Climate change mitigation and agricultural development scenarios for the high plains of Eastern Colombia Poster presented at the 3rd Global Science Conference on Climate-Smart Agriculture in Montpellier. Read more: http://ccafs.cgiar.org/3rd-global-science-conference-%E2%80%9Cclimate-smart-agriculture-2015%E2%80%9D#.VRurLUesXX4

1. Agricultural land use intensification can potentially reduce net emissions in the high
plains of Eastern Colombia (Figure 1). However, greater intensification depends on
economic feasibility and the practicality of land-use change, topics that have not yet
been thoroughly investigated. This study used greenhouse gas and opportunity cost
estimation tools to evaluate profitability of land-use changes and agricultural practices in
the context of their impacts on carbon emissions and accumulation. The study combined
field measurements and secondary information on carbon stocks, a 2010 land-use map
and projections of future land use changes and estimates of the profitability of land-use.
The results showed that several ongoing land use transitions – from native savanna to
improved pastures and tree based systems – lead to reduced net emissions and are
profitable for agricultural producers. Under different scenarios of future land use change,
higher levels of carbon could be sequestered in the coming decade. While there may be
overall carbon accumulation, emissions would also rise from increasing agricultural land
use intensification. Net emissions in this region could potentially be reduced at a level
equivalent to 5% of Colombia’s overall emissions from deforestation and land-use
change. More research is needed to improve estimates and better understand the
economics and finance of emissions policies and programs.
This research was made possible by the support of Colombia’s Ministry of
Agriculture and Rural Development (MADR) and National Agricultural
Research Institute (CORPOICA). This work was undertaken as part of the
CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security
(CCAFS), which is a strategic partnership of CGIAR and Future Earth. Support
was also provided by the CGIAR Research Program on Forest Trees and
Agroforestry (FTA). The views expressed in this document cannot be taken to
reflect the official opinions of the government of Colombia, the CGIAR or
Future Earth.
Policies and programs that promote already-existing land use changes in the high plains of Eastern Colombia could substantially reduce net emissions from
deforestation and land-use change. A larger number of cattle ranchers could cultivate improved pastures and/or develop silvopastoral systems. Development of tree
plantations – rubber, oil palm and timber – is a high carbon development pathway. The changes may be feasible because they are profitable to agricultural producers.
One possible reason that we do not see more of these changes already is because farmers do not have the initial startup cost that would be needed to make
investments in high carbon land-use. Other important factors may be the lack of infrastructure for agricultural development, land speculation and cultural factors.
Intensifying agricultural land use is difficult where farms are isolated and remote, with inadequate transport networks. The high plains have historically been the target
of land speculation, with owners more interested in the value of their land for future sale, as opposed to its current agricultural production capacity. Livestock keepers
may lack the knowledge and interest in changing their land-use. Plantation forestry is relatively new to the area, hindering the potential for rapid growth. Despite
these obstacles, the potential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the high plains region is very high. Greater consideration of other ecosystems services is
needed to guide land use planning in the region. More research needs to be carried out to guide policies and programs for sustainable development in the region.
G. Hyman1, A. Castro2, I.M. Rao1, M. Peters1, A. Loboguerrero1,3 O. Rivera1 and S. Castaño1
(1) International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Cali, Colombia; (2) Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Rome, Italy;
(3) CGIAR Research on Climate Change and Agricultural Food Security (CCAFS)
Climate change mitigation and agricultural development
scenarios for the high plains of Eastern Colombia
𝑂𝑝𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑢𝑛𝑖𝑡𝑦
𝑐𝑜𝑠𝑡
𝑈𝑆$
𝑡𝐶𝑂2 𝑒
=
𝑁𝑃𝑉𝑖𝑛𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑎𝑙 − 𝑁𝑃𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑛𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒
𝑈𝑆$
ℎ𝑎
𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑏𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑛𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑎𝑙 − 𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑏𝑜𝑛 𝑎𝑙𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑛𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒
𝑡𝐶
ℎ𝑎
∗ 3.67
𝑡𝐶𝑂2 𝑒
𝑡𝐶
The study combines information on carbon stocks, land-use systems and the profitability
of land-use systems to estimate how changes in any of these variables would affect
greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and livelihoods. The method applies the concept of
opportunity costs to account for the land use change impacts on GHG and livelihoods
from alternative land uses and practices. The critical part of the analysis quantifies these
changes according to the following equation:
The opportunity cost is expressed as the profitability (or net present value – NPV) of
changing a land-use per ton of CO2 equivalent of GHG emitted or sequestered in relation
to that environmental impact change. The change in net present value (VPN) or
profitability of an initial land-use activity compared to an alternative activity is calculated.
Then, the associated changes in carbon stocks between these activities are calculated. By
expressing these changes in terms of the profitability of the change per ton of GHG
emitted or sequestered, we can better understand the balance and trade-offs between
different land uses in terms of their livelihood and environmental impacts.
Category
Net
present
value (US$
per ha)
Oil palm 914
Forestry plantation 500
Crop-pasture-tree
mosaic
500
Pasture with trees 426
Weedy pastures 426
Cultivated Pastures 426
Rubber 418
Rice 415
Other annual crops 173
Native savanna 100
Forest 0
Secondary Vegetation 0
Table 1. Above and below ground carbon stocks and emissions fluxes in the Eastern plains
of Colombia in Mg C ha-1.
Land Use 2010-2011 Area
(ha)
Area
(%)
Native savanna 324,021 33.39
Forest 182,917 18.85
Mosaic of crops, pastures and trees 134,248 13.83
Pastures 117,674 12.13
Without vegetation (water, bare
soil, clouds, transportation
infrastructure, urban)
67,442 6.95
Secondary vegetation 44,049 4.54
Pastures with trees 39,775 4.1
Forest plantation 20,576 2.12
Oil palm 12,293 1.27
Other annual crops 11,912 1.23
Rubber 10,474 1.08
Rice 3,370 0.35
Weedy pastures 1,615 0.17
TOTAL 970,366 100
Table 2. Land Use in the high plains of Eastern Colombia.
Table 3. Net present value (NPV)
in the high plains of Eastern
Colombia
Figure 2. Averages and
ranges of soil carbon
stock in the high plains
of Eastern Colombia.
Figure 3. Expected land use changes under a “business as
usual” scenario in the high plains of Eastern Colombia.
Figure 4. Opportunity cost curve for the high plains of Eastern Colombia.
-40,000,000
-35,000,000
-30,000,000
-25,000,000
-20,000,000
-15,000,000
-10,000,000
-5,000,000
0
2002-20010 2010-2018 2018-2026 2026-2034 2034-2042
Cumulativenetemission
MgCO2eq
Time period
BAU
50%
100%
Above ground carbon stocks reported here are a combination of primary data from field
measurements and values from similar environments reported in the literature (Table 1; MADR-
CORPOICA-CIAT. 2012; Lavelle et al., 2014).
Land uses in the study area are dominated by native
savannas, forests, improved pastures and mosaics of these
3 land covers (Table 2; Rodriguez et al., 2012). According to
Rodriguez and others (2012), over one third or nearly
325,000 ha of the region is comprised of native savannas
with varying densities of grasses, shrubs and small trees.
The 2nd most abundant land use/land cover is forests,
making up less than 20% of the region. Many of these
forests are gallery forests along water courses. Improved
pastures make up 12% of the study area and are growing.
Tree plantations and annual crops cover relatively small
proportions of the study area but are growing rapidly.
The net present values of land-use in
the high plains vary according to the
intensity of the land-use activity (Table
3). While these values are preliminary,
they do show that native savanna – the
largest land-use area – is less profitable
than several other land-use activities
that have higher carbon stocks, such as
oil palm, forestry plantations, cultivated
pastures and others.
Average belowground and above ground carbon stocks vary substantially by land-use across the
region. Soil carbon stocks measured in the field during this study varied from less than 50 tons of
carbon per hectare in forested areas to over 150 tons per hectare in sugarcane areas (Figure 2).
Lower soil carbon stocks were found in rice areas and natural savanna areas. Intermediate values
were found in tree plantations such as oil palm, rubber and timber plantations as well as
improved pastures. Areas with sugarcane, fragmented forests and pastures with trees had some
of the highest values for belowground carbon stocks.
Land use intensification is expected to be the dominant land use change over the next decades
(Figure 3). The estimates of future land use reported here are based on the scientific literature and
government statistics (Etter et al., 2010; MADR, 2014). The most important change is the
reduction of area in native savanna. Forested areas also are expected to continue decreasing.
Cultivated pastures are expected to increase and will become the land-use with the largest area.
Recent trends point to increases in timber, oil palm and rubber plantations. Rice and other annual
crops will also increase in the coming years. All the changes described above reflect growing
interest in the high plains region as a focus of agricultural development.
Land Use (2011/2012)
Above-
ground
Above-
ground
source
Below-
ground
Below-
ground
source
Total
Annual
Flux
Forestry plantation 90 * 127 *** 217
Forest (fragmented, riparian, high
density of land, high density flooded)
90
***
108
***
198
Pastures with trees 47 ** 134 *** 181 3.6
Oil palm 50 **** 110 *** 160
Secondary vegetation 90 * 55 ** 145
Mosaic of crops, pastures and natural
vegetation
32
**
111
**
143
Rubber plantation 20 *** 113 *** 133
Improved pastures 4 **** 116 *** 120 3.6
Native savanna 3 **** 72 *** 75 1.92
Rice 3 *** 70 *** 73 1
Other annual crops 3 *** 70 † 73 1
Degraded pasture 4 †† 60 ††† 64 3.6
* From global estimate
** Average of component land uses
*** From field studies by CIAT and CORPOICA
**** secondary data measured in the Colombian Llanos (Etter, Castilla)
† assumed the same as rice
†† assumed the same as improved pastures
††† assumed as 50% of improved pastures
Source: Rodriguez et al., 2012; CORPOICA
The opportunity cost curve in figure 4 suggests several possibilities for low emissions
development in the high plains of eastern Colombia. Three key land-use transitions are
principal drivers of emissions in the region – forest to rice, forest to pastures and forest to
mosaic landscapes (the bars to the right of 0 on the x-axis). The opportunity costs of
converting forest to other land uses are relatively low, suggesting some scope for
programs that could avoid emissions by compensating landowners for forgoing rice
growing and cattle ranching activities. Land use transitions leading to carbon
accumulation have greater potential than those that avoid emissions. The land-use with
the greatest area in the high plains region – native savanna – also has the lowest carbon
stocks. Therefore conversions of native savanna lead to carbon accumulation (the bars to
the left of 0 on the x-axis). These transitions are also profitable, bringing benefits to land
owners of between $1 and $3 per ton of CO2 equivalent sequestered (the bars above 0
on the y-axis). Since landowners are already making profits by converting native savanna,
this may be a land-use that could be encouraged by government policies that might
provide credit or other programs encouraging adoption of high carbon stock land uses.
Figure 5. Net emissions scenarios for the high plains of Eastern Colombia, 2002 to 2042. BAU is our
business as usual projection of land-use change over the next decade. The 50% and 100% scenarios
assume that growth of tree plantations and improved pastures would increase by half as much or
double over the next decades.
The impact of future land use change on net emissions suggests that accumulation will
continue but will be less important as opportunities for land-use conversions that reduce
emissions decline (Figure 5). Carbon accumulation advances in the 1st years of the simulation
but declines later as emissions from agriculture increase and fewer opportunities for
converting native savanna to higher carbon stock land uses.
Figure 1. Land use in the high plains of Eastern Colombia, 2010/2011.