Presented at the Basin Focal Project Review meeting in Cali, Colombia from 1-5 Feb, 2008

1. IGB- Basin Focal Project
Project Leader: Peter McCornick

2. Outline
1. Brief overview of IGB
2. What we know on Poverty, Water availability and
Access and Water productivity in IGB?
3. What IGB BFP work packages will do?
Note: Details presented here may change following the
inception workshop, scheduled for March 18-19th in
Kathmandu

3. IGB profile
• Basin Area: 225 million-ha
• Population (2001): 747 million
• Percentage rural population (2001)
– India: 75
– Pakistan: 68
– Bangladesh: 80
– Nepal: 86
• Percentage of population below
poverty line (2000) : 30.5%
High Potential • Net cropped area: 114 mha.
Low Prod cti it
Lo Productivity • Water
W t use in agriculture:
i i lt 91.4%
91 4%

4. SOME NUTS AND BOLTS
• Very large basins, so we have to be realistic
• Data, or lack thereof, especially hydrology data in the
p y y gy
Ganges, presents a challenge
• Broad brush overview in the first “phase” and then
p
focus down to two or three “sub-basins” -- to be
finalized at inception meeting.
p g

5. WORK PACKAGES
WP1 – Water Poverty Analysis
WP2 – Analysis of Water Availability and Access
WP3 – Analysis of Agricultural Water Productivity
WP4 – Institutional Analysis
WP5 – Intervention Analysis
WP6 – Development & Application of the Knowledge
Base

6. INTERLINKAGES & INTEGRATION
OF WORKPACKAGES
Basin scale Production Hydrology
Poverty Systems
Crops
Income Livestock
Livelihood Fish Water
AgroForestry Accounting
Geographical Geographical Spatially disaggregated
disaggregation disaggregation water balance
Institutional (Water &)
Water Productivity
Analysis Poverty Analysis
Factors of Land and
Water Productivity,
and P
d Poverty
t
Potential
Interventions

7. What we know on IGB
WP 1: Water Poverty Analysis
• National estimates are available
• Regional estimates are available using HCES or HLSS surveys
– India: State/regions
– Pakistan: Provinces/Districts
– Bangladesh:
Bangladesh D str cts
Districts
– Nepal: Regions
• Small area estimates are available for some countries
• Compatibility of data/estimates are issues to address

8. Sub-national rural poverty in India
State level headcount ratio (of India %)
1983-1984 1993-1994
River basin
boundaries
Headcount ratio (%)
0-5
5 - 10
10 - 15
15 - 20
20 - 25
25 - 30
30 - 35
35 - 40
40 - 45
2005 2006
2005-2006 45 - 50
1999-2000
50 - 55
55 - 70
• Regional to district
level estimates are
available
• District level
accuracy ???

9. Questions?
1. Where are the poor?
2. What is the contribution from agriculture (or non-agriculture)
economic activities to poverty alleviation?
3. What i ti l linkages of A il bilit A
3 Wh t is extent of spatial li k
t t f f Availability, Access and
d
Quality of Water in conjunction with other assets (Land,
wealth, skills, demography and access to infrastructure) for
productive agriculture or non-agriculture economic activities and
hence poverty alleviation?
4.
4 What are the determinants of decreasing poverty in IGB?
5. What were the patterns of agrarian transformation, linkages
p g , g
with gender equality and women empowerment, and linkages with
poverty alleviation?

10. IGB BFP – Work package 1 work plan
WP 1: Water Poverty Analysis 2008 2009 Primary
responsibility/
Partners
1.1. Sub national poverty maps of IGB Nov Upali,
Samad, Alan,
Samad Alan
Hakeem, Dhurba,
ICAR
1.2. Spatial linkages of Water, Land
p g , Oct Upali,
p ,
and agriculture and incidence of Samad, Alan,
poverty and determinants of Hakeem, Dhurba,
poverty alleviation in IGB ICAR
1.3 Agrarian transformation, gender Oct Samad,
equality and empowerment and poverty
q y p p y ICAR, Hakeem
alleviation in IGB

11. What we know on IGB
WP2: Analysis of Water Availability and Access
IGB countries TRWR Per capita water resources (m3/person)
3
(km ) 1990 2000 2025 2050
India 1985 2352 1971 1429 1254
Pakistan 223 2008 1561 892 639
Bangladesh 105 960 761 504 412
Nepal 210 11121 8934 5556 4137
IGB basins
b i TRWR P capita water resources (m3/
Per it t ( /person)
)
3
(km ) 1990 2000 2025 2050
Indus- India 97 2487 2109 1590 1732
Indus- Pakistan 190 1713 1332 761 545
Ganga - India 663 1831 1490 969 773

12. Access to water:
Extent of irrigated and rainfed areas
Net irrigated area - % of net sown area
• Substantial part of
IGB is irrigated
• District level data
are available
River basin boundaries
State boundaries
NIA - % of NSA
0 - 10
10 - 25
25 - 40
40 - 55
55 - 75
75 - 100

13. Access to water:
Sources of irrigation supply
Net canal irrigated area - % of Net irrigated area Net groundwater irrigated area - % of Net irrigated area
River basin boundaries Riber basin boundaries
Net surface irrigated area - Net groundwater irrigated
% of NIA area - % of NIA
f
0 - 10 0 - 10
10 - 25 10 - 25
25 - 50 25 - 50
50 - 75 50 - 75
75 - 100 75 - 100

14. Water Use
Water withdrawals (km3)
11[4%] 2 2,
2 2% Irrigation -
17 [6%] [2%] Surface
D&I -
125 Surface
[44%] 37
[38%] Irrigation -
131 57 Groundwater
[46%] [58%]
D&I
Groundwater
Ganga basin
g Indus basin
• Canal and Groundwater withdrawal data for Pakistan-Indus are
available

15. Water Accounting of
Indus and Ganga basins
Water Availability in the Ganga Basin
Not
Not-
Utilizable
250 km3
[36%]
Utilizable -
275 km3 422 km3 Over Surface
[39%] [61%] lap
34 km3
Utilizable -
3
172 km Groundwater
[25%]
Water accounting in Ganga basin
Unutilized
PUWR
Process
26%
248 km 3 evaporation
174 km 3
[60%]
[41%] Non-process
5% evaporation
9%
Unutilized
return flows

16. IGB BFP – Work package 2 work plan
WP 2: Water Availability and 2008 2009 Primary
responsibility/
access analysis
l i
Partners
2.1 Water
2 1 W t accounting of IGB basins (in
ti f b i (i Oct
O t Luna
L n
all three countries) Bharat, ICAR
2.2. Details water balances for few sub- Oct Luna
basins Bharat, ICAR
Water availability vs. demand for current
water use will be compared with the past
as well as future water use scenarios

17. What we know about WP 3in IGB
Water productivity of grains
(kg/ m3 of consumptive water use)
• Time series data of
irrigation/rainfed cropping
patterns area available
• Can estimate water
productivity variation of
cereal/ grain crops over
time
State boundaries
River basin boundaries
Water productivity (kg/m3)
0.001 - 0.15
0.15 - 0.35
0.35 - 0.5
0.5 - 0.65
0.65 - 0.9
0.9 - 1.281

18. What we know about WP 3in IGB?
Contribution of yield and CWU to water productivity
Irrigated yield versus consumptive water use of
grains crops at the district level
7.0
6.0
5.0
ield (ton/ha)
4.0
3.0
Yi
2.0
1.0
0.0
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
Consumptive water use (mm)

19. IGB BFP – Work package 3 work plan
WP 3: Water Productivity analysis 2008 2009 Primary
responsibility/
Partners
P t
3.1. Spatial variations agriculture Nov Mobin/Bharat
water productivity for Indus and Alan, Hakim, ICIAR,
Ganga Basin
G B i Dhruba
(use both secondary and RS data)
3.2. Assess spatial linkages with Nov Mobin/Bharat
agriculture input, socio-economic
and environmental factors and
poverty
3.3 Sub basin studies of water Nov Bharat
p
productivity assessment
y m ICAR, Hakim, Alan
, ,

20. Expected products of WP 4:
WP 4: Institutional Analysis
1. Present an overview of water Institutions and
policies in the IGB/countries
– Literature synthesis of / Expert interviews etc.
2. Three sub-basin/local studies to assess how pro-
poor institutional and policy instruments impacted
on:
• productivity growth
• poverty alleviation
• Environment
E

21. WP 4 – Case studies
Select 2-3 for detail studies:
1.
1 Pro-poor
Pro poor Agriculture Water Management (AWM) strategies
• Objective: Try to address causality issues of water and
poverty that WP 1 cannot address, and suggest water
management strategies that can help
g g p
2. Energy irrigation nexus
• Study policy/institutional instruments for addressing issues
in
i energy crisis (
i i (use) i agriculture. E t
) in i lt Extension t what i
i to h t is
known from Tushaar/Aditi studies
3.
3 Institutional requirements for emerging culture fisheries in IGB
4. Under what conditions can international treaties between India
and Nepal, Bangladesh can work and benefit both sides

22. IGB BFP – Work package 4 work plan
WP 4: Water Institutions analysis 2008 2009 Primary
responsibility/
Partners
3.1. Overview of basin institutions Nov Tushaar
Aditi, Alan Hakim
Aditi Alan, Hakim,
3.2. Case study results Nov Tushaar
Aditi, Elena, Alan,
Hakim

23. Expected products in WP 5:
WP 5: Intervention Analysis
1.
1 Overview of interventions in productivity improvements and poverty
alleviation
• Physical (infrastructure development), technological, extension, capacity
building,
building agronomical (practices quality of inputs)
(practices,
• Study different aspects of interventions
• Nature, level (farm, watershed, system), location (agro-climatic zone), procedures of
implementation, impacts
• Infrastructure development interventions
2. Impact assessment of few interventions using rapid appraisals
• Impacts (
I (cost/benefits?)
/b fi ?)
• Adaptability in other locations
• Scaling up issues

24. IGB BFP – Work package 5 work plan
WP 5: Intervention analysis 2008 2009 Primary
responsibility/
Partners
5.1. Overview of interventions Nov TBD (ICAR),
Bharat, Hakeem,
Alan, Hakim,
Dhruba
5.2. Impact assessment of interventions Nov TBD (ICAR),
Bharat, Hakeem
Bharat Hakeem,
Alan, Hakim,
Dhruba

25. Expected products in WP 6:
Development of knowledge base
1. Integration of data into IDIS
• Adding/improving d t and results t a IGB BFP web page
Addi /i i data d lt to b
in terms of work packages
2. Workshops
• Project dissemination workshop (3)
j p

26. IGB BFP – Work package 6 work plan
WP 6: Knowledge base 2008 2009 Primary
responsibility/
Partners
6.1. IDIS web page for IGB BFP xxxx xxxx Bharat/Matin (IDIS)
6.2. Inception workshop Mar Peter
6.3.
6 3 First year workshop Dec
6.4. Second year mid term workshop Jul
6.5. Final workshop Dec

27. KEY OUTPUTS FROM
THE IGB-BFP
1. Inception Report
2.
2 Spatial variation of poverty in IGB
3. Water, land & poverty linkages in IGB
4. Water accounting of the IGB
g
5. Water balance for three sub-basins
6. Assessment of Agricultural Water Productivity
(AWP)
7. Determination of AWP in three sub-sub-basins
8. Overview of institutions within the IGB
9. Institutions within sub-basins
10. Overview of AWM interventions in the IGB
11.
11 Recommendation on priority interventions
12. Synthesis Report for the IGB BFP

28. IGB BFP
To whom are we producing IGB BFP results?
• CPWF, CGIAR
• Our Partners
– Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR)/
– PCAR/BCAR/NCAR
• Policy makers at National and State/Provincial levels
• System managers
• NGO’s/ Civil Society
• N i
National/International researchers
l/I i l h

29. Thank you

30. Poverty trends
India Pakistan
60
40
50
Headcount ratio (%)
atio (%)
Rural
40 30
Rural Total
Headcount ra
30
Total 20 Urban
20
Urban
10 10
0
0
1973- 1983 1993- 1999- 2004-
1974 1994 2000 2005 FY93 FY94 FY97 FY99
Source: ADB 2004 based on Planning Commission estimates Source: ADB 2002, based on FBS estimates
Nepal Bangladesh
50
60
Rural
40
Head count ratio (%)
50
Rural Total
30 40
Total Urban
30
20
20
10
Urban
U b 10
0 0
1995-1996 2003-2004 1883/84 1988/89 1991/92 1995/96 2000
Source: National Planning Commission Secretariate Source: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics 2002

31. Sun-national Poverty – Pakistan
Provinces 1995-1996 2003-2004 Change
Punjab 25.2 33.0 31
Northern Punjab 10.3 24.4 137
Central Punjab 27.5 31.0 13
Southern Punjab 31.6 38.9 23
Sindh 24.1 26.6 10
NWFP 35.5 42.6 20
Balochistan 28.6 22.8 -20
Source: ADB 2002 based on Federal Bureau of Statistics 2001

32. Sub-national Poverty in Nepal
1995-1996 2003-2004 Change
NLSS regions
Katmandu 4.3 3.3 -23
Other urban 31.6 13.0 -59
Rural Western Hills 55.0 37.4 -32
Rural Eastern Hills 36.1 42.9 19
Rural Western Terai 46.1 38.1 -17
Rural EasternTerai 37.2 24.9 -33
Ecological regions
Mountains 57.0 32.6 -33
Hills 40.7 34.5 -35
Terai 40.3 27.6 -32

33. Sub-national Poverty in Bangladesh