1. CBRE Global In-Sights
Commercial Real Estate
Market Conditions in Canada
Presented by
John O’Bryan, Vice Chairman, CBRE Limited, Canada
Asieh Mansour, Head of Research, Americas and
Senior Managing Director, Global Research
October, 2011
The Global In-Sights podcasts PDF presentations are available for download on
www.cbre.com/EN/Research/pages/globalinsights.aspx.
Podcasts are also available through iTunes under podcasts and on the CBRE iPhone app.
Global Research and Consulting
2. Asieh Mansour
Asieh Mansour, Ph.D.
Head of Research, Americas and Senior
Managing Director, Global Research
Asieh directs Americas commercial real
estate market analysts, advises
Americas leadership and professionals
on economic issues, and serves as
spokesperson on the commercial real
estate environment. She has more than
20 years experience as a leading real
estate economist in commercial real
estate.
asieh.mansour@cbre.com
Global Research and Consulting
CB Richard Ellis | Page 2
3. John O’Bryan
John O’Bryan
Vice Chairman, CBRE Limited, Canada
John O’Bryan is Vice Chairman of CBRE’s
Limited, where his primary responsibility is to
oversee the marketing initiatives of the company.
John has over 35 years of experience in
brokerage and management positions. His career
began in 1974 when he founded and managed
the Appraisal Practice Group of Royal LePage. In
1985 John moved into the brokerage industry
where he was a top 10 broker for Royal Le Page
until 1990.
John has sold some of the highest profile assets
in Canada and was responsible for over $8 billion
in transaction activity. John has also completed
over 3 million SF of leasing activity in the last
decade.
john.obryan@cbre.com
Global Research and Consulting
CB Richard Ellis | Page 3
4. It Is All About Jobs!
2,000 200
Aug. ‘11
Nov. ‘10
2008 0 0
Canada Job Losses (000s)
U.S. Job Losses (000s)
-2,000 -200
-4,000 -400
-6,000 Aug. ‘11 -600
-8,000 -800
-10,000 -1000
0 10 20 30 40
US ( L ) Canada ( R )
Source: Statistics Canada and Bureau of Labor Statistics
Global Research and Consulting
CB Richard Ellis | Page 4
5. Canada “An Oasis of Stability”
Office – 9.4%
Industrial – 5.3%
CANADA Office – 8.2%
Industrial – 7.5%
Office – 17.9% Office – 20.6%
Industrial – 11.1% Industrial – 12.0% Office – 13.4%
Industrial – 13.7%
USA
Office – 19.7%
Industrial – 14.9%
Source: CBRE
Global Research and Consulting
CB Richard Ellis | Page 5
6. Bank Stability Makes the Difference
Soundest Banking Systems World’s 50 Safest Banks
• Canada (1) • KfW; Germany (1)
• South Africa (2) • Caisse des Depots et
• Panama (3) Consignations; France (2)
• Australia (4) • Bank Nederlandse
• Singapore (5) Gemeenten; Netherlands (3)
*** ***
• France (27) • Royal Bank of Canada (11)
• Japan (72) • Toronto-Dominion Bank (13)
• Germany(87) • Scotiabank (18)
• United States (90) • BMO Financial Group (30)
• United Kingdom (111) • CIBC (31)
Source: The World Economic Forum’s Global Competiveness Report Source: Global Finance
2011-2012
Global Research and Consulting
CB Richard Ellis | Page 6
7. Improvement in U.S. Office Vacancy Lags Canada
Forecast
24
20
16
Vacancy Rates (%)
12
8
4
0
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2012
2011
Canada US
Source: CBRE-EA Office Outlook, Winter 2011
Global Research and Consulting
CB Richard Ellis | Page 7
8. Canada Outperforms!
Forecast
16%
14%
12%
Availability Rate
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2012
2013
2014
2015
2011
Canada US
Source: CBRE-EA Canada Industrial Outlook XL, Spring 2011
Global Research and Consulting
CB Richard Ellis | Page 8
9. Retail Stability in Canada, U.S. Continues to Struggle
Forecast
14%
11%
Estimated Vacancy Rate (%)
8%
6%
3%
0%
2011
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Canada US
Source: CBRE EA Retail Spring Outlook 2011 and CBRE
Global Research and Consulting
CB Richard Ellis | Page 9
10. National Multi-Residential
$1,000 5.0
$800 4.0
Vacancy Rate (%)
$600 3.0
Average Monthly Rent
$400 2.0
$200 1.0
$0 0.0
Mid-2011
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Average Rent Vacancy
Source: CBRE, CMHC
Global Research and Consulting
CB Richard Ellis | Page 10
11. Who Bought in 2011 YTD? (Incl Hotel & ICI)
Multi-
Buyers Office Industrial Retail ICI-Land Hotel Total
Res
Private/Syndicates 24.8% 50.8% 36.6% 58.8% 95.3% 100.0% 43.8%
Foreign 5.8% 1.7% 0.0% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8%
Pension Fund 3.2% 3.1% 25.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.0%
Institutions 6.9% 9.5% 1.5% 0.0% 1.9% 0.0% 4.2%
REITs/REOCs 56.5% 31.3% 36.6% 34.3% 1.6% 0.0% 37.7%
Private Equity 2.9% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% 0.0% 1.5%
Source: CBRE Limited/RealNet Canada
Global Research and Consulting
CB Richard Ellis | Page 11
12. Cap Rates Hit 2007 Levels – Going Lower?
11%
10%
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1Q11 2Q11
Office - CBD A Industrial - A & B Retail - Neighbourhood Multi-Res - B
Source: CBRE
Global Research and Consulting
CB Richard Ellis | Page 12
13. Metro Toronto Convention Centre Complex
$237.4 Million
1.95M SF Development on 7.41 Acres
Incorporates:
• 225, 255& 277 Front Street West
• 586 Room InterContinental Hotel
• 265,000 SF Class A Office Tower
• 1,200 Parking Stall
Vendor: Canada Lands CLC Limited
Purchaser: Oxford Properties Group
Deal Date: September 14, 2011
Global Research and Consulting
CB Richard Ellis | Page 13
16. CBRE Global In-Sights
Commercial Real Estate
Market Conditions in Canada
Presented by
John O’Bryan, Vice Chairman, CBRE Limited, Canada
Asieh Mansour, Head of Research, Americas and
Senior Managing Director, Global Research
October, 2011
The Global In-Sights podcasts PDF presentations are available for download on
www.cbre.com/EN/Research/pages/globalinsights.aspx.
Podcasts are also available through iTunes under podcasts and on the CBRE iPhone app.
Global Research and Consulting
