The document summarizes a producer meeting held on January 25th 2013 about risk management in an uncertain environment. The agenda included presentations on disaster payments, commodity markets, hedging scenarios using different price assumptions, crop insurance, petroleum, and farm insurance. Kurt Legred from CHS then discussed broad commodity markets and how grain trading has become global. Charts on various commodity indexes and prices were presented.
8. CHS Hedging
January 25th, 2013
Harvest Land
Kurt Legred
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
9. Grain Trade has become a Global Exercise
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
10. CRB- old and new
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
11. Reuters CRB Index
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
12. Weekly Continuous Commodity Index
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
13. Weekly Baltic Dry Freight Index
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
14. Weekly U.S. Dollar Index
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
15. Monthly U.S. Dollar Index
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
16. Weekly Crude Oil Futures on CME
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a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
17. Monthly Crude Oil Futures on the CME
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a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
18. US Corn
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
19. Corn Outlook
• USDA raised the planted acres……lowered harvested acres slightly
• The yield was raised 1.1 bushel per acre…..
• Feed & Residual saw a healthy 300 million bushel increase while exports
were reduced 200 million bushels
• 2012-13 exports are down 593 million bushels from 2011-12 marketing
year
• Ending stocks are at 602 million bushels, down 45 million bushels
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
20. US Corn Supply/Demand Balance Table
Estimate
00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13
Planted Acres 79.6 75.7 78.9 78.6 80.9 81.8 78.3 93.5 86.0 86.4 88.2 91.9 97.2
Harvested Acres 72.4 68.8 69.3 70.9 73.6 75.1 70.6 86.5 78.6 79.5 81.4 84.0 87.4
Yield 136.9 138.2 129.3 142.2 160.4 148.0 149.1 150.7 153.9 164.7 152.8 147.2 123.4
Sep 1 Stocks 1,718 1,899 1,596 1,087 958 2,114 1,967 1,304 1,624 1,673 1,708 1,128 989
Production 9,915 9,503 8,967 10,089 11,807 11,114 10,535 13,038 12,092 13,092 12,447 12,360 10,780
Imports 7 10 14 14 11 9 12 20 14 8 28 29 100
Total Supply 11,639 11,412 10,578 11,190 12,776 13,237 12,514 14,362 13,729 14,774 14,182 13,516 11,869
Domestic Use 7,799 7,911 7,903 8,332 8,444 9,122 9,086 10,302 10,198 11,079 11,220 10,985 10,317
Exports 1,941 1,905 1,588 1,900 1,818 2,147 2,125 2,436 1,858 1,987 1,835 1,543 950
Ethanol 628 706 996 1,168 1,323 1,603 2,117 3,026 3,677 4,568 5,021 5,011 4,500
Total Use 9,740 9,815 9,491 10,232 10,662 11,270 11,210 12,737 12,056 13,066 13,055 12,527 11,267
Aug 31 Carryout 1,899 1,596 1,087 958 2,114 1,967 1,304 1,624 1,673 1,708 1,128 989 602
Stocks to Use 19.5% 16.3% 11.5% 9.4% 19.8% 17.5% 11.6% 12.8% 13.9% 13.1% 8.6% 7.9% 5.3%
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
21. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
22. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
23. US Corn Planted Acres
120.0
97.2
100.0
93.5 91.9
86.0 86.4 88.2
78.9 80.9 81.8
80.0
79.6 78.6 78.3
75.7
Milion Acres
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0
00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10/11 11-12 12-13
Year
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
24. US Corn Harvested Acres
100.0
86.5 87.4
90.0
81.4 84.0
79.5
80.0 78.6
72.4 73.6 75.1
69.3 70.9 70.6
70.0 68.8
60.0
Million Acres
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10/11 11-12 12-13 E
Year
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
25. US Corn Yield
180.0
160.4 152.8
153.9
160.0
149.1 147.2
164.7
140.0
136.9 129.3 150.7
148.0
138.2 142.2
120.0
123.4
Bushels Per Acre
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0
00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10/11 11-12 12-13 E
Year
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
26. US Corn Production
14000
13038 13092
12447 12360
12092
12000 11807
11114
10535 10780
9915 9503 10089
10000 8967
Million Bushels
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10/11 11-12 12-13 E
Year
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
27. US Corn FSI Usage
7000
6428 6437
5939 5867
6000
4953
5000
4363
Million Bushels
4000
3488
2981
3000 2686
2537
2340
1957 2047
2000
1000
0
00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10/11 11-12 12-13 E
Year
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
28. US Corn Feed Usage
7000
6158 6141 5938
5842 5864 5795
6000
5563 5598
5246 5140
4793
5000
4548 4450
Million Bushels
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10/11 11-12 12-13 E
Year
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
29. US Corn Domestic Use
12000
11079 11220 10985
10302 10198 10317
10000
9122 9086
8844
8332
7911 7903
8000 7799
Million Bushels
6000
4000
2000
0
00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10/11 11-12 12-13 E
Year
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
30. US Corn Exports
3000
2500 2436
2147 2125
2000 1941 1905 1900 1987
1818 1858 1835
Million Bushels
1588
1543
1500
1000
950
500
0
00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10/11 11-12E 12-13 E
Year
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
31. US Corn Used For Ethanol
6000
5021 5011
5000
4568 4500
4000
3677
Million Bushels
3026
3000
2117
2000
1603
1168 1323
995
1000 706
628
0
00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10/11 11-12 12-13 E
Year
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
32. US Corn Ending Stocks
2500
2114
2000
1967
1899
1673 1708
1596 1624
1500
Million Bushels
1304
1087 1128
1000
958 989
602
500
0
00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10/11 11-12 12-13 E
Year
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
33. US Corn Stocks To Use Ratio
25.0%
19.5% 19.8%
20.0%
17.5%
16.3%
15.0%
13.9%
12.8% 13.1%
Percent
11.6%
11.5%
9.4%
10.0%
8.6%
7.9%
5.3%
5.0%
0.0%
00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10/11 11-12 12-13 E
Year
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
34. World Corn Outlook
• World production was increased 3.21 million tonnes to 852.30
million tonnes
• Brazil production was increased 1.0 million tonnes to 71.0
million tonnes
• FSU corn production was reduced ½ a million to 31.76 million
tonnes
• World ending stocks were lowered 1.62 million tonnes
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
35. World Corn Production & Ending Stocks
1000
884
900
832 852
799 819
792
800
713 697 712
700
589 602 623
599
600
Million Tonnes
500
400
300
200
171
148 131 130 149 144 132
125 125 109 127 116
100 104
0
00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 E
Year
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a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
36. 25%
World Corn Stocks to Use
20%
19%
18%
15%
15% 15%
13%
10%
5%
0%
08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 E
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
37. China Corn Production & Exports
250.0
208.0
192.8
200.0
177.3
165.9 164.0
151.6 152.3
150.0
130.3 139.4
Million Tonnes
121.3
114.0 115.8
106.0
100.0
50.0
15.2
7.3 8.6 7.6 7.6 3.7 5.3
0.0 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2
00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 E
Year
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
38. Argentine Corn Production & Exports
30.0 28.0
25.2
25.0
23.3
22.5 22.0
20.5 21.0
20.0
19.5
Million Tonnes
15.8 17.5
15.4 15.5 15.0 15.5 16.5 16.4
14.7 15.3
15.0 14.8
14.6
10.8 11.2 10.9
10.0 10.3
9.7 9.5
5.0
0.0
00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 E
Year
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
39. Brazil Corn Production & Exports
80.0
73.0
71.0
70.0
60.0 58.6 56.1 57.4
51.0 51.0
50.0 47.6
41.7
Million Tonnes
41.5 42.8
40.0
35.5 35.0
30.0
20.0
21.5
17.5
10.0 10.8 11.6
7.8 7.1 8.4
6.5 5.2 4.1 4.5
1.9 0.7
0.0
00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 E
Year
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
40. South Africa Corn Production & Exports
16.0
14.0 13.5
13.2 13.4
12.6 12.4
12.0 11.7
10.9
10.1 9.7
10.0 9.7
Million Tonnes
8.0
8.0
6.9 7.3
6.0
4.0
2.5 2.5
2.0 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.0
1.7
1.3 1.1 1.1
0.7 0.6 0.5
0.0
00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 E
Year
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
41. Annual Corn Use Implied by Weekly Ethanol
Production
4620
4600
Cumulative average is at 4541 mb.
4580
4560
mb corn use
4540
4520
4500
4480
4460 USDA est.
4440
4420
Dec 07
Dec 14
Dec 21
Dec 28
Oct 05
Oct 12
Oct 19
Oct 26
Jan 04
Sep 07
Sep 14
Sep 21
Sep 28
Nov 02
Nov 09
Nov 16
Nov 23
Nov 30
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
42. CBOT July 1996 Corn Futures versus
CBOT December 1996 Corn Futures
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
43. CME July 2013 Corn Futures versus
Dec. 2013 Corn Futures
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
44. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
45. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
46. CME Nearby Monthly Corn Futures
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a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
47. CME March 2013 Corn Futures
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a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
48. CME July 2013 Corn Futures
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a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
49. CME December 2013 Corn Futures
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a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
50. Soybeans
• WORLD SUPPLY/DEMAND
• US BALANCE SHEET
• PRICES
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a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
51. World Situation
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a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
52. Local Marketing Years
September 1, August 31,
2012 2013
U.S.
April 1, 2013
Argentina
March 31,
2014
Feb. 1, 2013
Brazil
Jan. 31, 2014
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a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
53. World Soybean Stocks
80
Exporter Stocks- Local
70 Marketing Years
World Stocks
60
50
mmt
40
30
20
10
0
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a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
54. Brazil & Argentina Ending Stocks
Local Marketing Years
14
Argentina
12
Brazil Local marketing years ending
early 2013
10
8
mmt
6
4
2
0
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a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
55. Stocks/Use
30%
Exporters Stocks/Use- Local World Aggregate
25%
20%
15%
MY ended fall 2013 U.S.,
and spring 2014 S.A.
10%
5%
0%
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a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
56. Stocks-to-Use Ratio
Local Marketing Year
16%
Argentina Brazil
14% Any additional production losses will come
out of use in Brazil; Argentina could maintain
current export projection without making a
12% new low in the ratio.
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
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a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
57. Area Harvested
30
Brazil Argentina 27.5
25.0
25 22.9 22.2 23.5 24.2
21.5 21.7
20.7 21.3
19.5
20 18.4 18.6 18.3
17.6
16.4 16.3 16.4 16.0
million ha
15.2
15 13.0 12.9 13.6 13.9 14.0 14.4
12.6
11.4
10.4
10 8.2 8.6
7.0
5
0
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a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
58. Soybean Yield
49 Argentina Brazil Linear (Argentina) Linear (Brazil)
46.3
44.6
43.7
44 42.2 41.9 42.442.6
44.5
43.6
39.6 39.6 39.6
41.7 41.9 42.0
37.9 38.1 41.2
39 37.2 40.3
39.7 39.6 39.8
36.1 39.1
bpa
35.2
34.4 34.4
33.032.8 36.436.7
34 36.035.2 32.1
31.5 35.1
34.434.1 33.9
29.6 32.6
29 31.0
29.7
24.0 26.9
24
1991/92
1992/93
1994/95
1995/96
1996/97
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
1990/91
1993/94
1997/98
2001/02
2005/06
2009/10
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a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
59. Production: Brazil & Argentina
Brazil Argentina
160 Crop estimates are coming in as low as
45 mmt for Argentina and 65 mmt for
140 Brazil.
120
mmt
54.0
100 54.5 49.0
48.8 46.2 40.1
80 40.5
35.5 39.0 32.0
33.0
60 30.0
27.8
40 75.3 82.5
61.0 69.0 66.5
52.0 51.0 53.0 57.0 59.0 57.8
20 39.5 43.5
0
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a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
60. World Import Demand
Rest of World China
120
100
80
mmtr
60
40
20
0
1990/91
1992/93
1994/95
1995/96
1997/98
1999/00
2000/01
2002/03
2004/05
2005/06
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
2012/13
1991/92
1993/94
1996/97
1998/99
2001/02
2003/04
2006/07
2011/12
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
61. Chinese Crush Margins
800
600
400
200
CNY/tonne
0
-200
-400
-600
-800
-1000
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a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
62. Chinese Soybean Imports
7
6
5
2007/08
4
2008/09
mmt
3 2009/10
2010/11
2
2011/12
1 2012/13
0
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered
a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
63. Brazil Soybean Exports
7
6
5
mmt
4 2011
2012
3
2013
2
1
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
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a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
64. U.S. Balance Sheet
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a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
65. NOPA Crush
170
2009/10 2010/11
160
2011/12 2012/13
150
140
mb
130
120
Unadjusted for April 2011
110 membership change December was up 10% y/y.
100
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a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
66. Quarterly Crush
Y/Y Assumptions:
Q1 +10%
600 Q2+2%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q3 -7%
Q4 -28%
500 467
459 451
442 445 443
420 412
400
mb
300
200
100
0
2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13
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a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading
commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
67. U.S. Bean Export Commitments
1800
1600
1400
1200
million bushels
1000
12/13 exports were unchanged at
800 1,345 mb.
600
400
2008/09 2009/10
2010/11 2011/12
200
2012/13
0
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
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a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
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68. Export Commitments: % of Final
Soybeans
120%
2012/13
5-yr average
100%
80% 1,345 is consistent with the pace from
2010/11.
60%
40%
20%
0%
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a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
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69. Export Commitments: % of Final
Soybean Oil
2012/13 5-yr avg.
120%
100%
80%
60%
Oil exports were raised by 350 million
pounds. Commitments are now 69% of
40% the projected total, ahead of the average
of 39% for this date.
20%
0%
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a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
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70. Export Commitments: % of Final
Soybean Meal
2012/13 5-yr avg
120%
100%
80%
60%
Meal export s were unchanged on the
40% January report.
20%
0%
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a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
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71. Source: U of Illinois
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a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
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72. Source: U of Illinois, OPIS
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a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not
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73. Soy Oil Use
Soyoil use for biodiesel
Estimate of soyoil use required to meet RFS2 biodiesel mandate (calendar
6000 year) If biodiesel production is 1.83
billion gallons, calendar 2013 soy
5000 oil use is estimated at 6,241
4000
million pounds
3000
2000
1000
0
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