A statistics study on the effect of steroids on home runs demonstrating my comprehension of statistical analysis.

1. The Effect of Steroids on Home Runs
John Pabustan
Statistics Final Project
Dr. Cruise
December 1, 2011
La Sierra University

2. Statement of the problem:
One’s livelihood is often dependent on what their employer believes their worth to be in
the workplace. Employees with higher values often get higher salaries and because of it people
often attempt to get an edge over their counterparts by finding some way to increase their
performance. Things like taking energy drinks to stay alert, attending secondary school to
increase intelligence, or even taking some form of stimulant to increase performance often at
least helps a person believe their worth has increased. The question becomes how far will a
person go to receive a perceived “edge” and does this “edge” come at a price? Secondly, is the
“edge” worth the risk and really does it affect a person’s performance? These questions are one’s
we all deal with on a daily basis when attempting to decide whether or not to do something to
increase our own performance. A cup of coffee, for example, may make you more alert in the
mornings but overtime can be harmful to your health. These types of decisions have long time
effects that we may not often see but, what if there was some product that could increase our
productivity immensely? The product is readily available but is illegal in your profession while
at the same time not illegal in some cases to the general public. In a more confusing sense the
product in your profession has now been made illegal by the United States Government because
of the importance of your profession to the general public and what people perceive to be a job
that requires “integrity”. The job has no real impact on politics, science, or even general health of
the public yet because of the perception of the profession it leads others to demand a higher form
of self-evaluation from its employees. This profession is a game, but the game is Baseball.
Baseball is a game that is often called “America’s Game”. A game that many children
grow up playing and many adults continue to romanticize about because it seems to show the
freedoms Americans have to do something unheard of in other countries. It puts ideas such as
capitalism and a blurring of color lines on to an even playing field where anyone can prove their
worth to the world. The problem has become that players now who are living the ultimate dream,
now may be doing things to get an edge to stay relevant in the game. Baseball contracts, as well
as sports contracts in general, are all a perception of worth of a player. If a player can prove he is
worth 8 million dollars he can command 8 million dollars. The inherent problem with baseball is
it is an evaluation of players vs. other available players that can possibly do a job better than
others or do the same job at a lesser wage. A game that started out very simply from a bat and
ball has now become one where different drugs known as “steroids” cloud the wholesome idea
of playing a kid’s game professionally. Baseball and Bud Selig (current Major League baseball
commissioner) often turned a blind eye to “steroids” but due to recent government mandates it
has become a hot button issue. The effect of “steroids” is often under debate but many who have
used them swear by the idea that it makes a player hit more home runs. The question then
becomes:
2

3. Do Steroids Significantly Increase the Amount of Home Runs for professional baseball
players?
If there is a significant correlation in the study, then the ban on them would make sense or would
call for all steroids to be legalized to even the playing field. It also calls into place several other
ideas that will be explained later in this study.
Hypothesis:
The rampant explosion of books and tell alls about steroid use points to several players
who have hit incredible amounts of home runs and more importantly some admittedly using
them to increase performance. During the 1998 season in which there was a homerun race
between Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa it was widely known that Mark McGwire who went
on to break Roger Maris’ record of 61 home runs, was on Andro a steroid that one year later
would be a banned substance (Hoberman 1) . Sammy Sosa who hit 66 homeruns that year would
later test positive for steroids in 2003 and many have called for him to admit his use in 1998. The
tell all books Game of Shadows and Juiced by Jose Canseco a former Mark McGwire teammate,
exposed that several players were taking steroids from Balco a bay area steroid company or other
sources. Many players deny their use of steroids although being found in both the Mitchell
Report (a report by Senator George J. Mitchell from Maine that looked into anabolic steroid use
in baseball) and in the Balco seized documents that named several players as clients. The list of
names includes players such as Mark McGwire, Alex Rodriguez, Jose Canseco, Gary Sheffield
and Jason Giambi who have commanded some of the biggest contracts in baseball as a result of
incredible home run production. In fact, the highest paid player in baseball today is Alex
Rodriguez who has admittedly taken steroids(Goldman 1 ).
My hypothesis based on the success of many alleged players is that the use of steroids leads
to more home runs.
In fact, this year’s current NL Most Valuable Player Ryan Braun has recently been shown to
have failed a drug test late this season and may have his MVP award revoked. (Weir 1)
Definition of Terms:
One of the major concepts of this study is understanding what statistically is considered a home
run.
In baseball, a home run (abbreviated HR) is scored when the ball is hit in such a way that the
batter is able to reach home safely in one play without any errors being committed by the
defensive team in the process (Merriam-Webster). This would include all types of home runs
such as inside the park (where a player reaches home safely without hitting it out of the field of
3

4. play), a grand slam (a homerun with the bases loaded), and the most common homerun of hitting
the ball out of the field of play(Merriam-Webster).
Any homerun listed that is scored a homerun by Major League Baseball will be taken into
account no matter the variety.
Population and sample:
Statistically the only way to create the right type of significance as well as use players who
definitely used steroids is to sample every player who since the Mitchell Report and the two tell
all books that many people cite as the basis for steroids testing (Juiced and Game of Shadows)
admitted to taking steroids. These players will be sifted by excluding pitchers who are not used
to hit homeruns and will only use players who gave a definite season in which they began steroid
use. Players who have subsequently failed drug tests while not admitting to steroid use or players
who deny steroid use will not be used as there is a chance that they have never used them even
with several implications that they were known by steroid suppliers.
The testimonies of many of the players listed come from the book Game of Shadows and are
verified by the players themselves.
Research Tools:
-The Mitchell Report (explained above)
-Official Statistics Collected by Major League Baseball
-Game of Shadows by Mark Fainaru-Wada
-Juiced by Jose Canseco
-Verified Testimonies collected in Game of Shadows
Method of Analysis
The method of analysis chosen is a paired t test for dependent variables as we are studying a
player before the use of steroids and after then comparing the results.
4

5. Procedure
After gathering the information from the above listed sources, a paired t test was run with the
previous season before steroid use and the admitted steroid use season. The Results are listed
below.
Results
Admitted Previous Season Admitted
Steroid User Before Steroids Steroid Season
Ken Caminiti 26 40
Bobby Estalella 0 14
Jason Giambi 38 41
Jeremy Giambi 26 34
Armando Rios 7 10
Benito Santiago 6 16
Gary Sheffield 25 39
Jose Canseco 37 44
Shane Monahan 0 4
Wally Joyner 8 13
Ryan Jorgensen 0 2
David Segui 5 48
Jason Grimsley 6 8
Manny Ramirez 20 37
Jorge Piedra 3 6
Matt Lawton 20 39
Mike Morse 0 3
David Ortiz 20 31
Hypothesis test results:
μ1 - μ2 : mean of the paired difference between Admitted Steroid Season and Previous Season
Before Steroids
H0 : μ1 - μ2 = 0
HA : μ1 - μ2 ≠ 0
Difference Sample Diff. Std. Err. DF T-Stat P-value
Admitted Steroid Season - Previous
10.111111 2.3331778 17 4.3336225 0.0005
Season Before Steroids
5

6. Conclusion:
After going through the available data on this study on the use of steroids in professional
baseball I have found my study to be statistically significant (0.0005). My p < than alpha so I
reject the null hypothesis and this means therefore, there is no greater than a five percent chance
that this is due to chance. The magnitude of the study using a paired T-test shows that there is a
difference of 10 more home runs being hit if steroids are being used. The direction shows that
those using steroids are more likely to hit more home runs than in the previous season. The
importance of this finding is that professional baseball is determined on how valuable a team
owner finds your own particular value. Home runs often are a stat that many owners see as one
where more compensation is due to a player in comparison to another who hits less home runs. A
player can command upwards of millions of dollars for as little as ten more home runs than
another player. The difference can be staggering as a player with 10 more home runs could make
millions more than a player who has hit only 10 less. Players who want to increase their worth
may see taking steroids as a difference between 100,000 dollars and 100 million dollars which is
a difference that may sway one player or another to take steroids.
The worth of this study is that players who are willing to endure the consequences of health and
governmental bodies can possibly use steroids to increase their home run totals. It is to their own
discretion but steroids seem to increase home run production.
6

7. Works Cited
Canseco, Jose. Juiced: Wild Times, Rampant 'Roids, Smash Hits, and How Baseball Got Big.
New York: It Books, 2006.
Fainaru-Wada, Mark. Game of Shadows: Barry Bonds, BALCO, and the Steroids Scandal
that Rocked Professional Sports. New York: Gotham, 2006.
Goldman, Russell. 'A-Rod' Alex Rodriguez Admits to 'Banned Substance' Use: 'I Was
Stupid, I Was Naive'. 9 Feb 2009. ABC News 8 Dec 2011.
<http://abcnews.go.com/Sports/story?id=6837969&page=1#.TuZIj1Y_tlI>
"home run." Merriam-Webster.com. Merriam-Webster, 2011.
Web. 12 Dec 2011.
Hoberman, John. Mark McGwire's Little Helper: The Androstenedione Debate. 8 Dec 2011.
<http://www.thinkmuscle.com/articles/hoberman/mcgwire.htm>
Mitchell, Senator George J. Report to the Commissioner of Baseball of an Independent
Investigation into the Illegal Use of Steroids and Other Performance Enhancing
Substances by Players in Major League Baseball. A study prepared for The U.S.
Congress. Press, 2006.
Weir, Tom. Should Ryan Braun lose MVP if he's guilty of using PEDs? 12 Dec 2011 USA
Today 12 Dec 2011.
7