1. Climate change and bean production
Julian Ramirez / Andy Jarvis
(c) Neil Palmer (CIAT)

2. Outline
• What climate change?
• Sensitivity of beans?
• Modelling crop suitability impacts
• Breeding priorities
• Way forward: modelling crop processes
• Where are the traits?

3. What climate change?
+
=
+

4. Emissions from agriculture
Excluding land-use [Mt CO2-eq]
Source: Cool farming: Climate impacts of agriculture and mitigation potential, Greenpeace, 07 January 2008

5. Impacts on agriculture
• By 2100, novel climates could happen in 10-48% of the earth
(Williams et al. 2007)
• Climate change is predicted to decrease agricultural yields (many
authors), with major impacts in the DW (many authors)
Source: Lobell et al., 2008

6. Climate Predictions
• Global Circulation Models
… to produce
future predictions
based upon
historical
observations…

7. Climate Predictions
• Climate is very hard to model

8. Climate model skill
• Climate model skill (CMIP3)
1961-1990 Rainfall 1961-1990 Temperature
Source: Ramirez and Challinor, in p

9. Climate model skill

10. Sensitivity of beans
Courtesy: S. Beebe

11. Sensitivities
• Drought: less biomass (optimal 300-500 mm)
• Waterlogging: Root rotting
• High temperatures
Konsens et al. 1991

12. Sensitivities
• CO2 response
3,000 ppm
500 ppm
340 ppm
Jolliffe & Ehret (1985)

13. Sensitivities
• CO2 and HTS
– CO2: increases biomass
– HTS (temperature)
– HTS (timing)
– HTS (duration)
• Pests and diseases
– In dry areas
– In humid areas
Vara-Prasad et al. 2002

14. Flora Mer, Patricia Moreno, Carlos Navarro, Julián Ramírez

15. Modelling changes in crop
suitability
• EcoCrop: how does it work?
It evaluates on monthly basis if
there are adequate climatic
conditions within a growing season
…and calculates the climatic suitability of the
for temperature and precipitation…
resulting interaction between rainfall and
temperature…

16. Common Bean Current Suitability
Kiling temperature (°C) 0 Growing season (days) 90
Minimum absolute temperature (°C) 13.55 Minimum absolute rainfall (mm) 200.0
Minimum optimum temperature (°C) 17.45 Minimum optimum rainfall (mm) 362.5
Maximum optimum temperature (°C) 23.05 Maximum optimum rainfall (mm) 449.5
Maximum absolute temperature (°C) 25.63 Maximum absoluterainfall (mm) 710.0

17. Common Bean Future Suitability and Change
2030s SRES-A1B
2030s SRES-A1B

18. Flora Mer, Patricia Moreno, Carlos Navarro, Julián Ramírez

19. Lima Bean Current Suitability and Presence

20. Lima Bean Future Suitability and Change
2030s SRES-A1B
2030s SRES-A1B

21. Impacts
Lima bean Common bean

22. Breeding priorities (water)
Lima bean Common bean

23. Breeding priorities (temperature)
Lima bean Common bean

24. Way forward: modelling crop
processes
• Phenology
• Water balance • Nutrient balance?
• Pests and diseases?
• TDS + DS + HTS
• CO2 fertilisation

25. Designing ideotypes
• Evaluate the effects of these traits using crop
models
– A faster and efficient rooting system
– Higher transpiration efficiency
– Higher harvest index
– Tolerance to water/temperature stresses

26. Where to look for those (abiotic)
traits?
lunatus
vulgaris
vulgaris
dumosus

27. Where to look for those traits?
CONSERVED POTENTIAL
EX-SITU

28. But as we know, they’re not well
conserved
From 85 taxa, 35 are not in
any genebank, and 26 have
<10 accessions...
From ~260,000
accessions, only 4,453
Source: Ramirez-Villegas et al. (2010)
are wild

29. Summary
• More conservation? Not a surprise
• Heat and drought tolerance for both crops,
but heat more intensely for Lima beans,
whereas drought more intensely for dry beans
• Mechanistic modelling needed
• Perhaps some further experimentation to
characterise HTS?