AEitzinger Oxfam GB Bogotá startmeeting

Impacto cambio climático: La seguridad alimentaria para el área metropolitana Bogotá Bogotá – 02 August 2010 Anton Eitzinger, Audberto Quiroga WWW.ciat.cgiar.org Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor

Contenido ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

CIAT – International Center for Tropical Agriculture ,[object Object],[object Object],DAPA: Decision and Policy Analysis Que hacemos? Spatial Analysis, climate change, Impact analysis models, … Quien somos?

Decision and Policy Analysis (DAPA) Our vision ,[object Object],[object Object],Better public and private policies

Models, Scenarios, Emissions and more confusing stuff

Climate change Mitigation and Adaptation work at CIAT ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Agriculture: climate change information demand

Climate change Mitigation and Adaptation work at CIAT Climate change is a fact

Climate change Mitigation and Adaptation work at CIAT Emission Scenarios

Climate change Mitigation and Adaptation work at CIAT ,[object Object],Message 1

Climate change Mitigation and Adaptation work at CIAT CCCMA-CGCM3.1 CSIRO-MK3.0 IPSL-CM4 MPI-ECHAM5 NCAR-CCSM3.0 UKMO-HADCM3 UKMO-HADGEM1 2050 A1B UNCERTAINTY

Climate change Mitigation and Adaptation work at CIAT ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Message 2

Climate change Mitigation and Adaptation work at CIAT ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Global Climate Models (GCMs)

Climate change Mitigation and Adaptation work at CIAT 1. Work at CIAT: Downscaling of GCMs

Climate change Mitigation and Adaptation work at CIAT Extract average data of various GCMs with high resolution (Example Nicaragua) 2020 2050 Average temperature change + 1,1 °C + 2,4 °C Change in precipitation - 90 mm - 120 mm

[object Object],[object Object],Climate change Mitigation and Adaptation work at CIAT MaxEnt - Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions EcoCrop Model 2. Work at CIAT: Impacts on crop suitability

… using this bioclimatic variables for modeling ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],EcoCrop MaxEnt, CaNasta, Aguacrop, ... … calculated from: Temperature & precipitation Climate change Mitigation and Adaptation work at CIAT

Climate change Mitigation and Adaptation work at CIAT ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],3. Work at CIAT: Impact on livelihoods

Climate change Mitigation and Adaptation work at CIAT Vulnerabilidad Es el grado por el cual un sistema es susceptible o incapaz de enfrentarse a efectos adversos del cambio climático (IPCC 2001) Exposición Grado en que un sistema está expuesto a variaciones climáticas importantes (IPCC 2001) Sensibilidad Es el grado por el que está afectado un sistema, en sentido perjudicial o beneficioso, por estímulos relacionados con el clima (IPCC 2001) Capacidad de adaptación Es la habilidad de un sistema de ajustarse al cambio climático (IPCC 2001) Vulnerability

Climate change Mitigation and Adaptation work at CIAT Econometric models 4. Work at CIAT: econometric modeling

Climate change Mitigation and Adaptation work at CIAT ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Share. Compare. Chat. 5. Work at CIAT: focal workshops and surveys

Climate change Mitigation and Adaptation work at CIAT ,[object Object],Message 3

Seguridad alimentaria para Bogotá Current Project Oxfam GB / CIAT Duration: 06/2010 – 05/2011 Frozen vegetables Guatemala – Hotelería Jamaica – Seguridad alimentaria Bogotá “ Adaptation by agricultural communities to climate change through participatory & supply chain inclusive management”

[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Objetivos

Preguntas de la investigación ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Metodología – 11 pasos

[object Object],[object Object],… doing econometric modeling Change of crop suitability Finished including crop suitability into the model, what do you think? … listo, ya incluimos lo modelación de la fase lunar en los modelos de predicción … te parece?

[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Metodología – 11 pasos

Análisis preliminares Fuente: datos de producción http://sigotn.igac.gov.co/sigotn/

[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Talleres focales y encuesta

Talleres focales y encuesta: como?

Plan de trabajo para la colección de datos en el campo ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Project work plan - Time matrix

Gracias! Bogotá – 02 Agosto 2010 Anton Eitzinger, Audberto Quiroga [email_address] , [email_address] http://gisweb.ciat.cgiar.org/dapablogs/ Impacto cambio climático: La seguridad alimentaria para el área metropolitana Bogotá

AEitzinger Oxfam GB Bogotá startmeeting

Recommandé

Recommandé

Contenu connexe

Tendances

Tendances (20)

En vedette

En vedette (20)

Similaire à AEitzinger Oxfam GB Bogotá startmeeting

Similaire à AEitzinger Oxfam GB Bogotá startmeeting (20)

Plus de Decision and Policy Analysis Program

Plus de Decision and Policy Analysis Program (20)

AEitzinger Oxfam GB Bogotá startmeeting