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Mitigation Research Findings
      National Policy Workshop, June 2011,
Agricultural GHG emissions (IPCC)
• 10–12% global anthropogenic GHG emissions,
  6.8 Gt of CO2e
• HIGHER than transport, power and industrial
  sectors
• 74% from developing countries (increasing)

Indirect
• Land use change 17- 18% - higher than all
  direct agricultural sources
Africa’s Low Contribution to GHG Emissions
USA         = 22 t
UK          = 8.9 t
South Africa = 8.3 t
Libya       = 8t
Gabon       = 2.9 t      Africa’s contribution to greenhouse
China       = 2.8 tgases is insignificant, except for land
Zimbabwe = 2.6 tuse change
Nigeria     = 1.6 t      Agriculture: Highest emitters: South
Kenya       = 0.3 tAsia, Southeast Asia and Latin
Tanzania    = 0.2 tAmerica
Burkina Faso = 0.1 t
                                           Source: Ange, FARA 2010, 1997
                                           data
Emissions from land use change in Africa
• Most CO2 from land use changes
  (17% of total GHG emissions) originates
  from the tropics (8.5Gt CO2e/yr)
• Africa contributes 20%
• 50% of annual global carbon from
  burning natural vegetation is from
  Africa.
• Wind born dust (increased by
  desertification and soil degradation) adds to
  effect of warming.

                                                  Source: Ange, FARA 2010
Managing mitigation and food security
                    • Improve emissions
                     estimates & baselines
                    • Estimate mitigation
                      potential
                    • Management
                      implications

                     Winrock International:
                      Sandra Brown, Alex
                      Grais, Stephen
                      Ambagis, and Timothy
                      Pearson
Improved emissions calculations
• Remote sensing data for land area (2006)
• Activity data on GHG sources, e.g.,
  livestock numbers, fertilizer
  consumption
• Emission factors for GHG sources
• Combine activity data with emission factors
  to produce estimates of GHG emissions for
  agriculture
Total annual GHG emissions
   1,000 t CO2e, from land-use change, livestock, nitrogen fertilizer consumption
                     and fires in grazing lands (Brown et al 2011)
                            Land-Use                 Nitrogen Grazing Area               Tota
   Region      Country                   Livestock                            Total
                             Change                  Fertilizer    Burned              from N
East Africa Ethiopia              7,339       41,966          339      1,254    50,897 32,7
            Kenya                 1,812       11,988          323        232    14,356 12,0
            Tanzania              1,833       13,935           42      1,736    17,546 28,0
            Uganda                1,112        6,204           18        524     7,858    5,7

            Subtotal          12,097      74,093         722        3,745      90,657    78,6

West Africa Burkina Faso         273       8,779          18         306        9,377     4,5
            Ghana              1,664       1,865          55         491        4,076     4,6
            Mali                 440       9,270          64         241       10,015     7,0
            Niger                 31      10,405          14            9      10,460     6,2
            Senegal              369       3,364          84         249        4,066     4,5
            Subtotal           2,778      33,683         235        1,297      37,993    26,9

            Grand Total       14,874     107,776          957       5,043      128,649 105,
Increases in cropland area
  West Africa 2001-2006
Area of grazing lands burned 2001-
               2007




                                                         Brown et
                                                         al, 2011
      Burned area data from
      http://bioval.jrc.ec.europa.eu/products/burnt_areas_L3JRC/GlobalBurnt
      eas2000-2007.php
Reduce soil CO2 emissions?
Scenarios
• Severely degraded grazing lands ->
Improved management with medium or high inputs
                            2 to 6 tCO2e/ha/yr
• Rainfed cultivation with full tillage ->
      Reduced tillage with different levels of nutrient inputs
                              0.5 to 5 tCO2e/ha/yr
• Reduced tillage rainfed cultivation ->
      Native ecosystems 1.0 t CO2e/ha/yr to 4.1 t CO2e/ha/yr
• Combined mosaic vegetation (shifting cultivation) ->
      Native ecosystems 1-8 tCO2e/ha/yr
if above ground biomass C included: or 5-13 tCO2e/ha/yr
Opportunities to reduce emissions or
  increase sequestration in Mali
 Management option      Mitigation Potential   Actions required


 Livestock              High                   Technical options?


 Soil C sequestration   Moderate               Incentives? Monitoring?

 Reduced burning        Moderate               Technical options?


 Land rehabilitation    Moderate               Investment


 Fertilizer             Low                    Future efficiencies,
                                               sustainable
                                               intensification?
Questions
• Current soil carbon
  stocks?
• Extent of degraded
  lands?
• Effects of changing
   management? Practicality? Incentives?
• Alternatives to burning and better controlling fire?
Improving measurement
• Reduce scale of analysis and focus on key
  agricultural areas of each country
• Use higher resolution remote sensing data for
  more accurate data on land cover/land use
  and area burned
• Improve monitoring of activities:
  – number of ruminant animals
  – quantity of N fertilizer used
  – carbon stocks of burned areas of grazing lands
Other research relevant to Mali
• Baseline emissions and scenarios–site level
• GHG quantification
 - Simple and cost effective MRV
 - Livestock system inventory methods
 - Regional capacity building
• Incentives
 - Costs, benefits and adoption barriers
 - Delivery mechanisms
Other CCAFS research
• Improving carbon market benefits for
farmers – EcoAgriculture Partners+, E.
Africa + CCI

• Intensification of cocoa farming to
reduce deforestation ( IITA, Ghana)

•Role of agriculture in national REDD+
readiness proposals – Gabrielle Kissinger
Role of agriculture in REDD+




2011
Source:
Kissinger
Improving benefits from carbon
     market projects involving farmer
7 projects In collaboration with Ecoagriculture, ICRAF:
• Cocoa Carbon Initiative, Ghana
• Vi Agroforestry, CARE, TIST, Kenya
•Humbo Reforestation Project, World Vision, Ethiopia
•Ecotrust, NFA, Uganda

Lessons
          -Real benefits from yields, not payments ($2/yr)
          - Need to decrease costs and risks
          - Pre-existing institutions, upfront finance critical
          -Monitoring livelihoods not a priority
Other research relevant to West
            Africa Mali
• Role of agriculture in national REDD+
readiness proposals – Gabrielle Kissinger

• Improving carbon market benefits for
farmers – EcoAgriculture Partners+, Africa

• Intensification of cocoa farming to
reduce deforestation ( IITA, Ghana)
Mapped distribution of increases in
cropland area for East Africa 2001 - 2006




                                    Brown et
                                    al, 2011
Total annual GHG emissions
   1,000 t CO2e, from land-use change, livestock, nitrogen fertilizer consumption
                     and fires in grazing lands (Brown et al 2011)
                            Land-Use                 Nitrogen Grazing Area               Tota
   Region      Country                   Livestock                            Total
                             Change                  Fertilizer    Burned              from N
East Africa Ethiopia              7,339       41,966          339      1,254    50,897 32,7
            Kenya                 1,812       11,988          323        232    14,356 12,0
            Tanzania              1,833       13,935           42      1,736    17,546 28,0
            Uganda                1,112        6,204           18        524     7,858    5,7

            Subtotal          12,097      74,093         722        3,745      90,657    78,6

West Africa Burkina Faso         273       8,779          18         306        9,377     4,5
            Ghana              1,664       1,865          55         491        4,076     4,6
            Mali                 440       9,270          64         241       10,015     7,0
            Niger                 31      10,405          14            9      10,460     6,2
            Senegal              369       3,364          84         249        4,066     4,5
            Subtotal           2,778      33,683         235        1,297      37,993    26,9

            Grand Total       14,874     107,776          957       5,043      128,649 105,
Total annual GHG emissions
   1,000 t CO2e, from land-use change, livestock, nitrogen fertilizer consumption
                     and fires in grazing lands (Brown et al 2011)
                            Land-Use                 Nitrogen Grazing Area               Tota
   Region      Country                   Livestock                            Total
                             Change                  Fertilizer    Burned              from N
East Africa Ethiopia              7,339       41,966          339      1,254    50,897 32,7
            Kenya                 1,812       11,988          323        232    14,356 12,0
            Tanzania              1,833       13,935           42      1,736    17,546 28,0
            Uganda                1,112        6,204           18        524     7,858    5,7

            Subtotal          12,097      74,093         722        3,745      90,657    78,6

West Africa Burkina Faso         273       8,779          18         306        9,377     4,5
            Ghana              1,664       1,865          55         491        4,076     4,6
            Mali                 440       9,270          64         241       10,015     7,0
            Niger                 31      10,405          14            9      10,460     6,2
            Senegal              369       3,364          84         249        4,066     4,5
            Subtotal           2,778      33,683         235        1,297      37,993    26,9

            Grand Total       14,874     107,776          957       5,043      128,649 105,
Total annual GHG emissions
    1,000 tCO2e from land-use change, livestock, nitrogen fertilizer consumption
                   and fires in grazing lands (Brown et al 2011)
                            Land-Use                  Nitrogen Grazing Area                 Tota
   Region        Country                 Livestock                             Total
                             Change                   Fertilizer   Burned                 from N
East Africa   Ethiopia           7,339       41,966            339     1,254     50,897     32,7
              Kenya              1,812       11,988            323       232     14,356     12,0
              Tanzania           1,833       13,935             42     1,736     17,546     28,0
              Uganda             1,112        6,204             18       524      7,858      5,7

              Subtotal         12,097        74,093         722       3,745      90,657     78,6

West Africa Burkina Faso          273         8,779          18        306        9,377      4,5
            Ghana               1,664         1,865          55        491        4,076      4,6
            Mali                  440         9,270          64        241       10,015      7,0
            Niger                  31        10,405          14           9      10,460      6,2
            Senegal               369         3,364          84        249        4,066      4,5
            Subtotal            2,778        33,683         235       1,297      37,993     26,9

              Grand Total      14,874       107,776         957        5,043    128,649 105,5
Mapping vulnerability to climate
                change




Pa = pasture, Cr = irrigated cropping, Lg = length of growing period >= 60 days.
Evaluation of Forest Carbon
    Partnership Facility R-PPs: Ghana
Is proposed REDD+ strategy adequate to affect agricultural
drivers
     • Need more info: clearer after policy studies completed
     • Mainstream REDD+ in new low carbon growth plan
     • Reform tree tenure and benefit sharing for smallholders
     • Promote cocoa compatible with REDD+, e.g. shade tolerant
     spp.

Are there clear enough multisectoral links to affect agricultural
drivers?
     • ENRAC and National Climate Change Committee well
      positioned
     • How will low carbon growth plan support coordination?
      (spatial plans, legal tools)                      Kissinger 2011
Mitigation Research Findings National Policy Workshop

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Mitigation Research Findings National Policy Workshop

  • 1. Mitigation Research Findings National Policy Workshop, June 2011,
  • 2. Agricultural GHG emissions (IPCC) • 10–12% global anthropogenic GHG emissions, 6.8 Gt of CO2e • HIGHER than transport, power and industrial sectors • 74% from developing countries (increasing) Indirect • Land use change 17- 18% - higher than all direct agricultural sources
  • 3. Africa’s Low Contribution to GHG Emissions USA = 22 t UK = 8.9 t South Africa = 8.3 t Libya = 8t Gabon = 2.9 t Africa’s contribution to greenhouse China = 2.8 tgases is insignificant, except for land Zimbabwe = 2.6 tuse change Nigeria = 1.6 t Agriculture: Highest emitters: South Kenya = 0.3 tAsia, Southeast Asia and Latin Tanzania = 0.2 tAmerica Burkina Faso = 0.1 t Source: Ange, FARA 2010, 1997 data
  • 4. Emissions from land use change in Africa • Most CO2 from land use changes (17% of total GHG emissions) originates from the tropics (8.5Gt CO2e/yr) • Africa contributes 20% • 50% of annual global carbon from burning natural vegetation is from Africa. • Wind born dust (increased by desertification and soil degradation) adds to effect of warming. Source: Ange, FARA 2010
  • 5. Managing mitigation and food security • Improve emissions estimates & baselines • Estimate mitigation potential • Management implications Winrock International: Sandra Brown, Alex Grais, Stephen Ambagis, and Timothy Pearson
  • 6. Improved emissions calculations • Remote sensing data for land area (2006) • Activity data on GHG sources, e.g., livestock numbers, fertilizer consumption • Emission factors for GHG sources • Combine activity data with emission factors to produce estimates of GHG emissions for agriculture
  • 7.
  • 8. Total annual GHG emissions 1,000 t CO2e, from land-use change, livestock, nitrogen fertilizer consumption and fires in grazing lands (Brown et al 2011) Land-Use Nitrogen Grazing Area Tota Region Country Livestock Total Change Fertilizer Burned from N East Africa Ethiopia 7,339 41,966 339 1,254 50,897 32,7 Kenya 1,812 11,988 323 232 14,356 12,0 Tanzania 1,833 13,935 42 1,736 17,546 28,0 Uganda 1,112 6,204 18 524 7,858 5,7 Subtotal 12,097 74,093 722 3,745 90,657 78,6 West Africa Burkina Faso 273 8,779 18 306 9,377 4,5 Ghana 1,664 1,865 55 491 4,076 4,6 Mali 440 9,270 64 241 10,015 7,0 Niger 31 10,405 14 9 10,460 6,2 Senegal 369 3,364 84 249 4,066 4,5 Subtotal 2,778 33,683 235 1,297 37,993 26,9 Grand Total 14,874 107,776 957 5,043 128,649 105,
  • 9. Increases in cropland area West Africa 2001-2006
  • 10. Area of grazing lands burned 2001- 2007 Brown et al, 2011 Burned area data from http://bioval.jrc.ec.europa.eu/products/burnt_areas_L3JRC/GlobalBurnt eas2000-2007.php
  • 11. Reduce soil CO2 emissions? Scenarios • Severely degraded grazing lands -> Improved management with medium or high inputs 2 to 6 tCO2e/ha/yr • Rainfed cultivation with full tillage -> Reduced tillage with different levels of nutrient inputs 0.5 to 5 tCO2e/ha/yr • Reduced tillage rainfed cultivation -> Native ecosystems 1.0 t CO2e/ha/yr to 4.1 t CO2e/ha/yr • Combined mosaic vegetation (shifting cultivation) -> Native ecosystems 1-8 tCO2e/ha/yr if above ground biomass C included: or 5-13 tCO2e/ha/yr
  • 12. Opportunities to reduce emissions or increase sequestration in Mali Management option Mitigation Potential Actions required Livestock High Technical options? Soil C sequestration Moderate Incentives? Monitoring? Reduced burning Moderate Technical options? Land rehabilitation Moderate Investment Fertilizer Low Future efficiencies, sustainable intensification?
  • 13. Questions • Current soil carbon stocks? • Extent of degraded lands? • Effects of changing management? Practicality? Incentives? • Alternatives to burning and better controlling fire?
  • 14. Improving measurement • Reduce scale of analysis and focus on key agricultural areas of each country • Use higher resolution remote sensing data for more accurate data on land cover/land use and area burned • Improve monitoring of activities: – number of ruminant animals – quantity of N fertilizer used – carbon stocks of burned areas of grazing lands
  • 15. Other research relevant to Mali • Baseline emissions and scenarios–site level • GHG quantification - Simple and cost effective MRV - Livestock system inventory methods - Regional capacity building • Incentives - Costs, benefits and adoption barriers - Delivery mechanisms
  • 16. Other CCAFS research • Improving carbon market benefits for farmers – EcoAgriculture Partners+, E. Africa + CCI • Intensification of cocoa farming to reduce deforestation ( IITA, Ghana) •Role of agriculture in national REDD+ readiness proposals – Gabrielle Kissinger
  • 17. Role of agriculture in REDD+ 2011 Source: Kissinger
  • 18. Improving benefits from carbon market projects involving farmer 7 projects In collaboration with Ecoagriculture, ICRAF: • Cocoa Carbon Initiative, Ghana • Vi Agroforestry, CARE, TIST, Kenya •Humbo Reforestation Project, World Vision, Ethiopia •Ecotrust, NFA, Uganda Lessons -Real benefits from yields, not payments ($2/yr) - Need to decrease costs and risks - Pre-existing institutions, upfront finance critical -Monitoring livelihoods not a priority
  • 19.
  • 20. Other research relevant to West Africa Mali • Role of agriculture in national REDD+ readiness proposals – Gabrielle Kissinger • Improving carbon market benefits for farmers – EcoAgriculture Partners+, Africa • Intensification of cocoa farming to reduce deforestation ( IITA, Ghana)
  • 21. Mapped distribution of increases in cropland area for East Africa 2001 - 2006 Brown et al, 2011
  • 22. Total annual GHG emissions 1,000 t CO2e, from land-use change, livestock, nitrogen fertilizer consumption and fires in grazing lands (Brown et al 2011) Land-Use Nitrogen Grazing Area Tota Region Country Livestock Total Change Fertilizer Burned from N East Africa Ethiopia 7,339 41,966 339 1,254 50,897 32,7 Kenya 1,812 11,988 323 232 14,356 12,0 Tanzania 1,833 13,935 42 1,736 17,546 28,0 Uganda 1,112 6,204 18 524 7,858 5,7 Subtotal 12,097 74,093 722 3,745 90,657 78,6 West Africa Burkina Faso 273 8,779 18 306 9,377 4,5 Ghana 1,664 1,865 55 491 4,076 4,6 Mali 440 9,270 64 241 10,015 7,0 Niger 31 10,405 14 9 10,460 6,2 Senegal 369 3,364 84 249 4,066 4,5 Subtotal 2,778 33,683 235 1,297 37,993 26,9 Grand Total 14,874 107,776 957 5,043 128,649 105,
  • 23. Total annual GHG emissions 1,000 t CO2e, from land-use change, livestock, nitrogen fertilizer consumption and fires in grazing lands (Brown et al 2011) Land-Use Nitrogen Grazing Area Tota Region Country Livestock Total Change Fertilizer Burned from N East Africa Ethiopia 7,339 41,966 339 1,254 50,897 32,7 Kenya 1,812 11,988 323 232 14,356 12,0 Tanzania 1,833 13,935 42 1,736 17,546 28,0 Uganda 1,112 6,204 18 524 7,858 5,7 Subtotal 12,097 74,093 722 3,745 90,657 78,6 West Africa Burkina Faso 273 8,779 18 306 9,377 4,5 Ghana 1,664 1,865 55 491 4,076 4,6 Mali 440 9,270 64 241 10,015 7,0 Niger 31 10,405 14 9 10,460 6,2 Senegal 369 3,364 84 249 4,066 4,5 Subtotal 2,778 33,683 235 1,297 37,993 26,9 Grand Total 14,874 107,776 957 5,043 128,649 105,
  • 24. Total annual GHG emissions 1,000 tCO2e from land-use change, livestock, nitrogen fertilizer consumption and fires in grazing lands (Brown et al 2011) Land-Use Nitrogen Grazing Area Tota Region Country Livestock Total Change Fertilizer Burned from N East Africa Ethiopia 7,339 41,966 339 1,254 50,897 32,7 Kenya 1,812 11,988 323 232 14,356 12,0 Tanzania 1,833 13,935 42 1,736 17,546 28,0 Uganda 1,112 6,204 18 524 7,858 5,7 Subtotal 12,097 74,093 722 3,745 90,657 78,6 West Africa Burkina Faso 273 8,779 18 306 9,377 4,5 Ghana 1,664 1,865 55 491 4,076 4,6 Mali 440 9,270 64 241 10,015 7,0 Niger 31 10,405 14 9 10,460 6,2 Senegal 369 3,364 84 249 4,066 4,5 Subtotal 2,778 33,683 235 1,297 37,993 26,9 Grand Total 14,874 107,776 957 5,043 128,649 105,5
  • 25. Mapping vulnerability to climate change Pa = pasture, Cr = irrigated cropping, Lg = length of growing period >= 60 days.
  • 26. Evaluation of Forest Carbon Partnership Facility R-PPs: Ghana Is proposed REDD+ strategy adequate to affect agricultural drivers • Need more info: clearer after policy studies completed • Mainstream REDD+ in new low carbon growth plan • Reform tree tenure and benefit sharing for smallholders • Promote cocoa compatible with REDD+, e.g. shade tolerant spp. Are there clear enough multisectoral links to affect agricultural drivers? • ENRAC and National Climate Change Committee well positioned • How will low carbon growth plan support coordination? (spatial plans, legal tools) Kissinger 2011

Notes de l'éditeur

  1. Biomass burning and wind born dust (increased by desertification and soil degradation) produce aerosols that add to warming.
  2. In this report we were unable to detail emissions associated with rice cultivation due to the inability to define area of rice cultivation and rice cultivation practices. Worldwide it is estimated that rice production is responsible for about 25% of anthropogenic CH4 emissions (Denman et al. 2007).
  3. Livestock 83% total, fertilizer 0.7%, burning (Ch4 and N20) 4%500 m resolution HIGH uncertainty likely
  4. the top 30 cm of soil (recommended depth for such analysis and likely to persist for 20 yr only; according to the IPCC 2006)The estimates given above in section 5.1 indicate that the mitigation potential from changing tillage practices directly correlates with the level of inputs with shifts from low to high inputs with manure providing the greatest mitigation potential.
  5. However, it is unclear what actual tillage/input combinations are currently practiced in the focal countries and what the potential is for change, including how to overcome economic and cultural barriers.
  6. Livestock 83% total, fertilizer 0.7%, burning (Ch4 and N20) 4%500 m resolution HIGH uncertainty likely
  7. Livestock 83% total, fertilizer 0.7%, burning (Ch4 and N20) 4%500 m resolution HIGH uncertainty likely
  8. Livestock 83% total, fertilizer 0.7%, burning (Ch4 and N20) 4%500 m resolution HIGH uncertainty likely
  9. Map 2.7. Areas where maximum temperature during the primary growing season is currently < 300C but will flip to > 300 C by 2050 (during the primary growing season).Map 2.3.Areas that will flip from LGP >120 days in the 2000s to LGP < 120 days by 2050