Advanced Hmi Autotechinsider White Paper 11 10

The Advanced User Interface –
Essential for the Safe and Connected Car

AutoTechinsider LLC White Paper November 2010

The Automotive UI – Strategic to the Brand

The auto industry is getting a “bum wrap”, as they say. Every article that we have read over
the last few years characterized our industry as conventional, conservative or “old-school”,
that is, resistive to adapting new ideas. Not true – our auto industry is undergoing
tremendous change and is embracing technologies to produce a connected, green and safer
car. As Charles Dickens said in the Tale of Two Cities, “It was the best of times, it was the
worst of times…” The US auto industry is emerging from the worst of financial times, the
worst crisis it has faced since the depression. Fortunately, our Industry has embraced
technologies that will produce the “best” possible driving experience for the driving pubic. The
Ford Motor Company is held up as the shining example of embracing change with SYNC as
the marquee product. Ford is selling more cars with compelling technology and what is
termed the signature-branded User Interface (UI). “Ford SYNC has shown there is a demand
for advanced UIs,” according to Joe Kennedy, president of Pandora. Ford was the first OEM
to announce Internet radio in the car!

Customers crave new
features, especially those
related to entertainment.
These new features are now
called ‘applications’ because
they work on various
computing or smart phone
platforms and in various cars.
The Apple app store is the
fastest growing enterprise. On
January 16, 2009, Apple
announced that 500 million
apps had been downloaded;
the billionth application was
downloaded only four months
later.1 Ford announced at the
January 2010 Consumer
Electronics Show that a SYNC
car would support
downloadable apps stores.
Other OEMs are quickly
responding, ushering in the
best of times for the driving
public.

1
http://www.apple.com/ca/press/2009_04/app_store.html

Dave
McNamara
-‐
Autotechinsder
LLC

1
November
8,
2010



The advanced UI is strategic to getting more features/functions in the car. Autotechinsider
LLC has quantified the UI space as a large and growing business. We conducted a recent
study for Telematics Update Business Intelligence, which quantified a $1.8 Billion market in
2013 for displays, software, and controls - switches/haptics. The overall HMI revenue with a
CAGR of about 14% (2009-2016) is significant. New hardware components will be added to
allow drivers and passengers to access new features, especially connected vehicle services.
HMI components are estimated at about 2-3% of overall total ADAS and infotainment costs,
which are growing at about a 7–8% annual rate. In conclusion, growth not de-contenting of
vehicles can be expected. The HMI is the all- important means to bring new content into the
vehicle. Hence, the HMI is strategic and worthy of investment as a new, affordable robust
technology becomes available.

The size of the HMI Opportunity

Dave
McNamara
-‐
Autotechinsder
LLC

2
November
8,
2010



If this is not enough, safety systems, specifically Diver Assistance Systems (DAS), are the
fastest growing auto elecs. segment, with ACC and side vision as the vanguard.i In the past,
ABS, seat belts and airbags were high safety wants. Today, OEMs are positioning DAS
especially on luxury vehicles as a key product differentiator. On top of this new infrastructure
based safety features, based on Vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) and Vehicle-to-Infrastructure (V2I)
or I2V will show up in cars in the 2014-17 time frame. As shown in the chart on the next
page, these new safety features will have significant impact on the automotive UI. Please
visit the IntelliDriveSM website, www.intelidrive.org, to see the videos of Intersection collision
warning/mitigation features to see first how drivers will benefit.ii The goal in mind is
eventually autonomous driving or cooperative driving. The Volvo City Driving feature, stop-
and-go ACC is a forerunner of new “autonomous driving” to allow hands off the wheel and
foot off the accelerator driving under certain conditions.iii It’s easy to envision stop-and-go
ACC evolving into “Platooning” – the driver relies on the system for low speed driving, joining
a group of vehicles travelling faster than the “congestion” speed. Today, new ADAS systems
require the driver to be fully responsible for mitigating any collision, e.g. blind spot detection
and lane departure. Autonomous driving is a ways off, therefore, capable HMIs will be
needed to support all this new information presented to the driver.

Dave
McNamara
-‐
Autotechinsder
LLC

3
November
8,
2010



As shown below new features/functions, such as forward collision, night vision, intersection
safety, do not pass, etc. will have a major design impact on the UI requiring new
technologies. For example, several of the HMI experts we interviewed indicated the need for
Heads-Up displays (HUDs) as the means to get new safe treated information into the car.
Even though HMI experts agree auditory alerts, especially the “alarm bell” type get our
attention, we need a visual display in the field of view with the critical information as to the
nature of the alert.

The Impact of new features/functions on the automotive HMI

Dave
McNamara
-‐
Autotechinsder
LLC

4
November
8,
2010



The basis of this article is the author’s work to compile a comprehensive report for Telematics
Update Business Intelligence, titled “The Automotive User Interface the Key Brand
Differentiator”.iv In-depth interviews with more than 30 experts in the U.S. and Europe were
conducted and 75 users and decision makers were surveyed. These industry leaders agreed
on the strategic importance of the HMI and that their customers wanted both new safety and
connectivity features! OEMs are learning from Apple and the CE industry to be user-
experience focused versus developing task-centric UIs. Great user experiences are clearly
defined by the iPhone and iPod, according to the Telematics Update survey and expert
interviews. “Apple has showed us that there is a market for the better user interface, They
took complex devices and made them simple – hiding the complexity”, according to Rod
MacKenzie ITS-America’s CTO. What translates well from the CE world to the automotive
word is still a subject of debate, however. Defining the user experience for the car means
including a wide range of features and functions, encompassing safety, infotainment, and
now the use of devices outside the car (remote control apps, for example).

The experts described to us why the advanced UI is important, as:
1. A brand differentiator, overall the car is easier to use and safer than the competition
2. An enabler of valued safety features/functions: the need to integrate new DAS features
and deal with infotainment-related distraction issues
3. Improved time-to-market with new features; the UI has now become a constraint, new
adaptable platforms and tools are needed
4. A response to consumer demand - affordable, capable UIs are moving downscale
because consumers want them
5. A response to the Consumer Electronics (CE) industry. The CE industry drives demand,
but doesn’t design with driving in mind and can’t do integration at the car level. OEMs
need to take control and build a capable UI platform.

The HMI Development Process is the Key Enabler

OEMs think they are best at designing the UI with driving as the primary task. “The CE
industry doesn’t design with driving in mind” explains why the industry is viewed as slow and
conservative. The OEM HMI development process is resource and time consuming. The
process is geared to minimize the risk of inappropriate customer “field testing” and
importantly distraction. But, everyone today agrees that safety features and connectivity sell
cars. How to get all these features/functions in the car while meeting the highest quality,
reliability and affordability?

The OEMs and Suppliers interviewed and our on-line survey described the “best-in-class”
development process as keeping these goals in mind:

74.0% of respondents listed easy-to-use/simple
12.3% of respondents listed safe to use
5.5%of respondents listed aesthetics/attractiveness
2.7%of respondents listed cost value

Dave
McNamara
-‐
Autotechinsder
LLC

5
November
8,
2010



The industry as a first step has participated in government and industry cooperative efforts as
the means to understand key safety related problems .The Collision Avoidance Metrics
Partnership (CAMP) is the key industry effort, in collaboration with NHTSA and the USDOT;
to develop an understanding on how new safety features/functions should work. v CAMP,
created by GM and Ford in 1995 has worked to resolve the key pre-competitive issues
needed for deployment of these new safety features. OEMs will take these learnings to
develop executions consistent with their brands and vehicle/interior architectures. Also, the
Integrated Vehicle-Based Safety Systems (IVBSS), the five-year cooperative research
project, combined several DAS features/functions (forward collision, lane departure, lane
change, and curve speed warning) into an integrated system.

The concern for ease and simple to use applies to safety and connectivity features/functions
alike. The key question is how well do safety features work, the class of features that interact
directly with the driver through the senses and rely on the driver to take action. Do these new
safety have “value”, in the sense of reducing accidents with out negative consequences?
Relative to HMI development we ask a different set of questions, how effective is the “alert”
that is being understood and appropriately acted on. In the case of infotainment features,
that we use everyday of an entertainment (Pandora) and information (navigation with traffic)
related, distraction is the key issue.

As mentioned, designing safe treated
features/functions has a very different set
of considerations. The use of vehicle
simulators has significantly increased the
understanding of alerts and warnings,
because realistic driving scenarios can be
created to measure response without
putting anyone at risk. Ford, Toyota, GM,
and other OEMs and suppliers have
vehicle simulators and have used them to
test possible warning solutions. Many of
these experiments have been done in
collaboration with NHTSA, specifically
with CAMP. The naturalistic studies
focused on front collision, blind spot, lane
change, curve speed, and backup-
warning systems. The systems that made
use of instrument cluster based displays,
heads-up displays, haptic seats, and a
variety of audible warnings. Results
showed that the most effective solutions
use warnings that appropriately communicate urgency and combine sensory alerts.
Basically, haptic warnings must be intuitively related to event, visual warnings must be clearly
seen without having to look down, and the audible warnings must be of a frequency that is
clearly heard by people of all ages.

Dave
McNamara
-‐
Autotechinsder
LLC

6
November
8,
2010



To make these warning systems truly useful for protecting people and saving lives, the
system that detects the problem condition (and generates a warning) must have a high
degree of accuracy, and must not generate false positives. If drivers lose confidence in
warning systems, they will disregard the warning and render it useless. Basically, the
accuracy and dependability of the detection system is as important as the effectiveness of
the warning itself. CAMP has identified these criteria for designing displays, the combination
of visual and auditory alerts: vi
1. get attention (auditory best)
2. convey urgency (auditory best)
3. be annoying (combination)
4. be understandable (visual best)
5. be effective at indicating where the collision is (visual best)
6. be effective about what to do (visual best)
7. overall utility.vii

The OEMs surveyed all have formal design processes that are an intimate part of their
overall vehicle design process. This implies that design guidelines must be met and verified
before proceeding. Several tier ones also have a formal process around capturing customer
and technology trends and verifying requirements. Some of those surveyed indicated that
they are currently creating a disciplined HMI process. Regardless of whether the OEM directs
and specifies all or some of the HMI development process, these are the critical success
factors:
 Human factors: professionals who are knowledgeable and experienced
 Strong internal design guidelines
 Continuous benchmarking of the competition
 Participation in key consortiums
 Generic usability or naturalistic studies to understand driver behavior
 A formal software development process: involving requirements capture
 On-going product improvement through social networks: including customer and
developer involvement

Dave
McNamara
-‐
Autotechinsder
LLC

7
November
8,
2010



It is important to identify the tier two suppliers who are focused on providing platforms and
tool sets for developing advanced UIs. The three that were often mentioned in our interviews
were Altia, Elektrobit, and MECEL who are revolutionizing UI design, providing software tools
and collaborative approaches. To help us visualize the process, the graphic below outlines a
generic process for creating an infotainment system with a touch screen. The starting points
for this process are well thought-out use cases.

Dave
McNamara
-‐
Autotechinsder
LLC

8
November
8,
2010



Advanced UIs – The Future Safe and Connected Car

We asked the experts (in our interviews and on-line survey) who are the current leaders,
what technologies and processes do they employ (previously discussed) and what will the
future UI look like (with 2015 in view). You will have to read the full 100-page report because
of the brevity of this article, but here are selected findings:
 The multi-modal UI as represented by the Audi A8 received high marks. Multi-modal
means the use of large displays, easy to reach controls/steering wheel controls
supplemented by voice.

 The use of large panel displays in the cluster and center stack, especially. Haptics will
largely be a luxury vehicle application, as will be OLEDs. As one expert said, “It’s all
about getting larger, more capable displays in the cars.” According to another expert,
“Affordability is the issue relative to application.” Volume application, expected around
2015 is needed in HUDs and large cluster LCDs before wide adoption in mid-range
and smaller cars. The 2010 Range Rover with the 12inch LCD and the Lexus with
the use of super bright OLEDs are showing us the future.

Dave
McNamara
-‐
Autotechinsder
LLC

9
November
8,
2010



Lexus OLED for Navigation Display

2010 Range Rover LCD Display Cluster

Dave
McNamara
-‐
Autotechinsder
LLC

10
November
8,
2010



 Haptics as represented by the new BMW 5-series has arrived and significantly
improved i-Drive such that it received a best-in-class rating. Also, surprisingly many
think haptics will relegate voice recognition to complex data entry tasks (e.g. Music
search implemented in Ford SYNC).

 OEMs such as Mercedes are showing publically implementations of new collision
warning features see below. Challenges remain on how these new functions
associated with curve speed warning and intersection safety will be integrated in the
car. For this reason, the USDOT proposed a safety pilot of 1000 or so vehicles in the
2011-2012 time frame, as well as continuing CAMP’s work.viii

 Surprising the resurgence of HUDs is expected, as several experts indicated that
HUDs are now affordable and more importantly packageable. HUDs are a new
display surface, a way to get important information into the car! Our report
forecasted significant growth in HUD applications in the 2013-2015 tine frame

Dave
McNamara
-‐
Autotechinsder
LLC

11
November
8,
2010



The year 2015 will be an important one for the auto industry and for the advancement of the
auto UI. The U.S. auto industry is expected to have restructured and largely recovered by
2015, returning to the 1976–2020 trend line of about 16 million vehicles sold per yearix. The
vehicle of 2015 will be safe and connected, built on open, green, and energy-efficient
platforms. We think the new technological trends include:
• Significant penetration of DAS features augmented by IntelliDrive SM features,
cooperative driving systems introduced
• Connected car technologies will be available on all vehicle types, including mid-range
and lower-end vehicles, with UIs designed to be safe, affordable, easy to use, and
aligned with brand identity.
• Best-practice HMI development process and associated tool sets adopted
• The strongest brands and suppliers will be the winners. They are best placed to
respond to customer demands and have already adopted advanced UIs

Dave
McNamara
-‐
Autotechinsder
LLC

12
November
8,
2010



In conclusion, below are two contrasting views of the advanced UI or cockpit of the 2015
vehicle. The windscreen display is “over-the-top” but recognizes the need for a new display
surface. We agree expanded but a more judicious use of HUDs. The graphic on the next
page is what we summarized from what the experts told us, the “multi-modal” UI.

Wired Magazine – the windshield is the display

Dave
McNamara
-‐
Autotechinsder
LLC

13
November
8,
2010



The 2105 Advanced UI

Adoption of the advance UI will be steady and will
require significant “value engineering” to achieve the
right performance with quality and affordability. We
expect governments to encourage and accelerate
deployment through regulatory actions. For example
in the US we expect NHTSA to use New Car
Assessment Program (NCAP) to encourage OEMs
to build safer vehicles and consumers to buy them.
Important to the development of new active safety
products, NHTSA has added new rating categories
to NCAP. The current focus on “crash worthiness”
testing to change to “crash avoidance” testing.

Dave
McNamara
-‐
Autotechinsder
LLC

14
November
8,
2010



The HMI is indeed strategic as we enter the “best of times”, as our cars become safer and
connected. We just need to design easy to use and effective UIs to accommodate more
features/functions and at the same time deal with driver distraction. Fortunately, our former
“old-school” auto industry is up to these challenges. The unfortunate alternative is de-
contenting, what the driving public doesn’t want!!

Frost
and
Sullivan
2008
market
reports

i

ii

http://www.intellidriveusa.org/library/videos/ica.php

iii

2009
New
York
Auto
Show:
Volvo
XC60
with
City
Safety
forerunner
of
Platooning

iv
http://www.telematicsupdate.com/human-‐machine-‐interface-‐report/index.html

v

VEHICLE
SAFETY
COMMUNICATIONS
IN
THE
UNITED
STATES,
Michael
Shulman

Ford
Motor
Company
United
States
Richard
Deering
General
Motors
Corporation
United
States

Paper
Number
07-‐0010

vi

NHTSA
–
CAMP
Annual
Report

vii

http://www.nhtsa.gov/people/injury/research/pub/acas/Ch3-‐10.htm

viii

The
USDOT
has
recently
announced
that
a
site
will
be
chosen
to
launch
this
―safety
pilotǁ‖
of
V2V
safety

applications,
thousand
of
vehicles
will
be
involved

•
the
pilot
goals
presented
at
a
recent
USDOT
workshop
were
to
support
the
2013
Regulatory
V2V
Decision

with
field
data
and
drive
public
awareness
&
acceptance.

•
Expect
this
project
to
be
a
launched
in
2011
running
through
2012
as
a
key
input
to
federal
rulemaking.

According
to
the
Center
for
Automotive
Research

ix

Dave
McNamara
-‐
Autotechinsder
LLC

15
November
8,
2010

Advanced Hmi Autotechinsider White Paper 11 10

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