6. Back to Contents Research & Development Unit Sri Lanka - March Tourist Arrivals 53.7% Sri Lanka's March 2010 tourist arrivals 53.7 % to 52,352 from a year earlier . Cont… Arrivals by Top 5 Regions Region % Increase Western Europe 21,797 ▲ 48.6 South Asia 12,801 ▲ 51.7 East Asia 5,438 ▲ 47.5 Eastern Europe 3,421 ▲ 21.8 North America 3,417 ▲ 95.0 Arrivals by Top 5 Countries Country % Increase India 8,607 ▲ 72.1 % UK 8,559 ▲ 30.1 % Germany 5,305 ▲ 96.5 % Maldives 3,160 ▲ 26.3 % France 2,872 ▲ 63.1 %
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9. Back to Contents Research & Development Unit External Sector Performance – January 2010 USD Mn Imports, Exports & Trade Balance 2005-2009 Category January 2009 US$ mn January 2010 US$ mn Change (%) Exports 491.1 472.0 -3.9 Agricultural 101.0 142.5 41.1 Industrial 385.1 319.9 -16.9 Mineral 5.1 9.6 88.3 Imports 682.6 1,160.9 70.1 Consumer Goods 154.0 233.5 51.6 Intermediate Goods 333.8 625.1 87.3 Investment Goods 183.3 219.0 19.5 Balance of Trade -191.5 -688.9 -259.8 Workers’ Remittances 258.0 289.8 12.3
19. Back to Contents Research & Development Unit Branch Openings 173 @ Kalmunnai 174 @ Manipay 175 @ Majestic City (Holiday Banking Centre) 133 @ Kundasale 134 @ Kollupitiya 135 @ Gangodawila 39 Batticaloa (365 day Banking Centre) 136 @ Peliyagoda 137 @ Hanwella Commercial Bank Sampath Bank Pan Asia Bank 37 @ Jaffna Nations Trust Bank
23. ANALYSIS & FORECAST - Medium Term Macroeconomic Framework Back to Contents Cont… Research & Development Unit Indicators Projections Real Sector Units 2008(b) 2009 (c) 2010 2011 2012 2013 GDP at Market Prices Rs. bn 4.411 4,825 5,445 6,202 7,064 8.009 Real GDP Growth % 6.0 3.5 6.5 7.5 8.0 8.0 Inflation-GDP Deflator % 16.3 5.7 6.0 6.0 5.5 5.0 Total Investment %of GDP 27.6 24.5 27.8 29.5 32.0 33.0 Domestic Savings %of GDP 13.9 18.0 18.6 20.4 23.0 24.2 National Savings %of GDP 17.8 23.9 24.2 26.3 29.2 30.4 External Sector Trade Gap US$ mn -5,981 -3,122 -4,874 -5,588 -6,307 -7,042 Exports US$ mn 8,111 7,085 8,094 9,067 10,197 11,528 Imports US$ mn 14,091 10,207 12,968 14,655 16,504 18,571 Services (net) US$ mn 401 391 517 695 837 996 Current Account Balance US$ mn -3886 -214 -1,642 -1,638 -1,642 -1,766 Current Account Balance % of GDP -9.5 -0.5 -3.5 -3.1 -2.7 -2.6 Overall Balance (d) US$ mn -1,385 2,725 700 967 902 970 External Official Reserves (Months of Imports) (d/e/f) Months 1.4 6.0 5.3 5.5 5.5 5.0 Debt Service Ratio (g) % 15.1 19.0 14.5 15.3 19.8 18.5
24. ANALYSIS & FORECAST - Medium Term Macroeconomic Framework (a) Based on the information available by mid March 2010. (b) Revised (c) Provisional (d) Values for 2008 were revised due to a change in the classifi cation of external assets. (e) Excluding receipts of Asian Clearing Union. (f ) External offi cial reserves from 2010 onwards include the expected proceeds from the IMF Stand-by Arrangement facility 2009. (g) Total debt service payments as a percentage of earnings from export of goods and services. (h) Year-on-year growth in end year values. Source: CBSL Annual Report - 2009 Back to Contents Research & Development Unit Indicators Projections Fiscal Sector Units 2008(b) 2009 (c) 2010 2011 2012 2013 Revenue & Grants % of GDP 15.6 15.1 15.4 16.6 17.5 17.6 Expenditure & Net Lending % of GDP 22.6 24.9 23.0 23.1 22.5 22.4 Current Account Balance % of GDP -2.0 -3.6 -1.9 0.4 1.0 1.2 Overall Budget Deficit % of GDP -7.0 -9.8 -7.5 -6.5 -5.0 -4.8 Domestic Financing % of GDP 7.1 5.0 5.1 3.5 3.4 3.5 Financial Sector (h) Reserve Money Growth % 1.5 13.1 13.5 14.0 13.9 13.4 Broad Money Growth (M2b) % 8.5 18.6 13.5 14.1 14.0 13.5 Narrow Money Growth (M1) % 4.0 21.4 7.5 8.1 8.0 8.0 Growth in Credit to Private Sector % 7.0 -5.7 13.2 15.1 17.3 17.2 Growth in Credit to Public Sector % 48.8 13.1 7.4 5.1 0.6 -1.5
25. The information contained in this presentation has been drawn from sources that we believe to be reliable. However, while we have taken reasonable care to maintain accuracy/completeness of the information, it should be noted that Commercial Bank of Ceylon PLC and/or its employees should not be held responsible, for providing the information or for losses or damages, financial or otherwise, suffered in consequence of using such information for whatever purpose. The views expressed in Economic Capsule are not necessarily those of the Management of Commercial Bank of Ceylon PLC “ The emergence of the *BRICs as aid donors is as important for poor countries as was the fall of the Berlin Wall for Eastern Europe”. Deborah Brautigam * In economics, BRIC (typically rendered as "the BRICs" or "the BRIC countries") is a grouping acronym that refers to the related economies of Brazil, Russia, India, and China. Back to Contents