1. Global Impact of Climate Change on Coffee Production
C Bunn and O Ovalle with P Läderach, A Mosnier, M Obersteiner
The 24th International Conference on Coffee Science ASIC, Costa Rica, November 2012
Pic by Neil Palmer (CIAT)

2. About CIAT
International Center for Tropical Agriculture
• CIAT: One of 15 CGIAR Centers
• Mission: To reduce hunger and poverty,
and improve human health in the tropics
through research aimed at increasing the
eco-efficiency of agriculture.
• Coffee: About 35 researchers work in Leader DAPA: Dr. Andrew Jarvis
two fields, access to high value markets
and vulnerability to climate change.
…about 100 researchers
CIAT/DAPA - Lead Center of CCAFS

3. About CIAT

4. Intro Perceptions
"El clima se ha convertido en
impredecible, ahora llueve menos y
muy irregular, mi rendimiento ha
disminuido y tengo más problemas de
plagas y enfermedades."
Don Pedro, Nicaragua, Madriz, Enero, 2010
©Neil Palmer

5. Intro Perceptions
©Neil Palmer

6. Outline
• Global Impact of Climate Change
on Coffee Suitability
OVALLE-RIVERA, Oriana, LÄDERACH, Peter, BUNN,
Christian
• Integrated CC Impact Assessment
of the Coffee sector
BUNN, Christian, MOSNIER, Aline, OVALLE-RIVERA,
Oriana, LÄDERACH, Peter, OBERSTEINER, Michael
©Neil Palmer

7. Outline
Sequential Modelling approach
• Spatially Explicit Impacts
• Land Use Change

8. Outline
Global Impact of Climate Change
on Coffee Suitability
OVALLE-RIVERA, Oriana, LÄDERACH, Peter,
BUNN, Christian

9. Framework
The socio-economic impact of climate changeCoffee Suitability production
Global Impact of CC on on Mesoamerican coffee
Objective
Predict the global impact of climate change on coffee suitability.
Area of study
– GPS-referenced locations are distributed over 19 countries

10. Methodology Overall Approach change on Mesoamerican coffee production
The socio-economic impact of climate
Worldclim – Current Geo-referenced
Climate Coffee farms. Global Climate Model
Inputs (19 bioclimatic (GCM) Outputs –
variables) SRES_A2
2030 2050
Species Distribution Statistical
Process Modeling –MaxEnt Downscaling of
β r=o.o5 Back =20000 Climate Information
Future Climates
Coffee Suitability at Local scale
Output

11. Results socio-economic impactParameterizationMesoamerican coffee production
The MaxEnt - of climate change on
>10000 “background” may be
needed if the number of presence
points is large (Phillips & Dudı 2008)

12. Results socio-economic impact of climate change on Mesoamerican coffee production
The

13. Results socio-economic impact of climate change on Mesoamerican coffee production
The

14. Results socio-economic impact of climate change on Mesoamerican coffee production
The Global Coffee Suitability Map

15. Results socio-economic impact of climate change on Mesoamerican coffee production
The Global Coffee Suitability Map / Zone

16. Results socio-economic impact of climate change on Mesoamerican coffee production
The Global Coffee Suitability Map / Zone 1.
Central America and Mexico coffee farms 2030 2050
Annual average temperature change + 1,4 °C + 2,1°C
Annual change in precipitation - 50 mm - 70 mm

17. Results socio-economic impact of climate change on Mesoamerican coffee production
The Global Coffee Suitability Map / Zone 1

18. Results socio-economic impact Analysis of MaxEnt Mesoamerican multiple GCMs
The Uncertainty of climate change on output using coffee production

19. Results socio-economic impact of climate change on Mesoamerican coffee production
The Environmental factors which drive the suitability of coffee (Zone1)
High
Low
 Regression analysis of variables:
Higher temperature and Changes in Precipitation drive
change
Fore sign of impact depends on altitude

20. Summary
The socio-economic impact of climate change on Mesoamerican coffee production
Conclusions
 Impacts are site specific
Low altitudes lose most
Countries with available area in high altitudes gain
 Higher temperature and Changes in Precipitation patterns drive change
 Maxent modeling should be done on a high resolution
 For sub-regional impact assessments local models are recommended

21. Outline
Integrated CC Impact
Assessment of the Coffee sector
BUNN, Christian, MOSNIER, Aline,
OVALLE-RIVERA, Oriana, LÄDERACH,
Peter, OBERSTEINER, Michael

22. Outline
Sequential Modelling approach
• Spatially Explicit Impacts
• Land Use Change

23. Motivation
The suitability for coffee production is changing
How does Arabica production change relative to
Robusta?
Where are future production regions?
Is there pressure on deforestation?

24. Objectives
• Demonstrate SDM approach
for integrated impact
modeling
• Combine impacts on coffee
with impacts in other sectors
to model interactions
• Compare Scenarios, Policies
and economic implications

25. Globiom Partial Equilibrium Modeling
DEMAND Exogenous drivers
Population, GDP
Wood products Food Bioenergy
Process
PROCESS 28
Primary Crops regions
wood SUPPLY
products
HRU = Altitude & Slope & Soil
Aggregation in
larger units
Altitude class, Slope class,
AGRICULTURE FORESTRY
PX5
Soil Class
(max 200*200
km) PX5
Altitude class (m): 0 – 300, 300 – 600, 600 – 1200, 1200 – 2500 and > 2500;
Slope class (deg): 0 – 3, 3 – 6, 6 – 10, 10 – 15, 15 – 30, 30 – 50 and > 50;
SPATIALLY EXPLICIT INPUT DATA
Soil texture class: coarse, medium, fine, stony and peat;
Biophysical EPIC G4M RUMINANT Between 10*10
km and 50*50
models
km
Managemen Land
Climate Soil and topography t cover

26. Globiom Coffee Integration
• Model impacts on Robusta
– Similar to Arabica impact model
• Model Spatially explicit area data
– Downscaling of FAO data using USDA information
• Model Spatially explicit yield data
– Derive a function dependent on suitability

27. Robusta Global CC Impacts
Ovalle et al 2012

28. Downscaling

29. Downscaling

30. Downscaling
•

31. Yield Potential

32. Globiom Macro Scenario
• A2 – Scenario
Increasing
Population
Regional
Economic
development
• Three climate models
CNRM CM3
MRI CGCM 2.3.2
UKMO HadGem1
Baseline

33. Globiom Key Results

34. Globiom Key Results

35. Globiom Key Results

36. Next Steps Upcoming Projects
Upcoming Projects
• Evaluate Adaptation policies
• Include a process model of coffee
• Differentiate demand
• More data
• Data on CO2 stocks and Fertilizer use
• Regional Trade-off model of Adaptation and Mitigation
• Water constraint

37. Summary
Summary
Conclusion
• Species distribution Modeling can be used for integrated CC
Assessments with little prior knowledge
• Without market differentiation Robusta will be the dominant
crop
• Asia may be a climate change winner, Brazil a loser
• R&D in coffee will be the key to Adaptation

38. Global Impact of Climate Change on Coffee Production
C Bunn and O Ovalle with P Läderach, A Mosnier, M Obersteiner
The 24th International Conference on Coffee Science ASIC, Costa Rica, November 2012
¡Gracias!
Peter Läderach (CIAT)
p.laderach@cgiar.org
Oriana Ovalle (CIAT)
o.ovalle@cgiar.org
Christian Bunn (CIAT/HU Berlin)
Christian.Bunn@HU-Berlin.de
Pic by Neil Palmer (CIAT)