SlideShare une entreprise Scribd logo
1  sur  28
Télécharger pour lire hors ligne
SYNERGIES BETWEEN MITIGATION AND
  ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE:
     EXPERIENCE FROM KENYA
                 Glwadys Aymone Gbetibouo
                          University of Pretoria

         on behalf of Barrack Ok oba, Carla Roncoli,
             Claudia Ringler, and M ario Herrero
                                   Copenhagen, COP 15
                                    December 11, 2009



INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
OUTLINE

   1. Impact of climate change on Kenya
   2. Synergies between adaptation and
      mitigation
   3. Farmer perceptions of adaptation and
      mitigation - Preliminary results
   4. Conclusions




INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
IMPACT OF CLIMATE
                CHANGE ON KENYA




INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
WHY CLIMATE MATTERS FOR KENYA
   4.0                                                10.0
                                DROUGHT INDEX
   3.0                          GDP GROWTH             8.0
   2.0
                                                       6.0
   1.0

   0.0                                                 4.0
         1975
         1976
         1977
         1978
         1979
         1980
         1981
         1982
         1983
         1984
         1985
         1986
         1987
         1988
         1989
         1990
         1991
         1992
         1993
         1994
         1995
  -1.0
                                                       2.0
  -2.0
                                                       0.0
  -3.0

  -4.0                                                -2.0



INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE    Source: IFPRI
KENYA: TEMPERATURE ON THE RISE

                                                     Mostly:
                                                     • in the cold
                                                       season

                                                     • for min
                                                       night temps




INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE   Source: Ogutu et al. (2007)
KENYA: CHANGE IN PRECIPITATION
          Small increase expected in Dec-Jan




INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE   Source: IPCC (2007), Herrero (2009)
IMPACT OF CC ON MAIZE YIELDS
           Kenya
                   2000-2050
               Green= increase
               in yields
               Brown=
               decrease in yields




                                    Source: Jones
                                    and Thornton
                                    (2003)
IMPACT OF CC ON MAIZE YIELDS
                                       Kenya

                                      SSA       Kenya
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
   0
          2000       2050 no CC      2050           2050       2050       2050
                                   NCAR369        CSIRO532   CSIRO369   Hadley369


 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE                     Source: IFPRI
IMPACT OF CC ON CHILD MALNUTRITION (%)
                            Projected to 2025
    20
    18
    16
    14
    12
    10
     8
     6
     4
     2
     0
             2000        2025 no CC     2025 CSIRO   2025 NCAR   2025 Hadley
                                            369         369          369
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE                     Source: IFPRI
SYNERGIES BETWEEN
            ADAPTATION AND
              MITIGATION



INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
SYNERGIES & TRADEOFFS




                 Profitability                 Adaptation



                                Mitigation


INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
MITIGATION:
              POTENTIAL IN AGRICULTURE
Estimated total technical and economic mitigation potential (0-20$/ton) on
all agricultural land, incl. all management practices and all GHG

                                           Mitigation Potential by 2030
               Total Agric.
                  Land                                                   Economic at
                                  Technical          Technical
                 (M ha)        (t CO2e/ha/yr)      (Mt CO2e / yr)      0-20$/ton CO2eq
                                                                        (Mt CO2e / yr)
East Africa        364              1.10                400                   109
Central
                   177              1.02                180                   49
Africa
North Africa        113             0.80                 90                   25
South Africa       138              0.58                 80                   22
West Africa        302              0.73                220                   60
Total              1093             0.89                970               265 (27%)
• Largest potential for agricultural CF projects in East Africa (41%)

 Note: Estimates calculated from data provided by Smith et al (2008) (for SRES scenario B1)
MITIGATION:
                  POTENTIAL IN AGRICULTURE
                    Smallholder
Commodity            Livestock-     Maize      Biofuels       Coffee           Tea        Sugar
                   Maize Systems
Area available                                Semi-arid:
                         3            1.6                       0.15           0.15        0.14
in ha (million)                                  0.9

                   SALM:                                    1) Shade                   1) No/ burning
                                                            trees,           Inter-    of residues
                   Agronomy                   Jatropha                       croppin
                                                            multiple                   2) Mulching
GHG mitigation     Nutrient mgmt    Residue   1) Fuel-                       g no
                                                            cropping                   systems
activities         Water mgmt       mgmt.     switch                         option
                                                            2) Mulching                3) Fertilizer
                   Agroforestry               2) AR                          in
                                                            3) Fertilizer    Kenya     related
                   Set aside land                           use eff                    emissions
Existing
extension                -             -          -              +             ++            +
service
Tech. GHG                                       1) 1-12
mitigation                                     2) 2.5-5.0
                       2-5            0.5                      3–8             -----   7.8 in 6 years
potential in t                                    High
CO2e/ha/y.                                    bandwidth
Economic mit.
                        ++            ?           ?              ++             0            +
potential

                                                                            Source: Timm Tennigkeit
SYNERGIES BETWEEN
      ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION
 Positive correlation between soil carbon and crop
  yield  Agricultural practices that improve soil
  fertility and enhance carbon sequestration also
  improve yield
 Increased fertilizer application, ideally combining
  inorganic with organic soil fertility types
 Increased and more efficient agricultural water
  management (reduces CO2 from fuel/electricity,
  conserves land)
 Agricultural R&D, advisory services, and
  information systems support both adaptation and
  mitigation

                                                  Page 14
TRADEOFFS BETWEEN
     ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION

 Tradeoff between crop residues and animal
  feeds in parts of Kenya
 Lack of application of labor-intensive soil &
  water fertility management practices on
  marginal soils (too costly/risky)
 Increased fertilizer application (in conjunction
  with soil fertility management) reduces soil
  mining and supports mitigation and
  adaptation, over-fertilization increases GHG
FARMER PERCEPTIONS OF
      ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Farmers Are Aware Of The Link Between
    Agriculture And Climate Change




                         Source: KARI-IFPRI survey, n=351
“Which Agricultural Practices Can Help
     Reduce Climate Change?”

      14                                                61%
      12
      10
      8
(%)




      6
      4
      2
      0




             Source: KARI-IFPRI survey, n=351; multiple responses possible
“What Have You Done In Response To
          Perceived Climate Change?”
      60

      50

      40
(%)




      30

      20

      10

       0




                  Source: KARI-IFPRI survey, n=351, multiple responses possible
“What Would You Like To Do In Response To
       Perceived Climate Change?”
  60

  50

  40
(%)




  30

  20

  10

      0




               Source: KARI-IFPRI survey, n=351, multiple responses possible
“Why Are You Not Implementing Desired
            Adaptations?”

No access to money
           No water
No access to inputs
  No access to land
Lack of information
  Shortage of labor
 No access to credit
         No market
Pests and diseases

                       0   20           40                 60
                                (%)

                                      Source: KARI-IFPRI survey, n=351
“Which Developments Do You Need Most
             Urgently?”
      60
      50
      40
(%)




      30
      20
      10
       0




Only responses > 20% included

                        Source: KARI-IFPRI survey, n=351, multiple responses possible
“Which Solutions are Most Effective and
      Desirable to Deal with CC Impacts? ?”
                                     High Potential Low Potential

                                     Nyeri   Syaya    Mbere     Njoro    Garissa
Irrigation technology/water
infrastructure                           1               1        3         2
Farmer organizations                     2
Training, capacity building                    4                  1         4
Education                                                                   1
Credit/capital                           3     1         2        2
Seed/seedlings provision                       2
Mechanization of agriculture                   3
Corruption eradication                   4               3
Markets, market controls                                 4
Natural forest restoration                                        4
Moving from pastoralism to
farming                                                                     3

             Ranking       1   2 3   4
                                              Source: focus groups, KARI-UGA, n=69 men
“What are the causes of climate change?”

                      Deforestation

                          Pollution

                    Land clearning

         Cutting (indigenous) trees

          Lack of soil conservation

       Overuse of chemical inputs

                       Overgrazing

Planting exotic, inappropriate trees

            God's will, punishment

           Farming in sacred sites

   Extracting sand from river beds

                    Loss of habitat

                                       0   1   2      3         4      5       6       7         8
                                                   Number of mentions (N=32)



                                                          Source: focus groups, KARI-UGA, n=69
CONCLUSIONS

INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
CONCLUSIONS
 Mitigation to climate change may yield substantial
  benefits for smallholder farmers in Kenya (US$2.2
  billion in East Africa) that can be used to support
  adaptation and development efforts

 Given the low price of carbon offsets (US$5-
  20/ha) mitigation activities alone do not yield
  sufficient benefits: the latter need to be
  complemented by co-benefits from adaptation and
  increased productivity/profitability

 Therefore it is essential to focus on activities that
  advance all three areas: profitability, adaptation,
  and mitigation
CONCLUSIONS
 Changing crop varieties/types and planting dates
  are among the most common adaptive strategies at
  the farm level

 The main constraint to implementing other
  adaptions is lack of access to capital and credit
  (ex.: irrigation is widely desired but expensive to
  establish and operate)

 Some of the priorities for development identified
  by farmers (irrigation, extension, capacity building,
  etc.) will support the synergies of mitigation and
  adaptation to climate change
CONCLUSIONS
 Farmers are aware of the connection between
  agriculture and climate change and of the benefits
  of planting trees to mitigate climate change

 There is less awareness about the mitigation
  potential for soil and water conservation and
  integrated soil fertility management and their
  potential synergies with adaptation

Contenu connexe

Tendances

Enteric methane production from cattle fed on three tropical grasses in East ...
Enteric methane production from cattle fed on three tropical grasses in East ...Enteric methane production from cattle fed on three tropical grasses in East ...
Enteric methane production from cattle fed on three tropical grasses in East ...ILRI
 
Quantifying greenhouse gas emissions attributable to smallholder livestock sy...
Quantifying greenhouse gas emissions attributable to smallholder livestock sy...Quantifying greenhouse gas emissions attributable to smallholder livestock sy...
Quantifying greenhouse gas emissions attributable to smallholder livestock sy...ILRI
 
Integration with livestock
Integration with livestockIntegration with livestock
Integration with livestockFAO
 
Organic Agriculture Worldwide 2017:Current Statistics
Organic Agriculture Worldwide 2017:Current StatisticsOrganic Agriculture Worldwide 2017:Current Statistics
Organic Agriculture Worldwide 2017:Current StatisticsFrancois Stepman
 
Greenhouse gas emissions and fertiliser quality from cattle manure Heaps in K...
Greenhouse gas emissions and fertiliser quality from cattle manure Heaps in K...Greenhouse gas emissions and fertiliser quality from cattle manure Heaps in K...
Greenhouse gas emissions and fertiliser quality from cattle manure Heaps in K...ILRI
 
How does animal welfare and health impact food loss?
How does animal welfare and health impact food loss?How does animal welfare and health impact food loss?
How does animal welfare and health impact food loss?ILRI
 
Trends and Determinants of Cereal Productivity: Econometric ANalysis of Natio...
Trends and Determinants of Cereal Productivity: Econometric ANalysis of Natio...Trends and Determinants of Cereal Productivity: Econometric ANalysis of Natio...
Trends and Determinants of Cereal Productivity: Econometric ANalysis of Natio...essp2
 
Young people as esential asset for agricultural sovereignty practical agri...
Young people as esential asset for agricultural sovereignty    practical agri...Young people as esential asset for agricultural sovereignty    practical agri...
Young people as esential asset for agricultural sovereignty practical agri...AldonSinaga
 
Agro-Buzz | GM crops:The True Picture
Agro-Buzz | GM crops:The True PictureAgro-Buzz | GM crops:The True Picture
Agro-Buzz | GM crops:The True PictureGodrejAgrovet
 
30th october ,2015 daily global regional local rice e newsletter by riceplus ...
30th october ,2015 daily global regional local rice e newsletter by riceplus ...30th october ,2015 daily global regional local rice e newsletter by riceplus ...
30th october ,2015 daily global regional local rice e newsletter by riceplus ...Riceplus Magazine
 

Tendances (20)

Enteric methane production from cattle fed on three tropical grasses in East ...
Enteric methane production from cattle fed on three tropical grasses in East ...Enteric methane production from cattle fed on three tropical grasses in East ...
Enteric methane production from cattle fed on three tropical grasses in East ...
 
Quantifying greenhouse gas emissions attributable to smallholder livestock sy...
Quantifying greenhouse gas emissions attributable to smallholder livestock sy...Quantifying greenhouse gas emissions attributable to smallholder livestock sy...
Quantifying greenhouse gas emissions attributable to smallholder livestock sy...
 
Integration with livestock
Integration with livestockIntegration with livestock
Integration with livestock
 
Organic Agriculture Worldwide 2017:Current Statistics
Organic Agriculture Worldwide 2017:Current StatisticsOrganic Agriculture Worldwide 2017:Current Statistics
Organic Agriculture Worldwide 2017:Current Statistics
 
Greenhouse gas emissions and fertiliser quality from cattle manure Heaps in K...
Greenhouse gas emissions and fertiliser quality from cattle manure Heaps in K...Greenhouse gas emissions and fertiliser quality from cattle manure Heaps in K...
Greenhouse gas emissions and fertiliser quality from cattle manure Heaps in K...
 
How does animal welfare and health impact food loss?
How does animal welfare and health impact food loss?How does animal welfare and health impact food loss?
How does animal welfare and health impact food loss?
 
2 akin olagunju does crop diversification influenc e food and nutrition secur...
2 akin olagunju does crop diversification influenc e food and nutrition secur...2 akin olagunju does crop diversification influenc e food and nutrition secur...
2 akin olagunju does crop diversification influenc e food and nutrition secur...
 
Trends and Determinants of Cereal Productivity: Econometric ANalysis of Natio...
Trends and Determinants of Cereal Productivity: Econometric ANalysis of Natio...Trends and Determinants of Cereal Productivity: Econometric ANalysis of Natio...
Trends and Determinants of Cereal Productivity: Econometric ANalysis of Natio...
 
Young people as esential asset for agricultural sovereignty practical agri...
Young people as esential asset for agricultural sovereignty    practical agri...Young people as esential asset for agricultural sovereignty    practical agri...
Young people as esential asset for agricultural sovereignty practical agri...
 
IFPRI - Food Secure Bihar, P K Joshi, IFPRI
IFPRI - Food Secure Bihar, P K Joshi, IFPRIIFPRI - Food Secure Bihar, P K Joshi, IFPRI
IFPRI - Food Secure Bihar, P K Joshi, IFPRI
 
Dr. pn bhat
Dr. pn bhatDr. pn bhat
Dr. pn bhat
 
Technologies to Improve Livestock Productivity in Drylands, Dr. Barbara Risch...
Technologies to Improve Livestock Productivity in Drylands, Dr. Barbara Risch...Technologies to Improve Livestock Productivity in Drylands, Dr. Barbara Risch...
Technologies to Improve Livestock Productivity in Drylands, Dr. Barbara Risch...
 
Agro-Buzz | GM crops:The True Picture
Agro-Buzz | GM crops:The True PictureAgro-Buzz | GM crops:The True Picture
Agro-Buzz | GM crops:The True Picture
 
7 helen ufondu perception of yam landraces quality among value chain actors i...
7 helen ufondu perception of yam landraces quality among value chain actors i...7 helen ufondu perception of yam landraces quality among value chain actors i...
7 helen ufondu perception of yam landraces quality among value chain actors i...
 
5 seun olowote effect of drying method on caroteniod content of yellow maize
5 seun olowote effect of drying method on caroteniod content of yellow maize5 seun olowote effect of drying method on caroteniod content of yellow maize
5 seun olowote effect of drying method on caroteniod content of yellow maize
 
8 kazeem quality attributes and consumer acceptability of cookies flavoured
8 kazeem quality attributes and consumer acceptability of cookies flavoured8 kazeem quality attributes and consumer acceptability of cookies flavoured
8 kazeem quality attributes and consumer acceptability of cookies flavoured
 
30th october ,2015 daily global regional local rice e newsletter by riceplus ...
30th october ,2015 daily global regional local rice e newsletter by riceplus ...30th october ,2015 daily global regional local rice e newsletter by riceplus ...
30th october ,2015 daily global regional local rice e newsletter by riceplus ...
 
3 akinsola carotenoid apparent retention in ogi flour made from different pro...
3 akinsola carotenoid apparent retention in ogi flour made from different pro...3 akinsola carotenoid apparent retention in ogi flour made from different pro...
3 akinsola carotenoid apparent retention in ogi flour made from different pro...
 
IFPRI- changing consumption pattern of pulses
IFPRI- changing consumption pattern of pulsesIFPRI- changing consumption pattern of pulses
IFPRI- changing consumption pattern of pulses
 
IFPRI- Pulses - An Integral Component for Mitigation and Adaptation under Cli...
IFPRI- Pulses - An Integral Component for Mitigation and Adaptation under Cli...IFPRI- Pulses - An Integral Component for Mitigation and Adaptation under Cli...
IFPRI- Pulses - An Integral Component for Mitigation and Adaptation under Cli...
 

En vedette

Access to water and food under growing scarcity
Access to water and food under growing scarcityAccess to water and food under growing scarcity
Access to water and food under growing scarcityClaudia Ringler
 
Ringler w bpresentation_mitigation_smallsize
Ringler w bpresentation_mitigation_smallsizeRingler w bpresentation_mitigation_smallsize
Ringler w bpresentation_mitigation_smallsizeClaudia Ringler
 
Synergies Between Mitigation and Adaptation to Climate Change:What is the pot...
Synergies Between Mitigation and Adaptation to Climate Change:What is the pot...Synergies Between Mitigation and Adaptation to Climate Change:What is the pot...
Synergies Between Mitigation and Adaptation to Climate Change:What is the pot...Claudia Ringler
 
Impact of globalization on water and food security
Impact of globalization on water and food securityImpact of globalization on water and food security
Impact of globalization on water and food securityClaudia Ringler
 
3 Things Every Sales Team Needs to Be Thinking About in 2017
3 Things Every Sales Team Needs to Be Thinking About in 20173 Things Every Sales Team Needs to Be Thinking About in 2017
3 Things Every Sales Team Needs to Be Thinking About in 2017Drift
 
How to Become a Thought Leader in Your Niche
How to Become a Thought Leader in Your NicheHow to Become a Thought Leader in Your Niche
How to Become a Thought Leader in Your NicheLeslie Samuel
 

En vedette (7)

Access to water and food under growing scarcity
Access to water and food under growing scarcityAccess to water and food under growing scarcity
Access to water and food under growing scarcity
 
Social cce ppt.
Social cce ppt.Social cce ppt.
Social cce ppt.
 
Ringler w bpresentation_mitigation_smallsize
Ringler w bpresentation_mitigation_smallsizeRingler w bpresentation_mitigation_smallsize
Ringler w bpresentation_mitigation_smallsize
 
Synergies Between Mitigation and Adaptation to Climate Change:What is the pot...
Synergies Between Mitigation and Adaptation to Climate Change:What is the pot...Synergies Between Mitigation and Adaptation to Climate Change:What is the pot...
Synergies Between Mitigation and Adaptation to Climate Change:What is the pot...
 
Impact of globalization on water and food security
Impact of globalization on water and food securityImpact of globalization on water and food security
Impact of globalization on water and food security
 
3 Things Every Sales Team Needs to Be Thinking About in 2017
3 Things Every Sales Team Needs to Be Thinking About in 20173 Things Every Sales Team Needs to Be Thinking About in 2017
3 Things Every Sales Team Needs to Be Thinking About in 2017
 
How to Become a Thought Leader in Your Niche
How to Become a Thought Leader in Your NicheHow to Become a Thought Leader in Your Niche
How to Become a Thought Leader in Your Niche
 

Similaire à Kenya synergies between agricultural adpatation and mitigation

Mosnier - Impacts of improved transportation infrastructure on agricultural s...
Mosnier - Impacts of improved transportation infrastructure on agricultural s...Mosnier - Impacts of improved transportation infrastructure on agricultural s...
Mosnier - Impacts of improved transportation infrastructure on agricultural s...CIALCA
 
Dia 1 - Conferência de Abertua - Tony Simons
Dia 1 - Conferência de Abertua - Tony SimonsDia 1 - Conferência de Abertua - Tony Simons
Dia 1 - Conferência de Abertua - Tony Simonscbsaf
 
Kenya Synergies between adaptation and mitigation
Kenya Synergies between adaptation and mitigationKenya Synergies between adaptation and mitigation
Kenya Synergies between adaptation and mitigationguest17e660
 
Kenya Adapt Mitig Final
Kenya Adapt Mitig FinalKenya Adapt Mitig Final
Kenya Adapt Mitig Finalguest17e660
 
Kenya adapt mitig final
Kenya adapt mitig finalKenya adapt mitig final
Kenya adapt mitig finaljonyjoe05
 
Warr Athens 26 Jan 2010 Sustainable Agriculture
Warr Athens 26 Jan 2010 Sustainable AgricultureWarr Athens 26 Jan 2010 Sustainable Agriculture
Warr Athens 26 Jan 2010 Sustainable AgricultureBenjamin Warr
 
REDD+ and agriculture_Dr Vinod T R (The Kerala Environment Congress)_2012
REDD+ and agriculture_Dr Vinod T R (The Kerala Environment Congress)_2012REDD+ and agriculture_Dr Vinod T R (The Kerala Environment Congress)_2012
REDD+ and agriculture_Dr Vinod T R (The Kerala Environment Congress)_2012India Water Portal
 
What an ex-ICRAF DG does Rural Development or Research?
What an ex-ICRAF DG does Rural Development or Research?What an ex-ICRAF DG does Rural Development or Research?
What an ex-ICRAF DG does Rural Development or Research?World Agroforestry (ICRAF)
 
Cristos Xyloiannis-fmv-bari-2012
Cristos Xyloiannis-fmv-bari-2012Cristos Xyloiannis-fmv-bari-2012
Cristos Xyloiannis-fmv-bari-2012Image Line
 
Current status of greenhouse gas emissions from the livestock sector in East ...
Current status of greenhouse gas emissions from the livestock sector in East ...Current status of greenhouse gas emissions from the livestock sector in East ...
Current status of greenhouse gas emissions from the livestock sector in East ...ILRI
 
Mie Kodwo - From 'Burgers' to Biofuels
Mie Kodwo - From 'Burgers' to BiofuelsMie Kodwo - From 'Burgers' to Biofuels
Mie Kodwo - From 'Burgers' to BiofuelsAGYC Conference 2012
 
S 1.2 Enhancing climate-resilience in tropical maize (Zea may L.)
S 1.2 Enhancing climate-resilience in tropical maize (Zea may L.)S 1.2 Enhancing climate-resilience in tropical maize (Zea may L.)
S 1.2 Enhancing climate-resilience in tropical maize (Zea may L.)CIMMYT
 
The Latin America Context: emissions, projections and mitigation plans
The Latin America Context: emissions, projections and mitigation plansThe Latin America Context: emissions, projections and mitigation plans
The Latin America Context: emissions, projections and mitigation plansFAO
 

Similaire à Kenya synergies between agricultural adpatation and mitigation (20)

Synergies Between Mitigation and Adaptation to Climate Change: What is the po...
Synergies Between Mitigation and Adaptation to Climate Change: What is the po...Synergies Between Mitigation and Adaptation to Climate Change: What is the po...
Synergies Between Mitigation and Adaptation to Climate Change: What is the po...
 
The next forty years icrisat 40th anniversary robert [compatibility mode]
The next forty years icrisat 40th anniversary robert [compatibility mode]The next forty years icrisat 40th anniversary robert [compatibility mode]
The next forty years icrisat 40th anniversary robert [compatibility mode]
 
Mosnier - Impacts of improved transportation infrastructure on agricultural s...
Mosnier - Impacts of improved transportation infrastructure on agricultural s...Mosnier - Impacts of improved transportation infrastructure on agricultural s...
Mosnier - Impacts of improved transportation infrastructure on agricultural s...
 
Herrero - Vulnerability and adaptation
Herrero - Vulnerability and adaptationHerrero - Vulnerability and adaptation
Herrero - Vulnerability and adaptation
 
Searchinger - Sustainable food wedges - Hunger for action - 2012-09-04
Searchinger  - Sustainable food wedges - Hunger for action - 2012-09-04Searchinger  - Sustainable food wedges - Hunger for action - 2012-09-04
Searchinger - Sustainable food wedges - Hunger for action - 2012-09-04
 
Dia 1 - Conferência de Abertua - Tony Simons
Dia 1 - Conferência de Abertua - Tony SimonsDia 1 - Conferência de Abertua - Tony Simons
Dia 1 - Conferência de Abertua - Tony Simons
 
Kenya Synergies between adaptation and mitigation
Kenya Synergies between adaptation and mitigationKenya Synergies between adaptation and mitigation
Kenya Synergies between adaptation and mitigation
 
Kenya Adapt Mitig Final
Kenya Adapt Mitig FinalKenya Adapt Mitig Final
Kenya Adapt Mitig Final
 
Kenya adapt mitig final
Kenya adapt mitig finalKenya adapt mitig final
Kenya adapt mitig final
 
Warr Athens 26 Jan 2010 Sustainable Agriculture
Warr Athens 26 Jan 2010 Sustainable AgricultureWarr Athens 26 Jan 2010 Sustainable Agriculture
Warr Athens 26 Jan 2010 Sustainable Agriculture
 
REDD+ and agriculture_Dr Vinod T R (The Kerala Environment Congress)_2012
REDD+ and agriculture_Dr Vinod T R (The Kerala Environment Congress)_2012REDD+ and agriculture_Dr Vinod T R (The Kerala Environment Congress)_2012
REDD+ and agriculture_Dr Vinod T R (The Kerala Environment Congress)_2012
 
What an ex-ICRAF DG does Rural Development or Research?
What an ex-ICRAF DG does Rural Development or Research?What an ex-ICRAF DG does Rural Development or Research?
What an ex-ICRAF DG does Rural Development or Research?
 
Cristos Xyloiannis-fmv-bari-2012
Cristos Xyloiannis-fmv-bari-2012Cristos Xyloiannis-fmv-bari-2012
Cristos Xyloiannis-fmv-bari-2012
 
Current status of greenhouse gas emissions from the livestock sector in East ...
Current status of greenhouse gas emissions from the livestock sector in East ...Current status of greenhouse gas emissions from the livestock sector in East ...
Current status of greenhouse gas emissions from the livestock sector in East ...
 
Mie Kodwo - From 'Burgers' to Biofuels
Mie Kodwo - From 'Burgers' to BiofuelsMie Kodwo - From 'Burgers' to Biofuels
Mie Kodwo - From 'Burgers' to Biofuels
 
Steps to Climate-Smart Agriculture for Wageningen
Steps to Climate-Smart Agriculture for WageningenSteps to Climate-Smart Agriculture for Wageningen
Steps to Climate-Smart Agriculture for Wageningen
 
S 1.2 Enhancing climate-resilience in tropical maize (Zea may L.)
S 1.2 Enhancing climate-resilience in tropical maize (Zea may L.)S 1.2 Enhancing climate-resilience in tropical maize (Zea may L.)
S 1.2 Enhancing climate-resilience in tropical maize (Zea may L.)
 
The Latin America Context: emissions, projections and mitigation plans
The Latin America Context: emissions, projections and mitigation plansThe Latin America Context: emissions, projections and mitigation plans
The Latin America Context: emissions, projections and mitigation plans
 
Learning Event No. 1, Session 1: Strassburg, ARDD2012 Rio
Learning Event No. 1, Session 1: Strassburg, ARDD2012 RioLearning Event No. 1, Session 1: Strassburg, ARDD2012 Rio
Learning Event No. 1, Session 1: Strassburg, ARDD2012 Rio
 
Pavan Sukhdev
Pavan SukhdevPavan Sukhdev
Pavan Sukhdev
 

Dernier

9 Steps For Building Winning Founding Team
9 Steps For Building Winning Founding Team9 Steps For Building Winning Founding Team
9 Steps For Building Winning Founding TeamAdam Moalla
 
AI Fame Rush Review – Virtual Influencer Creation In Just Minutes
AI Fame Rush Review – Virtual Influencer Creation In Just MinutesAI Fame Rush Review – Virtual Influencer Creation In Just Minutes
AI Fame Rush Review – Virtual Influencer Creation In Just MinutesMd Hossain Ali
 
Introduction to Matsuo Laboratory (ENG).pptx
Introduction to Matsuo Laboratory (ENG).pptxIntroduction to Matsuo Laboratory (ENG).pptx
Introduction to Matsuo Laboratory (ENG).pptxMatsuo Lab
 
UWB Technology for Enhanced Indoor and Outdoor Positioning in Physiological M...
UWB Technology for Enhanced Indoor and Outdoor Positioning in Physiological M...UWB Technology for Enhanced Indoor and Outdoor Positioning in Physiological M...
UWB Technology for Enhanced Indoor and Outdoor Positioning in Physiological M...UbiTrack UK
 
Igniting Next Level Productivity with AI-Infused Data Integration Workflows
Igniting Next Level Productivity with AI-Infused Data Integration WorkflowsIgniting Next Level Productivity with AI-Infused Data Integration Workflows
Igniting Next Level Productivity with AI-Infused Data Integration WorkflowsSafe Software
 
Apres-Cyber - The Data Dilemma: Bridging Offensive Operations and Machine Lea...
Apres-Cyber - The Data Dilemma: Bridging Offensive Operations and Machine Lea...Apres-Cyber - The Data Dilemma: Bridging Offensive Operations and Machine Lea...
Apres-Cyber - The Data Dilemma: Bridging Offensive Operations and Machine Lea...Will Schroeder
 
UiPath Studio Web workshop series - Day 7
UiPath Studio Web workshop series - Day 7UiPath Studio Web workshop series - Day 7
UiPath Studio Web workshop series - Day 7DianaGray10
 
Basic Building Blocks of Internet of Things.
Basic Building Blocks of Internet of Things.Basic Building Blocks of Internet of Things.
Basic Building Blocks of Internet of Things.YounusS2
 
Building AI-Driven Apps Using Semantic Kernel.pptx
Building AI-Driven Apps Using Semantic Kernel.pptxBuilding AI-Driven Apps Using Semantic Kernel.pptx
Building AI-Driven Apps Using Semantic Kernel.pptxUdaiappa Ramachandran
 
Salesforce Miami User Group Event - 1st Quarter 2024
Salesforce Miami User Group Event - 1st Quarter 2024Salesforce Miami User Group Event - 1st Quarter 2024
Salesforce Miami User Group Event - 1st Quarter 2024SkyPlanner
 
Nanopower In Semiconductor Industry.pdf
Nanopower  In Semiconductor Industry.pdfNanopower  In Semiconductor Industry.pdf
Nanopower In Semiconductor Industry.pdfPedro Manuel
 
KubeConEU24-Monitoring Kubernetes and Cloud Spend with OpenCost
KubeConEU24-Monitoring Kubernetes and Cloud Spend with OpenCostKubeConEU24-Monitoring Kubernetes and Cloud Spend with OpenCost
KubeConEU24-Monitoring Kubernetes and Cloud Spend with OpenCostMatt Ray
 
Empowering Africa's Next Generation: The AI Leadership Blueprint
Empowering Africa's Next Generation: The AI Leadership BlueprintEmpowering Africa's Next Generation: The AI Leadership Blueprint
Empowering Africa's Next Generation: The AI Leadership BlueprintMahmoud Rabie
 
UiPath Community: AI for UiPath Automation Developers
UiPath Community: AI for UiPath Automation DevelopersUiPath Community: AI for UiPath Automation Developers
UiPath Community: AI for UiPath Automation DevelopersUiPathCommunity
 
Secure your environment with UiPath and CyberArk technologies - Session 1
Secure your environment with UiPath and CyberArk technologies - Session 1Secure your environment with UiPath and CyberArk technologies - Session 1
Secure your environment with UiPath and CyberArk technologies - Session 1DianaGray10
 
Building Your Own AI Instance (TBLC AI )
Building Your Own AI Instance (TBLC AI )Building Your Own AI Instance (TBLC AI )
Building Your Own AI Instance (TBLC AI )Brian Pichman
 
VoIP Service and Marketing using Odoo and Asterisk PBX
VoIP Service and Marketing using Odoo and Asterisk PBXVoIP Service and Marketing using Odoo and Asterisk PBX
VoIP Service and Marketing using Odoo and Asterisk PBXTarek Kalaji
 
Comparing Sidecar-less Service Mesh from Cilium and Istio
Comparing Sidecar-less Service Mesh from Cilium and IstioComparing Sidecar-less Service Mesh from Cilium and Istio
Comparing Sidecar-less Service Mesh from Cilium and IstioChristian Posta
 
How Accurate are Carbon Emissions Projections?
How Accurate are Carbon Emissions Projections?How Accurate are Carbon Emissions Projections?
How Accurate are Carbon Emissions Projections?IES VE
 

Dernier (20)

9 Steps For Building Winning Founding Team
9 Steps For Building Winning Founding Team9 Steps For Building Winning Founding Team
9 Steps For Building Winning Founding Team
 
AI Fame Rush Review – Virtual Influencer Creation In Just Minutes
AI Fame Rush Review – Virtual Influencer Creation In Just MinutesAI Fame Rush Review – Virtual Influencer Creation In Just Minutes
AI Fame Rush Review – Virtual Influencer Creation In Just Minutes
 
Introduction to Matsuo Laboratory (ENG).pptx
Introduction to Matsuo Laboratory (ENG).pptxIntroduction to Matsuo Laboratory (ENG).pptx
Introduction to Matsuo Laboratory (ENG).pptx
 
UWB Technology for Enhanced Indoor and Outdoor Positioning in Physiological M...
UWB Technology for Enhanced Indoor and Outdoor Positioning in Physiological M...UWB Technology for Enhanced Indoor and Outdoor Positioning in Physiological M...
UWB Technology for Enhanced Indoor and Outdoor Positioning in Physiological M...
 
Igniting Next Level Productivity with AI-Infused Data Integration Workflows
Igniting Next Level Productivity with AI-Infused Data Integration WorkflowsIgniting Next Level Productivity with AI-Infused Data Integration Workflows
Igniting Next Level Productivity with AI-Infused Data Integration Workflows
 
Apres-Cyber - The Data Dilemma: Bridging Offensive Operations and Machine Lea...
Apres-Cyber - The Data Dilemma: Bridging Offensive Operations and Machine Lea...Apres-Cyber - The Data Dilemma: Bridging Offensive Operations and Machine Lea...
Apres-Cyber - The Data Dilemma: Bridging Offensive Operations and Machine Lea...
 
UiPath Studio Web workshop series - Day 7
UiPath Studio Web workshop series - Day 7UiPath Studio Web workshop series - Day 7
UiPath Studio Web workshop series - Day 7
 
201610817 - edge part1
201610817 - edge part1201610817 - edge part1
201610817 - edge part1
 
Basic Building Blocks of Internet of Things.
Basic Building Blocks of Internet of Things.Basic Building Blocks of Internet of Things.
Basic Building Blocks of Internet of Things.
 
Building AI-Driven Apps Using Semantic Kernel.pptx
Building AI-Driven Apps Using Semantic Kernel.pptxBuilding AI-Driven Apps Using Semantic Kernel.pptx
Building AI-Driven Apps Using Semantic Kernel.pptx
 
Salesforce Miami User Group Event - 1st Quarter 2024
Salesforce Miami User Group Event - 1st Quarter 2024Salesforce Miami User Group Event - 1st Quarter 2024
Salesforce Miami User Group Event - 1st Quarter 2024
 
Nanopower In Semiconductor Industry.pdf
Nanopower  In Semiconductor Industry.pdfNanopower  In Semiconductor Industry.pdf
Nanopower In Semiconductor Industry.pdf
 
KubeConEU24-Monitoring Kubernetes and Cloud Spend with OpenCost
KubeConEU24-Monitoring Kubernetes and Cloud Spend with OpenCostKubeConEU24-Monitoring Kubernetes and Cloud Spend with OpenCost
KubeConEU24-Monitoring Kubernetes and Cloud Spend with OpenCost
 
Empowering Africa's Next Generation: The AI Leadership Blueprint
Empowering Africa's Next Generation: The AI Leadership BlueprintEmpowering Africa's Next Generation: The AI Leadership Blueprint
Empowering Africa's Next Generation: The AI Leadership Blueprint
 
UiPath Community: AI for UiPath Automation Developers
UiPath Community: AI for UiPath Automation DevelopersUiPath Community: AI for UiPath Automation Developers
UiPath Community: AI for UiPath Automation Developers
 
Secure your environment with UiPath and CyberArk technologies - Session 1
Secure your environment with UiPath and CyberArk technologies - Session 1Secure your environment with UiPath and CyberArk technologies - Session 1
Secure your environment with UiPath and CyberArk technologies - Session 1
 
Building Your Own AI Instance (TBLC AI )
Building Your Own AI Instance (TBLC AI )Building Your Own AI Instance (TBLC AI )
Building Your Own AI Instance (TBLC AI )
 
VoIP Service and Marketing using Odoo and Asterisk PBX
VoIP Service and Marketing using Odoo and Asterisk PBXVoIP Service and Marketing using Odoo and Asterisk PBX
VoIP Service and Marketing using Odoo and Asterisk PBX
 
Comparing Sidecar-less Service Mesh from Cilium and Istio
Comparing Sidecar-less Service Mesh from Cilium and IstioComparing Sidecar-less Service Mesh from Cilium and Istio
Comparing Sidecar-less Service Mesh from Cilium and Istio
 
How Accurate are Carbon Emissions Projections?
How Accurate are Carbon Emissions Projections?How Accurate are Carbon Emissions Projections?
How Accurate are Carbon Emissions Projections?
 

Kenya synergies between agricultural adpatation and mitigation

  • 1. SYNERGIES BETWEEN MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: EXPERIENCE FROM KENYA Glwadys Aymone Gbetibouo University of Pretoria on behalf of Barrack Ok oba, Carla Roncoli, Claudia Ringler, and M ario Herrero Copenhagen, COP 15 December 11, 2009 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  • 2. OUTLINE 1. Impact of climate change on Kenya 2. Synergies between adaptation and mitigation 3. Farmer perceptions of adaptation and mitigation - Preliminary results 4. Conclusions INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  • 3. IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON KENYA INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  • 4. WHY CLIMATE MATTERS FOR KENYA 4.0 10.0 DROUGHT INDEX 3.0 GDP GROWTH 8.0 2.0 6.0 1.0 0.0 4.0 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 -1.0 2.0 -2.0 0.0 -3.0 -4.0 -2.0 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Source: IFPRI
  • 5. KENYA: TEMPERATURE ON THE RISE Mostly: • in the cold season • for min night temps INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Source: Ogutu et al. (2007)
  • 6. KENYA: CHANGE IN PRECIPITATION Small increase expected in Dec-Jan INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Source: IPCC (2007), Herrero (2009)
  • 7. IMPACT OF CC ON MAIZE YIELDS Kenya 2000-2050 Green= increase in yields Brown= decrease in yields Source: Jones and Thornton (2003)
  • 8. IMPACT OF CC ON MAIZE YIELDS Kenya SSA Kenya 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2000 2050 no CC 2050 2050 2050 2050 NCAR369 CSIRO532 CSIRO369 Hadley369 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Source: IFPRI
  • 9. IMPACT OF CC ON CHILD MALNUTRITION (%) Projected to 2025 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2000 2025 no CC 2025 CSIRO 2025 NCAR 2025 Hadley 369 369 369 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Source: IFPRI
  • 10. SYNERGIES BETWEEN ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  • 11. SYNERGIES & TRADEOFFS Profitability Adaptation Mitigation INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  • 12. MITIGATION: POTENTIAL IN AGRICULTURE Estimated total technical and economic mitigation potential (0-20$/ton) on all agricultural land, incl. all management practices and all GHG Mitigation Potential by 2030 Total Agric. Land Economic at Technical Technical (M ha) (t CO2e/ha/yr) (Mt CO2e / yr) 0-20$/ton CO2eq (Mt CO2e / yr) East Africa 364 1.10 400 109 Central 177 1.02 180 49 Africa North Africa 113 0.80 90 25 South Africa 138 0.58 80 22 West Africa 302 0.73 220 60 Total 1093 0.89 970 265 (27%) • Largest potential for agricultural CF projects in East Africa (41%) Note: Estimates calculated from data provided by Smith et al (2008) (for SRES scenario B1)
  • 13. MITIGATION: POTENTIAL IN AGRICULTURE Smallholder Commodity Livestock- Maize Biofuels Coffee Tea Sugar Maize Systems Area available Semi-arid: 3 1.6 0.15 0.15 0.14 in ha (million) 0.9 SALM: 1) Shade 1) No/ burning trees, Inter- of residues Agronomy Jatropha croppin multiple 2) Mulching GHG mitigation Nutrient mgmt Residue 1) Fuel- g no cropping systems activities Water mgmt mgmt. switch option 2) Mulching 3) Fertilizer Agroforestry 2) AR in 3) Fertilizer Kenya related Set aside land use eff emissions Existing extension - - - + ++ + service Tech. GHG 1) 1-12 mitigation 2) 2.5-5.0 2-5 0.5 3–8 ----- 7.8 in 6 years potential in t High CO2e/ha/y. bandwidth Economic mit. ++ ? ? ++ 0 + potential Source: Timm Tennigkeit
  • 14. SYNERGIES BETWEEN ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION  Positive correlation between soil carbon and crop yield  Agricultural practices that improve soil fertility and enhance carbon sequestration also improve yield  Increased fertilizer application, ideally combining inorganic with organic soil fertility types  Increased and more efficient agricultural water management (reduces CO2 from fuel/electricity, conserves land)  Agricultural R&D, advisory services, and information systems support both adaptation and mitigation Page 14
  • 15. TRADEOFFS BETWEEN ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION  Tradeoff between crop residues and animal feeds in parts of Kenya  Lack of application of labor-intensive soil & water fertility management practices on marginal soils (too costly/risky)  Increased fertilizer application (in conjunction with soil fertility management) reduces soil mining and supports mitigation and adaptation, over-fertilization increases GHG
  • 16. FARMER PERCEPTIONS OF ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  • 17. Farmers Are Aware Of The Link Between Agriculture And Climate Change Source: KARI-IFPRI survey, n=351
  • 18. “Which Agricultural Practices Can Help Reduce Climate Change?” 14 61% 12 10 8 (%) 6 4 2 0 Source: KARI-IFPRI survey, n=351; multiple responses possible
  • 19. “What Have You Done In Response To Perceived Climate Change?” 60 50 40 (%) 30 20 10 0 Source: KARI-IFPRI survey, n=351, multiple responses possible
  • 20. “What Would You Like To Do In Response To Perceived Climate Change?” 60 50 40 (%) 30 20 10 0 Source: KARI-IFPRI survey, n=351, multiple responses possible
  • 21. “Why Are You Not Implementing Desired Adaptations?” No access to money No water No access to inputs No access to land Lack of information Shortage of labor No access to credit No market Pests and diseases 0 20 40 60 (%) Source: KARI-IFPRI survey, n=351
  • 22. “Which Developments Do You Need Most Urgently?” 60 50 40 (%) 30 20 10 0 Only responses > 20% included Source: KARI-IFPRI survey, n=351, multiple responses possible
  • 23. “Which Solutions are Most Effective and Desirable to Deal with CC Impacts? ?” High Potential Low Potential Nyeri Syaya Mbere Njoro Garissa Irrigation technology/water infrastructure 1 1 3 2 Farmer organizations 2 Training, capacity building 4 1 4 Education 1 Credit/capital 3 1 2 2 Seed/seedlings provision 2 Mechanization of agriculture 3 Corruption eradication 4 3 Markets, market controls 4 Natural forest restoration 4 Moving from pastoralism to farming 3 Ranking 1 2 3 4 Source: focus groups, KARI-UGA, n=69 men
  • 24. “What are the causes of climate change?” Deforestation Pollution Land clearning Cutting (indigenous) trees Lack of soil conservation Overuse of chemical inputs Overgrazing Planting exotic, inappropriate trees God's will, punishment Farming in sacred sites Extracting sand from river beds Loss of habitat 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Number of mentions (N=32) Source: focus groups, KARI-UGA, n=69
  • 26. CONCLUSIONS  Mitigation to climate change may yield substantial benefits for smallholder farmers in Kenya (US$2.2 billion in East Africa) that can be used to support adaptation and development efforts  Given the low price of carbon offsets (US$5- 20/ha) mitigation activities alone do not yield sufficient benefits: the latter need to be complemented by co-benefits from adaptation and increased productivity/profitability  Therefore it is essential to focus on activities that advance all three areas: profitability, adaptation, and mitigation
  • 27. CONCLUSIONS  Changing crop varieties/types and planting dates are among the most common adaptive strategies at the farm level  The main constraint to implementing other adaptions is lack of access to capital and credit (ex.: irrigation is widely desired but expensive to establish and operate)  Some of the priorities for development identified by farmers (irrigation, extension, capacity building, etc.) will support the synergies of mitigation and adaptation to climate change
  • 28. CONCLUSIONS  Farmers are aware of the connection between agriculture and climate change and of the benefits of planting trees to mitigate climate change  There is less awareness about the mitigation potential for soil and water conservation and integrated soil fertility management and their potential synergies with adaptation