COMMON Europe Congress 2012 - Vienna

1. IBM Technology Leadership
and
IT Futures
Common Europe
Congress Vienna, Austria
June 9-12, 2012
Wolfgang Singer, Honorary Member of IBM IT-Specialist Community
Singerw2@gmail.com
1

2. Intellectual Property and Standards
USPTO Top 10 Patentees – 2011
IBM has the patent leadership
for the 19th consecutive year.
Hundreds of patents donated.
2
2 IBM Patent Leadership © 2012 IBM Corporation

3. IBM Systems and Technology Group
IBM Research Worldwide
Yorktown Rüschlikon
Almaden Beijing
I
Austin Tokyo
Haifa Delhi
3 © 2012 IBM Corporation

4. And …
Coping with Scale
T
• In data Internet of Things
• In numbers of producers
• In numbers of consumers
G Internet, Web 2.0
Distributed Computing
M
Data Center
K
1980 1990 2000 2010
4 © 2009 IBM Corporation

5. The Internet of Things
Cars Homes
Appliances Cellphones
Sensors Consumer
electronics
Everything

6. We Have 3 or 4 Years
 If we make the right choices:
 The Internet continues to grow
 Bandwidth explodes
 Wireless everwhere
 10x, 100x more applications
 Internet of Things > Invisible Computing
 If we blow it:
 Internet becomes Cable TV
 Innovation shuts down

7. Internet Conclusions
 The Internet Revolution is less than 15%
complete
 The Internet Revolution will be as
disruptive as the printing press, but:
 Much faster
 Totally global
 More unpredictable (incl. Cybercrimes)
 Privacy vs. openness

8. IBM Systems and Technology Group
Storage Class Memory (SCM)
 Phase-Change Non-volatile Memory:
Drastic reduction in cost/GB by development of
novel low cost materials (e.g. Germanium-
Antimony-Telluride chips)
Joint research of IBM, Macronix & Qimonda
 Compared to RAM
Non-volatile
small % of DRAM cost
 Compared to HDD
No moving parts => High reliability
Significantly higher performance (50-1000x) I
Much lower power consumption
Small form factor
Small premium in cost
 Compared to Flash memory
>500 times faster SiOx
>10000 times more endurance
Pt
(for XSEM)
5nm 3nm GeSb SiO2
Half the power consumption SiOx
layer
Extreme density – PCM cell is nanotechnology:
3nm-by-20nm in size TiN 10nm GeSb layer TiN
100n SiO2
m
First usable chip: 2011, enterprise systems: 2012/2013, complete disk replacement: 2020?
8 © 2012 IBM Corporation

9. IBM Research
Atomic Scale Magnetism
 Magnetic anisotropy determines whether an
atom’s magnetic orientation is stable over
time.
 Previous measurements of magnetic
anisotropy have required averaging over
millions of atoms.
 A scanning tunneling microscope was used
to measure the magnetic anisotropy of a
Fe
single atom.
N N
Cu Cu
 Expect to control and read the magnetic
Cu
orientation of a single atom for storing of
information.
CNBC video
© 2012 IBM Corporation 9

10. IBM Systems and Technology Group
Racetrack Digital Storage
• Data stored in magnetic domain walls
• Billions of nanowires used on silicon chip
• 100 times more storage than on disk or flash
• Much faster than existing storage
 Read and write in a nanosecond I
• Introduction in 4-6 years
Stuart Parkin, inventor of
GMR read heads.
Nobel price for GMR for
Peter Gruenberg (D) and
Albert Fert (F) 2007.
10
10 © 2012 IBM Corporation

11. Electric vehicles in a distributed and integrated market using sustainable energy and open networks
Neue Batterie Technologien im Vormarsch
Source:
SonntagsZeitung
25 October 2009
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11 © 2012 IBM Corporation

12. Electric vehicles in a distributed and integrated market using sustainable energy and open networks
Batterie Gewichtsunterschiede
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12 © 2012 IBM Corporation

13. IBM Research
Electric Power Grid in Bornholm
13 © 2011 IBM Corporation

14. Fully Homomorphic Encryption
 Fully homomorphic encryption is a privacy
enabling technology
 Allows encrypted user data to be
processed without the server knowing the
content
 Results returned to authorized user for
decryption
 Privacy-enhanced cloud services
Craig Gentry, a 35-year-old IBM researcher,
solved this 30-year cryptographic problem
2010 ACM Distinguished Dissertation Award
2010 Best Paper Award – IACR Crypto
2010 Privacy Enhancing Technology Award
2009 Privacy Innovation Award from the Intl.
Association of Privacy Professionals
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14 © 2012 IBM Corporation

15. IBM Research - Zurich
Nano-World – Scale of Things
Things Natural 10-2 m 1 cm Things Manmade
10 mm
Head of a Pin
1-2 mm
1,000,000 nanometers
10-3 m = 1 millimeter (mm)
Ant ~ 5 mm Micro-Electromechanical
Microwave
(MEMS) Devices
Dust Mite 10 -100 μm wide
200 μm 10-4 m 0.1 mm
100 μm
Mikro-Welt
Human Hair Fly Ash
~ 60-120 μm wide ~ 10-20μm
10-5 m 0.01 mm
10 μm Pollen Grain
Infrared
Red Blood Red Blood Cell Zone Plate x-ray “Lens”
Cells Outer ring spacing ~35 nm
(~7-8 μm) 1,000 nanometers
10-6 m Today CMOS Gate Length
Visible
= 1 micrometer (μm) Gate Length ~35 nm
10-7 m 0.1 μm
100 nm Elektrodes for
Ultraviolet
Carbon
Self-assembled, Nature- Nanotubes
Nano-
Welt
10-8 m 0.01 μm inspired structure
Virus 10 nm Many 10s of nm
25-100 nm diameter ATP synthase
~10 nm diameter Corral diameter 14 nm
10-9 m 1 nanometer (nm) Carbon
buckyball
Soft x-ray
~1 nm diameter
Carbon Nanotube
~1.3 nm diameter
Silicon Quantum corral of 48 iron atoms
15 DNA Atoms
Walter Riess 10-10 m 0.1 nm on copper surface positioned one
wri@zurich.ibm.com Office of Basic Energy Sciences
© 2012 Science, U.S. DOE
IBM Corporation
Office of
~2-1/2 nm diameter diameter 0.115 nm at a time with an STM tip Version 05-26-06, pmd

16. IBM Research - Zurich
Nanotechnology – Everywhere
Laser Etching
Regenerative
Scratch resistive
Medicine
Lacquer
Nano-Pore
Photovoltaics
DNA
Self-cleaning paints DNA Sequencing
and Textiles Filtration und purification
16 wri@zurich.ibm.com © 2012 IBM Corporation

17. IBM SYMPOSIUM
Worlds Smallest 3D Map
• Achievement of Rüschlikon Lab in April 2010
• World Image in 3D in 22x11 micrometers
• Created in 2 minutes, 23 seconds
• on polymer and molecular glas
• 1000 of these 3D images on one grain of salt
Potential future nano-transistor
- 50 nm thin
3D video - no leak
- much less power needed
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17 © 2003 IBM Corporation

18. New Nano-Technology Researchcenter
IBM Rüschlikon and ETH Zürich
 1000 m2 cleanroom facilities
 “Noise-free” laboratories
 $30 million in equipment
 Opened in May 2011
Binning Rohrer Nanotechnology Center
© 2012 IBM Corporation 18

19. IBM Research
IBM Jeopardy Challenge
• Jeopardy Quizshow in the US
• Capability to answer questions
in natural language
• 4 years research project
• Human contestants were the
two top Jeopardy winners
----
• 90 P570 systems
• DeepQA with 2880 processors
• 16 TB of memory
• No Internet connection allowed
• 200 mio pages scanned in
• Price money:
Winner: $1 mio, 2nd: $300K, 3rd: $200
Contestants give 50%, IBM 100% to charity
19 video © 2012 IBM Corporation
Potential Real Life Usage:

20. How Watson Works
 Unlike Internet search engines, which only point
users to documents that contain answers, Watson
delivers an actual answer.
 Watson is not connected to the internet - like a
human, it delivers its answers from the resource of
data in its "brain“.
 Watson uses the same buzzer used by the human
contestants. When the Jeopardy! host reads the
clue, Watson must "buzz in" in competition with the
humans.
 Watson calculates a list of possible answers, and
then selects the best one based on its level of
“confidence” that it is correct.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/20/magazine/20Computer-t.html, http://www.ibm.com/watson
© 2012 IBM Corporation
11:15

21. IBM Research
Some of the Jeopardy Questions
Bram Stoker
video
21 © 2012 IBM Corporation

22. The Practical Applications of Watson
"If we can teach a computer to play Jeopardy!, what
could it mean for science, finance, healthcare and
business? By drastically advancing the field of
automatic question answering, the Watson project's
ultimate success will be measured by what it means
for society."
Medicine: The computer could diagnose rare diseases
based on a particular set of symptoms. The computer could
hold every medical paper ever produced, and the steps of
every known medical procedure.
Enterprise: Knowledge Management and Business
Intelligence
Customer support (Helpdesk): After being programmed
with every possible customer care issue, the computer
could serve as a virtual call center, providing verbal
answers to customers in real time.
Instead of "Google it", it will be "ask Watson" in the future.
(Craig Rhinehart)
Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/20/magazine/20Computer-t.html
© 2012 IBM Corporation
11:15

23. Four Technologies that Will Change the World
Cognitive Computing
Compute+  “Synapse” devices
Natural
Language+
Analytics
Deep Q&A
BIG/Fast Data
 Exa / zettabytes
Computers  Milli / microseconds
 Unstructured
 Noisy
Data
Exascale
(Datacenter-in-a-box)
 Massive parallelism
 Flexible system
optimization
Workload
Optimized
Systems
Nano Systems
(Systems-on-a-chip)
 DNA Transistor
 Nano Medicine
Power7 chip
Nano 1 Trillion
Devices Devices
1 Billion
Transistors
© 2012 IBM Corporation
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24. From Nano Devices to Nano Systems
Cognitive Computing
Compute+  “Synapse” devices
Natural
Language+
Analytics
Deep Q&A
BIG/Fast Data
 Exa / zettabytes
Computers  Milli / microseconds
 Unstructured
 Noisy
Data
Exascale
(Datacenter-in-a-box)
 Massive parallelism
 Flexible system
optimization
Workload
Optimized
Systems
Nano Systems
(Systems-on-a-chip)
 DNA Transistor
Power7 chip  Nano Medicine
1Trillion
Nano
Devices Devices
1Billion
Transistors
© 2012 IBM Corporation
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25. Why IBM Invests in Nanotechnology:
Accelerating Advances in Information Technology
IE+12
Integrated
Nanotechnology
$1000 Buys: Computations per second
Circuit
IE+9
Discrete
Transistor
IE+6
Vacuum
Tube
IE+3 Electro-
Mechanical
Mechanical
IE+0
IE-3
IE-5
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Source: Kurzweil 1999 – Moravec 1998
25 © 2012 IBM Corporation

26. Medicine at the Nanoscale
DNA Transistor
 Fast, cost-effective method to use
genetic info in healthcare
 DNA strands pass through ‘nanopore’
 Electric sensor reads genetic
information
Anti-bacterial Nanoparticles
 Detects and destroys antibiotic-
resistant bacteria
 Fights infectious diseases
 Biodegradable
13 © 2012 IBM Corporation
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27. From Petascale to Exascale
Cognitive Computing
Compute+  “Synapse” devices
Natural
Language+
Analytics
Deep Q&A
BIG/Fast Data
 Exa / zettabytes
Computers  Milli / microseconds
 Unstructured
 Noisy
Data
Exascale
(Datacenter-in-a-box)
 Massive parallelism
 Flexible system
optimization
Workload
Optimized
Systems Nano Systems
(Systems-on-a-chip)
 DNA Transistor
 Nano Medicine
Power7 chip
Nano 1Trillion Devices
Devices
1Billion Transistors
© 2012 IBM Corporation
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28. Exascale Computing
A billion calculations in a billionth of a second
Overall Performance = 1000X
Performance / watt = 135X
Performance / $ = 1000X
1 PetaFlop Footprint = <2%
72 BG/P Racks
Referenced to one-petaflop system
CPU Silicon
Photonics
Phase
Change
Memory 3D
Software
The Next Ten Years
1 PetaFlop = 1/3 rack
2009 2019
28 15 © 2012 IBM Corporation

29. Natural Disaster Prediction and Response
Deep Thunder
 24- to 48-hour forecasts
 1 - 2 km resolution
 3 hours to 3 days lead time
 Weather data coupled with analytics
© 2012 IBM Corporation
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30. From Big Data to Big Analytics
Cognitive Computing
Compute+  “Synapse” devices
Natural
Language+
Analytics
BIG/Fast Data
Deep Q&A  Exa / zettabytes
Computers  Milli / microseconds
 Unstructured
 Noisy
Data
Exascale
(Datacenter-in-a-box)
 Massive parallelism
 Flexible system
optimization
Workload
Optimized
Systems
Nano Systems
(Systems-on-a-chip)
 DNA Transistor
 Nano Medicine
Power7 chip
Nano 1Trillion Devices
Devices
1Billion Transistors
© 2012 IBM Corporation
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31. Big Data – Very Big and Very Fast
 Merging real-time analytics with deep
analytics
 Meaning from text at record volumes and
speed
 Massive scale analytics with minimal code
Homeland Security
 Super fast indexing of thousands of facets 600k records per second
50 billion per day
 Optimized and integrated system 1-2 milliseconds per decision
320 terabytes for Deep Analytics
Telco Promotions
100k records per second,
6 billion per day
10 milliseconds per decision
270 terabytes for Deep Analytics
IBM DeepQA
100s of gigabytes for Deep Analytics
3 seconds per decision
31 © 2012 IBM Corporation

32. Smarter Traffic
250k GPS probes per second
630k segments per second
2 milliseconds per decision (4k vehicles)
© 2012 IBM Corporation
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33. From Programming to Systems that Learn
Compute+ Cognitive Computing
Natural  “Synapse” devices
Language+
Analytics
Deep Q&A BIG/Fast Data
 Exa / zettabytes
Computers  Milli / microseconds
 Unstructured
 Noisy
Data
Exascale
(Datacenter-in-a-box)
 Massive parallelism
 Flexible system
optimization
Workload
Optimized
Systems
Nano Systems
(Systems-on-a-chip)
 DNA Transistor
 Nano Medicine
Power7 chip
Nano 1Trillion Devices
Devices
1Billion Transistors
© 2012 IBM Corporation
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34. Watson – a Roadmap
Research / Demo Commercialization Future Technologies
Voice & Image Recognition
Won Jeopardy! Query & Dialogue
2007 – 2011 2011 – 2012 2012 – 2015
© 2012 IBM Corporation
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35. IBM Research
IBM gets DARPA cognitive computing contract
• Simulate the brain's sensation, action, interaction, perception and cognition abilities
• Supercomputing and nano-technology enable creation of simulated synapses
• SyNAPSE project is only the first phase
Read more:
http://www.ibm.com/smarterplanet/us/en/business_analytics/article/cognitive_computing.html
http://www.kurzweilai.net
http://venturebeat.com/2011/08/17/ibm-cognitive-computing-chips/
• Simulation of neurons with Optogenetics
• Designer viruses and optical signals may take over functions in wound/stroke patients
• Mind-controlled prosthetic limbs
35 © 2012 IBM Corporation

36. Cognitive Computing
First chips and architecture for Learning Systems
 Spatial navigation
 Machine vision
 Pattern recognition
 Associative memory
 45 nanometer  262k programmable synapses
 256 neurons  65k learning synapses
© 2012 IBM Corporation
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37. Cognitive Computing
Neuroscience
Complexity
Supercomputing
Nanoelectronics
Time
© 2012 IBM Corporation
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38. IBM SYMPOSIUM
Innovations for the Next Five Years
 ‘Thin film’ solarcells on sidewalks, windows, paintings
 Genetic map about health risks (based on DNA)
 Intelligent co-driver
• Improved navigation (augmented reality), distancecontrol, pay-as you drive
 Cell phone extension of Internet
• Camera object description
• Shop information
• Remote control of home equipment
• ‘Spoken Web’
 mmWave wireless communication
 Multilingual phone communication
 3D Internet
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38 Template Documentation 06/20/12 © 2003 IBM Corporation

39. IBM Systems and Technology Group
Supercomputing Roadmap
System
64 Racks, 64x32x32
100000 Node Card
Rack
32 Node Cards
32 Chips 4x4x2)
Compute 16 compute,
Card 0-2 IO cards
2 chips, 180/360 TF/s
Chip
2
processors
10000 1x2x1
2.8/5.6 TF/s
32 TB
90/180 GF/s 512 GB IBM
5.6/11.2 GF/s 16 GB BlueGene/P
Teraflops
2.8/5.6 GF/s 1.0 GB
1000 4MB
I
IBM BlueGene/L®
100 IBM
Deep
Blue®
10
US Dept. Of Energy ASCI
1
1995 2000 2005 2010 2020
Source: ASCI Roadmap www.llnl.gov/asci,
IBM, Supercomputer Conf., 2004
Brain ops/sec: Kurzweil 1999, The Age of Spiritual Machines
Moravec 1998, www.transhumanist.com/volume1/moravec.htm
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39 © 2012 IBM Corporation

40. Ray Kurzweil Predictions
 Most of the predictions are based on exponential
growth of technology (doubles approx. every year)
 10 year iteration: 1000x, 20 year iteration: 1 mio fold
 Cell phones in comparison to MIT computer (in 1965) are today
 1000 times more processing power
 1 mio times smaller
 1 mio times cheaper
 1 bio times increase in price/performance
 Compute power that was 40 years ago in a building, is currently
in a cell phone, will be in 25 years at the size of a red blood cell
40

41. Emerging nanotechnology will accelerate progress of
cost of solar panels and storage – fuel cells
 Tipping point (cost per watt
less than oil and coal)
expected within 5 years
 Progress on thermo-solar
 Doubling time for watts from
solar < 2 years
 We are less than 10 doublings
from meeting 100% of the
world’s energy needs
41

42. 2030: An intimate merger
 $1,000 of computation = 1,000
times the human brain
 Reverse engineering of the
human brain completed
 Computers pass the Turing test
 Nonbiological intelligence
combines
 the subtlety and pattern
recognition strength of human
intelligence, with
 the speed, memory, and
knowledge sharing of machine
intelligence
 Nonbiological intelligence will
continue to grow exponentially
whereas biological intelligence is
effectively fixed
42

43. Ray Kurzweil Predictions (cont.)
 2020: Computers have same processing power as humans.
 2030: Brain is reverse engineered.
 Computers can communicate as humans and pass Turing test.
 Copy of the brain/knowledge can be stored.
 2040: Virtual reality will become more exciting than reality.
 Human beings will be 1 mio times more capable.
For more information visit: http://www.kurzweilai.net
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