2. An assessment of the electoral &
financial outlook for Malaysia.
What the numbers tell us and what
conclusions to draw from it.
2
3. 6 POINTS:
1. BN cannot lose,
2. They know they are in trouble.
3. Their solution: push Malaysia
into bankruptcy,
4. IMF come in to clean up the
mess. Blame IMF for problems
later,
5. New Rat Race System starts.
6. You don’t have to believe a
word that is said!
3
4. RATIONALE BEHIND
TINDAKMALAYSIA.COM
Questions:
1. Where are we?
2. How did we get here?
3. Where are we headed?
4. How can we make it better?
4
5. A group of caring Malaysians
carrying out community service
through voter education and
PACABA Training.
Tindak Malaysia supports the reason why the
Election Commission was formed - to ensure
elections in Malaysia are free and fair.
(Elections Act S 5 (1a)) EC has to enjoy public confidence. (Federal
Constitution Article 114)
6. Our training is based on the election laws
and is politically-neutral.
We are pro-Rakyat and accept any party
that is voted in freely and fairly.
We believe that “Power Corrupts, And
Absolute Power Corrupts Absolutely”.
We take the position that there must be
checks and balances and that no one
party should hold too much power.
7. • Mobile phone to silent mode,
• Introduction,
• Stickers,
• Outline of Programme and duration,
• Expected results.
7
8. Tindak Malaysia strategy:
• Understand the principles of
psychological warfare,
• How is it used against us?
• Develop self-defense measures.
Nations move in 50 to 60-year cycles!
When politicians hold power for too
long, they become arrogant, bullies
and corrupt! The ABC’s of politics.
8
9. Their goal is to amass fortunes through all means,
legal and illegal, live a life of luxury, and preserve their
dynasty in any way that they can (such as pampered
intelligence and military services, cadres of corrupt
cronies, discriminatory governance to divide the
citizenry, and costly foreign support).
The result is that these countries have been financially
plundered, with an inhospitable business climate, an
underdeveloped private sector and little economic and
social progress.
http://atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/ML22Ak02.html
Where is this place?
Middle –east!
9
13. BN PR
140 MPs (63.1%) 82 MPs (36.9%)
8 states 5 states
50.27 % of votes 46.75 % of votes
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysian_general_election,_2008
14. Putra Jaya (BN) Kapar (PKR)
Smallest Largest
6608 voters 112,224 voters
Voters ratio = 1:17
Even the 2nd smallest seat, Lawas, has
15,717, which is 2.4 times larger!
17. Redrawing of boundaries to give
Four evenly matched districts
three-district advantage to Party 2
All districts produce an even voting District A,B,C votes 90% for Party 2
ratio for each party District D votes 90% for Party 1
Party 1 Party 2
17
SOURCE: http://www.comprofessor.com/2010/10/gerrymandering-through-corporate.html
18. One Voter One Vote ?
Question: Do the
Chinese & Indians
decide for a
simple majority?
18
Courtesy of the famous retiree: Ng CN
19. Total voter population: 10,922,140
Total Parliament seats: 222
Simple majority: 112 seats
DESIGN: 1st 112 seats: 1.85 million.
2008, BN contested 139 seats to win
112 seats. 2.08 million votes required
(19%).
Do you agree that 2 million can decide
for 28 million?
19
20. The smallest 112 seats come from:
Sabah, incl Labuan: 26,
Sarawak: 25,
Johor: 13,
Perak: 12,
Pahang: 8,
(Peninsular Malaysia: 61)
For simple majority rule, rural Bumis decide. Only for
2/3 majority, the non-Bumis have a say!
(Show Sabah & Sarawak powerpoint)
Seats can be increased after Mar 2011 but
need 2/3 majority. BN can even create 200
Putrajayas! 21
21. Smallest 112 seats: Seat no. 1 - 28
13 =
Sarawak
Majority
Sabah &
Sarawak
12 =
Sabah
22
25. Point No. 1: BN cannot lose.
Is that the reason we have such blatant
corruption and inequality?
Is it a coincidence that the poorest
groups with the worst infrastructure,
education and health-care facilities,
are the king-makers?
Is it a coincidence that the natives are
driven off their land to join the urban
poor? 26
26. It‟s good to
belong to the
Ruling Class!
States with the highest incidence
of poverty: Sabah & Sarawak
27
27. Results of not paying attention:
Ruling Party enjoyed 2/3 majority for
more than 50 years since 1957.
Consequences: 700 Constitutional
amendments since 1957.
Compare with US, 234 years old: Only 27
Constitutional amendments.
Answer: You have to avoid a 2/3 majority
to prevent too much power in the hands
of the Ruling Party.
28
28. 21-06-1962, Constitutional Amendment:
Article 116: Safeguard to maintain voter
difference to less than 15% removed.
Clauses (3), (4) and (5): Clauses were
repealed by Act 14/1962, sub-section 22
(c)
Source: (page 197)
http://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---ed_protect/---protrav/---
ilo_aids/documents/legaldocument/wcms_125966.pdf
29
38. BONDS: Thompson Reuters Eikon
GLC’s: Annual Accounts
DOMESTIC DEBT: Treasury Report
CAUTION: There may be some double-counting due to
obscurity of some of the figures in the Treasury Report.
GLC & Domestic Debt Analysis: Credit to Lee Wee Tak
45
39. NATIONAL
13.01.2011
DEBT – USD 44B rolled
over last year!
Govt Bonds
USD 179.8 B
46
41. NATIONAL DEBT – GLC’s
USD Million
GLC: Govt-
linked cos USD 19.5
Billion
48
42. DOMESTIC DEBT
31st Dec
In 3 ½ years,
domestic debt has
gone up by 70%!
USD 136 B :
USD 125.9 Billion 57% Debt/GDP
49
43. TOTAL DEBT – USD 331.4 B
Countries
that
collapsed at
Debt/GDP:
Ireland, Dec
2010: 96%
Greece, May
2010: 134%
Malaysia
144% Jun 2011: 144%!
50
44. TOTAL DEBT – USD 331.4 B
WHERE IS THE MONEY COMING FROM?
51
45. CAN IT GET WORSE?
Debt/GDP: 139%, annual deficit: 4 – 5%
Operating expenditure eats up all revenue & pensions depend on current income.
How can the Govt afford giving out RM 500 per head? What‟s the source? 53
46. RM 200 vouchers for 1.3 million students:
RM 260 million,
One-off RM 100 aid each to 5.3 million
students: RM 530 million.
RM 500 for 3.4 million households: RM
1.8 billion,
Civil servants increment 7% - 13%,
Money given today will be taken back via
GST tomorrow – Anil Netto: Atimes
54
47. Bureaucracy as % of Population
How long can this go
16.00%
14.00%
on?
12.00% 1.4 M Civil Servants, Problem: Low
10.00% 3 M RELA = 4.4 M productivity, poor work
8.00% attitude, corrupt,
6.00% entitlement-mentality.
4.00%
Does a change of govt
2.00%
0.00%
solve these problems?
55
48. WHAT ARE THE PIIGS ?
P: Portugal
I: Ireland
I: Italy
G: Greece
S: Spain
56
49. WHAT HAPPENS WHEN PIIGS DEFAULT ?
• THEY GET SLAUGHTERED !
• Bond yields shoot sky-high
• Is that Malaysia’s fate ?
57
50. GREECE
• Bond-buyers have to take a hair-cut !
In late October 2011, euro-zone
governments called on Greece to secure
a 50% write-down on the debt held by
private creditors. Greece offered 25%
only.
Must charge very high interest to
compensate – more than 100%!
Source: Wallstreet Journal 58
51. BUT MALAYSIA IS DIFFERENT !
• We have oil palm!
• We have oil & gas!
• We have electronics & electricals!
• We have high savings rate – EPF!
59
52. In 2009, Robert Kuok was forced to sell
off his sugar monopoly to some
“businessmen”.
Don‟t mess with Robert !Kuok.
How has it hurt us?
• Robert Kuok invested in the world‟s
largest sugar mill in Australia. Our
international sugar price went up.
60
53. SUGAR PRICE
World price dropped but Why ?
domestic price went up by 40%!
International sugar
price goes down
61
54. Oil palm: Najib asked China to increase oil palm
import from Malaysia but no deal.
• Why?
• Robert Kuok‟s Arowana Cooking Oil controls
40% of China domestic oil palm refining
• Then Robert Kuok decided to invest
USD 10 B in Indonesia oil palm. That‟s our
lowest-cost competitor! Will it hurt us?
Blowback from grab of Robert
Kuok‟s sugar business in
Malaysia (click to see link) 62
55. BUT WE STILL HAVE
OIL & GAS.
• We become net importer by 2014,
2015!
• Govt demanding more and more
money from Petronas.
• Petronas tried to stop the outflow.
• So previous CEO forced out & replaced
with Najib nominee.
• Ex-CEO now working for Singapore.
63
56. WHAT ABOUT
ELECTRONICS &
ELECTRICALS?
• This depends on foreign countries.
• Europe is in serious trouble.
• So‟s the US.
• Even China is having a housing bubble
and if her exports are hit for her biggest
market (Europe), she will import less
from Malaysia.
• Outlook does not look good. 64
57. NOTHING CAN HAPPEN TO CHINA !
Property crashing - Chinese ghost town:
http://www.tindakmalaysia.com/showthread.php/1928-China-Crash-Coming-China-That-Urban-Empty-
Feeling?highlight=china+ghost+cities
65
58. The soft landing view foresees Chinese
central technocrats responding timely
with well-calibrated fiscal and monetary
policies that maintain GDP growth of
around 8%, the annual rate Beijing must
achieve to absorb new graduates into
the work force and keep unemployment
manageable.
66
59. The hard landing scenario predicts that an
uncontrolled implosion of the property
market will unleash waves of wealth
destruction, a credit crunch and
consumption collapse that no amount of
government intervention will be able to
meaningfully forestall.
Southeast Asia will inevitably be among the
worst hit by a soft or hard landing in China.
http://atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/ML
22Ae02.html
67
60. OUR GOOD OLD EPF
WILL SAVE US !
• Malaysia cannot borrow cheaply from
international market as we are in the
same situation as Greece.
• So they tap into EPF for cheap funding.
• By now 60% is gone!
• That‟s our retirement savings!
Don’t feel bad. Govts do this as a matter of routine when they
get into trouble.
http://malaysiatoday.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/EPF-in-
Trouble2.pdf 68
61. IMPLICATIONS: INTERNATIONAL BAILOUT
Greece outlook: Look at Greece‟s situation
• Expulsion from EU,
• New currency with massive devaluation,
• Job loss,
• Drop in wages,
• Sale of state assets,
• Cost-cutting – pensions, subsidies, civil
service, welfare aid, govt services,
69
62. LOCAL IMPLICATIONS
• Petronas, banks and insurance cos
forced to buy low interest Govt bonds,
• Equivalent loans from international
market will exceed 10% interest,
http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/civil-
servants-fear-losing-jobs-in-iwk-restructure/
Restructuring and down-sizing Govt,
slash pensions, subsidies, govt services.
70
63. DO THE BUSINESS PEOPLE KNOW?
GFI reports that
Malaysia lost USD 338
Billion (RM 1.08 trillion)
from year 2000 – 2009.
5th largest in the world!
RM 39,000/person!
Highest in the world per capita!
71
64. How much is RM 1.08 Trillion?
RM 100 notes
stacked all the way
from Singapore to
Phuket!
Equal 75% of US Govt‟s gold in Fort Knox!
For the smallest 112 seats,
each voter lost RM 73,000
72
65. Capital flight
RM 150 B in 2009,
24% of GDP !
Equal to RM 100 Where did this
notes stacked all money come from ?
the way from 3 x KL MRT
Singapore to
Phuket! RM 250,000/family !
Watch out for a
currency crash!
73
68. Monthly Salary (oz of gold)
0.48
0.476 oz
0.47
0.46
0.45
1970 Amah
0.44
0.43 0.426
2010
0.42
Graduate
0.41
An Amah in 1970 earned
0.4
more than a Graduate
0.39
1970 Amah 2010 Graduate
today?!!
69. DO OUR LEADERS KNOW ?
CASHING OUT !
PUSHING MALAYSIA TO
BANKRUPTCY !
70. FELDA:
Dr. Tan Kee Kwong, ex-Dep Min of Primary
Industries: In 2001, FELDA had RM 4.5B
cash. They should make RM 2 B per year.
By 2011 they should have RM 25B cash.
Instead, they owe EPF RM 6.5 B. Why ?
Never mind, they will find some suckers in the KLSE
to buy their shares during listing.
Lim Teck Ghee warning. 78
71. KL MRT 12 times cost of
Beijing – Shanghai High Speed Train.
Not economical – sure bankrupt.
79
73. • Sg Besi Airport
land, worth RM
5.2 B but sold for
only RM 1.6 B !
81
74. WHAT‟S THE PLAN?
• Regain 2/3 majority to shore up power,
• Put all the laws in place to control
dissent,
• Push country to bankruptcy.
• Bring IMF in to do the dirty work,
• Millions lose their jobs,
• Civil servants chopped by 2/3,
82
75. PREPARING FOR UNREST !
• Public Assembly Bill passed to prepare for
repression by the police
As law-abiding citizens, it is our duty to obey the law.
Let all Malaysians stay home for 1 week! 84
76. 1st JAN 2012: START OF POLICE STATE ?
UPSI 01.01.12: The president of undergraduate movement Bebas, Muhammad
Safwan Anang taken to Slim River hospital in critical condition 85
77. EVENTS OUTSIDE OUR CONTROL
• SOVEREIGN DEFAULT:
• Italy,
• Greece,
• Spain,
• France,
• UK,
• US,
• China
86
78. WHAT ARE THE DANGERS ?
• Banks or bank holidays,
• Capital control,
• Commercial property & housing,
• Borrowings and high-gearing for
businesses,
• Mortgages for speculative investments,
• Shares,
• Mutual funds,
• EPF.
• Police State 87
81. HYPER-
INFLATION
Zimbabwe, Nov
2007: USD 1 =
Zimbabwe Dollars
1 million.
1 year later, it was
ZDR 250 billion!
90
82. 12 FACTORS OF We End Up??
Where Will A FAILED STATE.
WE ARE HALF-WAY THERE
1. Uneven development along group lines,
2. Criminalization &/or delegitimisation of the State,
3. Progressive deterioration of public services,
4. Widespread violation of human rights,
5. Security apparatus as “state within a state”,
6. Rise of factionalised elites
7. Demographic pressures,
8. Massive amount of refugees,
9. Legacy of vengeance-seeking groups over past grievances,
10. Chronic & sustained human flight,
11. Sharp & severe economic decline,
12. Intervention of other states or external factors.
83. 30 STAGES OF COLLAPSE
Public Assembly Bill
IMF 92
84. IS THERE HOPE ?
1. When nearing bankruptcy...
• A country‟s best chance of survival is for
foreign investors to bring money in.
• Will they come in if its management is
corrupt?
2. Do you want to hold corrupt leaders to
account?
3. There are 198 non-violent methods –
http://www.aeinstein.org/organizations/org/
198_methods-1.pdf
93
85. 1ST UNDERSTAND THE SYSTEM
Study tindakmalaysia.com:
• History
• Religion
• Psychology
• Social
• Trends
• Finance & economics
• Politics
• Strategies of non-violent self-defense
For simplification: Use mental models! 94
90. SYSTEM DEPENDS ON CASH-FLOW
LOYALTY IS TO MONEY
SYSTEM BREAKS DOWN WHEN CASH-FLOW
STOPS
99
91. HOW DOES THAT HAPPEN ?
Leverage 100x
Are banks safe?
4 million foreigners
Are jobs safe?
http://www.imi.gov.my/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=524%3Ajumlah-statistik-pekerja-asing-sah-dan-pati-
yang-telah-didaftarkan-menerusi-program-6p-sehingga-18-ogos-2011&catid=1%3Aberita-terkini&lang=bm
100
92. POLITICS
SOCIAL
STARVE
THE ?
BEAST
X ?
ECONOMICS
101
94. WHAT WE NEED !
The US: A depression does a lot of good.
It wipes out bad investments and eliminates bad speculators.
It forces capital into more productive, more profitable uses.
It kills off zombie industries.
It retires worn-out industries and reduces costs so that new
industries can arise.
It‟s the „destruction‟ that Schumpeter‟s „creative destruction‟
needs.
Solution for US Debt:
http://www.tindakmalaysia.com/showthread.php/4259-NIANswers-
FAQ?p=11708#post11708
Same for Malaysia.
We cannot ignore the laws of economics for too long.
103
96. HOW DO I PROTECT MYSELF ?
• Bank savings: Convert to gold bullion,
• Pensions: Withdraw if possible,
• Stocks and mutual funds: Sell all,
• Insurance: Give it up,
• Taxes: Minimize exposure through
incorporation,
• Commercial property: Sell,
105
97. HOW DO I PROTECT MYSELF ?
• Housing: Sell. Keep only 1 to stay,
• Businesses: Minimize loans,
• Life-style: Cut down on expenditure,
• Financial: Reduce debt,
• Stock up on essentials & dried-food,
• Food-growing land –
move to the countryside!
• Barter trade
106
98. PREPARING FOR A HARSH FUTURE
• Don‟t accept whatever is said today.
• Do you own due diligence.
• Monitor future events carefully and
compare with what is said today to see
if it makes sense.
• Use the knowledge wisely to protect
yourselves, your family & your friends.
• Help one another.
• Our best protection is National Unity.
107
99. FURTHER READING
Banking & debt, simply-explained.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tGk5ioEXlIM&featur
e=player_embedded
Teh Chi Chang‟s analysis: The Budget & it‟s Shadow.
High Alert!
http://thedailybell.com/Public/Files/High%20Alert%20-
%203rd%20Edition(1).pdf
198 Ways To Bring Down A Dictatorship.
**** PACABA 0 Thread & Tindakmalaysia.com ****
108
100. Join Tindak Malaysia
To be free:
Understand psychological warfare,
Mental revolution needed to take action.
Join us. Learn self-defense techniques,
Click the top yellow banner at
tindakmalaysia.com, or email:
pywong.tindakmalaysia@gmail.com
Spread the word !
109