Economic Growth in Central Texas: Assessing the Promise and Challenges of Prosperity in our Region
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Economic Growth in Central Texas: Assessing the Promise and Challenges of Prosperity in our Region
- 1. Economic Growth in Central Texas: The Promise and Reality of Prosperity in our Region June 2014
- 2. 1. What is driving growth in Austin? 2. Where are people coming from? 3. How long is this likely to last? 4. Is everybody benefitting? 5. Discussion 2 Presentation Overview
- 3. What is driving growth? 3
- 4. 4 Rank Metro Area Population 2013 Pop Change 2000-13 Growth 2000-13 1 Houston 6,313,158 1,595,651 34% 2 Dallas 6,810,913 1,575,528 30% 3 Atlanta 5,522,942 1,229,467 29% 4 Phoenix 4,398,762 1,125,285 34% 5 Riverside 4,380,878 1,103,856 34% 6 Washington DC 5,949,859 1,086,471 22% 7 New York 19,949,502 969,492 5% 8 Miami 5,828,191 802,296 16% 9 Los Angeles 13,131,431 738,727 6% 10 Las Vegas 2,027,868 633,959 45% 11 Austin 1,883,051 618,101 49% Austin is 35th largest US metro but ranks 11th in population growth since 2000 Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates. Rank is among metro areas (MSA) with population of one million or more.
- 5. 5 Metro Area 2000-13 Rank Metro Area 2009-13 Rank Raleigh 51% 1 Austin 12% 1 Austin 49% 2 Raleigh 9% 2 Las Vegas 45% 3 Houston 8% 3 Orlando 37% 4 San Antonio 8% 4 Charlotte 35% 5 Denver 7% 5 Phoenix 34% 6 Dallas 7% 6 Houston 34% 7 Orlando 7% 7 Riverside 34% 8 Washington DC 7% 8 San Antonio 32% 9 Oklahoma City 7% 9 Dallas 30% 10 Charlotte 6% 10 Austin ranks #1 in population growth rate among large metros since recession Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates. Rank is among metro areas (MSA) with population of one million or more.
- 6. 6 26,506 62,371 45,446 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 Annual Population Change in Austin MSA, 2001-13 Austin is growing by average of 50,000 per year (roughly size of San Marcos) Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates.
- 7. 7 Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis. Growth rate adjusted for inflation ($2012). Rank among top 50 US metros by GDP in 2012. Austin ranks #3 in GDP growth among large metros since end of recession Rank Metro Area GDP 2012 (Billions) Real Growth 2009-12 1 Houston $449.4 17.8% 2 New Orleans $84.8 17.7% 3 Austin $98.7 14.5% 4 San Jose $173.9 12.9% 5 San Antonio $92.0 11.9% 6 Portland $147.0 11.3% 7 Dallas $420.3 11.3% 8 Nashville $94.8 10.0% 9 Detroit $208.4 9.6% 10 Louisville $62.8 8.6% Austin economy has grown by 46% since dot-com bust in 2001, second only to Houston among the top 50 US metropolitan areas.
- 8. 8 Austin ranks #1 in job growth among large metros since end of recession Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics. Rank is among top 50 metro areas by total non-farm employment in 2013. 7.9% 8.0% 8.1% 8.2% 8.2% 8.6% 10.1% 10.8% 11.3% 13.7% Denver San Francisco Columbus Raleigh San Antonio Salt Lake City Houston San Jose Nashville Austin Job Growth, 2009-13 (Top 10 large US metros)
- 9. 9 -15,000 -12,500 -10,000 -7,500 -5,000 -2,500 0 2,500 5,000 7,500 10,000 Annual Change in Tech Employment in Austin MSA Tech employment in Austin on pace in 2014 to top dot-com era peak Tech Job Growth 2009-13 Austin 23% US 6% Jobs Multiplier: 3.5 Avg Earnings: $120K Source: EMSI. Does not include self-employment. Definition of tech sector in Austin is from Austin Technology Council economic impact report. Data for 2014 is an estimate. ATC report: http://civicanalytics.com/portfolio-item/quantifying-the-economic-impact-of-austins-tech-sector/
- 10. Where are people coming from? 10
- 11. Source: Internal Revenue Service. Map by Forbes showing net migration of tax filers (# of exemptions) to Travis County in 2008 tax year. 2008
- 12. Source: Internal Revenue Service. Map by Forbes showing net migration of tax filers (# of exemptions) to Wayne County in 2008 tax year. 2008
- 13. Source: Internal Revenue Service. Map by Forbes showing net migration of tax filers (# of exemptions) to Orleans Parish in 2006 tax year. 2006
- 14. 14 Roughly 2/3 of population growth in Austin due to people moving here Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates. Rank is among all metro areas (MSA). Net migration includes domestic and international. Rank Metro Area Net Migration 2013 Share of Total Pop Growth 1 Houston 81,124 59% 2 Dallas 52,142 48% 3 Miami 42,484 65% 4 Washington DC 41,366 47% 5 Phoenix 40,451 57% 6 San Francisco 40,283 65% 7 Seattle 34,970 61% 8 Orlando 32,041 72% 9 Denver 31,404 62% 10 Austin 31,230 65% Year Net Movers Austin MSA Per Day 2013 86 2012 99 2011 97 83% of net migration to Austin from other places in US—Austin is #5 if international migration excluded.
- 15. 15 Households % Total From Texas 21,270 58% From Different State 15,022 41% California 2,250 6% From International 266 1% Total 36,558 100% Most people moving to Travis County come from other counties in Texas Source: IRS. Tax returns are used here as proxy for households. This data includes employed college students who report a change of residence to Travis County. 15% of households that moved to Travis County from another state in 2011 came from California. But Californians made up only 6 out of every 100 new households, compared to 58 from other counties in TX. Households Moving to Travis County, 2011
- 16. 16 Housing market effects established new “floor” for relocations from California 2,624 2,250 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 # of Households Moving from California to Travis County Source: IRS. Tax returns are used here as proxy for households. This data includes employed college students who report a change of residence to Travis County.
- 17. 17 Households moving to Austin MSA by top in-state & out-of-state metro Metro Area HHs 2011 Average HH Inc Houston 4,178 $54,564 Dallas 4,010 $47,300 San Antonio 3,243 $39,516 Killeen 1,228 $38,664 Corpus Christi 642 $33,210 College Station 552 $32,610 El Paso 458 $38,432 Waco 409 $35,557 McAllen 390 $32,415 Lubbock 328 $34,850 Metro Area HHs 2011 Average HH Inc Los Angeles 1,134 $52,537 New York 866 $81,100 Chicago 859 $131,855 Washington DC 569 $83,256 San Francisco 537 $93,467 Phoenix 495 $54,658 San Diego 439 $53,419 Seattle 381 $62,068 Miami 361 $48,905 Boston 346 $58,421 Source: IRS. Tax returns are used here as proxy for households. This data includes employed college students who report a change of residence to Travis County. From Texas From Other State
- 18. How long is this likely to last? 18
- 19. 19 Housing affordability is still a selling point but Austin is losing ground Source: BLS, CES, and Zillow. Housing prices are for May 2014. Metro Area Job Growth 2009-13 Med List Price Per Sq Ft (Buy) Med List Price Per Sq Ft (Rent) San Jose 10.8% $464 $2.52 San Francisco 8.0% $412 $2.53 Denver 7.9% $180 $1.35 Seattle 5.7% $176 $1.46 Portland 6.0% $165 $1.13 Salt Lake City 8.6% $161 $0.96 Austin 13.7% $130 $1.20 Raleigh 8.2% $111 $0.80 Nashville 11.3% $110 $0.86 San Antonio 8.2% $103 $0.84 Dallas 7.8% $100 $0.99
- 20. 20 Higher incomes provide many out-of- state movers ample housing choice 1. Steiner Ranch 2. Milwood/Arrowwood 3. North Burnet/Domain 4. Blackhawk/Hidden Lake 5. Canyon Creek 6. Hyde Park 7. North Loop 8. Onion Creek 9. Barton Creek/Hills 10. Old West Austin 11. Northwest Hills 12. Preston Oaks Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2007-2011, Five-Year Estimates. Most popular neighborhoods for people relocating to Austin from out-of-state (2007-11):
- 21. 21 ZIP Pop Change 2000-10 78748 15,290 78717 14,390 78732 10,431 78747 9,729 78754 9,614 78738 9,294 78744 9,114 78739 8,149 78726 6,642 78735 6,460 Significant portions of growth pushed to periphery east & south/southeast Source: US Census Bureau, 2010 Census. Map by ESRI.
- 22. 22 20,049 22,854 13,434 10,754 9,946 11,047 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 2011 2012 2013 Travis County Williamson County Net Migration, # of People (Move In – Move Out) Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates. …and probably to Williamson County
- 23. 23 41% 52% 62% 63% 59% 55% 53% 46% 45% 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2014 City of Austin Share of Austin MSA Population Austin (city) share of metro population is back to 1940s level but stabilizing Source: Ryan Robinson, City Demographer, Department of Planning, City of Austin. January 2014.
- 24. Challenges • Combined cost of housing & transportation is true measure of affordability but overlooked due to focus on housing prices in core • No compelling long-term vision or real sense of urgency for investing in regional solutions that can scale with growth • Provision of infrastructure & public services is more expensive w/ low-density development
- 26. 26 Metro GDP Per Capita Rank San Jose $90,594 1 San Francisco $79,799 2 Seattle $71,693 5 Houston $71,191 6 Portland $63,500 11 Salt Lake City $63,194 12 Denver $62,238 13 Dallas $61,716 14 Nashville $53,921 26 Austin $52,403 28 Raleigh $50,549 33 San Antonio $40,392 49 Overall wealth creation for residents in Austin is lagging benchmark regions Source: Census, Population Estimates (2013) & BEA, GDP by Metro Area (2012). Rank is among top 50 US metros by GDP per capita. GDP per capita is imperfect but widely used measure of wealth in a regional economy. Innovative, growing regions should be accompanied by relatively higher levels of GDP per capita, as productivity gains are leveraged to improve living standards for residents through increased wages & amenities.
- 27. 30% 45% 73% 80% Asian White Black Hispanic 27 Workforce preparedness must improve to achieve inclusive participation Source: US Census Bureau, 2009 ACS 1-Year Estimates. $17 per hour is the living wage for a family of one adult and one child in Austin. http://www.familybudgets.org/ % of Population Age 25+ in Austin MSA Without a Postsecondary Degree 2/3 of job openings in next 10 years paying average of $17+ per hour will require a postsecondary degree. But just 46% of primary working age (25-64) population in Austin MSA have a postsecondary degree.
- 28. Discussion • What is economic development in Austin? • Postsecondary education & workforce training are growth management strategies—how can we get more employers investing? • How can we leverage once-in-a-generation investments (Waller Creek, medical school, urban rail) to create pathways for upward mobility for low-income workers?
- 29. @civicanalytics http://civicanalytics.com 512-731-7851 brian@civicanalytics.com 7600 Burnet Road, Suite 108 Austin, Texas 78757