Presentation by Mark New, CCAFS Science Workshop, Bonn, 10th June 2011

1. Climate Change and Sustainable Agricultural Intensification Mark New

2. Approaches to Intensification Grow crops in new areas Improve productivity in existing areas Multiple cropping Improved or different crop varieties Enhanced inputs – irrigation, fertiliser, etc. Better farm management Economic and institutional incentives Climate change may limit or enable intensification

3. Climate Change Uncertainty

4. Uncertainty Increases as Function of… Spatial scale Global -> regional -> local Temporal scale Decadal -> annual -> monthly -> daily Means -> variance -> extreme events Process complexity Temperature -> humidity -> precipitation Tropics -> mid-latitudes -> sub-tropics

5. IGP Monsoon Rainfall – GCM Skill

6. IGP Monsoon Rainfall – GCM Projections

7. Does Downscaling “Add Value”? 300km Global Model 50km Regional Model Observed 10km 25km Regional Model

8. Does Downscaling “Add Value”? 10 RCMs, driven by the same GCM

9. Climate Uncertainty is Here to Stay In the near term Internal variability Model uncertainty Longer term Scenario / forcing uncertainty Model uncertainty Downscaling Improved understanding of uncertainty?

10. So What are the Options?Climate Compatible Intensification Strategies that are robust across climate uncertainties Portfolios of crop varieties or generalist crops Flexibility in options to avoid maladaptation Enhance resilience / productivity to current climate stresses Risk management – learning from seasonal forecasting Informed by appropriate analysis of climate model data

11. Better Analysis of Climate Model Data Model evaluation and filtering with agriculturally relevant indices

12. Model Evaluation & Filtering

13. Analysis of New Climate Model Data New Centennial GCM Projections Multi GCM-RCM ensembles – CORDEX New decadal forecasts