioeconomic IMPACTS conditions. The coastal provinces of the Eastern Cape, KwaZulu- VULNERABILITY Natal, and the Western Cape exhibit the highest frequency of extreme events (droughts and floods) over the past century, whereas the desert SENSITIVITY region of the Northern Cape and the steppe arid regions of the North West and Free State provinces exhibit the lowest frequency. The Characteristics: ADAPTATION highest incremental temperature increase by 2050 is found in the Assets, entitlements, (AND MITIGATION) economic structures, RESPONSES desert region of the Northern Cape and the steppe arid regions of Free human capital State and Mpumalanga, and rainfall changes are predicted to be greatest in the Gauteng and North West provinces. 2033 K Street, NW • Washington, DC 20006-1002 USA • T. +1-202-862-5600 / Skype: IFPRIhomeoffice • F. +1-202-467-4439 • ifpri@cgiar.org www.ifpri.org
  • 9. and the highest sensitivity. The Mpumalanga and North Figure 2 Vulnerability ranking in South Africa by province West provinces fall within the mid range of vulnerability based on these two indicators, whereas the Northern 4 Cape, Western Cape, Free State, and Gauteng have the Limpopo lowest risk of negative impacts because of the prevalence Eastern 3 Cape KwaZulu- of commercial farming and the lack of land degradation. Natal Indicators of adaptive capacity differ considerably 2 across the nine provinces. Capacity is greatest in the North West Vulnerability index Western Cape due to the combined effects of well- 1 Free Mpumalanga Northern Western developed infrastructure, high literacy rates and income State Gauteng Cape Cape levels, low unemployment rates and HIV prevalence, 0 and relatively high capital wealth. Gauteng and the Northern Cape fall within the mid-range for this -1 indicator, whereas adaptive capacity is low in KwaZulu- Natal, the Eastern Cape, Free State, Limpopo, and -2 North West due to high dependence on agriculture, high unemployment rates and HIV prevalence, and low -3 levels infrastructure development. Assessing results based on all three components of -4 vulnerability, Limpopo, the Eastern Cape and KwaZulu- Natal are the most vulnerable provinces; Mpumalanga, -5 the North West, Gauteng, and the Northern Cape fall within the mid range of vulnerability; and the Western In light of large spatial differences in vulnerability, policymakers Cape has the lowest level of vulnerability. The vulnerability of Free should tailor policies to local conditions. In highly vulnerable regions, State is considered indeterminate because it exhibits both low such as Limpopo, KwaZulu-Natal, and the Eastern Cape, policy- exposure and low adaptive capacity. makers should enact measures (1) to support the effective Figure 2 presents the results of a quantitative vulnerability index management of environmental resources (for example, soil, vegetation, based on 19 indicators. As expected, the Western Cape and Gauteng and water resources); (2) to promote increased market participation, have low vulnerability scores; the Free State, Northern Cape, especially within the large subsistence-farming sector; (3) to stimulate Mpumalanga, and North West provinces fall within the mid range of both agricultural intensification and livelihood diversification away vulnerability; and the most vulnerable provinces are the Eastern from risky agriculture; and (4) to enact social programs and spending Cape, KwaZulu-Natal and Limpopo. on health, education, and welfare to help maintain and augment both POLICY IMPLICATIONS physical and intangible human capital. Policymakers should also In examining vulnerability at the province level, caution must be invest in rural infrastructure development. In areas of high exposure, taken given enormous heterogeneity in household-level resource such as the coastal zones, priority should be given to the development access, poverty levels, and adaptive capacity. Ideally, future household- of accurate early warning systems, as well as appropriate relief level research will facilitate improved targeting of policies to reduce programs and agricultural insurance. climate change vulnerability. That said, the results of this study show that the provinces deemed most vulnerable to the effects of climate FOR FURTHER READING change and variability do not always equate with the most vulnerable populations. Rather, results suggest that the overall vulnerability of Gbetibouo, G.A. and C. Ringler. Mapping South African farming sector the South African farming sector is characterized by a combination of vulnerability to climate change and variability: A subnational assessment. medium-level exposure risk coupled with medium to high levels of IFPRI Discussion Paper No. 885 (Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute, 2009). social vulnerability. Glwadys Aymone Gbetibouo (gbetibouo@yahoo.fr) is a PhD student at the Center for Environmental Economics and Policy Analysis (CEEPA) of the University of Pretoria, South Africa. Claudia Ringler (c.ringler@cgiar.org) is a senior research fellow in the Environment and Production Technology Division (EPTD) of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Washington, DC. This series of IFPRI Research Briefs is based on research supported by the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development, Germany, under the project “Food and Water Security under Global Change: Developing Adaptive Capacity with a Focus on Rural Africa,” which forms part of the CGIAR Challenge Program on Water and Food. Through collaboration with the Center for Environmental Economics and Policy in Africa, the Ethiopian Develop- ment Research Institute, the Ethiopian Economics Association, and the University of Hamburg, the project aims to provide policymakers and stakeholders in Ethiopia and South Africa with tools to better understand and analyze the consequences of global change—in particular climate change—and to form policy decisions that facilitate adaptation in these countries and beyond. Financial Contributors and Partners IFPRI’s research, capacity strengthening, and communications work is made possible by its financial contributors and partners. IFPRI receives its principal funding from governments, private foundations, and international and regional organizations, most of which are members of the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR). IFPRI gratefully acknowledges the generous unrestricted funding from Australia, Canada, China, Finland, France, Germany, India, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Norway, South Africa, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom, United States, and World Bank. Printed on alternative-fiber paper manufactured from agriculturally sustainable resources that are processed chlorine-free (PCF). Copyright © 2009 International Food Policy Research Institute. All rights reserved. Sections of this document may be reproduced without the permission of but with acknowledgment to IFPRI. Contact ifpri-copyright@cgiar.org for permission to reprint.
  • 10. INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Ethiopia Development Research Institute sustainable solutions for ending hunger and poverty Supported by the CGIAR IFPRI Research Brief 15–4 HOW CAN AFRICAN AGRICULTURE ADAPT TO CLIMATE CHANGE? INSIGHTS FROM ETHIOPIA AND SOUTH AFRICA Assessing Household Vulnerability to Climate Change The Case of Farmers in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia Temesgen T. Deressa, Rashid M. Hassan, and Claudia Ringler E thiopia remains one of the least-developed countries in the world: 50 percent of the population lives in abject poverty, and average life expectancy is only 43 years. Agriculture—the poverty line of US$1.25 per day, the average income of the surveyed households, and arbitrary values above and below the average income of the surveyed households. main sector of the Ethiopian economy—employs about 80 percent Results for income thresholds of US$0.3 and US$2 per day of the population and is dominated by small-scale, mixed crop and are provided in Figures 1 and 2, respectively. The x-axis shows livestock production with very low productivity, which can be current income, while the y-axis shows estimates of vulnerability. attributed to obsolete farming techniques; soil degradation caused Each figure is divided into four quadrants. Farm households in the by overgrazing and deforestation; poor complementary services, upper left quadrant fall below the relevant poverty line and are such as extension, credit, markets, and infrastructure; and likely to remain there in the future; those in the bottom left frequent droughts and floods. Climate change is expected to quadrant fall below the poverty threshold today but have charac- increase the frequency, intensity, and spatial coverage of droughts teristics suggesting less than a 50 percent likelihood of their and floods. Assessing Ethiopian farmers’ vulnerability to climate remaining there in the future; those in the upper right quadrant change can help identify groups in particular need of support are currently above the specified income threshold but are likely to under a changing climate. This brief is based on a study that fall below it in the future; and those in the bottom left quadrant measures the vulnerability of farmers to climatic extremes, such as are currently above the income threshold and are likely to remain droughts, floods, and hailstorms. there in the future. Unsurprisingly, farmers’ vulnerability to climate shocks is THE IMPACT OF DROUGHT ON HOUSEHOLDS highly sensitive to the choice of poverty threshold. The number of households that are considered poor today and likely to remain The study found that of the 1,000 households surveyed across 5 poor in the future increases as the income level used to determine regional states and 20 districts of Ethiopia, 31 percent reported the poverty threshold increases. When the poverty line is fixed at droughts, 12 percent reported floods, and 18 percent reported an income level of US$2 per day, 99 percent of farmers are hailstorms over the previous five years. These shocks resulted in a considered vulnerable and, hence, fall into the upper right variety of reported losses, primarily in the form of crop yield quadrant (Figure 1). Similarly, when the poverty line is reduced to declines and asset/income losses. The majority of farmers did US$1.50 and to US$1.25 per day, most households remain poor nothing in response to these shocks, mainly due to abject poverty. and vulnerable today, but the number of nonvulnerable house- Among those farmers who did respond, the most common coping holds increases slightly. When the poverty threshold is set at a strategy was to sell livestock, suggesting that—in addition to daily minimum income of US$0.30, only 12 percent of farmers providing animal draft power and manure—livestock also serves are considered vulnerable to climate extremes (Figure 2). At this as an asset and hence provides insurance against shocks. Other threshold, most households fall within the bottom left quadrant, important coping strategies reported were borrowing from indicating that they are not considered poor and are likely to relatives, reducing food consumption, depending on food aid and remain nonpoor in the future. food-for-work programs, and seeking off-farm employment. Analysis of vulnerability across different agroecological zones indicates that farmers in the warm, semi-arid Kola zone are most ESTIMATION OF VULNERABILITY vulnerable to extreme climatic events: of all the households Vulnerability is defined as the probability that climate shocks will surveyed in Kola, 99 percent are either already vulnerable or will shift household income below a given minimum level (such as a become vulnerable in the future. Farmers in the cool, subhumid poverty line) or cause income levels to remain below the minimum Weynadega zone and the cool, humid Dega zone are also highly level if the household is already poor. To analyze the sensitivity of vulnerable to future climate shocks: 94 and 89 percent, respectively, vulnerability to a chosen threshold, the study examined different are considered vulnerable based on the US$1.25 per day poverty minimum income levels/poverty lines, such as the international line. While these results are not representative at the regional level, 2033 K Street, NW • Washington, DC 20006-1002 USA • T. +1-202-862-5600 / Skype: IFPRIhomeoffice • F. +1-202-467-4439 • ifpri@cgiar.org www.ifpri.org
  • 11. Figure 1 Vulnerability to climate shocks based on an income they do show that the districts surveyed in Beneshangul Gumuz threshold of US$2 per day or 6,570 Ethiopian Birr per year and the Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples Region are most vulnerable under all of the poverty lines tested, whereas the 1 districts surveyed in Oromia are the least vulnerable. .9 CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS Vulnerability The results of this study indicate an inverse relationship between .8 the incomes of farm households and their level of vulnerability to climate extremes. Thus, policy interventions under climate change .7 should focus on strengthening public and household-level risk management using both mitigation and adaptation strategies to .6 reduce the negative impacts of climate change. Household-level mitigation strategies should include practices that encourage crop .5 and livestock diversification, the use of drought-tolerant crop 4 6 8 10 varieties and livestock species, mixed crop and livestock produc- Income (Ln) tion, and membership in rotating credit groups. Policies that support household-level adaptation strategies should encourage Figure 2 Vulnerability to climate shocks based on an income income generation and asset holding, both of which provide threshold of US$0.30 per day or 900 Ethiopian Birr per year households with a financial buffer against harsh climatic events. Public risk mitigation might include strategies such as water 1 harvesting, resource conservation and management, irrigation development, voluntary resettlement programs, targeted extension .8 service packages (focusing on households or agroecological zones), Vulnerability targeted safety net programs, weather-indexed drought insurance, .6 and the development of well-coordinated early warning systems. Important public adaptation strategies include the efficient .4 administration of foreign emergency relief and effective food-for- work programs. .2 FOR FURTHER READING Deressa, T. T., R. M. Hassan, and C. Ringler. Assessing Household 0 Vulnerability to Climate Change: The Case of Farmers in the Nile 4 6 8 10 Income(Ln) Basin of Ethiopia. IFPRI Discussion Paper No. 935 (Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute, 2009). Temesgen T. Deressa (tderessa@yahoo.com) is a PhD student at the Centre for Environmental Economics and Policy for Africa (CEEPA), University of Pretoria. Rashid M. Hassan (rashid.hassan@up.ac.za) is the director of CEEPA. Claudia Ringler (c.ringler@cgiar.org) is a senior research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC. This series of IFPRI Research Briefs is based on research supported by the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development, Germany, under the project “Food and Water Security under Global Change: Developing Adaptive Capacity with a Focus on Rural Africa,” which forms part of the CGIAR Challenge Program on Water and Food. Through collaboration with the Center for Environmental Economics and Policy in Africa, the Ethiopian Develop- ment Research Institute, the Ethiopian Economics Association, and the University of Hamburg, the project aims to provide policymakers and stakeholders in Ethiopia and South Africa with tools to better understand and analyze the consequences of global change—in particular climate change—and to form policy decisions that facilitate adaptation in these countries and beyond. Financial Contributors and Partners IFPRI’s research, capacity strengthening, and communications work is made possible by its financial contributors and partners. IFPRI receives its principal funding from governments, private foundations, and international and regional organizations, most of which are members of the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR). IFPRI gratefully acknowledges the generous unrestricted funding from Australia, Canada, China, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, India, Ireland, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Norway, the Philippines, South Africa, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, the United States, and the World Bank. Printed on alternative-fiber paper manufactured from agriculturally sustainable resources that are processed chlorine-free (PCF). Copyright © 2011 International Food Policy Research Institute. All rights reserved. Sections of this document may be reproduced without the permission of but with acknowledgment to IFPRI. Contact ifpri-copyright@cgiar.org for permission to reprint.
  • 12. INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Ethiopia Development Research Institute sustainable solutions for ending hunger and poverty Supported by the CGIAR IFPRI Research Brief 15–5 HOW CAN AFRICAN AGRICULTURE ADAPT TO CLIMATE CHANGE? INSIGHTS FROM ETHIOPIA AND SOUTH AFRICA Measuring Ethiopian Farmers’ Vulnerability to Climate Change Across Regional States Temesgen T. Deressa, Rashid M. Hassan, and Claudia Ringler E thiopia’s agricultural sector, which is dominated by small- scale, mixed crop, and livestock farming, is the mainstay of the country’s economy. It constitutes more than half the nation’s to resources. For instance, all-weather roads facilitate the distribution of necessary inputs to farmers and increase access to markets. Health services enable the provision of preventive treatments for diseases gross domestic product (GDP), generates more than 85 percent of associated with climatic change, such as malaria, and the availability the foreign exchange earnings, and employs about 80 percent of of microfinance supports the adoption of technology packages. the population. Ethiopia’s dependence on agriculture makes the Irrigation potential and literacy rates are important factors country particularly vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate contributing to adaptive capacity. Locations with more potentially change on crop and livestock production. irrigable land can adapt to climate change through improved water This brief is based on a paper that analyzes the vulnerability of control. Regions with a higher literacy rate—a proxy for the level Ethiopian farmers to climate change by creating a vulnerability index of education—are considered to have greater adaptive capacity. and comparing vulnerability indicators across regions. A regional Generally, increased frequency of droughts and floods vulnerability index can assist in identifying the areas of Ethiopia that negatively affects agricultural production, demonstrating agricul- are most vulnerable to climate change and guide policymakers in ture’s sensitivity to climate change. Finally, a region’s exposure to determining where investments in adaptation may be most effective climate change is represented by the predicted change in tempera- in reducing the future adverse effects of climate change. ture and rainfall by 2050. VulnERAbility indiCAtoRS oF VulnERAbility ACRoSS According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change EthiopiA’S AdMiniStRAtiVE REgionS (IPCC), a region’s vulnerability to climate change depends on its The study examined indicators of vulnerability across 7 of the 11 adaptive capacity, sensitivity, and exposure to changing climatic regions of Ethiopia: Afar; Amhara; Beneshangul Gumuz; Oromia; patterns. Adaptive capacity describes the ability of a system to the Southern Nations, Nationalities, and People’s Region adjust to actual or expected climate impacts or to cope with the (SNNPR); Somali; and Tigray. Data were not available for the consequences of climate change. Sensitivity is the degree to which Gambella region; and the urban centers of Addis Ababa, Dire a system is affected—whether positively or negatively—by extreme Dawa, and Harari were excluded. weather conditions and associated climatic variations. Exposure Regarding the indicators of wealth across the study regions, refers to the degree to which a system is exposed to climate change farmers living in the Amhara and Oromia regions have better and the nature of the climate stimulus. quality housing compared with other regions. However, the share The indicators chosen to reflect adaptive capacity include of people owning a radio is highest in Afar and lowest in Amhara. household wealth, access to and use of technology, availability of Livestock ownership is highest in Somali, given that most of the infrastructure and institutions, potential for irrigation, and literacy region’s farmers are nomads whose livelihoods depend on live- rates. Wealth enables communities to absorb and recover from stock. Overall, few farmers in Ethiopia have access to losses more quickly. The livestock owned (number of heads), key nonagricultural income, gifts, and remittances. assets owned (radios, refrigerators, and so on), and quality of Among the regions studied, farmers in SNNPR have the residential homes are commonly used as indicators of wealth in greatest access to technology, pesticides, fertilizers, and improved rural African communities. Proximity to agricultural input supplies seeds, while farmers in the Somali and Afar regions have the is identified as an indicator of technology. For instance, drought- lowest access. tolerant or early maturing varieties of crops generally require access The Afar region has the highest proportion of all-weather to complementary inputs, such as fertilizers and pesticides. roads and health services, whereas Somali has the lowest propor- Well-developed institutions and infrastructure also play tion of health services, and Amhara has the lowest proportion of important roles in adapting to climate change by facilitating access all-weather roads. Market access is highest in SNNPR and lowest 2033 K Street, NW • Washington, DC 20006-1002 USA • T. +1-202-862-5600 / Skype: IFPRIhomeoffice • F. +1-202-467-4439 • ifpri@cgiar.org www.ifpri.org
  • 13. in Somali and Amhara. Primary and secondary schools are Figure 1 Vulnerability indicators of seven regional states in ethiopia equally distributed across the regions except for Somali, which has proportionally fewer schools. Telephone service is most available in rural Afar and least available in Beneshangul Gumuz. Tigray has the highest proportion of 0.80 SNNPR microfinance and veterinary services, whereas Somali has 0.60 Beneshangul Gumuz the lowest proportion of both these services. Irrigation 0.40 potential and literacy rates are highest in SNNPR and 0.20 Afar Amhara Oromia Somali Tigray Tigray and lowest in Afar and Somali. 0.00 Over the past century, Amhara has suffered most from -0.20 droughts and floods, with Oromia and Somali following -0.40 closely behind, whereas Beneshangul Gumuz and Afar have -0.60 experienced the lowest number of droughts and floods. The -0.80 predicted increase in temperature by 2050 is greatest for -1.00 Afar and Tigray and lowest for SNPPR, and the change in -1.20 precipitation is highest for Somali and lowest for SNPPR. -1.40 VulnERAbility to CliMAtE ChAngE SouRce: Deressa, T. T., R. M. Hassan, and C. Ringler, Measuring Vulnerability of by REgion Ethiopian Farmers to Climate Change across Regional States, IFPRI Discussion Paper (Washington, DC: IFPRI, 2008 forthcoming). The study calculated vulnerability to climate change by Note: Positive values indicate low vulnerability. Indexes are constructed using region as the net effect of sensitivity, exposure, and adaptive the principal component analysis method. capacity. Results indicate that Afar, Somali, Oromia, and Tigray are relatively more vulnerable to climate change than the other regions. The vulnerability of Afar and Somali is correlated with poverty. Integrated rural development schemes attributed to their low level of rural service provision and infra- aimed at alleviating poverty would increase the country’s capacity structure development. Tigray and Oromia’s vulnerability to to adapt to climate change. Policymakers would do well to climate change can be attributed to the regions’ higher frequencies prioritize poverty alleviation in the least-developed regions of the of droughts and floods, lower access to technology, fewer institu- country, Afar and Somali, and the relatively more populated tions, and lack of infrastructure. SNNPR’s lower vulnerability is regions of Oromia and Tigray. associated with the region’s relatively greater access to technology Likewise, investing in irrigation in areas with high potential, and markets, larger irrigation potential, and higher literacy rate. such as in SNNPR, could promote adaptation to climate change. Strengthening the ongoing micro-level adaptation programs implemented by governmental and nongovernmental organizations, poliCy iMpliCAtionS While the results of the study identify the regions of Ethiopia most such as water harvesting and other natural resource conservation vulnerable to climate change, each region covers a large area with programs, can also boost the adaptive capacities of farmers. diverse socioeconomic and environmental characteristics. Future research should focus on uncovering localized vulnerability. FoR FuRthER REAding Nonetheless, the findings from the regional study can help identify Deressa, T. T., R. M. Hassan, and C. Ringler, Measuring Ethiopian policies that may help stabilize national and regional food produc- Farmers’ Vulnerability to Climate Change Across Regional States, tion in the face of the anticipated adverse effects of climate change. IFPRI Discussion Paper No. 806, http://www.ifpri.org/pubs/dp/ In general, Ethiopia’s vulnerability to climate change is highly ifpridp00806.asp (Washington, DC: IFPRI, 2008). t. t. deressa (tderessa@yahoo.com) is a PhD student at the Centre for Environmental Economics and Policy for Africa (CEEPA), University of Pretoria. R. M. hassan (rashid.hassan@up.ac.za) is director of CEEPA. C. Ringler (c.ringler@cgiar.org) is a senior research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute, Washing- ton, DC. This series of IFPRI Research Briefs is based on research supported by the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development, Germany, under the project “Food and Water Security under Global Change: Developing Adaptive Capacity with a Focus on Rural Africa,” which forms part of the CGIAR Challenge Program on Water and Food. Through collaboration with the Center for Environmental Economics and Policy in Africa, the Ethiopian Develop- ment Research Institute, the Ethiopian Economics Association, and the University of Hamburg, the project aims to provide policymakers and stakeholders in Ethiopia and South Africa with tools to better understand and analyze the consequences of global change—in particular climate change—and to form policy decisions that facilitate adaptation in these countries and beyond. Financial Contributors and Partners IFPRI’s research, capacity strengthening, and communications work is made possible by its financial contributors and partners. IFPRI receives its principal funding from governments, private foundations, and international and regional organizations, most of which are members of the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR). IFPRI gratefully acknowledges the generous unrestricted funding from Australia, Canada, China, Finland, France, Germany, India, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Norway, South Africa, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom, United States, and World Bank. Printed on alternative-fiber paper manufactured from agriculturally sustainable resources that are processed chlorine-free (PCF). Copyright © 2008 International Food Policy Research Institute. All rights reserved. Sections of this document may be reproduced without the permission of but with acknowledgment to IFPRI. Contact ifpri-copyright@cgiar.org for permission to reprint.
  • 14. INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE ETHIOPIAN ECONOMIC sustainable solutions for ending hunger and poverty ASSOCIATION Supported by the CGIAR IFPRI Research Brief 15–6 HOW CAN AFRICAN AGRICULTURE ADAPT TO CLIMATE CHANGE? INSIGHTS FROM ETHIOPIA AND SOUTH AFRICA Perceptions of Stakeholders on Climate Change and Adaptation Strategies in Ethiopia Assefa Admassie, Berhanu Adenew, and Abebe Tadege T he potential adverse effects of climate change on Ethiopia’s agricultural sector are a major concern, particularly given the country’s dependence on agricultural production. Securing increase the country’s frequency of both droughts and floods. The stakeholder forums and NAPA’s technical working groups sought participants’ perceptions of the impacts of changing climatic Ethiopia’s economic and social well-being in the face of climate conditions. According to participants, although both developed and change requires that policymakers and stakeholders work together developing countries are affected by climate change, developing to integrate climate change adaptation into the country’s develop- countries face greater challenges in overcoming its adverse conse- ment process. Three stakeholder discussion forums held in 2006 quences. Because Ethiopia is one of the least developed countries in in Addis Ababa, Awassa, and Bahir Dar as part of the project, the world, with a per capita income of less than US$130 in 2006, “Food and Water Security under Global Change: Developing workshop participants agreed that the country faces considerable Adaptive Capacity with a Focus on Rural Africa,” were attended hurdles in coping with the adverse impacts of long-term climate by representatives of the government, civil society, business sector, change. Low economic development, inadequate infrastructure, and and local communities. The forums elicited information to enable lack of institutional capacity all contribute to the country’s vulner- policymakers to make more informed decisions related to climate ability to the adverse impacts of climate change. change adaptation. In addition, Ethiopia’s economy is heavily dependent on The forums complemented ongoing efforts to develop the agriculture and faces increasing population growth. Ethiopia’s National Adaptation Program of Action (NAPA), which is agricultural sector contributes 47 percent of the country’s gross overseen by a steering committee representing government, national product and more than 80 percent of its exports. It also nongovernment, academic, and research institutions. Under employs about 85 percent of the country’s population of more than NAPA, multidisciplinary technical working groups have been 76 million people (noting that Ethiopia is the third-most populous formed to assess the country’s vulnerability to the adverse conse- country in Africa after Nigeria and Egypt). With a current growth quences of climate change, gauge current adaptation efforts, and rate of about 2.8 percent per year, Ethiopia’s population is expected identify ways in which public agencies could assist in minimizing to reach 129 million by 2030. Workshop participants emphasized the adverse impacts of climate change. In addition, two national that Ethiopia’s low level of economic development combined with its and eight regional workshops were conducted involving nearly 500 heavy dependence on agriculture and high population growth rate participants with various areas of expertise. Like the stakeholder make the country particularly susceptible to the adverse effects of forums, the workshops solicited information to create greater climate change. Negative climatic impacts on crop and livestock awareness of climate change, assess the extent of the area’s production could result in a nationwide food shortage and greatly vulnerability, and help identify adaptation options. hinder the economy. If appropriate steps are not taken, workshop This brief is based on a paper that presents findings from the participants felt that food insecurity, deepened poverty, and stakeholder discussion forums, as well as NAPA’s technical increased incidence of disease, such as malaria and yellow fever, working groups and workshops. These meetings explored stake- would be likely consequences. holders’ perceptions of vulnerability to climate change and A better understanding of the local dimensions of vulnerability is considered ways in which adaptation measures could be further therefore essential to develop appropriate adaptation measures that integrated into Ethiopia’s development process. will mitigate these adverse consequences. Accordingly, the stakeholder forums solicited input on those who are thought to be most vulner- able, based on economic, social, and environmental factors. VulnErAbiliTy To ThE AdVErSE The farming community was identified as the most vulnerable ConSEquEnCES of ClimATE ChAngE because of its dependence on agricultural production for its liveli- According to the National Meteorological Agency, long-term hood. Within the farming community, small-scale, rainfed climate change in Ethiopia is associated with changes in precipita- subsistence farmers as well as pastoralists were identified as more tion patterns, rainfall variability, and temperature, which could vulnerable to changing climatic conditions than others. In addition, 2033 K Street, NW • Washington, DC 20006-1002 USA • T. +1-202-862-5600 / Skype: IFPRIhomeoffice • F. +1-202-467-4439 • ifpri@cgiar.org www.ifpri.org
  • 15. farm households without assets and financial resources were adaptive capacity. In addition, workshop participants suggested identified as especially vulnerable, as their limited resources restrict implementing improved water resource development, land manage- them from easily adapting to the changing climate. ment, food security, health, and education programs. There is also Participants noted that throughout society those who are a need to expand nonagricultural employment opportunities and marginalized based on their sex, age, education, ethnicity, or provide skills training, particularly in rural areas. economic status are more vulnerable to negative climate change Another recommendation is greater investment in data impacts than others. Female-headed households in Ethiopia, for collection and research on climate change and extreme weather instance, were identified as particularly vulnerable to climate change conditions in Ethiopia. Environmental and drought monitoring given greater constraints to adaptation than male-headed house- systems should be introduced at national and regional levels to holds. Likewise, participants argued that those with low levels of monitor climate changes. Such systems would provide early education are more vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate warnings on predicted weather extremes, enabling stakeholders to change because they are less likely to be aware of long-term climate take corrective measures in advance to minimize potential change and tend to be more averse to the risks associated with some damages. Additionally, in-depth studies on vulnerability and adaption measures. adaptation should continue. In addition, certain regions of the country were identified as Participants also recommended expanding awareness of global being more susceptible to the negative effects of changing climatic warming and its potential impacts by providing reliable and conditions. In particular, participants identified those in the arid, up-to-date information to the public. Information about the semi-arid, and dry subhumid lowlands as being more vulnerable to appropriate adaptive measures should be made available to the the adverse effects of climate change than those living in the entire national community. As part of this effort, communication highlands. Lowland households with fewer and less diversified assets between policymakers, nongovernmental organizations, research than highland households are less able to invest in adaptation institutions, and the media, among other actors, should be measures and to meet their basic needs when faced with the adverse strengthened in order to ensure accurate information is available consequences of climate change. In addition, the lowlands have and widely disseminated. become increasingly depleted and, as a result, many pastoralists Finally, workshop participants recommended that all stake- from the lowlands have migrated to highland areas, leading to social holders be included in the development process. When considering conflicts over land. measures to reduce vulnerability to the adverse effects of climate change, government, civil society, the private sector, and local AdAPTATion mEASurES And PoliCy communities should all participate in the discussion. In particular, rECommEndATionS policymakers should be sure to draw on knowledge and experience Workshop participants identified the adaptation measures from local communities. By overlooking local knowledge, policies communities adopt when confronted with climate-related shocks. can constrain rather than enhance the adaptive capacity of These include diversification of livelihood sources, migration, communities. Furthermore, knowledge of the environment is participation in nonfarm activities, sale of assets, settlement and passed down through generations of experience of working on the resettlement activities, and the adoption of improved water land and, thus, local farm communities offer invaluable informa- management systems. To further mitigate the adverse effects of tion regarding adaptation to changing climatic conditions that climate change, participants considered ways in which adaptation would not likely be acquired through other channels. measures could be better integrated into Ethiopia’s development process and offered policy recommendations. for furThEr rEAding As part of the development process, participants recom- Admassie, A., and B. Adenew, Stakeholders’ Perceptions of Climate mended that social and physical infrastructure be improved and Change and Adaptation Strategies in Ethiopia, EEA Research Report institutions dealing with climate-related issues including the (Addis Ababa: Ethiopian Economic Association, 2008) Available at: meteorology agency be strengthened to increase the country’s http://www.eeaecon.org/Research%20Materials.htm. A. Admassie (aadmassie@yahoo.com) is director of the Ethiopian Economic Association (EEA)/Ethiopian Economic Policy Research Institute (EEPRI) in Ethiopia. b. Adenew (berhanuad@yahoo.com) is a senior researcher at EEA/EEPRI in Ethiopia. A. Tadege (a_tadege@yahoo.com) is head of the Research and Studies Depart- ment at the National Meteorological Agency (NMA) in Ethiopia. This series of IFPRI Research Briefs is based on research supported by the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development, Germany, under the project “Food and Water Security under Global Change: Developing Adaptive Capacity with a Focus on Rural Africa,” which forms part of the CGIAR Challenge Program on Water and Food. Through collaboration with the Center for Environmental Economics and Policy in Africa, the Ethiopian Develop- ment Research Institute, the Ethiopian Economics Association, and the University of Hamburg, the project aims to provide policymakers and stakeholders in Ethiopia and South Africa with tools to better understand and analyze the consequences of global change—in particular climate change—and to form policy decisions that facilitate adaptation in these countries and beyond. Financial Contributors and Partners IFPRI’s research, capacity strengthening, and communications work is made possible by its financial contributors and partners. IFPRI receives its principal funding from governments, private foundations, and international and regional organizations, most of which are members of the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR). IFPRI gratefully acknowledges the generous unrestricted funding from Australia, Canada, China, Finland, France, Germany, India, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Norway, South Africa, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom, United States, and World Bank. Printed on alternative-fiber paper manufactured from agriculturally sustainable resources that are processed chlorine-free (PCF). Copyright © 2008 International Food Policy Research Institute. All rights reserved. Sections of this document may be reproduced without the permission of but with acknowledgment to IFPRI. Contact ifpri-copyright@cgiar.org for permission to reprint.