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2013
Producer
Meeting
Risk Management In
   An Uncertain
   Environment
January 25th 2013
HLC/ AgQuest Producer Meeting
Todays agenda includes:
8:50-9:00- Ben Fast-County Executive Director-Disaster Payment

9:00-9:25-Kurt Legred- CHS- broad range of markets

9:25-9:35-Dennis Schreier-General Manager

9:35-10:50-Kevin, Joel, Mark, Steve- Scenarios, Matrix, Marketing prices & local
Yields-Bull, Neutral, & Bearish Scenarios

10:50-11:10- Lynn Button- Insurance Quoting Software continuing on from Joel’s
examples & numbers on how insurance minimizes lost members including insurance
cost, insurance indemnity during the bull, neutral, & bearish scenarios

11:10-11:40- Marty Bonnell- Petroleum- Brams Engineering LLC-Senior Civil
Engineer

11:40-12:00-Tim Lewis-Agribusiness Farm Insurance Specialist, Certified Insurance
Counselor, Master Farm Certified
Ben Fast-FSA
County Executive Director (CED)
USDA Farm Service Agency
CHS Hedging

                                                   January 25th, 2013
                                                     Harvest Land
                                                      Kurt Legred

This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
Grain Trade has become a Global Exercise




 This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
 a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
 guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
 commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
CRB- old and new




This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
Reuters CRB Index




This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
Weekly Continuous Commodity Index




This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
Weekly Baltic Dry Freight Index




This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
Weekly U.S. Dollar Index




This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
Monthly U.S. Dollar Index




This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
Weekly Crude Oil Futures on CME




This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
Monthly Crude Oil Futures on the CME




  This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
  a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
  guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
  commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
US Corn




This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
Corn Outlook
• USDA raised the planted acres……lowered harvested acres slightly

• The yield was raised 1.1 bushel per acre…..

• Feed & Residual saw a healthy 300 million bushel increase while exports
  were reduced 200 million bushels

• 2012-13 exports are down 593 million bushels from 2011-12 marketing
  year

• Ending stocks are at 602 million bushels, down 45 million bushels



    This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
    a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
    guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
    commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
US Corn Supply/Demand Balance Table
                                                                                                                                                                                        Estimate
                         00-01          01-02           02-03          03-04          04-05          05-06           06-07          07-08           08-09    09-10    10-11    11-12     12-13
Planted Acres             79.6           75.7            78.9           78.6           80.9           81.8            78.3           93.5            86.0     86.4     88.2     91.9     97.2
Harvested Acres           72.4           68.8            69.3           70.9           73.6           75.1            70.6           86.5            78.6     79.5     81.4     84.0     87.4
Yield                    136.9          138.2           129.3          142.2          160.4          148.0           149.1          150.7           153.9    164.7    152.8    147.2     123.4


Sep 1 Stocks             1,718          1,899           1,596          1,087            958          2,114           1,967          1,304           1,624    1,673    1,708    1,128     989
Production               9,915          9,503           8,967         10,089         11,807          11,114         10,535         13,038           12,092   13,092   12,447   12,360   10,780


Imports                     7              10             14             14             11               9             12             20             14        8       28       29       100
Total Supply            11,639          11,412         10,578         11,190         12,776          13,237         12,514         14,362           13,729   14,774   14,182   13,516   11,869


Domestic Use             7,799          7,911           7,903          8,332          8,444          9,122           9,086         10,302           10,198   11,079   11,220   10,985   10,317
Exports                  1,941          1,905           1,588          1,900          1,818          2,147           2,125          2,436           1,858    1,987    1,835    1,543     950
Ethanol                    628            706            996           1,168          1,323          1,603           2,117          3,026           3,677    4,568    5,021    5,011     4,500
Total Use                9,740          9,815           9,491         10,232         10,662          11,270         11,210         12,737           12,056   13,066   13,055   12,527   11,267


Aug 31 Carryout          1,899          1,596           1,087           958           2,114          1,967           1,304          1,624           1,673    1,708    1,128     989      602
Stocks to Use            19.5%           16.3%          11.5%           9.4%          19.8%           17.5%          11.6%          12.8%           13.9%    13.1%     8.6%     7.9%     5.3%




           This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
           a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
           guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
           commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
US Corn Planted Acres
               120.0



                                                                                                                                                                                       97.2
               100.0
                                                                                                                                       93.5                                    91.9
                                                                                                                                                       86.0    86.4    88.2
                                                         78.9                            80.9           81.8
                80.0
                           79.6                                         78.6                                           78.3
                                          75.7
Milion Acres




                60.0




                40.0




                20.0




                 0.0
                           00-01          01-02           02-03          03-04           04-05          05-06           06-07          07-08           08-09   09-10   10/11   11-12   12-13

                                                                                                                        Year
                   This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
                   a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
                   guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
                   commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
US Corn Harvested Acres
                100.0

                                                                                                                                     86.5                                                87.4
                 90.0
                                                                                                                                                                         81.4    84.0
                                                                                                                                                                 79.5
                 80.0                                                                                                                                 78.6
                          72.4                                                          73.6           75.1
                                                         69.3            70.9                                         70.6
                 70.0                    68.8

                 60.0
Million Acres




                 50.0


                 40.0


                 30.0


                 20.0


                 10.0


                  0.0
                           00-01          01-02           02-03          03-04           04-05          05-06          06-07           07-08          08-09      09-10   10/11   11-12   12-13 E

                                                                                                                        Year

                        This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
                        a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
                        guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
                        commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
US Corn Yield
                   180.0

                                                                                           160.4                                                                            152.8
                                                                                                                                                        153.9
                   160.0
                                                                                                                            149.1                                                    147.2
                                                                                                                                                                    164.7
                   140.0
                              136.9                        129.3                                                                          150.7
                                                                                                           148.0
                                             138.2                          142.2
                   120.0
                                                                                                                                                                                            123.4
Bushels Per Acre




                   100.0


                    80.0


                    60.0


                    40.0


                    20.0


                     0.0
                                00-01          01-02           02-03          03-04           04-05          05-06          06-07           07-08          08-09    09-10   10/11   11-12    12-13 E

                                                                                                                             Year

                           This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
                           a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
                           guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
                           commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
US Corn Production
                  14000
                                                                                                                                   13038                           13092
                                                                                                                                                                           12447 12360
                                                                                                                                                  12092
                  12000                                                               11807
                                                                                                     11114
                                                                                                                    10535                                                                   10780
                            9915 9503                                 10089
                  10000                                 8967
Million Bushels




                   8000



                   6000



                   4000



                   2000



                      0
                            00-01          01-02          02-03           03-04          04-05          05-06          06-07          07-08          08-09         09-10    10/11   11-12   12-13 E
                                                                                                                        Year


                          This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
                          a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
                          guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
                          commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
US Corn FSI Usage
                  7000
                                                                                                                                                                          6428    6437
                                                                                                                                                                  5939                    5867
                  6000


                                                                                                                                                    4953
                  5000

                                                                                                                                    4363
Million Bushels




                  4000
                                                                                                                     3488

                                                                                                     2981
                  3000                                                                2686
                                                                     2537
                                                      2340
                         1957         2047
                  2000



                  1000



                     0
                         00-01           01-02          02-03           03-04          04-05           05-06          06-07           07-08           08-09       09-10   10/11   11-12   12-13 E
                                                                                                                        Year

                         This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
                         a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
                         guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
                         commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
US Corn Feed Usage
                  7000


                                                                                         6158             6141                          5938
                           5842            5864                           5795
                  6000
                                                          5563                                                            5598
                                                                                                                                                       5246       5140
                                                                                                                                                                          4793
                  5000
                                                                                                                                                                                  4548    4450
Million Bushels




                  4000



                  3000



                  2000



                  1000



                     0
                             00-01           01-02          02-03           03-04          04-05           05-06          06-07           07-08          08-09    09-10   10/11   11-12   12-13 E
                                                                                                                           Year

                         This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
                         a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
                         guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
                         commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
US Corn Domestic Use
                  12000
                                                                                                                                                                   11079 11220 10985
                                                                                                                                       10302 10198                                          10317
                  10000
                                                                                                        9122             9086
                                                                                         8844
                                                                         8332
                                          7911           7903
                   8000   7799
Million Bushels




                   6000




                   4000




                   2000




                      0
                           00-01           01-02           02-03           03-04          04-05           05-06           06-07           07-08          08-09      09-10   10/11   11-12   12-13 E
                                                                                                                           Year

                          This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
                          a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
                          guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
                          commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
US Corn Exports
                  3000




                  2500                                                                                                                 2436

                                                                                                        2147            2125
                  2000    1941           1905                             1900                                                                                    1987
                                                                                        1818                                                           1858               1835
Million Bushels




                                                         1588
                                                                                                                                                                                  1543
                  1500




                  1000
                                                                                                                                                                                           950



                  500




                     0
                           00-01           01-02           02-03          03-04           04-05           05-06          06-07           07-08           08-09    09-10   10/11   11-12E   12-13 E
                                                                                                                          Year

                         This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
                         a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
                         guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
                         commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
US Corn Used For Ethanol
                  6000



                                                                                                                                                                          5021    5011
                  5000
                                                                                                                                                                  4568                    4500

                  4000
                                                                                                                                                       3677
Million Bushels




                                                                                                                                        3026
                  3000



                                                                                                                        2117
                  2000
                                                                                                         1603
                                                                        1168             1323
                                                          995
                  1000                    706
                           628


                     0
                           00-01           01-02           02-03          03-04           04-05           05-06          06-07           07-08           08-09    09-10   10/11   11-12   12-13 E
                                                                                                                          Year

                         This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
                         a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
                         guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
                         commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
US Corn Ending Stocks
                  2500



                                                                                       2114
                  2000
                                                                                                       1967
                         1899
                                                                                                                                                      1673        1708
                                       1596                                                                                            1624
                  1500
Million Bushels




                                                                                                                       1304

                                                       1087                                                                                                               1128
                  1000
                                                                        958                                                                                                       989


                                                                                                                                                                                           602
                   500




                     0
                         00-01           01-02           02-03          03-04           04-05           05-06           06-07           07-08           08-09     09-10   10/11   11-12   12-13 E
                                                                                                                         Year

                         This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
                         a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
                         guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
                         commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
US Corn Stocks To Use Ratio
   25.0%




                 19.5%                                                     19.8%
   20.0%

                                                                                            17.5%
                            16.3%
   15.0%
                                                                                                                                            13.9%
                                                                                                                             12.8%                          13.1%
Percent




                                                                                                             11.6%
                                             11.5%
                                                             9.4%
   10.0%
                                                                                                                                                                    8.6%
                                                                                                                                                                            7.9%

                                                                                                                                                                                    5.3%
          5.0%




          0.0%
                 00-01        01-02           02-03           03-04           04-05           05-06           06-07           07-08           08-09         09-10   10/11   11-12   12-13 E
                                                                                                               Year

                   This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
                   a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
                   guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
                   commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
World Corn Outlook
• World production was increased 3.21 million tonnes to 852.30
  million tonnes

• Brazil production was increased 1.0 million tonnes to 71.0
  million tonnes

• FSU corn production was reduced ½ a million to 31.76 million
  tonnes

• World ending stocks were lowered 1.62 million tonnes




 This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
 a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
 guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
 commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
World Corn Production & Ending Stocks
                 1000

                                                                                                                                                                          884
                 900
                                                                                                                                                                  832              852
                                                                                                                                             799           819
                                                                                                                               792
                 800
                                                                                     713           697           712
                 700
                            589                         602            623
                                           599
                 600
Million Tonnes




                 500


                 400


                 300


                 200
                            171
                                          148                                        131                                       130           149           144            132
                                                         125                                       125           109                                              127              116
                 100                                                   104

                    0
                            00-01         01-02         02-03         03-04         04-05         05-06         06-07         07-08         08-09         09-10   10-11   11-12   12-13 E

                                                                                                                Year


                        This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
                        a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
                        guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
                        commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
25%
                                                    World Corn Stocks to Use

20%
                  19%
                                                          18%

15%
                                                                                                 15%                                    15%
                                                                                                                                                 13%


10%




5%




0%
                   08-09                                   09-10                                  10-11                                  11-12   12-13 E




      This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
      a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
      guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
      commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
China Corn Production & Exports
                 250.0



                                                                                                                                                                                          208.0
                                                                                                                                                                                  192.8
                 200.0
                                                                                                                                                                          177.3
                                                                                                                                                165.9 164.0
                                                                                                                   151.6 152.3
                 150.0
                                                                                      130.3 139.4
Million Tonnes




                                                         121.3
                                          114.0                        115.8
                           106.0
                 100.0




                  50.0



                                                          15.2
                              7.3           8.6                           7.6           7.6            3.7            5.3
                   0.0                                                                                                              0.6            0.2            0.2      0.1     0.1     0.2
                             00-01         01-02          02-03          03-04         04-05          05-06          06-07         07-08          08-09           09-10   10-11   11-12   12-13 E

                                                                                                                     Year


                         This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
                         a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
                         guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
                         commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
Argentine Corn Production & Exports
                 30.0                                                                                                                                                                    28.0

                                                                                                                                                                         25.2
                 25.0
                                                                                                                                                                 23.3
                                                                                                                   22.5          22.0
                                                                                      20.5                                                                                       21.0
                 20.0
                                                                                                                                                                                         19.5
Million Tonnes




                                                                                                    15.8                                                                         17.5
                           15.4                          15.5          15.0                                                                    15.5              16.5    16.4
                                          14.7                                                                     15.3
                 15.0                                                                                                            14.8
                                                                                      14.6

                                          10.8           11.2          10.9
                 10.0                                                                                                                           10.3
                             9.7                                                                     9.5


                  5.0




                  0.0
                            00-01         01-02          02-03         03-04          04-05         05-06          06-07         07-08          08-09            09-10   10-11   11-12   12-13 E

                                                                                                                   Year



                        This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
                        a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
                        guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
                        commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
Brazil Corn Production & Exports
                 80.0

                                                                                                                                                                   73.0
                                                                                                                                                                           71.0
                 70.0



                 60.0                                                                                                 58.6                       56.1      57.4

                                                                                                          51.0                      51.0
                 50.0                                47.6
                                                                                            41.7
Million Tonnes




                          41.5                                   42.8
                 40.0
                                       35.5                                    35.0

                 30.0



                 20.0
                                                                                                                                                                   21.5
                                                                                                                                                                           17.5

                 10.0                                                                                     10.8                                    11.6
                                                                                                                        7.8           7.1                  8.4
                            6.5                       5.2           4.1                       4.5
                                         1.9                                     0.7
                  0.0
                           00-01        01-02        02-03         03-04        04-05        05-06        06-07        07-08         08-09        09-10    10-11   11-12   12-13 E
                                                                                                           Year


                  This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
                  a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
                  guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
                  commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
South Africa Corn Production & Exports
                 16.0



                 14.0                                                                                                                                                               13.5
                                                                                                                               13.2                         13.4
                                                                                                                                             12.6                           12.4
                 12.0                                                               11.7
                                                                                                                                                                    10.9
                                          10.1           9.7
                 10.0                                                   9.7
Million Tonnes




                             8.0
                  8.0
                                                                                                    6.9           7.3

                  6.0



                  4.0


                                                                                                                                                                    2.5              2.5
                  2.0                                                                 2.1                                        2.2                         2.1            2.0
                                                                                                                                               1.7
                             1.3           1.1            1.1
                                                                        0.7                         0.6           0.5
                  0.0
                            00-01         01-02          02-03         03-04         04-05         05-06          06-07         07-08         08-09         09-10   10-11   11-12   12-13 E
                                                                                                                   Year


                        This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
                        a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
                        guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
                        commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
Annual Corn Use Implied by Weekly Ethanol
Production
                   4620
                   4600
                                                     Cumulative average is at 4541 mb.
                   4580
                   4560
     mb corn use




                   4540
                   4520
                   4500
                   4480
                   4460                                                                                     USDA est.
                   4440
                   4420




                                                                                                                                                 Dec 07
                                                                                                                                                          Dec 14
                                                                                                                                                                   Dec 21
                                                                                                                                                                            Dec 28
                                                               Oct 05
                                                                        Oct 12
                                                                                 Oct 19
                                                                                          Oct 26




                                                                                                                                                                                     Jan 04
                          Sep 07
                                   Sep 14
                                            Sep 21
                                                     Sep 28




                                                                                                   Nov 02
                                                                                                            Nov 09
                                                                                                                     Nov 16
                                                                                                                               Nov 23
                                                                                                                                        Nov 30
     This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
     a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
     guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
     commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
CBOT July 1996 Corn Futures versus
CBOT December 1996 Corn Futures




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a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
CME July 2013 Corn Futures versus
     Dec. 2013 Corn Futures




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a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
CME Nearby Monthly Corn Futures




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a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
CME March 2013 Corn Futures




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a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
CME July 2013 Corn Futures




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a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
CME December 2013 Corn Futures




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a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
Soybeans

• WORLD SUPPLY/DEMAND
• US BALANCE SHEET
• PRICES




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a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
World Situation




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a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
Local Marketing Years
September 1,                                                         August 31,
   2012                                                                2013
                                      U.S.

                                                                      April 1, 2013

                                                                                     Argentina
                                                                                                                                 March 31,
                                                                                                                                  2014

                                                    Feb. 1, 2013
                                                                                Brazil
                                                                                                                  Jan. 31, 2014
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a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
World Soybean Stocks
          80
                             Exporter Stocks- Local
          70                 Marketing Years
                             World Stocks
          60

          50
   mmt




          40

          30

          20

          10

            0




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a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
Brazil & Argentina Ending Stocks
 Local Marketing Years
         14
                            Argentina
         12
                            Brazil                                                                                                             Local marketing years ending
                                                                                                                                               early 2013
         10

           8
mmt




           6

           4

           2

           0




      This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
      a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
      guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
      commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
Stocks/Use
 30%
                                Exporters Stocks/Use- Local                                                              World Aggregate

 25%


 20%


 15%
                                                                                                                                       MY ended fall 2013 U.S.,
                                                                                                                                       and spring 2014 S.A.
 10%


  5%


  0%




   This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
   a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
   guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
   commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
Stocks-to-Use Ratio
Local Marketing Year
   16%
                                                                        Argentina                          Brazil
   14% Any additional production losses will come
       out of use in Brazil; Argentina could maintain
       current export projection without making a
   12% new low in the ratio.

   10%

     8%

     6%

     4%

     2%

     0%




 This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
 a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
 guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
 commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
Area Harvested
             30
                                                                                        Brazil                  Argentina                                                27.5
                                                                                                                                                                  25.0
             25                                                                                        22.9 22.2                                      23.5 24.2
                                                                                           21.5                                          21.7
                                                                                                                               20.7 21.3
                                                                                                                                                                          19.5
             20                                                                18.4                                                                    18.6 18.3
                                                                                                                                                                 17.6
                                                                    16.4                                                          16.3 16.4 16.0
million ha




                                                                                                                      15.2
             15 13.0 12.9 13.6 13.9                                                            14.0 14.4
                                                                                   12.6
                                                                       11.4
                                                           10.4
             10                      8.2         8.6
                         7.0

              5


              0




             This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
             a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
             guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
             commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
Soybean Yield
        49                                 Argentina                                     Brazil                             Linear (Argentina)                                                     Linear (Brazil)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 46.3
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          44.6
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         43.7
        44                                                                                                              42.2                  41.9                                      42.442.6
                                                                                                                                                                                        44.5
                                                                                                                                                                                                           43.6
                                                                                                                                   39.6                                                                39.6                             39.6
                                                                                        41.7                                           41.9                                                        42.0
                                                                                                37.9                                                             38.1                                                                       41.2
        39                                                                              37.2                                                                 40.3
                                                                                                    39.7                                                         39.6                                                               39.8
                                                                                            36.1        39.1
  bpa




                                                                                                                                                         35.2
                                                                             34.4                                                                            34.4
                           33.032.8                                                                36.436.7
        34 36.035.2    32.1
                   31.5                                                                                                                                  35.1
                   34.434.1                                                                                                                                                                                                                    33.9
               29.6        32.6
        29                     31.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                              29.7

               24.0                                                          26.9
        24
                           1991/92
                                     1992/93


                                                         1994/95
                                                                   1995/96
                                                                              1996/97


                                                                                                    1998/99
                                                                                                              1999/00
                                                                                                                         2000/01


                                                                                                                                               2002/03
                                                                                                                                                          2003/04
                                                                                                                                                                    2004/05


                                                                                                                                                                                         2006/07
                                                                                                                                                                                                    2007/08
                                                                                                                                                                                                               2008/09


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     2010/11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                2011/12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           2012/13
                 1990/91




                                               1993/94




                                                                                         1997/98




                                                                                                                                    2001/02




                                                                                                                                                                              2005/06




                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2009/10
  This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
  a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
  guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
  commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
Production: Brazil & Argentina
                                                                                  Brazil              Argentina

        160                   Crop estimates are coming in as low as
                              45 mmt for Argentina and 65 mmt for
        140                   Brazil.

        120
  mmt




                                                                                                                                                                  54.0
        100                                                                                                                                  54.5   49.0
                                                                                                         48.8          46.2                                40.1
        80                                                                                 40.5
                                                35.5                        39.0                                                     32.0
                                                              33.0
        60                        30.0
                   27.8
        40                                                                                                                                          75.3          82.5
                                                                                                                       61.0                  69.0          66.5
                                                52.0          51.0          53.0           57.0          59.0                        57.8
        20         39.5           43.5

          0




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    a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
    guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
    commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
World Import Demand
                                                                                             Rest of World                                China

       120

       100

       80
mmtr




       60

       40

       20

         0
                  1990/91


                                      1992/93


                                                          1994/95
                                                                    1995/96


                                                                                        1997/98


                                                                                                            1999/00
                                                                                                                      2000/01


                                                                                                                                          2002/03


                                                                                                                                                              2004/05
                                                                                                                                                                        2005/06


                                                                                                                                                                                            2007/08
                                                                                                                                                                                                      2008/09
                                                                                                                                                                                                                2009/10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2010/11


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              2012/13
                            1991/92


                                                1993/94




                                                                              1996/97


                                                                                                  1998/99




                                                                                                                                2001/02


                                                                                                                                                    2003/04




                                                                                                                                                                                  2006/07




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    2011/12
        This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
        a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
        guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
        commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
Chinese Crush Margins
             800

             600

             400

             200
CNY/tonne




               0

             -200

             -400

             -600

             -800

            -1000




This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
Chinese Soybean Imports
            7

            6

            5
                                                                                                                                         2007/08
            4
                                                                                                                                         2008/09
      mmt




            3                                                                                                                            2009/10
                                                                                                                                         2010/11
            2
                                                                                                                                         2011/12
            1                                                                                                                            2012/13

            0




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a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
Brazil Soybean Exports
       7

       6

       5
mmt




       4                                                                                                                                 2011
                                                                                                                                         2012
       3
                                                                                                                                         2013
       2

       1

       0
                  Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

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a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
U.S. Balance Sheet




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a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
NOPA Crush
       170
                                                                                                                                         2009/10   2010/11

       160
                                                                                                                                         2011/12   2012/13

       150

       140
mb




       130

       120

                                      Unadjusted for April 2011
       110                            membership change                                   December was up 10% y/y.

       100




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a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
Quarterly Crush
                                                                                                                                     Y/Y Assumptions:
                                                                                                                                     Q1 +10%
     600                                                                                                                             Q2+2%
                                Q1          Q2         Q3         Q4                                                                 Q3 -7%
                                                                                                                                     Q4 -28%
     500                                            467
                                 459                                                                                                        451
              442                                                                         445                443
                                                                       420                                                      412
     400
mb




     300



     200



     100



       0
                2005/06            2006/07            2007/08            2008/09            2009/10            2010/11            2011/12    2012/13



 This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
 a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
 guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
 commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
U.S. Bean Export Commitments
                  1800

                  1600

                  1400

                  1200
million bushels




                  1000
                                                                                                                    12/13 exports were unchanged at
                   800                                                                                              1,345 mb.

                   600

                   400
                                                                                                                                    2008/09            2009/10
                                                                                                                                    2010/11            2011/12
                   200
                                                                                                                                    2012/13
                     0
                         Sep   Oct          Nov           Dec           Jan           Feb          Mar           Apr          May          Jun   Jul     Aug



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  a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
  guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
  commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
Export Commitments: % of Final
Soybeans

   120%
                                         2012/13
                                         5-yr average
   100%


   80%                                                                                                            1,345 is consistent with the pace from
                                                                                                                  2010/11.

   60%


   40%


   20%


    0%




      This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
      a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
      guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
      commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
Export Commitments: % of Final
Soybean Oil


                                                                         2012/13                               5-yr avg.

   120%

   100%

    80%

    60%
                                                                                                                  Oil exports were raised by 350 million
                                                                                                                  pounds. Commitments are now 69% of
    40%                                                                                                           the projected total, ahead of the average
                                                                                                                  of 39% for this date.
    20%

    0%




      This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
      a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
      guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
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Export Commitments: % of Final
Soybean Meal

                                                                            2012/13                                 5-yr avg

  120%

  100%

   80%

   60%
                                                                                                                 Meal export s were unchanged on the
   40%                                                                                                           January report.


   20%

    0%




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     a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
     guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
     commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
Source: U of Illinois


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a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
Source: U of Illinois, OPIS


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a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
Soy Oil Use
                           Soyoil use for biodiesel

                         Estimate of soyoil use required to meet RFS2 biodiesel mandate (calendar
                    6000 year)                  If biodiesel production is 1.83
                                                                            billion gallons, calendar 2013 soy
                    5000                                                    oil use is estimated at 6,241

                    4000
   million pounds




                    3000

                    2000

                    1000

                       0




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            a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
            guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
            commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
2013 producer meeting
2013 producer meeting
2013 producer meeting
2013 producer meeting
2013 producer meeting
2013 producer meeting
2013 producer meeting
2013 producer meeting
2013 producer meeting
2013 producer meeting
2013 producer meeting
2013 producer meeting
2013 producer meeting
2013 producer meeting
2013 producer meeting
2013 producer meeting
2013 producer meeting
2013 producer meeting
2013 producer meeting
2013 producer meeting
2013 producer meeting
2013 producer meeting
2013 producer meeting
2013 producer meeting
2013 producer meeting
2013 producer meeting
2013 producer meeting
2013 producer meeting
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2013 producer meeting

  • 2. Risk Management In An Uncertain Environment January 25th 2013 HLC/ AgQuest Producer Meeting
  • 3.
  • 4.
  • 5.
  • 6. Todays agenda includes: 8:50-9:00- Ben Fast-County Executive Director-Disaster Payment 9:00-9:25-Kurt Legred- CHS- broad range of markets 9:25-9:35-Dennis Schreier-General Manager 9:35-10:50-Kevin, Joel, Mark, Steve- Scenarios, Matrix, Marketing prices & local Yields-Bull, Neutral, & Bearish Scenarios 10:50-11:10- Lynn Button- Insurance Quoting Software continuing on from Joel’s examples & numbers on how insurance minimizes lost members including insurance cost, insurance indemnity during the bull, neutral, & bearish scenarios 11:10-11:40- Marty Bonnell- Petroleum- Brams Engineering LLC-Senior Civil Engineer 11:40-12:00-Tim Lewis-Agribusiness Farm Insurance Specialist, Certified Insurance Counselor, Master Farm Certified
  • 7. Ben Fast-FSA County Executive Director (CED) USDA Farm Service Agency
  • 8. CHS Hedging January 25th, 2013 Harvest Land Kurt Legred This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 9. Grain Trade has become a Global Exercise This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 10. CRB- old and new This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 11. Reuters CRB Index This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 12. Weekly Continuous Commodity Index This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 13. Weekly Baltic Dry Freight Index This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 14. Weekly U.S. Dollar Index This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 15. Monthly U.S. Dollar Index This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 16. Weekly Crude Oil Futures on CME This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 17. Monthly Crude Oil Futures on the CME This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 18. US Corn This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 19. Corn Outlook • USDA raised the planted acres……lowered harvested acres slightly • The yield was raised 1.1 bushel per acre….. • Feed & Residual saw a healthy 300 million bushel increase while exports were reduced 200 million bushels • 2012-13 exports are down 593 million bushels from 2011-12 marketing year • Ending stocks are at 602 million bushels, down 45 million bushels This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 20. US Corn Supply/Demand Balance Table Estimate 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 Planted Acres 79.6 75.7 78.9 78.6 80.9 81.8 78.3 93.5 86.0 86.4 88.2 91.9 97.2 Harvested Acres 72.4 68.8 69.3 70.9 73.6 75.1 70.6 86.5 78.6 79.5 81.4 84.0 87.4 Yield 136.9 138.2 129.3 142.2 160.4 148.0 149.1 150.7 153.9 164.7 152.8 147.2 123.4 Sep 1 Stocks 1,718 1,899 1,596 1,087 958 2,114 1,967 1,304 1,624 1,673 1,708 1,128 989 Production 9,915 9,503 8,967 10,089 11,807 11,114 10,535 13,038 12,092 13,092 12,447 12,360 10,780 Imports 7 10 14 14 11 9 12 20 14 8 28 29 100 Total Supply 11,639 11,412 10,578 11,190 12,776 13,237 12,514 14,362 13,729 14,774 14,182 13,516 11,869 Domestic Use 7,799 7,911 7,903 8,332 8,444 9,122 9,086 10,302 10,198 11,079 11,220 10,985 10,317 Exports 1,941 1,905 1,588 1,900 1,818 2,147 2,125 2,436 1,858 1,987 1,835 1,543 950 Ethanol 628 706 996 1,168 1,323 1,603 2,117 3,026 3,677 4,568 5,021 5,011 4,500 Total Use 9,740 9,815 9,491 10,232 10,662 11,270 11,210 12,737 12,056 13,066 13,055 12,527 11,267 Aug 31 Carryout 1,899 1,596 1,087 958 2,114 1,967 1,304 1,624 1,673 1,708 1,128 989 602 Stocks to Use 19.5% 16.3% 11.5% 9.4% 19.8% 17.5% 11.6% 12.8% 13.9% 13.1% 8.6% 7.9% 5.3% This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 21. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 22. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 23. US Corn Planted Acres 120.0 97.2 100.0 93.5 91.9 86.0 86.4 88.2 78.9 80.9 81.8 80.0 79.6 78.6 78.3 75.7 Milion Acres 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10/11 11-12 12-13 Year This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 24. US Corn Harvested Acres 100.0 86.5 87.4 90.0 81.4 84.0 79.5 80.0 78.6 72.4 73.6 75.1 69.3 70.9 70.6 70.0 68.8 60.0 Million Acres 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10/11 11-12 12-13 E Year This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 25. US Corn Yield 180.0 160.4 152.8 153.9 160.0 149.1 147.2 164.7 140.0 136.9 129.3 150.7 148.0 138.2 142.2 120.0 123.4 Bushels Per Acre 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10/11 11-12 12-13 E Year This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 26. US Corn Production 14000 13038 13092 12447 12360 12092 12000 11807 11114 10535 10780 9915 9503 10089 10000 8967 Million Bushels 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10/11 11-12 12-13 E Year This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 27. US Corn FSI Usage 7000 6428 6437 5939 5867 6000 4953 5000 4363 Million Bushels 4000 3488 2981 3000 2686 2537 2340 1957 2047 2000 1000 0 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10/11 11-12 12-13 E Year This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 28. US Corn Feed Usage 7000 6158 6141 5938 5842 5864 5795 6000 5563 5598 5246 5140 4793 5000 4548 4450 Million Bushels 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10/11 11-12 12-13 E Year This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 29. US Corn Domestic Use 12000 11079 11220 10985 10302 10198 10317 10000 9122 9086 8844 8332 7911 7903 8000 7799 Million Bushels 6000 4000 2000 0 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10/11 11-12 12-13 E Year This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 30. US Corn Exports 3000 2500 2436 2147 2125 2000 1941 1905 1900 1987 1818 1858 1835 Million Bushels 1588 1543 1500 1000 950 500 0 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10/11 11-12E 12-13 E Year This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 31. US Corn Used For Ethanol 6000 5021 5011 5000 4568 4500 4000 3677 Million Bushels 3026 3000 2117 2000 1603 1168 1323 995 1000 706 628 0 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10/11 11-12 12-13 E Year This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 32. US Corn Ending Stocks 2500 2114 2000 1967 1899 1673 1708 1596 1624 1500 Million Bushels 1304 1087 1128 1000 958 989 602 500 0 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10/11 11-12 12-13 E Year This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 33. US Corn Stocks To Use Ratio 25.0% 19.5% 19.8% 20.0% 17.5% 16.3% 15.0% 13.9% 12.8% 13.1% Percent 11.6% 11.5% 9.4% 10.0% 8.6% 7.9% 5.3% 5.0% 0.0% 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10/11 11-12 12-13 E Year This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 34. World Corn Outlook • World production was increased 3.21 million tonnes to 852.30 million tonnes • Brazil production was increased 1.0 million tonnes to 71.0 million tonnes • FSU corn production was reduced ½ a million to 31.76 million tonnes • World ending stocks were lowered 1.62 million tonnes This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 35. World Corn Production & Ending Stocks 1000 884 900 832 852 799 819 792 800 713 697 712 700 589 602 623 599 600 Million Tonnes 500 400 300 200 171 148 131 130 149 144 132 125 125 109 127 116 100 104 0 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 E Year This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 36. 25% World Corn Stocks to Use 20% 19% 18% 15% 15% 15% 13% 10% 5% 0% 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 E This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 37. China Corn Production & Exports 250.0 208.0 192.8 200.0 177.3 165.9 164.0 151.6 152.3 150.0 130.3 139.4 Million Tonnes 121.3 114.0 115.8 106.0 100.0 50.0 15.2 7.3 8.6 7.6 7.6 3.7 5.3 0.0 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 E Year This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 38. Argentine Corn Production & Exports 30.0 28.0 25.2 25.0 23.3 22.5 22.0 20.5 21.0 20.0 19.5 Million Tonnes 15.8 17.5 15.4 15.5 15.0 15.5 16.5 16.4 14.7 15.3 15.0 14.8 14.6 10.8 11.2 10.9 10.0 10.3 9.7 9.5 5.0 0.0 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 E Year This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 39. Brazil Corn Production & Exports 80.0 73.0 71.0 70.0 60.0 58.6 56.1 57.4 51.0 51.0 50.0 47.6 41.7 Million Tonnes 41.5 42.8 40.0 35.5 35.0 30.0 20.0 21.5 17.5 10.0 10.8 11.6 7.8 7.1 8.4 6.5 5.2 4.1 4.5 1.9 0.7 0.0 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 E Year This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 40. South Africa Corn Production & Exports 16.0 14.0 13.5 13.2 13.4 12.6 12.4 12.0 11.7 10.9 10.1 9.7 10.0 9.7 Million Tonnes 8.0 8.0 6.9 7.3 6.0 4.0 2.5 2.5 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.7 1.3 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.0 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 E Year This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 41. Annual Corn Use Implied by Weekly Ethanol Production 4620 4600 Cumulative average is at 4541 mb. 4580 4560 mb corn use 4540 4520 4500 4480 4460 USDA est. 4440 4420 Dec 07 Dec 14 Dec 21 Dec 28 Oct 05 Oct 12 Oct 19 Oct 26 Jan 04 Sep 07 Sep 14 Sep 21 Sep 28 Nov 02 Nov 09 Nov 16 Nov 23 Nov 30 This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 42. CBOT July 1996 Corn Futures versus CBOT December 1996 Corn Futures This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 43. CME July 2013 Corn Futures versus Dec. 2013 Corn Futures This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 44. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 45. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 46. CME Nearby Monthly Corn Futures This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 47. CME March 2013 Corn Futures This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 48. CME July 2013 Corn Futures This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 49. CME December 2013 Corn Futures This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 50. Soybeans • WORLD SUPPLY/DEMAND • US BALANCE SHEET • PRICES This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 51. World Situation This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 52. Local Marketing Years September 1, August 31, 2012 2013 U.S. April 1, 2013 Argentina March 31, 2014 Feb. 1, 2013 Brazil Jan. 31, 2014 This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 53. World Soybean Stocks 80 Exporter Stocks- Local 70 Marketing Years World Stocks 60 50 mmt 40 30 20 10 0 This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 54. Brazil & Argentina Ending Stocks Local Marketing Years 14 Argentina 12 Brazil Local marketing years ending early 2013 10 8 mmt 6 4 2 0 This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 55. Stocks/Use 30% Exporters Stocks/Use- Local World Aggregate 25% 20% 15% MY ended fall 2013 U.S., and spring 2014 S.A. 10% 5% 0% This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 56. Stocks-to-Use Ratio Local Marketing Year 16% Argentina Brazil 14% Any additional production losses will come out of use in Brazil; Argentina could maintain current export projection without making a 12% new low in the ratio. 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 57. Area Harvested 30 Brazil Argentina 27.5 25.0 25 22.9 22.2 23.5 24.2 21.5 21.7 20.7 21.3 19.5 20 18.4 18.6 18.3 17.6 16.4 16.3 16.4 16.0 million ha 15.2 15 13.0 12.9 13.6 13.9 14.0 14.4 12.6 11.4 10.4 10 8.2 8.6 7.0 5 0 This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 58. Soybean Yield 49 Argentina Brazil Linear (Argentina) Linear (Brazil) 46.3 44.6 43.7 44 42.2 41.9 42.442.6 44.5 43.6 39.6 39.6 39.6 41.7 41.9 42.0 37.9 38.1 41.2 39 37.2 40.3 39.7 39.6 39.8 36.1 39.1 bpa 35.2 34.4 34.4 33.032.8 36.436.7 34 36.035.2 32.1 31.5 35.1 34.434.1 33.9 29.6 32.6 29 31.0 29.7 24.0 26.9 24 1991/92 1992/93 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 1990/91 1993/94 1997/98 2001/02 2005/06 2009/10 This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 59. Production: Brazil & Argentina Brazil Argentina 160 Crop estimates are coming in as low as 45 mmt for Argentina and 65 mmt for 140 Brazil. 120 mmt 54.0 100 54.5 49.0 48.8 46.2 40.1 80 40.5 35.5 39.0 32.0 33.0 60 30.0 27.8 40 75.3 82.5 61.0 69.0 66.5 52.0 51.0 53.0 57.0 59.0 57.8 20 39.5 43.5 0 This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 60. World Import Demand Rest of World China 120 100 80 mmtr 60 40 20 0 1990/91 1992/93 1994/95 1995/96 1997/98 1999/00 2000/01 2002/03 2004/05 2005/06 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2012/13 1991/92 1993/94 1996/97 1998/99 2001/02 2003/04 2006/07 2011/12 This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 61. Chinese Crush Margins 800 600 400 200 CNY/tonne 0 -200 -400 -600 -800 -1000 This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 62. Chinese Soybean Imports 7 6 5 2007/08 4 2008/09 mmt 3 2009/10 2010/11 2 2011/12 1 2012/13 0 This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 63. Brazil Soybean Exports 7 6 5 mmt 4 2011 2012 3 2013 2 1 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 64. U.S. Balance Sheet This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 65. NOPA Crush 170 2009/10 2010/11 160 2011/12 2012/13 150 140 mb 130 120 Unadjusted for April 2011 110 membership change December was up 10% y/y. 100 This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 66. Quarterly Crush Y/Y Assumptions: Q1 +10% 600 Q2+2% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q3 -7% Q4 -28% 500 467 459 451 442 445 443 420 412 400 mb 300 200 100 0 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 67. U.S. Bean Export Commitments 1800 1600 1400 1200 million bushels 1000 12/13 exports were unchanged at 800 1,345 mb. 600 400 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 200 2012/13 0 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 68. Export Commitments: % of Final Soybeans 120% 2012/13 5-yr average 100% 80% 1,345 is consistent with the pace from 2010/11. 60% 40% 20% 0% This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 69. Export Commitments: % of Final Soybean Oil 2012/13 5-yr avg. 120% 100% 80% 60% Oil exports were raised by 350 million pounds. Commitments are now 69% of 40% the projected total, ahead of the average of 39% for this date. 20% 0% This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 70. Export Commitments: % of Final Soybean Meal 2012/13 5-yr avg 120% 100% 80% 60% Meal export s were unchanged on the 40% January report. 20% 0% This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 71. Source: U of Illinois This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 72. Source: U of Illinois, OPIS This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 73. Soy Oil Use Soyoil use for biodiesel Estimate of soyoil use required to meet RFS2 biodiesel mandate (calendar 6000 year) If biodiesel production is 1.83 billion gallons, calendar 2013 soy 5000 oil use is estimated at 6,241 4000 million pounds 3000 2000 1000 0 This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.