Presentation made by Andy Jarvis from the Decision and Policy Analysis Program of the International Centre for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT). Delivered at Supagro in Montpellier, France in November 2009.
Testing tools and AI - ideas what to try with some tool examples
Andy Jarvis - Climate Change Models Can Guide Our Adaptation Strategies Supagro Nov 2009
1. Climate change and agriculture: How models can guide our adaptation strategies Andy Jarvis, Julian Ramirez, Edward Guevara, Peter Laderach and Emmanuel Zapata Program Leader, Decision and Policy Analysis, CIAT
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5. Sources of Agricultural Greenhouse Gases excluding land use change Mt CO2-eq Source: Cool farming: Climate impacts of agriculture and mitigation potential, Greenpeace, 07 January 2008
24. Winners and losers Number of crops with more than 5% loss Number of crops with more than 5% gain
25. Message 1 Global suitability for agriculture reduces moderately, but problems of food distribution are exacerbated
26. But what about land-use and biodiversity distribution in 2050?
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28. Results: protected areas per region Current extent of in situ conservation Global biodiversity currently well conserved
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34. Message 2 There will be greater pressure on land resources for multiple uses, as currently non-arable land becomes arable, and as we face massive biodiversity loss
35. Minimising impacts: Breeding for beans ( Phaseolus vulgaris L.) towards 2020
36. How are beans standing up currently? Parameters determined based on statistical analysis of current bean growing environments from the Africa and LAC Bean Atlases.
40. Technology options: breeding for drought and waterlogging tolerance Some 22.8% (3.8 million ha) would benefit from drought tolerance improvement to 2020s Drought tolerance Waterlogging tolerance
41. Technology options: breeding for heat and cold tolerance Cold tolerance Heat tolerance Some 42.7% (7.2 million ha) would benefit from heat tolerance improvement to 2020s
44. Impact of climate change on cassava suitable environments Global cassava suitability will increase 5.1% on average by 2050… but many areas of Latin America suffer negative impacts
45. …… .and for Latin America? Drought or flooding tolerance 30% of current cassava fields would benefit from enhanced drought or flooding tolerance 1.6m Ha still suffering climatic constraint 2.23m Ha of current production 2.1m Ha of new land would become suitable for cassava
46. …… .and for Latin America? Heat or cold tolerance 27% of current cassava fields would benefit from enhanced cold or heat tolerance 2.23m Ha of current production 2.2m Ha of new land would become suitable for cassava
What we need - mythic solution sequester carbon, reduce soil loss, stop slash and burn, reduce emissions - food security, stop pollution etc.
How are we going to estimate the effects of climate change on agriculture unless we’re going to wait for it to happen? Past changes are not really a good estimator. The little ice age starting in 1450 or thereabouts was a major event, completely changing the life styles and agriculture in Europe. It is piddling compared with what we are likely to see in the next 20 to 50 years. We must therefore rely on modeling situations that we have never before seen.