This document summarizes recent developments in climate services work by the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). It outlines the goals and impact pathways of climate services in CCAFS' Flagship 2 portfolio, which includes several core projects focused on prediction and early warning, rural climate services, insurance, and safety nets. It also discusses progress in external partnerships, funding, and mainstreaming climate services in ongoing activities in countries like Senegal, Colombia, Tanzania and Malawi. Finally, it addresses the response to an evaluation of CCAFS' climate services work, including disseminating publications, improving tools, embedding services in agricultural extension, and better integrating services.

1. Jim Hansen, Flagship Leader, Climate Risk Management
May 2015
Recent Developments
in CCAFS Work on
Climate Services

2. Overview
• Climate services in the new
Flagship 2 portfolio
• Progress in external
partnerships and funding
• Informing climate services
investment
• Mainstreaming climate services
in ongoing activities
• Response to evaluation of
Theme 2 climate services work

3. Vision
for
CCAFS
Flagship
2:
Livelihoods
of
farmers
across
Asia,
Africa
and
La3n
America
are
supported
by
effec3ve
climate
informa3on
services,
and
protected
by
3mely
and
well-­‐targeted
food
security
safety
nets.
Targets:
15institutions or consortia use CCAFS science to
develop or improve major demand-driven, equitable,
climate-informed services supporting rural
communities.
15million US$ increase in investment in climate
services for agriculture and food security, that is
informed by CCAFS science and engagement.
30million farmers,
12 million women,
with improved
capacity to adapt to
climate-related risk
by accessing climate
services and/or well-
targeted safety nets
that are informed by
CCAFS science.
+3
+2
2
2
Climate services in the Flagship 2 portfolio:
Goal and targets

4. Climate services in the Flagship 2 portfolio:
Impact pathways
• Climate-based methods and tools for
seasonal agricultural prediction and
early warning
• Knowledge and methods for equitable
climate information and advisory
services for smallholder communities
• Weather-related insurance products
and programs that benefit smallholder
communities
• Food security safety nets and policy
interventions for dealing with impacts of
climate-related shocks
• Engagement, synthesis, evidence to
guide investment in climate services
for agriculture and food security
• Regional and national meteorological
institutions better meet the demands of
climate service beneficiaries
• Agricultural extension and climate
information providers expand and
improve climate service provision
• Financial service providers improve
design, targeting and scaling of
insurance for smallholder farmers
• Food security response organizations
and safety net programs use improved
information to better manage shocks
• Regional and global development
organizations invest, with greater
impact, in climate services for
agriculture
Flagship 2 products: Target outcomes:

5. CASCAID:
Capacitating
African
Smallholders with
Climate Advisories
and Insurance
Development
(ICRISAT/ICRAF)
Early warning for
climate sensitive
diseases in
Vietnam and
Laos (ILRI)
Adaptive capacity
of women &
minorities thru
agro-climate
information in SE
Asia (CARE/
ICRAF)
Flood Index
Insurance for
marginalized
smallholder
communities
(IWMI)
Climate-informed,
ICT-based agro-
advisory service for
crops in South and
Southeast Asia
(IRRI)
Integrated
Agricultural and
Food Security
Forecasting for
East Africa
(CIMMYT)
AGROCLIMAS:
Tailored Agro-
Climate Services
for Latin America
(CIAT, Bioversity)
Index insurance
to enhance
adoption of
climate-adapted
germplasm
(CIMMYT)
Index insurance
complementing
other risk
management
strategies
(IFPRI)
Core Flagship 2 projects, 2015-2018

6. CASCAID:
Capacitating
African
Smallholders with
Climate Advisories
and Insurance
Development
(ICRISAT/ICRAF)
Early warning for
climate sensitive
diseases in
Vietnam and
Laos (ILRI)
Adaptive capacity
of women &
minorities thru
agro-climate
information in SE
Asia (CARE/
ICRAF)
Flood Index
Insurance for
marginalized
smallholder
communities
(IWMI)
Climate-informed,
ICT-based agro-
advisory service for
crops in South and
Southeast Asia
(IRRI)
Integrated
Agricultural and
Food Security
Forecasting for
East Africa
(CIMMYT)
AGROCLIMAS:
Tailored Agro-
Climate Services
for Latin America
(CIAT, Bioversity)
Index insurance
to enhance
adoption of
climate-adapted
germplasm
(CIMMYT)
Index insurance
complementing
other risk
management
strategies
(IFPRI)
Core Flagship 2 projects, 2015-2018
þ Prediction & early warning
þ Rural climate services
þ Insurance
þ Safety nets
OUTCOME: >2M farmers use
seasonal climate information. 4
boundary institutions provide
climate advisory services. 2
NHMS & AGRHYMET improve
crop monitoring and EW. 4 NHMS
& AGRHYMET provide improved
high-resolution forecasts. >1 PPP
provides index insurance.

7. CASCAID:
Capacitating
African
Smallholders with
Climate Advisories
and Insurance
Development
(ICRISAT/ICRAF)
Early warning for
climate sensitive
diseases in
Vietnam and
Laos (ILRI)
Adaptive capacity
of women &
minorities thru
agro-climate
information in SE
Asia (CARE/
ICRAF)
Flood Index
Insurance for
marginalized
smallholder
communities
(IWMI)
Climate-informed,
ICT-based agro-
advisory service for
crops in South and
Southeast Asia
(IRRI)
Integrated
Agricultural and
Food Security
Forecasting for
East Africa
(CIMMYT)
AGROCLIMAS:
Tailored Agro-
Climate Services
for Latin America
(CIAT, Bioversity)
Index insurance
to enhance
adoption of
climate-adapted
germplasm
(CIMMYT)
Index insurance
complementing
other risk
management
strategies
(IFPRI)
Core Flagship 2 projects, 2015-2018
þ Prediction & early warning
þ Rural climate services
þ Insurance
þ Safety nets
OUTCOME: PPP in 2 countries use
agro-climatic tools for policy and
programs. Farmer associations,
agricultural extension reach 60k
farmers with climate services. NMS
incorporate seasonal forecasts into
food security information system.
Sentinel sites used for food security
management. Increased control by
women, marginalized.

8. CASCAID:
Capacitating
African
Smallholders with
Climate Advisories
and Insurance
Development
(ICRISAT/ICRAF)
Early warning for
climate sensitive
diseases in
Vietnam and
Laos (ILRI)
Adaptive capacity
of women &
minorities thru
agro-climate
information in SE
Asia (CARE/
ICRAF)
Flood Index
Insurance for
marginalized
smallholder
communities
(IWMI)
Climate-informed,
ICT-based agro-
advisory service for
crops in South and
Southeast Asia
(IRRI)
Integrated
Agricultural and
Food Security
Forecasting for
East Africa
(CIMMYT)
AGROCLIMAS:
Tailored Agro-
Climate Services
for Latin America
(CIAT, Bioversity)
Index insurance
to enhance
adoption of
climate-adapted
germplasm
(CIMMYT)
Index insurance
complementing
other risk
management
strategies
(IFPRI)
Core Flagship 2 projects, 2015-2018
☐ Prediction & early warning
þ Rural climate services
☐ Insurance
☐ Safety nets
OUTCOME: 200k women and
ethnic minority farmers use
agro-climatic information to
manage risk. NMS & extension
services support farmers with
information. 80% project
farmers implement plans that
reduce crop failure.

9. CASCAID:
Capacitating
African
Smallholders with
Climate Advisories
and Insurance
Development
(ICRISAT/ICRAF)
Early warning for
climate sensitive
diseases in
Vietnam and
Laos (ILRI)
Adaptive capacity
of women &
minorities thru
agro-climate
information in SE
Asia (CARE/
ICRAF)
Flood Index
Insurance for
marginalized
smallholder
communities
(IWMI)
Climate-informed,
ICT-based agro-
advisory service for
crops in South and
Southeast Asia
(IRRI)
Integrated
Agricultural and
Food Security
Forecasting for
East Africa
(CIMMYT)
AGROCLIMAS:
Tailored Agro-
Climate Services
for Latin America
(CIAT, Bioversity)
Index insurance
to enhance
adoption of
climate-adapted
germplasm
(CIMMYT)
Index insurance
complementing
other risk
management
strategies
(IFPRI)
Core Flagship 2 projects, 2015-2018
☐ Prediction & early warning
þ Rural climate services
☐ Insurance
☐ Safety nets
OUTCOME: 500k farming
households use ICT-based
agro-advisory service to
improve productivity and
income.

10. CASCAID:
Capacitating
African
Smallholders with
Climate Advisories
and Insurance
Development
(ICRISAT/ICRAF)
Early warning for
climate sensitive
diseases in
Vietnam and
Laos (ILRI)
Adaptive capacity
of women &
minorities thru
agro-climate
information in SE
Asia (CARE/
ICRAF)
Flood Index
Insurance for
marginalized
smallholder
communities
(IWMI)
Climate-informed,
ICT-based agro-
advisory service for
crops in South and
Southeast Asia
(IRRI)
Integrated
Agricultural and
Food Security
Forecasting for
East Africa
(CIMMYT)
AGROCLIMAS:
Tailored Agro-
Climate Services
for Latin America
(CIAT, Bioversity)
Index insurance
to enhance
adoption of
climate-adapted
germplasm
(CIMMYT)
Index insurance
complementing
other risk
management
strategies
(IFPRI)
Core Flagship 2 projects, 2015-2018
þ Prediction & early warning
☐ Rural climate services
☐
Insurance
☐ Safety nets
OUTCOME: National &
regional institutions protect
lives & livelihoods from
climate shocks, by
producing and using
improved early warning to
improve food security
management in 3 countries.

11. CASCAID:
Capacitating
African
Smallholders with
Climate Advisories
and Insurance
Development
(ICRISAT/ICRAF)
Early warning for
climate sensitive
diseases in
Vietnam and
Laos (ILRI)
Adaptive capacity
of women &
minorities thru
agro-climate
information in SE
Asia (CARE/
ICRAF)
Flood Index
Insurance for
marginalized
smallholder
communities
(IWMI)
Climate-informed,
ICT-based agro-
advisory service for
crops in South and
Southeast Asia
(IRRI)
Integrated
Agricultural and
Food Security
Forecasting for
East Africa
(CIMMYT)
AGROCLIMAS:
Tailored Agro-
Climate Services
for Latin America
(CIAT, Bioversity)
Index insurance
to enhance
adoption of
climate-adapted
germplasm
(CIMMYT)
Index insurance
complementing
other risk
management
strategies
(IFPRI)
Core Flagship 2 projects, 2015-2018
þ Prediction & early warning
þ Rural climate services
☐ Insurance
☐ Safety nets
OUTCOME: Farmers use tools
to (a) avoid maize diseases, (b)
prevent pig diseases, (c) tap
rubber at the optimum time.
Animal health workers identify,
reduce risks of climate-
sensitive livestock disease.

12. Progress in external partnerships and funding:
Strengthening African regional climate
service capacity
• USAID Africa Bureau, $1-1.3M, 2 years
• Support climate services in Africa through regional
organizations and programs
• Tentative areas of work:
§ Guidance and evidence to inform investment (ACPC)
§ Regional capacity to produce agriculturally-relevant climate
services (AGRHYMET, IRI)
§ Regional capacity to support climate communications
(AGRHYMET, tentatively ACPC, U. Reading, others)

13. Progress in external partnerships and funding:
Empowering Farmers to Manage Risk and
Adapt to a Changing Climate in Rwanda
• Funding anticipated from
USAID-Rwanda, 2015-2019
• Objectives
§ Develop climate services, communication
mechanisms to enable Rwanda farmers to
manage climate risk
§ Support government agricultural and food
security planning with climate services
§ Sustainable national climate services
governance

14. Informing climate services investment
• Myanmar
• Agriculture Global Practice and GFDRR
• Internship
• Participation in ASAP inception meetings
• CIASA: Climate Information and Services for Africa

15. Mainstreaming climate services in ongoing work:
Senegal and Colombia
• Senegal
§ WA RPL (Robert), ICRISAT, ANACIM
§ Reaching ~2M farmers through radio,
NGOs, agricultural extension
§ Seasonal forecasts mandated in the
country’s 2014 Agricultural Plan

16. Mainstreaming climate services in ongoing work:
Senegal and Colombia
• Senegal
§ WA RPL (Robert), ICRISAT, ANACIM
§ Reaching ~2M farmers through radio,
NGOs, agricultural extension
§ Seasonal forecasts mandated in the
country’s 2014 Agricultural Plan
• Colombia
§ LAM RPL (Ana-Maria), MoA (funder),
CIAT, producer associations
§ Piloting local agroclimate technical
groups in 2 municipalities
§ 170 rice farmers (1800 ha) benefited
from response to seasonal forecast

17. Mainstreaming climate services in ongoing work:
GFCS Adaptation Program in Africa
• First national GFCS implementation, Tanzania & Malawi
• Funded at ~$10M (2014-2016)
• Agriculture & food security, health, DRR
• CCAFS & WFP co-lead agriculture & food security:
§ National framework consultation workshop process
§ Needs assessment, M&E
§ Training agricultural extension
§ Preparation for radio & ICT delivery
• Challenges:
§ Partner challenges
§ Personnel delay

18. Response to CCAFS climate services evaluation:
Overview of process
• Commissioned Osvaldo Néstor Feinstein
• Objectives:
§ Progress towards Milestones (primarily 2.3.2)
§ Effectiveness of partnership strategy
§ Appropriateness of scope relative to objectives
§ How well results are captured and documented
§ Areas for improvement
• Qualitative, based on review of available documents,
email questionnaire, and a set of interviews
• Limitations

19. Response to CCAFS climate services evaluation:
Relatively straightforward responses
1. More proactive dissemination of
climate services publications
2. Improve the use of the IRI’s Climate
Predictability Tool (CPT)
3. Embed climate services in
agricultural extension, into national
agencies (meteorological and
agriculture) that can provide
sustainability
4. Foster integration of climate
services with other information and
services, considering CSVs as a
promising approach
1. Newsletter, annual Flagship 2
meeting for CGIAR. More nuanced
outreach for external partners
2. Brokered discussion between the 1
respondent who raised this, and the
key person at IRI. (IRI developed,
maintains, supports use of CPT.)
3. Agree fully. Past success has been
mixed, sometimes constrained by
resources. Feasibility improving with
new / anticipated bilateral projects.
4. Part of strategy at CSV sites, but
weak in some activities. Scaling up
requires also addressing integration
at higher (national) levels.
Recommendation Response

20. Response to CCAFS climate services evaluation:
Significant gaps, new priorities
5. Cost-benefit analysis to
provide evidence to support
partners and governments to
invest in scaling up climate
services
6. Strategy to address the scaling-
up challenge: How to provide
services at scale that are
tailored to context-specific
needs?
5. An important gap in CCAFS
work and expertise. Addressing
through planned hire, to be
hosted at ACPC. Outreach to
other recognized experts.
6. One of the most important
challenges at this stage of
development. Targeting as a
priority within core team for
research and writing. Will
present this challenge to
Flagship 2 PLs, collaborators.
Recommendation Response

21. Jim Hansen: jhansen@iri.columbia.edu
Thank you!