Presentation made in the Inter-agency Donor meeting on livestock in Washington DC on April 17th 2012.

1. Livestock at the Crossroads: new Directions for Policy, Research and Development Cooperation
Livestock, climate change and resource use:
present and future
Andy Jarvis, Caitlin Peterson, Phil Thornton, Polly
Ericksen, Mario Herrero, Michael Peters
CCAFS Theme Leader

2. Livestock products: Developing countries are
hungry for more.
•Growth in animal product
consumption has increased
more than any other
commodity group.1
•Greatest increases in S and
SE Asia, Latin America.
-Overall meat
consumption in China
has quadrupled since
1980 to 119
lbs/person/yr. 2
•Economic and population
growth, rising per capita
Photo by: CGIAR incomes, urbanization

3. 2 Livestock consumption patterns
•Between 1961 and 2005 milk consumption in developing countries
doubled, meat consumption tripled, and egg consumption increased by
a factor of five. 1

4. 3 Livestock consumption patterns
Past and projected consumption of livestock products
•As incomes grow, expenditure
on livestock products increases
rapidly .3
-GDP growth in E Asia
from 1991-2001 was 7%
per year, compared to
2.3% in other developing
countries and 1.8% in
developed countries.
•Consumption is leveling off in
developed countries, but more
than doubled since 1980 in
developing countries (from 31
lbs. to 62 lbs. in 2002).
-Rapid growth led by
Source: FAO (2006a) and FAO (2006b).
China, India, & Brazil
projected to continue.

5. The livestock sector has a substantial GHG
“hoofprint.”
Livestock Gigatons CO2
Emissions Source equivalent
Land use and
2.5
land-use change
Feed production 0.4
Animal
1.9
production
Manure
2.2
management
Processing and
0.03
Photo by: CGIAR transport
Source: FAO
•Responsible for 50% of all land use change emissions, 80% of all agriculture
emissions.3

6. 2 Livestock and GHG
•10-18%3 of all global anthropogenic GHG
-Other estimates as high as 51%4,5
•Range arises from methodological differences
-Inventories vs. life cycle assessments
-Attribution of land use to livestock
-Omissions, misallocations
Range of GHG intensities for livestock commodities
200
180
•Highest variation occurs for
kg CO2 eq/kg animal protein
160 beef, due to variety of
140
120
production systems.
100
80 •Ruminants require more
60 fossil energy use, emit more
40
20 CH4 per animal.6
0
Pig Poultry Beef Milk Eggs
Source: de Vries and de Boer (2009)

7. Which system is more sustainable?

8. 3 Livestock and GHG
•30-45% of earth’s terrestrial surface is pasture
- 80% of all agricultural land
•1/3 arable land used for feed crop production
•70% of previously forested land in the Amazon = pasture
Source: Erb et al. (2007)

9. 4 Livestock and GHG
Contribution of extensive (pastoral) and intensive
(feed-supplemented, including feed-lot) livestock
systems to greenhouse gas emissions.
•Only 3% of total global GHG
emissions produced by ruminants in
Sub-Saharan Africa (which supports
166 million poor livestock keepers)9
•Most emissions come from
industrialized countries practicing
factory farming
•The least emissions come from
family farms in developing
countries…
IPCC default methane producing potential (BO)
values for developed and developing countries. -But emissions per animal are
higher (usually due to poor
diet)

10. African livelihoods continue to depend on
livestock.
Source: FAO 2011
•E Africa: 40-50% meat comes from pastoral
systems, but transitioning to mixed crop-livestock
•Concentrated in arid/semi-arid zones
•Use of animals for draft power has increased over
most of Africa: from 350,000 to 2 million oxen in the
past 50 yrs in W Africa alone Photo by: Neil Palmer

11. 2 Africa and livestock
•Demand for livestock products in Sub-Saharan Africa projected to double,
from 200 kcal/person/day in 2000 to 400 kcal/person/day in 2050.7
-Population growth a huge factor
•Estimated to contribute 30% to Africa’s agricultural GDP in 2003
•Africa is a growing net import region (US $2,258 million in 2003)
Net trade in livestock products in Africa
Source: FAO 2005

12. 3 Africa and livestock
Rwanda’s “One Cow per Poor Family” Program (Girinka) demonstrates power of
livestock to alleviate poverty.
•Family either receives donation of cow or bank loan to buy one.
•Calf is shared with other members of community
RESULTS:
•Reduced malnutrition
risk
•Income from sale of
milk and offspring
•Manure for croplands
•Community solidarity
Photo by: ILRI

13. Livestock systems face a number of climate
change related challenges.
•Disease and pest distributions
•Quantity, quality, and composition of
feed
•Increased cost of housing and feed
•Water availability and quality
•Decreased productivity due to heat
stress
•Impaired reproduction/increased
mortality
Livestock production system in areas
projected to undergo over 20 per cent
reduction in Length of Growing Period to
2050
Source: ILRI

14. 3 Climate change effects
•Greatest impacts will be felt in grazing systems in arid/semi-arid areas
•Changes in range-fed livestock numbers directly proportional to change in annual
precipitation8
-Several GCMs predict precipitation decrease of 10-20% in semi-arid zones of
Africa
Areas in East Africa where a) rain per rainy day may
increase by more than 10 per cent and b) rain per rainy
day may decrease by more than 10 per cent
Photo by: Neil Palmer
Source: Ericksen et al. 2011

15. Developing country productions systems that are
eco-efficient
B1 scenario shown though the pattern is similar for all SRES scenarios
Smith P et al. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 363:789-813 (2008) Source: ILRI

16. Potential for reduced CH4 and CO2 emissions from livestock
and pasture management in the tropics
Table: Mitigation options in rangeland-based humid-subhumid systems in
Central and South America
Option Kg CH4/t milk Kg CH4/t meat
Cerrado 78 1552
100% adoption† of 31 713
Brachiaria pasture
30% adoption† of 64 1300
Brachiaria pasture The adoption of improved Brachiaria pastures would reduce
the methane emissions by more than half compared to
production on the natural cerrado vegetation.
†“Adoption” refers to the proportion of total milk and meat production in 2030 that comes from
implementing the option analyzed.
Source: Philip K. Thornton and Mario Herrero (2010), Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences 107 (46):19667-19672

17. Agosto 15, 2008
Silvopastoral systems:
A mini-revolution in
Colombia and Central
America
Piedemonte llanero
13 meses
Octubre 22, 2008
Estado inicial: Julio 17, 2007
15 meses

18. MAC curve showing the potential CO2e capture
for the implementation of SSPi in different
regions of Colombia

20. It’s all about the livestock…..either improve it’s efficiency,
or get out of it!
Carbon capture (CO2eq) for agricultural sector (fruits,
livestock and rice) in Colombia

21. The hoofprint means there is plenty to do!
•Livestock IS a major contributor to climate change, and arguably has the
largest ecological footprint on the planet (certainly in terms of area).
•Trend is that things can only get worse – greater demand for livestock
products. Likely to have a larger and larger share of global greenhouse
emissions.
•Developing countries are where it’s at! Biggest potential for mitigation,
and plenty of opportunities out there for major system transformations
•There are still big knowledge gaps that research can and should fill,
starting with better estimates of emissions
•Good policies accompanied by the right technologies could transform
the hoofprint and put developed nations to shame

22. a.jarvis@cgiar.org

23. 1 The state of food and agriculture: Livestock in the balance. Rome: United Nations Food and
Agriculture Organization, 2009, 9.
2 FAOSTAT 2010, cited in: Skillful means: The challenges of China’s encounter with factory farming.
New York: Brighter Green, 2011, 1.
3 Steinfeld et al. (2006). Livestock’s long shadow: Environmental issues and options. Rome: United
Nations Food and Agriculture Organization.
4 Goodland, R., and Anhang, J. 2009. Livestock and climate change: What if the key actors in climate
change were pigs, chickens and cows? WorldWatch November/December 2009, p10-19,
WorldWatch Institute, Washington DC
5 Herrero, M. et al. 2011. Livestock and greenhouse gas emissions: The importance of getting the
numbers right. Animal Feed Science and Technology 166-167: 779-782.
6 de Vries, M., and de Boer, I.J.M., 2009. Comparing environmental impacts for livestock products: A
review of life cycle assessments. Livestock Science 128(1): 1-11.
7 Thornton, P. 2010. Livestock production: Recent trends, future prospects. Philosophical Transactions
of the Royal Society of Biology 365: 2853-2867.
8 Working group II: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability, Africa, 10.2.2.4. Livestock. Geneva:
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001.
9 Climate, livestock and poverty: Challenges at the interface. Nairobi: International Livestock Research
Institute, 2009.