On ICRISAT 40 years anniversary ceremony at the Regional office for West and Central Africa in Bamako (Mali), Dr Robert ZOUGMORE made an acclaimed presentation that gave prospective scenarios and challenges for agriculture and food security in the coming 40 years and suggested ways and strategies for climate smart agriculture.

1. THE NEXT FORTY YEARS:
the challenge of climate change
Robert Zougmoré
Regional Program Leader
CCAFS West Africa

2. Outline
• Challenges due to climate change
• The CGIAR research program: CCAFS
• Climate Smart Agriculture: the
solution

3. Challenge 1:
Food security

4. Greater demand for food due
to population & income growth
In order to meet
global demands,
we will need
60-70%
food
by 2050.

5. The yield gap and its’ limitations
Biophysical limitations
Potential - Soil fertility
yield - Water
(Experimentation)
- Germplasm
-etc
Which inputs are lacking?
Yield gap
Socio economic and policy
limitations
- Knowledge
- Credit Availability
- Input/output Market access
Actual - Policy, e.t.c
yield
Why inputs are not used?

6. “Unchecked climate change will result in a
20% increase in malnourished children by
2050,” relative to the full mitigation scenario.
-Gerald Nelson, IFPRI/CCAFS

7. Challenge 2: Adaptation to CC

8. Signs of Hope:
Rehabilitation, Prevention

9. 440
400
now
360 For 650,000 years, CO2 has never
been above this line, …..until now
CO2 parts per million
320
280
240
200
160
400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0
Years before today
NASA

10. The concentration of
GHGs is rising
Long-term implications
for the climate and for
crop suitability

11. IPCC PROJECTIONS FOR AFRICA
• CO2 enrichment
• Temperature increase of 1.5 to 4 ⁰C in this century
• Fewer colder days and nights
• Frequent hot days and nights
• Arid areas will become drier and humid areas wetter
• Increase in droughts and floods
• Sea level rise
• High levels of desertification and soil salinization in
some countries

12. Crop suitability will fall in many areas
% change
-95 to -31
-30 to -11 50 crops, to 2050
-10 to -1
0
1 to 29
30 to 47
48 to 98
Andrew Jarvis, CIAT/CCAFS

13. Length of growing season is
likely to decline..
Length of growing
period (%)
>20% loss
To 2090, taking 18 5-20% loss
climate models No change
5-20% gain
>20% gain
Four degree world
Thornton et al. (2010) ILRI/CCAFS

14. • Greater frequency of extreme events
• More severe extreme events

15. Climate change will add
greatly to price increases…
% price increase 2010-2050
Maize Rice Wheat
Nelson et al., 2010 IFPRI/CCAFS

16. Challenge 3: Reducing
the agricultural footprint

17. IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
ON AGRICULTURE
CROPS
SEA LEVEL RISE
LIVESTOCK
IMPACTS
FISHERIES
PEST & DISEASES
NATURAL
BIODIVERSITY RESOURCES

18. CCAFS:
working in
partnership
Regional organizations
(e.g. CORAF, FARA, ASARECA)
Continental initiatives (e.g.
CAADP)
Meteorological, development,
capacity organizations
(e.g. AGRHYMET, WMO,START)
National research & extension
State sectoral institutions
NGOs, Private sector, FOs

19. The CGIAR Research Centers
Where is the research being done?
>> At our 15 CG centers and ~70 regional offices
Lead center - CIAT

20. CCAFS
objectives
1.Identify and develop pro-
poor adaptation and
mitigation practices,
technologies and policies
for agriculture and food
systems.
2.Support the inclusion of
agricultural issues in climate
change policies, and of
climate issues in agricultural
policies, at all levels.

21. Place-based field work
Indo-
Gangetic
Plains:
There is risk of heat
West stress, melting
Africa: East glaciers, and sea level
Extreme rainfall variability Africa: rise; the intensity and
impedes precipitation Climate change will likely probability of extreme
predictions, but the Sahel intensify surface and events will likely
will likely experience groundwater stress. increase.
shorter growing periods.
Regional Program Leader Regional Leader:
Regional Program Leader: : Pramod Aggarwal
Robert Zougmoré James Kinyangi

22. A “new” climate
smart agriculture
is needed

23. To make
climate-
smart 1.Tools to make
agriculture investment choices
2.Incentives to improve
a reality: uptake
3.Research to reduce
GHG emissions and
increase productivity
under climate change

24. Creative thinking & wild bets Forcing by target environment
Intelligent CHANGE
Strategic choices choice of
population
Knowledg s TPE
Ideotype analysis
e&
Intelligent
concept Future
intuition systems
phenotypin
Methodology g designs
Gene/allel Function,
Modeling
ediscovery regulation,
Search Biparental phénotype
CCAFS (CRP7)
Diversity Pops
Panels Marker
Marker validation,
activity 1.2: developmt Integration
. ,
Breeding strategies GxExM
& ideotypes for
Molecula Con-
r ventional
2030 horizon
Application breeding breeding

25. Farmers efforts need to be supported by
policies, incentives and knowledge

26. VISION
• Agriculture becomes the
centre-piece of UNFCCC COP
• Empower farmers and
institutions through regional
knowledge networks (“From
satellite to cell phone”)

27. 1. Climate change has arrived
Thank you
2. We need planned,
accelerated and
transformative adaptation
3. There are some emerging
opportunities
4. A “new” climate-smart
agriculture is needed
5. A major push is needed on
climate risk management
6.Farmers efforts need to be
supported by policies,
incentives and knowledge