Presentation 'Natural gas for Ukraine, Russia and Europe: where next?' by Simon Pirani, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, at Lviv International Security Forum, 15-16 April, 2010
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1. Natural gas for Ukraine, Russia and Europe: where next? Simon Pirani Senior Research Fellow Oxford Institute for Energy Studies International Security Forum, Lviv, 16 April 2010
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3. Observed gas demand, OECD Europe (bcm) It may return to pre-crisis levels only in 2013-14 Source: IEA
4. Changes in the European market Oil-linked prices may not be with us forever Source: Howard Rogers (OIES), Atlantic Basin LNG / Argus, Gas Matters
5. Natural gas imports to OECD Europe first nine months of the year, Bcm Russia lost market share
6. A very different outlook for Russia and Gazprom Worries about a ‘supply squeeze’ have gone. Now there are questions about long-term demand. Gazprom’s big projects are being delayed ... Gazprom will face competition in Europe from LNG... Russia’s dominance in central Asia has been undermined by the Turkmenistan-China pipeline ... In Russia, Gazprom is under pressure from the oil companies and Novatek ...
7. Main sources of supply to Russia’s gas balance, 2008-2009 (bcm)
10. Russian gas export capacity to Europe up to 2015: transit via Ukraine could be reduced
11. Ukraine’s demand collapse, 2009 monthly consumption, as % of same month in 2008 Demand destruction concentrated in industry, but slowly recovering since the spring
12. Ukraine’s 2009 gas imports problem was converted into a cash problem ... the IMF counted $3bn Naftogaz operating deficit as part of Ukraine’s fiscal shortfall * Source: energy ministry, Naftogaz. ** Assuming oil at $70/bbl But what will happen in 2010? Volume of imports Price Import bill 2009 (est) 28.51 Bcm $231.12 (average) $6.59 billion 2010 (proj’n)** 32.5 Bcm $290-300 (average) $9.42-9.75 billion
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Notes de l'éditeur
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Title of Presentation Oxford Institute for Energy Studies
Shell Natural Gas Course 3.02
Title of Presentation Oxford Institute for Energy Studies
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Title of Presentation Oxford Institute for Energy Studies
Title of Presentation Oxford Institute for Energy Studies
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Title of Presentation Oxford Institute for Energy Studies Title of Presentation Oxford Institute for Energy Studies Assoc gas total 45.6 cf 42.1 in 08 +8.2% of which GP 2.2
Title of Presentation Oxford Institute for Energy Studies Title of Presentation Oxford Institute for Energy Studies