2. Items to Note & GDP 3rd Quarter GDP: 1.8% (3rd Estimate) Sources: Business Insider – Wall Street Journal, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Video Matt Ferguson, (4 min 54 sec) Play Video CareerBuilder CEO, CNBC Squawk Box CareerBuilder’s 2012 Hiring Forecast Survey This Power Point must be viewed in Slide Show Mode to activate the videos or hyperlinks To Download the Full Report Click: http://bit.ly/rGGoya “ Historically, our surveys have shown that employers are more conservative in their predictions than actual hiring,” said Matt Ferguson, CEO of CareerBuilder. “Barring any major economic upsets, we expect 2012 to bring a better hiring picture than 2011 especially in the second half of the year. Many companies have been operating lean and have already pushed productivity limits. We’re likely to see gradual improvements in hiring across categories as companies respond to increased market demands.” 2010 2011 Components of GDP 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd Consumers 1.92% 2.05% 1.85% 2.48% 1.47% 0.49% 1.24% (Personal Consumption) *Businesses 3.25% 2.92% 1.14% -0.91% 0.47% 0.79% 0.17% (Gross Private Domestic Investment) Net Exports (Exports-Imports) -0.97% -1.94% -0.68% 1.37% -0.34% 0.24% 0.43% Government -0.26% 0.77% 0.20% -0.58% -1.23% -0.18% 0.02% Total GDP 3.94% 3.80% 2.51% 2.36% 0.37% 1.34% 1.86% *Inventories 3.10% 0.79% 0.86% -1.79% 0.32% -0.28% -1.35% component of Business
3. US Employment Situation Number of people employed as a temporary employee divided by total non farm payroll employment June 2009 Recession Officially Ended July 2009 Temp Penetration Trend Turns Positive Oct 2009 1 st Job Growth >100,000 (Household Survey) Nov 2009 1 st Job Growth (Payroll Survey) Temp Employment Temporary help services gained -7,500 jobs. Why is the Temp Penetration Rate Important? “ Temporary Help Employment is a Leading Indicator for Nonfarm Employment—Staffing job trends lead nonfarm employment by three months when the economy is emerging from a recession and by six months during periods of normal economic growth . ” American Staffing Association Temp Penetration Rate: 1.75% no change Job Loss/Gain: + 200,000 Jobs Unemployment Rate: 8.5% -.2% I Unemployment Rate: Bachelor’s Degree or higher Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, American Staffing Association August Sept October Nov Dec 4.3% 4.2% 4.4% 4.4% 4.1% Nonfarm Payroll – Job Growth Details Jobs Added/Lost Private Sector 212,000 Government Sector -12,000 Total 200,000 Job Loses Change from Previous Month Government -12,000 Job Gains Change from Previous Month Retail Trade 27,900 Manufacturing 23,000 Leisure & Hospitality 21,000 Construction 17,000 Professional & Business Services 12,000 Financial Activities 2,000 Education & Health Services 29,000 - Education 100 - Healthcare 22,600 - Social Assistance 6,100
4. Projections & Sector Comparison Initial Claims (Unemployment Insurance) & Employment Recovery Baird Equity Research Unemployment Rate Projections Survey of Economists (Wall Street Journal) Source: Wall Street Journal, Baird Equity Research, Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics Please note: WSJ Projections were released prior to the BLS report GDP Projections Survey of Economists (Wall Street Journal)