1. You’re tweeting? Use our hashtag:
#GCHARTRENDS

2. RON MIKESH

11. Orange and
Chatham Market
Summary 2012
Stacey P. Anfindsen
TARR Reports
timely, credible, market specific
www.tarreport.com
Stacey@staceypeter.com

12. 2011 Migration

14. Annual Closed Sales-All of TMLS
36409
34718
34215
40000
29758
35000
24924
23992
23855
30000
22138
20674
19894
19688
19504
19396
19151
18676
25000
16465
13594
20000
12541
15000
10000
5000
0
"1996" "1998" "2000" "2002" "2004" "2006" "2008" "2010" “2012”
"1995" "1997" "1999" "2001" "2003" "2005" "2007" "2009" "2011"

15. Orange County
Monthly Showings
4500
4000 3851 3833
3500 3184
3000 2617 2486
2500 2285
2118
1906 1859 1976
2000
1521 1389
1500 1259
1000
500
0
12-Jan 12-Mar 12-May 12-Jul 12-Sep 12-Nov
11-Dec 12-Feb 12-Apr 12-Jun 12-Aug 12-Oct 12-Dec

16. Orange County
Inventory at Quarter End
900
800
700 617
600
507
500
400
300
200
110
100
0
End of Quarter Inventory New Home ReSale
"2006" "2007" "2008" "2009" "2010" "2011" "2012"

17. Orange County
Percent of Inventory w/Price Drop
60%
50% 48%
46%
40% 40%
40% 38%
30%
30%
24%
20%
10%
0%
"2006" "2007" "2008" "2009" "2010" "2011" "2012"

18. Orange County
Monthly Pending Sales
120 113
106
102
100 91
79
80
64 65
60 55
49 51
45 45
41
40
20
0
12-Jan 12-Mar 12-May 12-Jul 12-Sep 12-Nov
11-Dec 12-Feb 12-Apr 12-Jun 12-Aug 12-Oct 12-Dec

19. Orange County
Fourth Quarter Pending Sales
350
293
300
256
245
250 227
205 199
200 173
150
100
50
0
"2006" "2007" "2008" "2009" "2010" "2011" "2012"

20. Orange County
Monthly Closed Sales
140 129
119
120 112
100 89
77
80
65
60
60 53 55
46 48
36 40
40
20
0
12-Jan 12-Mar 12-May 12-Jul 12-Sep 12-Nov
11-Dec 12-Feb 12-Apr 12-Jun 12-Aug 12-Oct 12-Dec

21. Orange County
Annual Closed Sales
2000
1765 1754
1800
1600
1400 1275 1277
1200 1146 1142 1128
1000
800
600
400
200
0
"2006" "2007" "2008" "2009" "2010" "2011" "2012"

22. Chapel Hill/Carrboro HS District
Annual Closed Sales
1400
1177 1142
1200
1000
847 838
752 775 745
800
600
400
200
0
"2006" "2007" "2008" "2009" "2010" "2011" "2012"

23. Chapel Hill/Carrboro HS District
Fourth Quarter Closing Price Metrics
$450,000
$400,000 $365,000
$350,000 $315,000
$300,000
$250,000
$200,000
$150,000
$100,000
$50,000
$0
Average Sales Price Median Sales Price
"2006" "2007" "2008" "2009" "2010" "2011" "2012"

24. Chapel Hill/Carrboro HS District
Fourth Quarter Median Sales Price/SF
$170
$165 $164
$160
$160 $158
$157
$155 $154
$150 $149
$146
$145
$140
$135
"2006" "2007" "2008" "2009" "2010" "2011" "2012"

25. Chapel Hill/Carrboro HS District
Months of Housing Supply
12 11
10
10 9
8
6 6
6 5 5
4 4
4 3 3 3
2
0
150-199.9 300-399.9 500-599.9 800-999.9 Condo Area Total
0-149.9 200-299.9 400-499.9 600-799.9 1ml+ Townhouse

26. Orange County
Sales to Original List Price Ratios
100% 98%
97% 97% 97% 96%
95%
95%
91%
90% 89%
87% 87%
86%
85% 84%
80%
75%
"2007" "2008" "2009" "2010" “2011” "2012"
FLP<OLP FLP=OLP

27. Orange County
Average Days on Market-LADOM
300
248
250
205
200
158
150 136 131 135
100 72 80
66 64
48 50
50
0
"2007" "2008" "2009" "2010" “2011” "2012"
FLP<OLP FLP=OLP

28. Chatham County
Inventory at Quarter End
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
End of Quarter Inventory New Home ReSale
"2006" "2007" "2008" "2009" "2010" “2011” “2012”

29. Chatham County
Fourth Quarter Pending Sales
200
178
180 164
160
136
140 125 121 121
120
99
100
80
60
40
20
0
"2006" "2007" "2008" "2009" "2010" “2011” “2012”

30. Chatham County
Annual Closed Sales
1000
878
900
800 711
700
586
600 521
500
400
292
300
190
200
100
0
All Housing New Home ReSale
"2006" "2007" "2008" "2009" "2010" “2011” “2012”

31. Chatham County
Months of Housing Supply
16
14
14 13
12
12
12
10 9 9
8
6
6
4
2
0
"2006" "2007" "2008" "2009" "2010" “2011” “2012”

32. Chatham County
Months of Housing Supply
70
63
60
50
40
30
20 18
20 14 15 15
10 9
10 6 7 7 5
0
150-199.9 300-399.9 500-599.9 800-999.9 Condo Area Total
0-149.9 200-299.9 400-499.9 600-799.9 1ml+ Townhouse

33. FHFA House Price Index
Durham-Chapel Hill MSA
8
6
4
2
0
"2000" "2001" "2002" "2003" "2004" "2005" "2006" "2007" "2008" "2009" "2010" "2011" “2012”
-2
-4

34. The Ugly
• 7 of 11 price brackets in Chatham have an
oversupply of housing
• 63 month supply of 1ml+ housing in Chatham-down
from 165 a year ago
• Detached housing at 600k+ in Hillsborough- 30
month+ supply
• 5 consecutive fourth quarter declines in the median
sales price per square foot in CH-C’boro

35. The Bad
• Orange average days on market increased to 142
versus 127 for 2011 closings
• The average days on market for closings in CH-
C’boro increased to 150 from 135
• Both the average and median sales price for annual
closings decreased in CH-C’boro

36. The Good
• Orange unemployment rate lowest since
4/09, employed workforce in 11/12 was the 3rd
highest ever recorded.
• The number of price dropping sellers decreased 19%
in Chatham and 25% in Orange
• Chatham annual closings up 21%, Orange annual
closings up 13%
• 4th quarter median sales price and median ppf up in
Chatham

37. The Future
• Drop in months of housing supply should stabilize
house prices in some sections and could produce
house price increases in other sections.
• Average year built of 2012 closed sales in CH-C’boro
was 1986, average in Cary was 1998, average in
South Durham was 1995……How will the older
housing stock compete with alternatives in other
parts of the Triangle?

39. MARKET UPDATE - ORANGE,
DURHAM AND CHATHAM
COUNT Y AREAS
JA N UA RY 2 013
PAMELA DAVIS, DAVIS APPRAISAL SERVICES

40. ANNUAL RATES OF APPRECIATION - A LOOK IN 2007

41. NATIONAL STATISTICS (FROM ZILLOW)
SHOWS AVERAGE NATIONWIDE DECLINE OF 24% FROM MAY ’07 TO OCT ‘11

42. WHAT’S HAPPENED TO REAL ESTATE
VALUES IN OUR AREA SINCE THE PEAK OF
THE MARKET IN 2007/2008 ?
Most have declined in value
Most condominiums and townhouses were hit harder than single family detached homes
Land values in Chapel Hill area do not seem to have changed much (less
than 10%) but there are fewer sales and longer marketing time
Chatham County has an oversupply of land/lots and the prices have
dropped quite a bit.

43. HANDOUT
Have as much fun as you can until someone
makes you stop

44. MY APPROACH – DATA ANALYSIS
.

45. ORANGE COUNTY – CHAPEL HILL
NEIGHBORHOODS (DETACHED SINGLE –
FAMILY)
Sales/Year % Change in
Neighborhood Sales in 2012
07/08 Value
Northwoods 9.3 9 -6%
Webbwood 2.7 3 -8.6%
Chesley 3.3 3 -9%
Southern Village 25.3 31 -9.7%
Ironwoods 8.6 6 -10%
Stoneridge 5.3 9 -10%
Colony Woods 15.3 15 -12.6%
Meadowmont 28 14 -15.8%
Lake Hogan Farms 26 16 -18%
Westwood 4 5 -17.5%

46. DURHAM COUNTY NEIGHBORHOODS
(DETACHED SINGLE –FAMILY)
Sales/Year % Change in
Neighborhood Sales in 2012
07/08 Value
Woodcroft 84 55 -7.6%
Parkwood 42.7 37 -8.4%
Grove Park 56 49 -13%
Southpoint Manor 15.3 9 -12.6%

47. CHATHAM COUNTY NEIGHBORHOODS
(DETACHED SINGLE –FAMILY)
Sales/Year % Change in
Neighborhood Sales in 2012
07/08 Value
Polks Landing 8.6 6 -9.4%
Chapel Ridge 15.3 10 -8.3%
The Preserve 13.8 18 -13.4%
Fearrington 16.6 29 -9%
Governor’s Club 46 38 -18%

48. CONDOMINIUMS AND TOWNHOMES
Sales/Year Sales in % Change in
Neighborhood
07/08 2012 Value
CHAPEL HILL AREA
Summerfield Crossing 6.6 8 -12%
Kirkwood 3 10.6 -14.5%
Canterbury 7.3 10 -17.5%
Southern Village 15.3 15 -18.3%
Village Green 4 7 -25%
Meadowmont 11.3 11 -30%
DURHAM AREA
Woodcroft 72.6 42 -9.5%
Dunbarton 7.3 7 -15.7%
Falconbridge 13.3 8 -11.7%
CHATHAM COUNTY
Fearrington 10 13 -10%

49. WHERE WILL VALUES GO FROM
THIS POINT?
Stabilize? Increase? Decline further?

50. MARKET ADJUSTMENTS
Sq.Ft adjustment $40- $90/ SF Depreciation
Decks $1,500 - $4,000
Garage (1) $4,000 - $8,000 Suggest .5 – 1.5% per year (on cost approach)
Garage (2) $8,000 - $15,000
Consider:
Garage (3) $15,000 - Adverse influences- Functional depreciation –
$22,000
Adjust for and consider the impact of functional
Basements (unfin) add $10- obsolescence such as a poor layout, extreme
decorating, excessive costs for upgrades or
$18/sf specialty items
Basement Finished $ 35- $70 Consider external depreciation ie: high traffic
road, power easements, steep driveways, poorly
Bath 2 versus 1 add $5,000 maintained nearby properties, close proximity to
major highways (backs up to I-40)
Bath additional over 2 add $2,500-
$4,000
Discount these properties about 3 -10% compared to
Bath (1/2) add $1,500 - other similar neighborhood properties without the
$2,000 negative influences

51. INFLUENCES ON LAND VALUE
Positive Negative
Nice view- lake, golf course Heavy traffic
Quiet roads Nearby large power lines
Well maintained nearby properties Airport flight paths
Nicely wooded (except large Close to landfill, sewage plant, etc.
acreage) (odors)
Very steep driveways or lots
Poorly maintained nearby
properties

52. THANK YOU

54. NC Real Estate
Commission
Vic Knight – Vice-Chair

55. NC Real Estate
Commission
(919) 875-3700
www.NCREC.gov

56. The MAJORITY of Complaints
1. Misrepresentation
2. Trust Accounts

57. The NEW Trend of Complaints
1. Scams ($$)
2. Money Laundering
($$)

58. NCREC Rule Changes
(Pending)
(To be Effective 4/1/2013)
NEW Rules
Amended Rules
Repeal of Rules

59. NEW Rules:
NCAC 58A.0116 – Handling of Funds ($$)
Belonging to others
NCAC 58A.0117 – Accounting of Funds
($$) Belonging to others
NCAC 58A.0118 – Trust Monies ($$)
Belonging to
“Property Owners
Assoc.”
NCAC 58A.2201 – Define – BPO & CMA
NCAC 58A.2202 – Requirements for

60. AMMENDED Rules:
NCAC 58A.0103 – Registration of Assumed
Name
NCAC 58A.0108 – Requires BPO Record
Keeping
NCAC 58A.0503 – Renewal Fees from $40 to
$45

61. REPEALED Rules:
NCAC 58A.0107 – Lengthy Trust Account
Rules

62. “Worth”, “Appraisal” or “Valuation”
“WAV”

63. Do NOT use :
“Valuation”, “Appraisal” or “Worth”
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
You can ONLY Use:
“Probable Selling Price” (or) “Probable Leasing Price”

64. Total Licensed Per Year by Exam
3500
avg=2358
std.dev.=355
3000
2860
2573
2500
2237
2154
1969
2000
1500
1335*
1000
500
0
2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 estimate
* as of December 2012

66. Have a GREAT Day
!
“Be Safe”

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host!