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HKMA’s Regulatory 
Requirements on LRM 
Mr. Fai Y. LAM 
MSc in Financial Engineering 
CFA, CAIA, FRM, 
PRM, MCSE, MCNE 
PRMIA Award of Merit 2005 
Tuesday 16 
October 2012 
11:00 pm to 12:30 pm 
2 
Outline 
 Supervisory framework on LRM 
 Banks’ LRM implementation 
 Survival tips 
 Sound practices of LRM 
3 
Supervisory framework 
 Laws and statutory guidelines 
 Circulars 
 LRM profiling 
 Prudential survey 
 Offsite review 
 Onsite examination 
 Control self-assessment 
 Tripartite meeting 
4 
Laws and statutory guidelines 
 Banking Ordinance 
 Liquidity ratio 25% 
 To be revised under the new Liquidity (Banking) 
Rules 
 Follow Basel III’s LCR and NSFR 
 Statutory supervisory policy manuals 
 LM-1 Liquidity Risk Management 
 LM-2 Sound Systems and Controls for Liquidity 
Risk Management
5 
Circulars 
6 
LRM profiling 
 A long questionnaire consisting 30 to 40 questions 
 LRM officer 
 Composition of LRM committee 
 IT systems for LRM in place 
 Major MIS reports 
 Contingency funding plan 
 No. of liquidity shortage incidents during the last three years 
 Latest audit findings 
 To capture static information about a bank’s LRM program 
 To be completed within two to three months, renew on annual 
basis 
 Regulator to build a centralized database 
7 
Prudential survey 
 A short questionnaire to collect some ad-hoc 
information during the year 
 European debt crisis 
 Quantitative easing 
 RMB liquidity 
 Driven by contemporary political, economic, 
regulatory and/or media focus 
 Issued on ad-hoc basis 
 To be completed within one to four weeks 
8 
Off-site review 
 Revised and updated policies and procedures 
 Independent audit reports on an bank’s LRM 
program 
 LCR implementation plan 
 Action plans to rectify audit findings 
 Progress report on rectification actions 
 Major incident reports 
 Follow up by meetings
9 
Onsite examination 
 Comprehensive examination 
 Two/three-people group, around two to three months 
 Covering major topics of an bank's LRM program 
 To assess the quality of an bank's LRM program 
 Thematic examination 
 One man band, around one month 
 Covering one to three hot LRM topics 
 Aim at identifying sound practices and common issues of 
contemporary LRM topics 
10 
Control-self assessment (“CSA”) 
 A comprehensive audit check list 
 To be completed by an FI herself 
 Covering critical policy areas 
 For each control procedure 
 Compliance status – fully, partially or not 
compliant 
 Explanations of compliance 
 Mitigation plan and tentative completion date 
11 
CSA summary 
12 
CSA summary by institution
13 
CSA summary by control procedure 
14 
CSA summary by institution and 
control procedure 
15 
Compliance projection 
16 
Tripartite meeting 
 Three-party senior meeting among 
 Financial institution 
 Auditor 
 Regulator 
 To assess the major and critical areas for 
improvement and/or development
17 
Challenges facing banks 
 External 
 Regulatory requirements keep on changing and tightening 
 Lacking implementation references 
 Lacking comprehensive academic theory 
 Internal 
 LRM is a cost centre 
 Limited budget 
 Lack of manpower 
 LRM impacts the cost and revenue directly 
18 
Outline 
 Supervisory framework on LRM 
 Banks’ LRM implementation 
 Survival tips 
 Sound practices of LRM 
19 
LRM structure 
 Management oversight 
 Board of directors – to listen and approve 
 Senior management – to propose and action 
 Liquidity risk management framework 
 Identification 
 Measurement 
 Monitoring 
 Control 
 Regulatory returns 
 Public disclosure 
20 
Liquidity risk identification 
 Assets vs liabilities 
 Off balance items 
 Funding sources 
 Contingent liabilities 
 Foreign currency
21 
Liquidity risk measurement 
 Cash flow approach 
 Accounting based 
 Advantages 
 +, -, x, / 
 Easy to understand 
 Simple to implement 
 Disadvantages 
 Cannot capture diversification 
 Fail to handle off-balance sheet items 
 Rely on subjective assumptions 
22 
Contractual maturity mismatch 
23 
Liquidity risk measurement 
 Liquidity stock approach 
 Liquefiable assets = Sum of Assets x (1 – haircut) 
 Liquidity ratio = Liquefiable assets / Liabilities 
 Minimum 25%, the higher the better 
 Advantages 
 Simple 
 Disadvantages 
 Totally useless 
24 
Liquidity risk monitoring 
 Bank liquidity monitoring 
 Maturity profile 
 Contractually cash inflows vs outflows 
 Behavioral assumptions 
 To ascertain that liquidity stock  0 
 Liquidity ratio 
 Liquefiable assets / Liabilities 
 Market monitoring 
 Counterparty monitoring
25 
Market-related monitoring tools 
 Market-wide information 
 Equity market indices, interest rates, currency rates, 
commodity prices, volatility indices and CDS indices 
 Information (news) on the financial sector 
 To track whether the financial sector as a whole is 
mirroring broader market movements or is experiencing 
difficulties 
 Bank-specific information 
 The confidence of market in a particular institution or has 
identified risks at an institution, e.g. stock prices, 
volatilities, credit spreads and credit ratings 
26 
Scenario analysis and stress-testing 
 Bank specific 
 Failure of major counterparties 
 Failure of parent companies 
 Credit downgrade 
 Bank run 
 Market wide 
 Market crisis 
 Liquidity flowing outside Hong Kong 
 Standard results 
 Overall – no major 
 Specific immaterial items – room for enhancements 
 Major issues 
 Internal historical data insufficient 
 External historical data not transparency 
 Using academic theories 
27 
Liquidity risk control 
 Liquidity cushion 
 Regulatory liquidity – LCR and NSFR 
 Economic liquidity 
 Liquidity volatility 
 A missed item 
 Diversification 
 Wholesale funding 
 Retail funding 
 Market access 
 Question: How to measure diversification? 
28 
Liquidity risk control (***) 
 Intragroup liquidity 
 Intraday liquidity 
 Collateral management 
 Contingency funding flan
29 
Regulatory returns 
 Liquidity position 
 Liquidity ratio  25% 
 Maturity profile 
 Liquidity stock  0 in short to medium terms 
 Return on selected data for liquidity stress-testing 
 A hypothetical bank-run situation 
 Not used by anybody 
30 
Outline 
 Supervisory framework on LRM 
 Banks’ LRM implementation 
 Survival tips 
 Sound practices of LRM 
31 
Banks’ survival tips 
 With strong confidence 
 You know more than the HKMA and BCBS 
 Think in the shoes of the HKMA 
 Exception, regulatory and media focus 
 Demonstrate 
 No major issues in short to medium terms 
 Continuous improvements through assessments, plans and actions 
 Regular update to regulator 
 Meetings and short reports 
 Reserve immaterial rooms for suggestions 
 No major issues 
 Certain minor areas for enhancements 
32 
Management oversight 
 LRM committee 
 Likely to be same members from the ALM 
committee 
 Terms of reference 
 Regular meetings, at least quarterly 
 To listen and approve/disapprove 
 To dedicate actions to the LRM working group 
 Agendas and meeting minutes
33 
LRM working group 
 To work on action items 
 To review draft policies 
 To approve procedures 
 To identify, measure, monitor and control 
 To source service providers 
 To request for budgets 
 To satisfy regulator 
34 
LRM policies 
 Prepared by the LRM project teams 
 Reviewed by the LRM working group 
 Approved by the LRM committee 
 Taking into accounting LM-1, LM-2 and LBR 
 Policy structure largely following LM-1, LM-2 and LBR 
 No of pages = LM-1 + LM-2 + LBR 
 To be reviewed on on-going basis 
 At least annually 
 Material changes to regulatory requirements 
 Substantial changes to business conditions 
35 
LRM implementations 
 LRM working group meetings 
 Procedures for focus topics, e.g. contingency 
funding plan 
 Monthly MIS reports 
 Exception report 
 Trend analysis 
 Peer analysis 
 Review and sign off 
 IT system to produce reports 
36 
Contractual maturity mismatch 
 To identify the gaps between the contractual inflows 
and outflows of liquidity for defined time bands 
 To indicate how much liquidity a bank would 
potentially need to raise in each of these time bands 
if all outflows occurred at the earliest possible date 
 To provide insight into the extent to which the bank 
relies on maturity transformation under its current 
contracts
37 
Concentration of funding 
 To identify those sources of wholesale funding that 
are of such significance that withdrawal of this 
funding could trigger liquidity problems 
 To encourage the diversification of funding sources 
 Thresholds 
 Significant counterparties  1% 
 Significant instruments / products  1% 
 Significant currencies  5% 
38 
Concentration of funding 
. 
' 
/ 
. 
' 
. 
Funding liabilities sourced from each significant counterparty 
a 
The bank s balance sheet total 
Funding liabilities sourced from each significant product instrument 
b 
The bank s balance sheet total 
ing liabilities sourced by each significant currency 
Fund 
c 
The bank ' 
s balance sheet total 
39 
Available unencumbered assets 
 The assets that have the potential to be used as 
collateral to raise additional secured funding in 
secondary markets and/or are eligible at central 
banks and as such may potentially be additional 
sources of liquidity for the bank 
 A list of quantity of available unencumbered assets 
that are marketable as collateral in secondary 
markets and/or eligible for central banks’ standing 
facilities by denominating currency, location and 
other major characteristics 
40 
LCR by significant currency 
 To evaluate banks’ ability to raise funds in foreign currency 
markets and the ability to transfer a liquidity surplus from one 
currency to another and across jurisdictions and legal entities 
 Higher currency LCR expected for currencies in which a 
bank has limited ability to raise funds in foreign currency 
markets and/or the ability to transfer a liquidity surplus from 
one currency to another and across jurisdictions and legal 
entities 
 Amount of total net foreign exchange cash outflows to be net 
of foreign exchange hedges 
30 
Foreign currency LCR 
Stock of high quality liquid assets in each significant currency 
Total net cash outflows over the next calendar days in each significant currency 
=
41 
Preparation of MIS reports 
 Start from the minimum set 
 Same set of MIS reports for regulatory reporting and 
internal LRM purposes when ever possible 
 To reduce recognition effort 
 Add at most two per quarter 
 Automation by IT systems 
 Microsoft Excel and Access 
 Algorithmics, Oracle, SAS, etc. 
 Never dress a big suit if you are small 
42 
Market monitoring 
 Major currencies 
 Major interest rates 
 Major equity market 
indices 
 Price and volatility 
indices 
 Major commodity 
prices 
 Gold, old 
 Major credit indices 
 Large exposures 
 Credit rating 
 CDS spread 
 Credit spread 
 Action plans 
 Crisis management 
team and meeting 
 Keep on monitoring 
43 
Monitoring by weekly percentage 
changes 
80%=4 year 
44 
Snapshot analysis
45 
Snapshot summary 
46 
Trend analysis 
47 
LRM outsourcing 
 Global market monitoring 
 Training and awareness 
 Compliance 
 Procedure review 
 Control-self assessment 
 Thematic review on fashion topics 
 Annual independent assessment 
48 
Training and awareness programs 
 General training 
 For all bank staff 
 Special topic training 
 Tailored for certain staff, e.g. treasury department 
 Regular update training 
 New comer training 
 Attendancy record 
 After training assessment
49 
Outline 
 Supervisory framework on LRM 
 Banks’ LRM implementation 
 Survival tips 
 Sound practices of LRM 
50 
Governance 
 The Board of Directors determines and 
articulates the “liquidity risk tolerance” for 
the AI both qualitatively and quantitatively. 
 Liquidity costs are allocated to business lines 
according to their respective risk taking 
activities so that business incentives are 
aligned with the AI’s liquidity risk tolerance. 
51 
Risk identification, measurement, 
monitoring and control 
 Net cash-flow mismatches along different 
time horizons are measured: day-by-day for 
the near term to ensure management has a 
clear picture of the most imminent funding 
needs, and by time buckets for the medium to 
long term. 
 Cash-flows are monitored by individual 
currency when AIs’ exposures to FX liquidity 
risk in respect of that currency are significant. 
52 
Risk identification, measurement, 
monitoring and control 
 The behavioural and contractual assumptions applied 
in cash-flow projections to each applicable asset, 
liability and off-balance sheet item are properly 
documented. 
 Effective management information systems are put 
in place to enable the timely generation of accurate 
cash-flow analysis and other liquidity risk 
management reports, both on a regular basis and 
upon the request of users 
 Regular basic qualitative review of the AI’s 
resilience to liquidity squeezes isconducted,
53 
Intraday liquidity risk management 
 Review is undertaken of intra-day liquidity 
reports generated at various predefined times 
throughout the day to assess cash-flows needs 
and the adequacy of the AI’s intraday 
liquidity resources 
 The respective levels of intra-day liquidity 
needs, during both normal and stressed 
market conditions, are regularly reassessed 
54 
Stress-testing and scenario analysis 
 The impact of significant cash outflows under 
market-wide and institution specific stress scenarios 
is analyzed 
 Reasonable assumptions are applied with respect to 
key parameters based on relevant market and/or 
institutional experience 
 The cash inflows expected to be generated from the 
sale of liquid assets are fairly incorporated by 
applying prudent assumptions 
 Regular reporting of stress-testing results to the 
senior management is required 
55 
Sound practices or wish list 
 Maintenance of liquidity cushion 
 A reasonable amount of liquidity cushion is maintained by 
setting floor limits on the holding of very high quality 
liquid assets 
 Contingency funding plan 
 Detailed and prescriptive policies and procedures on a 
contingency funding plan (CFP) are maintained and 
comprehensive assessment on the feasibility of the CFP 
conducted, drawing on experiences in respect of stresses 
on markets and/or institutional liquidity during past 
financial crises.

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6. the hkma’s regulatory requirements on liquidity risk management

  • 1. HKMA’s Regulatory Requirements on LRM Mr. Fai Y. LAM MSc in Financial Engineering CFA, CAIA, FRM, PRM, MCSE, MCNE PRMIA Award of Merit 2005 Tuesday 16 October 2012 11:00 pm to 12:30 pm 2 Outline Supervisory framework on LRM Banks’ LRM implementation Survival tips Sound practices of LRM 3 Supervisory framework Laws and statutory guidelines Circulars LRM profiling Prudential survey Offsite review Onsite examination Control self-assessment Tripartite meeting 4 Laws and statutory guidelines Banking Ordinance Liquidity ratio 25% To be revised under the new Liquidity (Banking) Rules Follow Basel III’s LCR and NSFR Statutory supervisory policy manuals LM-1 Liquidity Risk Management LM-2 Sound Systems and Controls for Liquidity Risk Management
  • 2. 5 Circulars 6 LRM profiling A long questionnaire consisting 30 to 40 questions LRM officer Composition of LRM committee IT systems for LRM in place Major MIS reports Contingency funding plan No. of liquidity shortage incidents during the last three years Latest audit findings To capture static information about a bank’s LRM program To be completed within two to three months, renew on annual basis Regulator to build a centralized database 7 Prudential survey A short questionnaire to collect some ad-hoc information during the year European debt crisis Quantitative easing RMB liquidity Driven by contemporary political, economic, regulatory and/or media focus Issued on ad-hoc basis To be completed within one to four weeks 8 Off-site review Revised and updated policies and procedures Independent audit reports on an bank’s LRM program LCR implementation plan Action plans to rectify audit findings Progress report on rectification actions Major incident reports Follow up by meetings
  • 3. 9 Onsite examination Comprehensive examination Two/three-people group, around two to three months Covering major topics of an bank's LRM program To assess the quality of an bank's LRM program Thematic examination One man band, around one month Covering one to three hot LRM topics Aim at identifying sound practices and common issues of contemporary LRM topics 10 Control-self assessment (“CSA”) A comprehensive audit check list To be completed by an FI herself Covering critical policy areas For each control procedure Compliance status – fully, partially or not compliant Explanations of compliance Mitigation plan and tentative completion date 11 CSA summary 12 CSA summary by institution
  • 4. 13 CSA summary by control procedure 14 CSA summary by institution and control procedure 15 Compliance projection 16 Tripartite meeting Three-party senior meeting among Financial institution Auditor Regulator To assess the major and critical areas for improvement and/or development
  • 5. 17 Challenges facing banks External Regulatory requirements keep on changing and tightening Lacking implementation references Lacking comprehensive academic theory Internal LRM is a cost centre Limited budget Lack of manpower LRM impacts the cost and revenue directly 18 Outline Supervisory framework on LRM Banks’ LRM implementation Survival tips Sound practices of LRM 19 LRM structure Management oversight Board of directors – to listen and approve Senior management – to propose and action Liquidity risk management framework Identification Measurement Monitoring Control Regulatory returns Public disclosure 20 Liquidity risk identification Assets vs liabilities Off balance items Funding sources Contingent liabilities Foreign currency
  • 6. 21 Liquidity risk measurement Cash flow approach Accounting based Advantages +, -, x, / Easy to understand Simple to implement Disadvantages Cannot capture diversification Fail to handle off-balance sheet items Rely on subjective assumptions 22 Contractual maturity mismatch 23 Liquidity risk measurement Liquidity stock approach Liquefiable assets = Sum of Assets x (1 – haircut) Liquidity ratio = Liquefiable assets / Liabilities Minimum 25%, the higher the better Advantages Simple Disadvantages Totally useless 24 Liquidity risk monitoring Bank liquidity monitoring Maturity profile Contractually cash inflows vs outflows Behavioral assumptions To ascertain that liquidity stock 0 Liquidity ratio Liquefiable assets / Liabilities Market monitoring Counterparty monitoring
  • 7. 25 Market-related monitoring tools Market-wide information Equity market indices, interest rates, currency rates, commodity prices, volatility indices and CDS indices Information (news) on the financial sector To track whether the financial sector as a whole is mirroring broader market movements or is experiencing difficulties Bank-specific information The confidence of market in a particular institution or has identified risks at an institution, e.g. stock prices, volatilities, credit spreads and credit ratings 26 Scenario analysis and stress-testing Bank specific Failure of major counterparties Failure of parent companies Credit downgrade Bank run Market wide Market crisis Liquidity flowing outside Hong Kong Standard results Overall – no major Specific immaterial items – room for enhancements Major issues Internal historical data insufficient External historical data not transparency Using academic theories 27 Liquidity risk control Liquidity cushion Regulatory liquidity – LCR and NSFR Economic liquidity Liquidity volatility A missed item Diversification Wholesale funding Retail funding Market access Question: How to measure diversification? 28 Liquidity risk control (***) Intragroup liquidity Intraday liquidity Collateral management Contingency funding flan
  • 8. 29 Regulatory returns Liquidity position Liquidity ratio 25% Maturity profile Liquidity stock 0 in short to medium terms Return on selected data for liquidity stress-testing A hypothetical bank-run situation Not used by anybody 30 Outline Supervisory framework on LRM Banks’ LRM implementation Survival tips Sound practices of LRM 31 Banks’ survival tips With strong confidence You know more than the HKMA and BCBS Think in the shoes of the HKMA Exception, regulatory and media focus Demonstrate No major issues in short to medium terms Continuous improvements through assessments, plans and actions Regular update to regulator Meetings and short reports Reserve immaterial rooms for suggestions No major issues Certain minor areas for enhancements 32 Management oversight LRM committee Likely to be same members from the ALM committee Terms of reference Regular meetings, at least quarterly To listen and approve/disapprove To dedicate actions to the LRM working group Agendas and meeting minutes
  • 9. 33 LRM working group To work on action items To review draft policies To approve procedures To identify, measure, monitor and control To source service providers To request for budgets To satisfy regulator 34 LRM policies Prepared by the LRM project teams Reviewed by the LRM working group Approved by the LRM committee Taking into accounting LM-1, LM-2 and LBR Policy structure largely following LM-1, LM-2 and LBR No of pages = LM-1 + LM-2 + LBR To be reviewed on on-going basis At least annually Material changes to regulatory requirements Substantial changes to business conditions 35 LRM implementations LRM working group meetings Procedures for focus topics, e.g. contingency funding plan Monthly MIS reports Exception report Trend analysis Peer analysis Review and sign off IT system to produce reports 36 Contractual maturity mismatch To identify the gaps between the contractual inflows and outflows of liquidity for defined time bands To indicate how much liquidity a bank would potentially need to raise in each of these time bands if all outflows occurred at the earliest possible date To provide insight into the extent to which the bank relies on maturity transformation under its current contracts
  • 10. 37 Concentration of funding To identify those sources of wholesale funding that are of such significance that withdrawal of this funding could trigger liquidity problems To encourage the diversification of funding sources Thresholds Significant counterparties 1% Significant instruments / products 1% Significant currencies 5% 38 Concentration of funding . ' / . ' . Funding liabilities sourced from each significant counterparty a The bank s balance sheet total Funding liabilities sourced from each significant product instrument b The bank s balance sheet total ing liabilities sourced by each significant currency Fund c The bank ' s balance sheet total 39 Available unencumbered assets The assets that have the potential to be used as collateral to raise additional secured funding in secondary markets and/or are eligible at central banks and as such may potentially be additional sources of liquidity for the bank A list of quantity of available unencumbered assets that are marketable as collateral in secondary markets and/or eligible for central banks’ standing facilities by denominating currency, location and other major characteristics 40 LCR by significant currency To evaluate banks’ ability to raise funds in foreign currency markets and the ability to transfer a liquidity surplus from one currency to another and across jurisdictions and legal entities Higher currency LCR expected for currencies in which a bank has limited ability to raise funds in foreign currency markets and/or the ability to transfer a liquidity surplus from one currency to another and across jurisdictions and legal entities Amount of total net foreign exchange cash outflows to be net of foreign exchange hedges 30 Foreign currency LCR Stock of high quality liquid assets in each significant currency Total net cash outflows over the next calendar days in each significant currency =
  • 11. 41 Preparation of MIS reports Start from the minimum set Same set of MIS reports for regulatory reporting and internal LRM purposes when ever possible To reduce recognition effort Add at most two per quarter Automation by IT systems Microsoft Excel and Access Algorithmics, Oracle, SAS, etc. Never dress a big suit if you are small 42 Market monitoring Major currencies Major interest rates Major equity market indices Price and volatility indices Major commodity prices Gold, old Major credit indices Large exposures Credit rating CDS spread Credit spread Action plans Crisis management team and meeting Keep on monitoring 43 Monitoring by weekly percentage changes 80%=4 year 44 Snapshot analysis
  • 12. 45 Snapshot summary 46 Trend analysis 47 LRM outsourcing Global market monitoring Training and awareness Compliance Procedure review Control-self assessment Thematic review on fashion topics Annual independent assessment 48 Training and awareness programs General training For all bank staff Special topic training Tailored for certain staff, e.g. treasury department Regular update training New comer training Attendancy record After training assessment
  • 13. 49 Outline Supervisory framework on LRM Banks’ LRM implementation Survival tips Sound practices of LRM 50 Governance The Board of Directors determines and articulates the “liquidity risk tolerance” for the AI both qualitatively and quantitatively. Liquidity costs are allocated to business lines according to their respective risk taking activities so that business incentives are aligned with the AI’s liquidity risk tolerance. 51 Risk identification, measurement, monitoring and control Net cash-flow mismatches along different time horizons are measured: day-by-day for the near term to ensure management has a clear picture of the most imminent funding needs, and by time buckets for the medium to long term. Cash-flows are monitored by individual currency when AIs’ exposures to FX liquidity risk in respect of that currency are significant. 52 Risk identification, measurement, monitoring and control The behavioural and contractual assumptions applied in cash-flow projections to each applicable asset, liability and off-balance sheet item are properly documented. Effective management information systems are put in place to enable the timely generation of accurate cash-flow analysis and other liquidity risk management reports, both on a regular basis and upon the request of users Regular basic qualitative review of the AI’s resilience to liquidity squeezes isconducted,
  • 14. 53 Intraday liquidity risk management Review is undertaken of intra-day liquidity reports generated at various predefined times throughout the day to assess cash-flows needs and the adequacy of the AI’s intraday liquidity resources The respective levels of intra-day liquidity needs, during both normal and stressed market conditions, are regularly reassessed 54 Stress-testing and scenario analysis The impact of significant cash outflows under market-wide and institution specific stress scenarios is analyzed Reasonable assumptions are applied with respect to key parameters based on relevant market and/or institutional experience The cash inflows expected to be generated from the sale of liquid assets are fairly incorporated by applying prudent assumptions Regular reporting of stress-testing results to the senior management is required 55 Sound practices or wish list Maintenance of liquidity cushion A reasonable amount of liquidity cushion is maintained by setting floor limits on the holding of very high quality liquid assets Contingency funding plan Detailed and prescriptive policies and procedures on a contingency funding plan (CFP) are maintained and comprehensive assessment on the feasibility of the CFP conducted, drawing on experiences in respect of stresses on markets and/or institutional liquidity during past financial crises.