Poor communities living in developing nations will be most severely impacted by climate change. Their livelihoods depend on agriculture, forestry, and fishing, industries that will suffer losses from more frequent extreme weather like droughts and floods under climate change. As climate change increases the intensity of natural disasters, it will exacerbate poverty and food insecurity in vulnerable populations.

1. “Poor people already live on the front lines of poverty, environmental degradation and
natural disaster. Their livelihoods and food security depend directly on agriculture, forestry
and fisheries.
Their economies will suffer most from the heightened frequency of extreme droughts, floods
and storms associated with climate change.”
Kofi Annan
Friday, January 28, 2011 1

2. climate change
Regional impacts and humanitarian implications
Charles Ehrhart
CARE International
Poverty, Environment and Climate Change Network Coordinator
Friday, January 28, 2011 2

3. key regional impacts
Increasing temperatures and a
reduction in the difference between
day and night time temperatures
Changes in the amount of rainfall -
wet places will get wetter while dry
places become drier. Overall,
annual mean rainfall in the East
Africa is expected to increase.
Changes in when the rain falls -
seasons are becoming less
predictable
An increase in the intensity and
frequency of extreme weather (esp.
heavy rainfall and the intensity,
duration and frequency of droughts)
Friday, January 28, 2011 3
When we hear references to “global warming,” people are only talking about the way in which human behavior is increasing our planet’s temperature. However,
this is triggering a wide range of climatic changes - e.g. shifting seasons (winters/rains arrive later in the year), changing rainfall levels, increasing intensity and/or
frequency of floods, droughts, hurricanes, etc. One way of understanding this connection is to draw from our own experience: Have you ever looked into a pot of
water that you are heating on the stove? At first, the water is still. As you add more heat/energy to the water, you begin to see swirling convection currents. The
same thing is happening in our atmosphere - as we add more heat/energy to the system, it becomes more dynamic, more turbulent... and more chaotic.
“Climate” typically refers to weather conditions averaged across 30 years (a period recommended by the World Meteorological Organization). An easy way
to understand the difference between “climate” and “weather” is to think: “climate” is what you expect to happen (this time of year is hot), “weather” is what
you actually get (today was mild).

4. changing intensity of hazards (focus on floods and droughts)
Scientists have documented an
increase in the frequency of
temperature extremes, an increase
in areas affected by drought,
increasingly frequent heavy
precipitation events, shifting wind
patterns and changing cyclone
tracks.
During the next 20-30 year period,
the intensity, frequency, duration
and extent of weather-related
hazards will increase in East and
Central Africa.
Friday, January 28, 2011 4

5. floods
During the next 20-30 year period, it is
unlikely that we will see significant
changes in where floods occur.
However, we are likely to see:
An intensification of the water
cycle and a polarisation of
rainfall patterns.
In general, wet places will get
wetter while dry places become
drier.
The frequency of heavy
precipitation events is also likely to
increase over most land areas in
East Africa.
These changes will result in more
flash floods and large-area floods.
Friday, January 28, 2011 5

6. This map shows humanitarian risk
hotspots for flooding in the East Africa
region based on the interaction of
extreme and significant flood hazards
with high overall human vulnerability.
Also shown are areas with significant or
extreme flood hazard but lower human
vulnerability and areas where climate
models predict an increase in
extreme precipitation, as an indicator of
possible future increases in flood risk.
Friday, January 28, 2011 6

7. drought
During the next 20-30 year period, it is
unlikely that we will see significant changes
in where droughts occur. However, we are
likely to see:
Widespread changes in annual and
seasonal levels of rainfall
Shifts in the timing of rainfall
Longer dry periods in many parts of
the world
An increase in the number, intensity
and duration of droughts
An expansion of areas currently
affected by drought
Friday, January 28, 2011 7

8. This map shows ‘drought risk
hotspots’ based on the interaction
of extreme and significant drought
hazards with high overall
human vulnerability. Also shown are
areas with significant or
extreme drought hazard but lower
human vulnerability and
areas where climate models predict
an increase in dry periods,
as an indicator of possible future
increases in drought risk.
Friday, January 28, 2011 8

9. growing vulnerability
“Vulnerability” refers to the likelihood
that individuals, communities or
societies will be harmed by a hazard.
It is determined by a combination of
physical, social, economic, political
and environmental factors or
processes - including the character,
magnitude and rate of climate change,
as well as the variation people are
exposed to, their sensitivity and coping
capacity.
The day-to-day impacts of climate
change, such as higher temperatures
and erratic rainfall, are increasing
many people’s vulnerability to hazards.
Friday, January 28, 2011 9

10. food & water
Climatic changes will
contribute to water stress,
land degradation, lower crop
yields and increased risk of
wild fire. 50% decline in
agricultural productivity by
2020 (rainfed, lowland
agriculture)
The consequences, including
food and water shortages,
could be severe.
As a result of climate change,
between 75 to 250 million
people in Africa will not have
enough water to meet their
basic needs by 2020.
Friday, January 28, 2011 10

11. population & displacement
Populations affected by intensifying
hazards may come under substantial
pressure to migrate.
Prolonged droughts exert the greatest
pressure on households to move –
particularly from rural to urban areas.
In the Horn of Africa alone there are
more than 20 million pastoralists
currently living a lifestyle that is
centred on the search for increasingly
scarce pasture and water.
Friday, January 28, 2011 11

12. conflict hotspots
The risk that weather-related
conditions will trigger human-
induced disasters is especially
acute in drought prone parts of
the world.
Climate change raises the risk
of conflict in parts of central and
east Africa.
Friday, January 28, 2011 12

13. women and climate change
• Climate change affects women’s economic
insecurity more than men’s.
• Gender-based roles and restrictions create
obstacle to women coping with and
recovering from disasters.
• Girl children are the first ones to be pulled
out of school when livelihoods become
stressed
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14. key conclusions
We can make reasonably certain projections about the nature of floods and droughts
during the next 20 to 30 years.
As a useful rule of thumb, areas already affected by weather-related hazards will see an
increase in their frequency and/or intensity. There will also be an expansion of areas
already affected by drought and floods.
Even though weather-related hazards will get worse during the next 20 to 30 years,
people’s declining capacity to cope with hazard events may be a greater problem.
We should prepare for more quick- and slow-onset disasters as a result of climatic
changes. The need for humanitarian assistance will be particularly acute in areas
already identified as being at higher risk.
Climate change provides an imperative to increase investment in, as well as improve
quality and accountability vis-à-vis, disaster preparedness and response.
Natural resource based livelihoods in already marginal ecosystems throughout the Horn
of Africa may become non-viable by 2025.
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