1. Videos & GDP 2nd Quarter GDP: 1.3% (Advanced Estimate) Source: CNBC, Economic Times, the Economist, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Video & Economic Summary Videos start with 15 sec commercial Revisions in GDP Data Hire Expectations ( 3 min 24 sec) Matt Ferguson, CareerBuilder CEO (CNBC, Prior to the job numbers, Aug 4, 2011) Where is the Economy Headed? (4 min 43 Sec) CNBC Click to Play Click to Play “ A shock downward revision to US first-quarter economic growth that fanned fears of a new recession reflected a new data-crunching method more than a big shift in the underlying data. The Commerce Department government last Friday slashed its measure of gross domestic product growth for the first three months of 2011 by 1.5 percentage points to a mere 0.4 per cent annual rate. One major factor was a revision to inventories. Inventories subtracted much less from fourth quarter growth than had previously been thought, and so ended up adding less to growth during the first three months of the year.” - Economic Times “ A new trove of GDP data reveals America’s recession to be much deeper than previously understood, and the recovery much more tenuous. America’s economy shambled forward at a 1.3% annual pace in the three months to June, according to a preliminary estimate of growth. But that wretched statistic passed for good news compared with the rest of the report. Activity quickened from a miserable first quarter in which the economy flirted with a return to recession, growing by only 0.4% at an annual rate. For the year to June, the second full year of the recovery, it grew by just 1.6%. Over the same period after the 1982 recession, the economy leapt forward by 5.6%.” - The Economist
2. US Employment Situation Number of people employed as a temporary employee divided by total non farm payroll employment June 2009 Recession Officially Ended July 2009 Temp Penetration Trend Turns Positive Oct 2009 1 st Job Growth >100,000 (Household Survey) Nov 2009 1 st Job Growth (Payroll Survey) Temp Employment Temporary help services gained 300 jobs. Why is the Temp Penetration Rate Important? “ Temporary Help Employment is a Leading Indicator for Nonfarm Employment—Staffing job trends lead nonfarm employment by three months when the economy is emerging from a recession and by six months during periods of normal economic growth . ” American Staffing Association Temp Penetration Rate: 1.70% -. 01% Job Loss/Gain: + 117,000 Jobs Unemployment Rate: 9.1% -0.1% I Unemployment Rate: Bachelor’s Degree or higher Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, American Staffing Association March April May June July 4.4% 4.5% 4.5% 4.4% 4.3% Nonfarm Payroll – Job Growth Details Jobs Added/Lost Private Sector 154,000 Government Sector -37,000 Total 117,000 Job Loses Change from Previous Month Government -37,000 Financial Activities -4,000 Job Gains Change from Previous Month Professional & Business Services 34,000 Retail Trade 25,900 Manufacturing 24,000 Leisure & Hospitality 17,000 Construction 8,000 Education & Health Services 38,000 - Education 1,600 - Healthcare 31,300 - Social Assistance 5,400
3. Projections & Sector Comparison Labor Market Notches Slight Gains (Wall Street Journal) Unemployment Rate Projections Survey of Economists (Wall Street Journal) Source: Wall Street Journal, New York Times Please note: WSJ Projections were released prior to the BLS report GDP Projections Survey of Economists (Wall Street Journal)