Contenu connexe Similaire à 2014 iGap - assumptions and experiments (20) Plus de Janice Fraser (14) 2014 iGap - assumptions and experiments4. Assumptions
My assumption:
You don’t want to waste your time, your
career, your patience, or your friendship
building something that has little chance
of success.
© 2014 LUXr.co
5. Identify assumptions
Use a sharpie and sticky notes
Work independently,
Write one idea per sticky.
Come up with 10 assumptions you have about your company.
© 2013 LUXr.co
© 2013 LUXr.co
© 2014 LUXr.co
6. Divide into 2 piles
Everything
else
Will kill the company
in the next 6 months
if we’re wrong
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© 2013 LUXr.co
© 2014 LUXr.co
8. Stack rank the urgents
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© 2013 LUXr.co
© 2014 LUXr.co
“Which must we
validate first?”
9. Pick the top one
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© 2013 LUXr.co
© 2014 LUXr.co
10. Examples
1.
Many people will pay to have someone get dogfood or have odd jobs
done.
2.
People want to run errands like getting dogfood.
3.
We believe it is legal in the country of operation
4.
This service is useful for disorganized people.
5.
This service is useful to time-poor people.
6.
7.
© 2014 LUXr.co
11. Things To Note
Broad ideation helps us find the best thoughts.
For fast ideation have a specific prompt, work independently, use paper and
pen, set a time limit, and define a number of ideas to create.
Ideation applies to many logical thought processes, not just identifying
features.
Ideation must be followed by efficient decision-making.
Arbitrary decisions are necessary when you have little or no data.
For best results, do ideation with multiple people.
Multi-person ideation relieves pressure for anyone to be a “genius”.
Independent ideation, followed by group understanding, followed by fast
decision-making is a uniquely efficient pattern of work.
© LUXR.CO
2014
13. Experiment Framework
3 parts:
1. Hypothesis that is provable/disprovable
2. The experiment itself; the thing you build
3. An indicator of result
© 2014 LUXr.co
14. Experiment Framework
Every experiment has three parts:
1. A hypothesis that is provable/disprovable
2. The experiment itself; the thing you build
3. An indicator of result
For Example:
We believe people like [customer type] have a need for [need/action/behavior].
The smallest thing we can do to prove that need is [experiment].
We will know we have succeeded when [quantitative/measurable outcome] or
[qualitative/observable outcome].
© 2014 LUXr.co
15. State the assumption
as a hypothesis
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© 2013 LUXr.co
You must be
able to prove or
disprove this.
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16. Design an experiment
to learn if this is true.
Briefly describe it, using the three parts.
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© 2013 LUXr.co
State how you will know if the hypothesis is valid
or invalid. This can be quantitative evidence or
qualitative.
How much time/money/effort will it take?
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18. On a fresh sheet,
redesign the experiment
What would you do to get approximately the same
learning...
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© 2013 LUXr.co
IN 2 DAYS?
IN 2 WEEKS?
IN 2 MONTHS?
© 2014 LUXr.co
19. Discuss, then pick the
experiment to run.
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21. More Things To Note
Progress not a function of the quality, size, or # of releases.
Smallification can be done by adjusting scope or fidelity.
Smaller/faster experiments are usually better.
Behavioral experiments are usually better.
Small, behavioral experiments are usually best.
Founders must balance size/quality and speed of learning.
The best option is often not obvious.
There is usually insufficient data to make a rational decision
The decision-maker is therefore often going to be wrong.
Wrong decisions are expected and usually not fatal.
Progress is measured in sequential cycles of learning.
© LUXR.CO
2014