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Assumptions,
                 Experiments and MVPs
                            CORE SKILLS FOR LEAN STARTUPS

                                   iGap 2012
                                  Dublin, Ireland


© LUXR.CO   February 2013
© LUXR.CO   February 2013
Ask yourself:
   What 3 assumptions about your customers
   do you have that, if you are wrong, your
   business will fail.



     Write down 3.




© LUXR.CO   February 2013
Who’s in the room?
                             LIGHTNING FAST!
       Context (startup, enterprise, consultancy)
       Role (biz/product, developer, design)


       Stand up
       Say your name
       Weird/Awesome


© LUXR.CO   February 2013
© LUXR.CO   February 2013
LUXr is the trusted coach that helps
              company founders through their hardest
              business problems.

              The LUXr Core Curriculum helps startups
              deliver products that customers want, need
              and love to buy.

                            info@luxr.co • http://luxr.co
                            twitter: @luxrco • www.facebook.com/LUXrInc


© LUXR.CO   February 2013
TWEET!
                            Janice Fraser

                            @LUXRCO
                            @clevergirl


                            www.luxr.co



© LUXR.CO   February 2013
This is not...

     A class on how to produce       (How do you know itʼs awesome?)
     an awesome UI


     A session on making             (How do you know these arenʼt
     production wireframes or        a waste of valuable time?)
     photoshop comps


     A “perfect approach” or a       (1000s of entrepreneurs have
     rigid point of view on what     used these techniques to
     makes “Great UX.”               discover an ideal UX.)


© LUXR.CO   February 2013
This is not...



                            dogma




© LUXR.CO   February 2013
Business Model Canvas?
                                 Lean Canvas?
                               Sure, either one.
© LUXR.CO   February 2013
Disclaimer
            I am not an expert in your business.

            Only you can be the expert in your business.

            My job is:
             • to ask the unasked questions;
             • to challenge assumptions;
             • and give you tools to succeed.




© LUXR.CO   February 2013
Today...
                   My perspective on Lean Startup & UX
                   3 Workshops
                            Assumptions
                            Experiments
                            “Smallification”
                   And if we have time…
                            MVP
                            Pivot Practice!

© LUXR.CO   February 2013
Lean Startup
                             (in 15 min)




© LUXR.CO   February 2013
Lean Startup is NOT

                             Cheap Startup

                              Fast Startup

                            Shortcut Startup
© LUXR.CO   February 2013
Lean Startup is NOT



                            Low-Ambition


© LUXR.CO   February 2013
Lean Startup is NOT


                            THE OPPOSITE OF
                              FAT STARTUP


© LUXR.CO   February 2013
Lean Startup is...

    An approach for building companies that are
    creating new products and services in
    situations of extreme uncertainty.

    The approach advocates creating small
    products that test the entrepreneurʼs
    assumptions, and using customer feedback to
    evolve the product, thereby reducing waste.


© LUXR.CO   February 2013
THE NEW CLASSICS
    1. List your assumptions.
    2. Understand your customers.
    3. Experiment.
    4. Adjust direction based on evidence.




© LUXR.CO   February 2013
Get out
                             of the
                            building




© LUXR.CO   February 2013
CUSTOMER DEVELOPMENT

   1. Validate the market for your idea and build a
      product that solves customersʼ needs.

   2. Find a repeatable, cost-effective model for
      acquiring customers.

   3. Acquire customers.

   4. Deploy the right organization for scaling.

© LUXR.CO   February 2013
© LUXR.CO   February 2013
© LUXR.CO   February 2013
A pitch is not customer
                   development
© LUXR.CO   February 2013
The Influence of Agile

    “The courage to speak truths,
    pleasant or unpleasant, fosters
    communication and trust.

    “The courage to discard failing
    solutions and seek new ones
    encourages simplicity.

    “The courage to seek real,
    concrete answers creates
    feedback.”
                            —Kent Beck

© LUXR.CO   February 2013
Build
                            measure
                             learn!




© LUXR.CO   February 2013
© LUXR.CO   February 2013
Lean Startup advocates experiments & learning




© LUXR.CO   February 2013
}
© LUXR.CO   February 2013
Victory is
                            measured in
                             learning.


© LUXR.CO   February 2013
This will change
                          how you think
                         about your role,
                         your work, your
                       team, your process.

© LUXR.CO   February 2013
Risk (unvalidated effort)
                                                 Plot the difference


                                                                          MAKE
                                                                                   release
                                                                MAKE
                                                                         release
                                                        MAKE   release



                                         THINK


                                                                                       time



© LUXR.CO                        February 2013
Risk (unvalidated effort)
                                             Lots of little wiggles




                                                                      time



© LUXR.CO                        February 2013
Each wiggle is a learning cycle.
     unvalidated effort




                                                                 MAKE
                                                  MAKE       MAKE
                                                              release

                                          THINK          THINK

                                                                        time
                                                     CHECK
© LUXR.CO                 February 2013
How will you learn?
                            Quantitative Qualitative



            Generative      Surveys      Interviews



            Evaluative       Metrics     Usability



© LUXR.CO   February 2013
Not an MVP
                            for lemonade


© LUXR.CO   February 2013
User Experience




© LUXR.CO   February 2013
User Experience is...

      A personʼs perceptions and responses that
      result from the use or anticipated use of a
      product, service or system.

                 product                                       UI                                 UX




    via Ed Lea: http://design.org/blog/difference-between-ux-and-ui-subtleties-explained-cereal

© LUXR.CO   February 2013
UX cycles = Lean Startup learning loops


                                                                    THINK

                                                                                                                                   MAKE


                                                            Reduc
                                                          cycle     e
                                                                 time,
                                                              not
                                                          build
                                                                time
                                                                            CHECK

                Generative Research • Ideation • Mental models • Participatory Design • Contextual Inquiry • Concept Maps •
  THINK         Behavior Models • Test Results • Competitive Analysis


  MAKE          Personas • Sketches • Prototypes • Wireframes • Value Prop • Landing View • Hypotheses • Comps • Deployed Code


  CHECK          Evaluative Research • A/B Testing • Site Analytics • Usability Testing • Funnel Analysis • Interruptive Surveys



© LUXR.CO   February 2013
Design > UI                               THINK


                                                                                         MAKE
                                                                               CHECK

                                              Users
                                                            1. I need...
                                             Needs          2. I want...
                                                            3. My goal is...
                     why
                      what
                       how
                                                            Mary can...
            Business thinking goes here                                         BUILD
                                              Uses                                      MEASURE

                                                                               LEARN



                                           Features
      Sketches, wireframes, pixels
                                                                  This Week
                                             Prototypes
                                            User Stories
                                          Themed Releases

© LUXR.CO    February 2013
UX brings 10* years
             of experience, methods, and
                             patterns of work.


            *20, 30, 50 years

© LUXR.CO   February 2013
UX people are EXPERTS at “getting out of the building”




© LUXR.CO   February 2013
The setup.



© LUXR.CO   February 2013
The job.



© LUXR.CO   February 2013
Workshop


                            Assumptions

                My assumption:
                You donʼt want to waste your time, your career,
                your patience, or your friendship building
                something that has no chance of success.




© LUXR.CO   February 2013
Workshop


                             Assumptions
            Use a sharpie, work independently, write one idea per sticky.

            Write down 10 assumptions that you & your team must validate
            in order to be sure the business idea is a good one.

            Underline the one word or phrase that summarizes each
            assumption.

            Post the teams assumptions on the wall, do a quiet read.

            Discuss to understand. Stack any duplicates.

            Divide into 2 piles: Will it kill the company if weʼre wrong?

            Stack Rank the top pile.

            Choose the top assumption to move forward into the next step.

© LUXR.CO    February 2013
Examples
            1. Many people will pay to have someone get dogfood or have
               odd jobs done.
            2. People want to run errands like getting dogfood.
            3.     We believe it is legal in the country of operation
            4.     This service is useful for disorganized people.
            5.     This service is useful to time-poor people.
            6.
            7.
            8.
            9.
            10.

© LUXR.CO   February 2013
Things To Note
        Broad ideation helps us find the best thoughts.

        For fast ideation have a specific prompt, work independently, use
        paper and pen, set a time limit, and define a number of ideas to
        create.

        Ideation applies to many logical thought processes, not just
        identifying features.

        Ideation must be followed by efficient decision-making.

        Arbitrary decisions are necessary when you have little or no data.

        For best results, do ideation with multiple people.

        Multi-person ideation relieves pressure for anyone to be a “genius”.

        Independent ideation, followed by group understanding, followed by
        fast decision-making is a uniquely efficient pattern of work.
© LUXR.CO   February 2013
Workshop


                            Experiments
              Work independently, use a sharpie and white paper.

              At the top of the paper, state the assumption as hypothesis
              that can be proved or disproved.

              Design an experiment to learn if this is true. Briefly describe it.

              State how you will know if the hypothesis is valid or invalid.
              This can be quantitative evidence or qualitative.

              How much time/money/effort will it take?

              Tape them all to the walls.

              Discuss as a group.



© LUXR.CO   February 2013
Experiment Framework
            Every experiment has three parts:

                  1. A hypothesis that is provable/disprovable
                  2. The experiment itself; the thing you build
                  3. An indicator of result

            For Example:

                  We believe people like [customer type] have a need for [need/action/
                  behavior].

                  The smallest thing we can do to prove that need is [experiment].

                  We will know we have succeeded when [quantitative/measurable
                  outcome] or [qualitative/observable outcome].

© LUXR.CO   February 2013
Example Experiments

                                                                                       measurable/
                     assumption                         experiment
                                                                                    observable outcome

                                                Prevail upon friend who runs 300-
                                                                                    5% of employees will make a
               busy people need a service to             person company
                                                                                       hire. 1 repeat booking
              help them get menial stuff done    Set up a “shop” in reception and
                                                                                                2 wks
                                                      see if we can get jobs.


                                                  ad in 10 different offices, diff
                            same                                                             2 weeks.
                                                       types of companies




© LUXR.CO   February 2013
Workshop


                            Smallification
              Take an experiment that was not your own.

              On a fresh sheet of paper, redesign the experiment:

              WHAT would you do to get approximately the same learning...

                       ...IN 2 DAYS?

                       ...IN 2 WEEKS?

                       ...IN 2 MONTHS?

                      [each person on the team chooses one time scale]

              Present your experiment proposal to your team.

              Decide which experiment to run.
© LUXR.CO   February 2013
More Things To Note
        Progress not a function of the quality, size, or # of releases.

        Smallification can be done by adjusting scope or fidelity.

        Smaller/faster experiments are usually better.
        Behavioral experiments are usually better.
        Small, behavioral experiments are usually best.

        Founders must balance size/quality and speed of learning.

        The best option is often not obvious.

        There is usually insufficient data to make a rational decision
        The decision-maker is therefore often going to be wrong.
        Wrong decisions are expected and usually not fatal.

        Progress is measured in sequential cycles of learning.

© LUXR.CO   February 2013
Workshop


                                MV P
        Work independently, with a sharpie write one idea per sticky.
        Write 10 stickies that represent what your customer needs.
        Divide them into 2 piles — 5 that matter more, 5 that matter less.
        Stack-rank the top pile and set the others aside.
        On stickies, write 10 product features that support that top need.
        Working at the wall, make a 2x2: Important/Not and Hard/Easy.
        Place your stickies individually.
        Remove the stickies below the line.
        Together, stack rank the stickies on the left.
        Decide where to cut off the MVP.

© LUXR.CO   February 2013
Things To Note (last one)
        Product roadmaps are worse than useless in a startup.

        On-time, on-budget delivery isnʼt helpful if you built the wrong thing.

        Build the smallest possible release to deliver on the use.

        Smallifying a product release is easier when you approach the
        question incrementally and stepwise.

        Focusing on a small, single-use product makes it easier to get right.

        Weʼre not rejecting the big vision. Put your imagined, full-featured
        solution out on paper, set it aside. You will understand it more
        rationally after making the small thing.




© LUXR.CO   February 2013
And now the big finish.



© LUXR.CO   February 2013
7 Habits of Highly Effective
                        Entrepreneurs
            1. Ideate with friends.
            2. Go broad.
            3. Say “Tell me about this one.”
            4. Ask “who has the D?”
            5. Make informed but arbitrary decisions.
            6. Prove it.
            7. Question perfection.
© LUXR.CO   February 2013
4 Power Tools for Entrepreneurs
                            1. Dump & Sort
                            2. Working at the Wall
                            3. Blue-tape 2x2
                            4. Dot-Voting




© LUXR.CO   February 2013

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iGap 2013, Assumptions & Experiments Workshop

  • 1. Assumptions, Experiments and MVPs CORE SKILLS FOR LEAN STARTUPS iGap 2012 Dublin, Ireland © LUXR.CO February 2013
  • 2. © LUXR.CO February 2013
  • 3. Ask yourself: What 3 assumptions about your customers do you have that, if you are wrong, your business will fail. Write down 3. © LUXR.CO February 2013
  • 4. Who’s in the room? LIGHTNING FAST! Context (startup, enterprise, consultancy) Role (biz/product, developer, design) Stand up Say your name Weird/Awesome © LUXR.CO February 2013
  • 5. © LUXR.CO February 2013
  • 6. LUXr is the trusted coach that helps company founders through their hardest business problems. The LUXr Core Curriculum helps startups deliver products that customers want, need and love to buy. info@luxr.co • http://luxr.co twitter: @luxrco • www.facebook.com/LUXrInc © LUXR.CO February 2013
  • 7. TWEET! Janice Fraser @LUXRCO @clevergirl www.luxr.co © LUXR.CO February 2013
  • 8. This is not... A class on how to produce (How do you know itʼs awesome?) an awesome UI A session on making (How do you know these arenʼt production wireframes or a waste of valuable time?) photoshop comps A “perfect approach” or a (1000s of entrepreneurs have rigid point of view on what used these techniques to makes “Great UX.” discover an ideal UX.) © LUXR.CO February 2013
  • 9. This is not... dogma © LUXR.CO February 2013
  • 10. Business Model Canvas? Lean Canvas? Sure, either one. © LUXR.CO February 2013
  • 11. Disclaimer I am not an expert in your business. Only you can be the expert in your business. My job is: • to ask the unasked questions; • to challenge assumptions; • and give you tools to succeed. © LUXR.CO February 2013
  • 12. Today... My perspective on Lean Startup & UX 3 Workshops Assumptions Experiments “Smallification” And if we have time… MVP Pivot Practice! © LUXR.CO February 2013
  • 13. Lean Startup (in 15 min) © LUXR.CO February 2013
  • 14. Lean Startup is NOT Cheap Startup Fast Startup Shortcut Startup © LUXR.CO February 2013
  • 15. Lean Startup is NOT Low-Ambition © LUXR.CO February 2013
  • 16. Lean Startup is NOT THE OPPOSITE OF FAT STARTUP © LUXR.CO February 2013
  • 17. Lean Startup is... An approach for building companies that are creating new products and services in situations of extreme uncertainty. The approach advocates creating small products that test the entrepreneurʼs assumptions, and using customer feedback to evolve the product, thereby reducing waste. © LUXR.CO February 2013
  • 18. THE NEW CLASSICS 1. List your assumptions. 2. Understand your customers. 3. Experiment. 4. Adjust direction based on evidence. © LUXR.CO February 2013
  • 19. Get out of the building © LUXR.CO February 2013
  • 20. CUSTOMER DEVELOPMENT 1. Validate the market for your idea and build a product that solves customersʼ needs. 2. Find a repeatable, cost-effective model for acquiring customers. 3. Acquire customers. 4. Deploy the right organization for scaling. © LUXR.CO February 2013
  • 21. © LUXR.CO February 2013
  • 22. © LUXR.CO February 2013
  • 23. A pitch is not customer development © LUXR.CO February 2013
  • 24. The Influence of Agile “The courage to speak truths, pleasant or unpleasant, fosters communication and trust. “The courage to discard failing solutions and seek new ones encourages simplicity. “The courage to seek real, concrete answers creates feedback.” —Kent Beck © LUXR.CO February 2013
  • 25. Build measure learn! © LUXR.CO February 2013
  • 26. © LUXR.CO February 2013
  • 27. Lean Startup advocates experiments & learning © LUXR.CO February 2013
  • 28. } © LUXR.CO February 2013
  • 29. Victory is measured in learning. © LUXR.CO February 2013
  • 30. This will change how you think about your role, your work, your team, your process. © LUXR.CO February 2013
  • 31. Risk (unvalidated effort) Plot the difference MAKE release MAKE release MAKE release THINK time © LUXR.CO February 2013
  • 32. Risk (unvalidated effort) Lots of little wiggles time © LUXR.CO February 2013
  • 33. Each wiggle is a learning cycle. unvalidated effort MAKE MAKE MAKE release THINK THINK time CHECK © LUXR.CO February 2013
  • 34. How will you learn? Quantitative Qualitative Generative Surveys Interviews Evaluative Metrics Usability © LUXR.CO February 2013
  • 35. Not an MVP for lemonade © LUXR.CO February 2013
  • 36. User Experience © LUXR.CO February 2013
  • 37. User Experience is... A personʼs perceptions and responses that result from the use or anticipated use of a product, service or system. product UI UX via Ed Lea: http://design.org/blog/difference-between-ux-and-ui-subtleties-explained-cereal © LUXR.CO February 2013
  • 38. UX cycles = Lean Startup learning loops THINK MAKE Reduc cycle e time, not build time CHECK Generative Research • Ideation • Mental models • Participatory Design • Contextual Inquiry • Concept Maps • THINK Behavior Models • Test Results • Competitive Analysis MAKE Personas • Sketches • Prototypes • Wireframes • Value Prop • Landing View • Hypotheses • Comps • Deployed Code CHECK Evaluative Research • A/B Testing • Site Analytics • Usability Testing • Funnel Analysis • Interruptive Surveys © LUXR.CO February 2013
  • 39. Design > UI THINK MAKE CHECK Users 1. I need... Needs 2. I want... 3. My goal is... why what how Mary can... Business thinking goes here BUILD Uses MEASURE LEARN Features Sketches, wireframes, pixels This Week Prototypes User Stories Themed Releases © LUXR.CO February 2013
  • 40. UX brings 10* years of experience, methods, and patterns of work. *20, 30, 50 years © LUXR.CO February 2013
  • 41. UX people are EXPERTS at “getting out of the building” © LUXR.CO February 2013
  • 42. The setup. © LUXR.CO February 2013
  • 43. The job. © LUXR.CO February 2013
  • 44. Workshop Assumptions My assumption: You donʼt want to waste your time, your career, your patience, or your friendship building something that has no chance of success. © LUXR.CO February 2013
  • 45. Workshop Assumptions Use a sharpie, work independently, write one idea per sticky. Write down 10 assumptions that you & your team must validate in order to be sure the business idea is a good one. Underline the one word or phrase that summarizes each assumption. Post the teams assumptions on the wall, do a quiet read. Discuss to understand. Stack any duplicates. Divide into 2 piles: Will it kill the company if weʼre wrong? Stack Rank the top pile. Choose the top assumption to move forward into the next step. © LUXR.CO February 2013
  • 46. Examples 1. Many people will pay to have someone get dogfood or have odd jobs done. 2. People want to run errands like getting dogfood. 3. We believe it is legal in the country of operation 4. This service is useful for disorganized people. 5. This service is useful to time-poor people. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. © LUXR.CO February 2013
  • 47. Things To Note Broad ideation helps us find the best thoughts. For fast ideation have a specific prompt, work independently, use paper and pen, set a time limit, and define a number of ideas to create. Ideation applies to many logical thought processes, not just identifying features. Ideation must be followed by efficient decision-making. Arbitrary decisions are necessary when you have little or no data. For best results, do ideation with multiple people. Multi-person ideation relieves pressure for anyone to be a “genius”. Independent ideation, followed by group understanding, followed by fast decision-making is a uniquely efficient pattern of work. © LUXR.CO February 2013
  • 48. Workshop Experiments Work independently, use a sharpie and white paper. At the top of the paper, state the assumption as hypothesis that can be proved or disproved. Design an experiment to learn if this is true. Briefly describe it. State how you will know if the hypothesis is valid or invalid. This can be quantitative evidence or qualitative. How much time/money/effort will it take? Tape them all to the walls. Discuss as a group. © LUXR.CO February 2013
  • 49. Experiment Framework Every experiment has three parts: 1. A hypothesis that is provable/disprovable 2. The experiment itself; the thing you build 3. An indicator of result For Example: We believe people like [customer type] have a need for [need/action/ behavior]. The smallest thing we can do to prove that need is [experiment]. We will know we have succeeded when [quantitative/measurable outcome] or [qualitative/observable outcome]. © LUXR.CO February 2013
  • 50. Example Experiments measurable/ assumption experiment observable outcome Prevail upon friend who runs 300- 5% of employees will make a busy people need a service to person company hire. 1 repeat booking help them get menial stuff done Set up a “shop” in reception and 2 wks see if we can get jobs. ad in 10 different offices, diff same 2 weeks. types of companies © LUXR.CO February 2013
  • 51. Workshop Smallification Take an experiment that was not your own. On a fresh sheet of paper, redesign the experiment: WHAT would you do to get approximately the same learning... ...IN 2 DAYS? ...IN 2 WEEKS? ...IN 2 MONTHS? [each person on the team chooses one time scale] Present your experiment proposal to your team. Decide which experiment to run. © LUXR.CO February 2013
  • 52. More Things To Note Progress not a function of the quality, size, or # of releases. Smallification can be done by adjusting scope or fidelity. Smaller/faster experiments are usually better. Behavioral experiments are usually better. Small, behavioral experiments are usually best. Founders must balance size/quality and speed of learning. The best option is often not obvious. There is usually insufficient data to make a rational decision The decision-maker is therefore often going to be wrong. Wrong decisions are expected and usually not fatal. Progress is measured in sequential cycles of learning. © LUXR.CO February 2013
  • 53. Workshop MV P Work independently, with a sharpie write one idea per sticky. Write 10 stickies that represent what your customer needs. Divide them into 2 piles — 5 that matter more, 5 that matter less. Stack-rank the top pile and set the others aside. On stickies, write 10 product features that support that top need. Working at the wall, make a 2x2: Important/Not and Hard/Easy. Place your stickies individually. Remove the stickies below the line. Together, stack rank the stickies on the left. Decide where to cut off the MVP. © LUXR.CO February 2013
  • 54. Things To Note (last one) Product roadmaps are worse than useless in a startup. On-time, on-budget delivery isnʼt helpful if you built the wrong thing. Build the smallest possible release to deliver on the use. Smallifying a product release is easier when you approach the question incrementally and stepwise. Focusing on a small, single-use product makes it easier to get right. Weʼre not rejecting the big vision. Put your imagined, full-featured solution out on paper, set it aside. You will understand it more rationally after making the small thing. © LUXR.CO February 2013
  • 55. And now the big finish. © LUXR.CO February 2013
  • 56. 7 Habits of Highly Effective Entrepreneurs 1. Ideate with friends. 2. Go broad. 3. Say “Tell me about this one.” 4. Ask “who has the D?” 5. Make informed but arbitrary decisions. 6. Prove it. 7. Question perfection. © LUXR.CO February 2013
  • 57. 4 Power Tools for Entrepreneurs 1. Dump & Sort 2. Working at the Wall 3. Blue-tape 2x2 4. Dot-Voting © LUXR.CO February 2013