2. Money Needs for Fundamental Stages of Life Children College Grandchildren Medical Care Home Retirement Travel/Vacation Long-term Care $1,000,000 to $2,000,000 $2,000,000 for 5,000/mo. $400,000 to $500,000
3. Bubble and Burst 30-year track record! 1980 Gold Bubble Bursts 1982 Mexican Bond/Debt Market Burst 1990 Japanese Stocks Burst 1987 Black Monday 1994 Latin America Debt Burst 1992 Scandinavian Bank Stocks Burst 2000 Internet Bubble Burst/ Dotcom Meltdown 2006 US Mortgage-backed Bonds Started to Burst 2007 “Shangai Surprise” Chinese Stock Market Burst 2009 Bust, not just a Burst of global retirement assets 2009 Banking Bubble Burst with Bailouts 2010 May of 2010… the “Fat Finger Mistake”
4. Getting Back to the Basics History has shown that Real Asset Growth is gained through holding Real Estate. … not the value of the house.
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6. Perception vs. Reality Land continues to appreciate, while your house continues to depreciate! Note: Average market values from Santa Clara County Assessors Office If in 1978, you had purchased a home in Silicon Valley or Orange County for $60,000, the land would have been valued at about $9,000 and the house at $51,000. $9,000 1978 $60,000 85% $210,000 1993 $300,000 30% $514,000 2010 $650,000 21%
7. What is Land Banking? Land Banking is the time-tested Wealth Building Strategy of: Selling it for a significant profit in the future. Waiting for its value to mature. Acquiring select pre-developed land in the growth path of a major metropolitan center.
8. The Principle of Supply and Demand TIME Undeveloped Pre-developed Developed LAND VALUE Buy LOW Sell HIGH The key is to:
9. The Principle of Supply and Demand TIME LAND VALUE Pre-developed Developed Undeveloped
13. The Perfect 10! Northern Los Angeles County The Los Angeles Megalopolis: Includes parts of Los Angeles, Ventura, Kern, San Bernardino, and Riverside counties. It is a 60-mile radius and an economic giant of domestic and international significance. Again, it’s about LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION!
15. 10 Key Indicators That Make Land Valuable Level, Usable Land Level, Usable Land The Greater Antelope Valley covers approx. 3,000 square miles. Predominantly flat with elevations 2,400 to 3,200 feet above sea level. The Valley’s floor is prime for commercial and residential development. 1
16. 10 Key Indicators That Make Land Valuable Level, Usable Land Abundant Water Supply 1 2
17. 10 Key Indicators That Make Land Valuable Groundwater is stored in the Antelope Valley Groundwater Basin. The primary source of surface water is the Littlerock Reservoir. The imported surface water arrives from the State Water Project. Level, Usable Land Abundant Water Supply Abundant Water Supply 1 2
18. 10 Key Indicators That Make Land Valuable Level, Usable Land Abundant Water Supply Accessible by Planes, Trains, and Automobiles 1 2 3
19. 10 Key Indicators That Make Land Valuable Level, Usable Land Accessible by Planes, Trains, and Automobiles Abundant Water Supply Accessible by Planes, Trains, and Automobiles The Antelope Valley Transit Authority offers numerous bus routes. Rail service includes the Metrolink, with three Antelope Valley stations. Travel by airplane is facilitated by private and commercial airports. 1 2 3
21. 10 Key Indicators That Make Land Valuable Level, Usable Land Abundant Water Supply Accessible by Planes, Trains, and Automobiles Adequate Utilities for Massive Growth 1 2 3 4
22. 10 Key Indicators That Make Land Valuable Level, Usable Land Adequate Utilities for Massive Growth Abundant Water Supply Accessible by Planes, Trains, and Automobiles Adequate Utilities for Massive Growth Electricity is provided by Southern California Edison Company. eSolar and SCE are developing one of the largest U.S. solar plants. A 245-megawatt solar plant on 1,100 acres will power over 50,000 homes. 1 2 3 4
23. 10 Key Indicators That Make Land Valuable Level, Usable Land Abundant Water Supply Accessible by Planes, Trains, and Automobiles Adequate Utilities for Massive Growth Ample Educational Facilities: Preschool to College Level 1 2 3 4 5
24. 10 Key Indicators That Make Land Valuable Level, Usable Land Ample Educational Facilities: Preschool to College Level Abundant Water Supply Accessible by Planes, Trains, and Automobiles Adequate Utilities for Massive Growth Ample Educational Facilities: Preschool to College Level Eight school districts manage 74 elementary and middle schools. The AV Union High School District serves 20 high schools. The University of Antelope Valley serves 15,500 students. 1 2 3 4 5
25. 10 Key Indicators That Make Land Valuable Level, Usable Land Abundant Water Supply Accessible by Planes, Trains, and Automobiles Adequate Utilities for Massive Growth Ample Educational Facilities: Preschool to College Level Close Proximity to Major Metropolis 1 2 3 4 5 6
26. 10 Key Indicators That Make Land Valuable Close Proximity to Major Metropolis Abundant Water Supply Accessible by Planes, Trains, and Automobiles Adequate Utilities for Massive Growth Ample Educational Facilities: Preschool to College Level Lancaster and Palmdale are located within the County of Los Angeles. The County of Los Angeles is the most populous county in Calif. 45 minutes away, Los Angeles is the most populous city in Calif. Level, Usable Land Close Proximity to Major Metropolis 1 2 3 4 5 6
27. 10 Key Indicators That Make Land Valuable Level, Usable Land Abundant Water Supply Accessible by Planes, Trains, and Automobiles Adequate Utilities for Massive Growth Ample Educational Facilities: Preschool to College Level Close Proximity to Major Metropolis Prime Growth Industries in Place and Expanding 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
28. 10 Key Indicators That Make Land Valuable Prime Growth Industries in Place and Expanding Accessible by Planes, Trains, and Automobiles Adequate Utilities for Massive Growth Ample Educational Facilities: Preschool to College Level The largest industry in the Antelope Valley is the aerospace industry. The largest single employer in the Valley is Edwards Air Force Base. Other important industries include renewable energy, health care, retail, & more. Abundant Water Supply Prime Growth Industries in Place and Expanding Level, Usable Land Close Proximity to Major Metropolis 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
29. 10 Key Indicators That Make Land Valuable Level, Usable Land Abundant Water Supply Accessible by Planes, Trains, and Automobiles Adequate Utilities for Massive Growth Ample Educational Facilities: Preschool to College Level Close Proximity to Major Metropolis Prime Growth Industries in Place and Expanding Huge Commercial and Residential Development 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
30. 10 Key Indicators That Make Land Valuable Huge Commercial and Residential Development Adequate Utilities for Massive Growth Ample Educational Facilities: Preschool to College Level Existing commercial and residential developments include numerous business parks, shopping centers, and planned communities in Lancaster and Palmdale. Level, Usable Land Close Proximity to Major Metropolis 1 4 5 6 Accessible by Planes, Trains, and Automobiles Huge Commercial and Residential Development Abundant Water Supply Prime Growth Industries in Place and Expanding 2 7 8 3
31. 10 Key Indicators That Make Land Valuable Level, Usable Land Abundant Water Supply Accessible by Planes, Trains, and Automobiles Adequate Utilities for Massive Growth Ample Educational Facilities: Preschool to College Level Close Proximity to Major Metropolis Prime Growth Industries in Place and Expanding Huge Commercial and Residential Development Studies Projecting Healthy Population Growth 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
32. 10 Key Indicators That Make Land Valuable Studies Projecting Healthy Population Growth Ample Educational Facilities: Preschool to College Level There are two major sources for population projections and studies: The U.S. Census Bureau and the Greater Antelope Valley Economic Alliance (GAVEA). Only North LA County Plans for TRIPLE DIGIT (193.4%) Population Growth. Level, Usable Land Close Proximity to Major Metropolis 1 5 6 Accessible by Planes, Trains, and Automobiles Huge Commercial and Residential Development Abundant Water Supply Prime Growth Industries in Place and Expanding 2 7 Adequate Utilities for Massive Growth Studies Projecting Healthy Population Growth 9 4 3 8
33. 10 Key Indicators That Make Land Valuable Studies Projecting Healthy Population Growth There are two major sources for population projections and studies: The U.S. Census Bureau and the Greater Antelope Valley Economic Alliance (GAVEA). Only North LA County Expects TRIPLE DIGIT (202.9%) New Home Construction. 9
34. 10 Key Indicators That Make Land Valuable Level, Usable Land Abundant Water Supply Accessible by Planes, Trains, and Automobiles Adequate Utilities for Massive Growth Ample Educational Facilities: Preschool to College Level Close Proximity to Major Metropolis Prime Growth Industries in Place and Expanding Huge Commercial and Residential Development Studies Projecting Healthy Population Growth Regional Master Plan for Community and Municipal Infrastructure 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
35. 10 Key Indicators That Make Land Valuable Regional Master Plan for Community and Municipal Infrastructure The General Plan serves as a basis for planning land use, transportation routes, population growth and distribution, air and water quality, noise impacts, safety issues, and other factors. Level, Usable Land Close Proximity to Major Metropolis 1 6 Accessible by Planes, Trains, and Automobiles Huge Commercial and Residential Development Abundant Water Supply Prime Growth Industries in Place and Expanding 2 7 Adequate Utilities for Massive Growth Studies Projecting Healthy Population Growth 9 4 3 8 Ample Educational Facilities: Preschool to College Level Regional Master Plan for Community and Municipal Infrastructure 5 10
36. 10 Key Indicators That Make Land Valuable Level, Usable Land Close Proximity to Major Metropolis 1 6 Accessible by Planes, Trains, and Automobiles Huge Commercial and Residential Development Abundant Water Supply Prime Growth Industries in Place and Expanding 2 7 Adequate Utilities for Massive Growth Studies Projecting Healthy Population Growth 9 4 3 8 Ample Educational Facilities: Preschool to College Level Regional Master Plan for Community and Municipal Infrastructure 5 10 Creates the Ideal Land Banking Parcels
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38. Antelope Valley In 1978 the population in Antelope Valley was approximately 95,000. Currently the population in Antelope Valley is approximately 500,000. With thousands of new affordable homes and commercial developments. 1952 1965 1969 1978 1985 1989 2010
39. Supply Samples Avenue F Avenue E 80 th St W 70 th St W 90 th St W APN: 3201-001-016 $27,341.77/acre APN: 3220-011-025 $29,303.48/acre APN: 3219-006-006 $25,510.20/acre APN: 3268-001-037 $27,358.49/acre APN: 3268-006-065 $20,000.00/acre Subject APN: 3220-010-010 $18,000.00/acre
40. Supply Samples Palmdale Blvd Avenue Q 15 th St E 25 th St E 20 th St E Subject APN: 3015-016-018 $53,454.07/acre APN: 3015-015-019 $90,476.19/acre APN: 3015-017-004 $68,382.94/acre APN: 3018-021-006 $75,471.70/acre APN: 3015-011-011 $94,202.90/acre
Those who travel in life are PASSENGERS. Those who are going somewhere are DRIVERS. The following is for DRIVERS – the Right Choice: Smart Money for Life
30 years ago, $60,000 would have bought you a nice house in Silicon Valley or Orange County. Today, that same house sells for around $650,000. That’s over 10 times the original Purchase Price (an 8.2% compounded Annual Return).
Concept ... Demand in place
Located at the southwest edge of the Mojave Desert where it is bordered by the San Gabriel Mountains to the south and the Tehachapi Mountains to the north, the Antelope Valley covers an area of approximately 3,000 square miles. The Valley is predominantly flat and considered to be a high desert with elevations between 2,300 and 2,400 feet above sea level. The floor of the Valley is very flat with only a few rock outcroppings called buttes and is prime for both commercial and residential development.
The primary sources of water are: groundwater, surface water, and imported surface water. Groundwater is the primary source of water in the Antelope Valley. Prior to 1972, it provided more than 90 percent of the total water supply; after 1972, it provided between 50 and 90 percent. Groundwater is stored in the Antelope Valley Groundwater Basin and has an estimated capacity of 68 million acre-feet with a recharge rate of 31,200 to 80,400 acre-feet per year. The primary source of surface water is the Littlerock Reservoir with a capacity of 3,500 acre feet. The imported surface water arrives from the State Water Project (also known as the California Aqueduct). From the SWP, the Antelope Valley-East Kern Water Agency is contracted to deliver 160,000 acre-feet per year to the Antelope Valley.
In addition to the amazing California High Speed Rail service approved for construction in Antelope Valley, the area currently boasts several major highways and freeways for autos, buses, and trucks… with continuing development of a very efficient highway and surface street infrastructure. For commuters without access to an automobile, the Antelope Valley Transit Authority features the combined efforts of Lancaster, Palmdale, and Los Angeles County by offering numerous bus routes covering most of the Valley. Rail service includes the Metrolink, Southern California’s regional commuter rail service with three stations in Antelope Valley – Lancaster, Palmdale, and Acton – all of which connect to the LA Union Station. Travel by airplane is facilitated by small, private airports and large, commercial airports including General William J. Fox Field and the LA/Palmdale Regional Airport.
Electricity in the Antelope Valley is provided by Southern California Edison Company. eSolar and SCE have partnered in developing one of the largest solar plants in the country, currently powering over 4,000 homes. In addition, SCE is constructing a 245 megawatt solar plant on 1,100 acres that will power over 50,000 homes.
The Antelope Valley has a well established public education system from elementary school through college. At the college level, the Antelope Valley College serves 15,500 students, it is accredited by the Accrediting Commission for Community and Junior Colleges of the Western Association of Schools and Colleges, and offers many associate degree programs like a registered nursing program, an airframe and power plant technician program, and an engineering program. At the high school level, the Antelope Valley Union High School District provides high school education to Lancaster and Palmdale and the surrounding unincorporated areas of Los Angeles County. At the elementary and junior high school levels, eight different school districts manage over 50 elementary and junior high schools.
Lancaster and Palmdale are located within the County of Los Angeles, the most populous county in California, and they are within 45 miles of the City of Los Angeles, the most populous city in California
The largest industry in the Antelope Valley is the aerospace industry and the largest single employer in the Valley is Edwards Air Force Base. Other important industries include renewable energy, retail, hospitality, heath care and social assistance, and local government.
Existing commercial and residential developments include numerous business parks, shopping centers, and planned communities in Lancaster and Palmdale:
There are two major sources for population projections and studies: the US Census Bureau and the Greater Antelope Valley Economic Alliance (GAVEA)
There are two major sources for population projections and studies: the US Census Bureau and the Greater Antelope Valley Economic Alliance (GAVEA)
By state law, each city and county must adopt a general plan for the physical development of all lands under its jurisdiction. This plan will serve as the basis for planning land use, transportation routes, population growth and distribution, development, open space, resource preservation and utilization, air and water quality, noise impacts, safety issues and other related physical, social and economic development factors.
These are but a few of the regions in Southern California which grew at tremendous rates into unbelievable numbers. Today, there are millions of young people in our schools plus a great in-migration of people from all over the United States and the world who dream of someday making their homes and fortunes in Southern California.