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February 2012 Jobs Growth in Uniform Sectors
1. March 9, 2012 Baird Equity Research
Business Services
Facility Services
BLS Payroll Data; Still Positive for Uniform Stocks
The February BLS jobs report was as expected with uniform-wearing industry gains INDUSTRY UPDATE
continuing to outpace the broader economy, supporting recent positive trends in
Prices as of 3/8/12
uniform rental stocks. Add/Stop employment (traditional uniform wearing-industries)
Mkt Cap
gains remain consistent with prior mid-cycle recovery levels (e.g., mid-late Ticker Price Rating Risk
(mil)
1990s/2004-2006) with YTD employment gains near the high end of prior growth cycles. CTAS $39.26 $5,092 O A
While we have been clear to recognize the sector's recent stock performance, we continue
GKSR $32.65 $611 O A
to view the data as supportive of a modestly overweight portfolio.
UNF $58.96 $1,156 O A
Baird covered companies
s Payrolls meet healthy expectations. February payrolls met strong expectations,
increasing by 227,000, above the +210,000 consensus, suggesting sustainability after
three sequential months of 200,000+ gains. The YOY change in employment increased
+1.55% (highest rate this cycle) with the unemployment rate holding constant at 8.3%
(as expected). We note particular strength in professional and business services
(+82,000), education and health (+71,000) and leisure and hospitality (+44,000).
Manufacturing employment also continues to outpace the broader economy (+1.9%
YOY).
s Uniform-related employment growth near high end of previous growth cycles.
Baird's Add/Stop Employment Index specific to uniform rental-related employment
remains healthy, increasing by 59,000, with an additional 14,000 wearers added through
previous data revisions. While the monthly gain is below last month's exceptionally
strong read (+96,000, revised), average gains over the past three months (+81,000) are
consistent with high-end growth rates of prior mid-cycle recovery levels (e.g., mid-late
1990s / 2004-2006). Stable organic growth is realized when the Baird index is in the
50-70k jobs range.
s Remain modestly overweight in uniform stocks. Add/Stops are now becoming a
greater contributor to overall growth rates and our recent conversations with both public
and private uniform providers suggest prior pricing initiatives have been maintained,
reducing a long-time headwind for the industry. We continue to view uniform stocks
positively, with conservatively set guidance providing a pathway to upwardly biased
earnings revisions; nonetheless, we expect alpha generation likely to be more modest
than 2011's gains.
s G&K (Outperform): We continue to see opportunity through progress on
management's turnaround strategy. We suggest investors focus on EBITDA margin
expansion and long-term earnings power, supported by GKSR's cash flow and balance
sheet.
s Cintas (Outperform): Recent performance has been strong, though more difficult
comps are approaching. We still see opportunities across CTAS's business (particularly
beyond garment rental) and cite likely upside to conservatively set guidance.
s UniFirst (Outperform): UniFirst continues to execute above peers, suggesting share
gains. Although rising merchandise costs have pressured earnings, we believe
opportunities for balance sheet deployment provide a potential catalyst.
[ Please refer to Appendix
- Important Disclosures
and Analyst Certification ]
Andrew J. Wittmann, CFA Justin P Hauke
.
awittmann@rwbaird.com jhauke@rwbaird.com
414.298.1898 314.445.6519
2. March 9, 2012 | Facility Services
Details
Employment Trends Remain Conducive to an Overweight Uniform
Portfolio
The February BLS jobs report was as expected with uniform-wearing industry gains continuing to
outpace the broader economy, supporting recent organic growth trends and operating leverage at
uniform rental companies. Add/Stop employment (traditional uniform wearing-industries) gains remain
consistent with prior mid-cycle recovery levels (e.g., mid-late 1990s/2004-2006) with YTD employment
gains near the high-end of prior growth cycles. While we have been clear to recognize the sector's
recent stock performance, we continue to view the data as supportive of a modestly overweight portfolio.
Our primary basis for sector recommendation at this point remains upwardly biased estimates,
continuing recent trend (see below), as consensus expectations may still not fully appreciate
top-line momentum. We note that this has been our team's position on the group since early this year.
We previously (prior to December 2011) highlighted opportunities for both positive estimate revisions as
well as multiple expansion for the group.
Management guidance appears relatively conservative across our list, in our view, with estimates likely
biased higher at least over the near-term. Indeed, this has been the pattern of uniform stock
performance throughout the recovery as estimates have been slow to adjust to an improving labor
market (we note, however, that the reverse phenomenon was also apparent on the way down). The
charts below demonstrate quarterly EPS outperformance versus consensus at CTAS, GKSR, and UNF
over the past 10 quarters.
Cintas Corp. Quarterly EPS vs. Consensus
$0.60
Consensus
$0.50 Actual
$0.40
$0.30
$0.20
$0.10
$0.00
F1Q10 F2Q10 F3Q10 F4Q10 F1Q11 F2Q11 F3Q11 F4Q11 F1Q12 F2Q12
Source: Company reports
Robert W. Baird & Co. 2
3. March 9, 2012 | Facility Services
G&K Services Quarterly EPS vs. Consensus
$0.60
Consensus
$0.50 Actual
$0.40
$0.30
$0.20
$0.10
$0.00
F1Q10 F2Q10 F3Q10 F4Q10 F1Q11 F2Q11 F3Q11 F4Q11 F1Q12 F2Q12
Source: Company reports
UniFirst Quarterly EPS vs. Consensus
$1.40
Consensus
$1.20
Actual
$1.00
$0.80
$0.60
$0.40
$0.20
$0.00
F1Q09 F2Q09 F3Q09 F4Q09 F1Q10 F2Q10 F3Q10 F4Q10 F1Q11 F2Q11 F3Q11 F4Q11 F1Q12
Source: Company reports
The uniform stocks were strong alpha generators in 2011 and have continued to outperform in 2012.
Previous stock performance was driven largely by cyclical momentum (both revenue and margins) on
previously low expectations. Recently the “buy USA” trade has brought new interest to uniform rental
companies, in our view. Cintas (CTAS) has consistently outperformed both the group and the market
over the past year.
Robert W. Baird & Co. 3
4. March 9, 2012 | Facility Services
Uniform Stock Performance
One-Month Percentage Price Change YTD Percentage Price Change
C intas C intas
S & P 50 0 G & K S erv ices
G & K S erv ic es U niform In dex
U n iform Inde x S & P 5 00
U n iFirs t U niFirst
-6% -4 % -2% 0% 2% 4% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10 % 12% 14%
Three-Month Percentage Price Change Trailing 12 Months Percentage Price Change
C in tas C intas
U n ifo rm Index U niform Index
G & K S e rv ic es U niFirst
S & P 500 S & P 500
U niFirs t G & K S erv ic es
0% 5% 10% 15 % 20% 25% 30% 35 % 40% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 45.0%
Source: FactSet Research Systems
As noted above, we now see upwardly biased earnings revisions for the group as the primary driver of
additional alpha generation as multiples have recovered to historical (5-year) averages (in fact, a slight
premium). The group is now trading at an average forward 12-month EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.3x and
15.2x earnings, compared to average (5-year) levels of 6.9x and 15.0x. We believe multiples reflect
recent momentum, but could offer opportunity should estimates prove conservative.
Uniform Industry Valuation
EV/EBITDA, ftm P/E, ftm
Company Ticker Price Price Target Rating MktCap ($M) FTM AVG FTM AVG
Cintas CTAS $39.30 $42 O $5,098 8.3x 7.7x 16.4x 16.2x
G&K Services GKSR $32.64 $38 O $609 7.4x 7.3x 14.6x 15.9x
UniFirst UNF $59.25 $68 O $1,159 6.3x 5.7x 14.4x 13.0x
Average: 7.3x 6.9x 15.2x 15.0x
As of 03/09/2012
Source: FactSet Research Systems and Baird estimates
Facility Services Valuation, EV / EBITDA (FTM)
19.0x
17.0x 5-YR AVG
15.0x Current
14.1x
13.0x
11.0x
10.4x
9.5x
9.0x 8.9x
8.3x
7.0x 7.4x
6.3x
5.0x
3.0x
ROL ECL ABM IRM CTAS GKSR UNF
Note: The blue bars indicate FTM 5-year ranges; IRM reflects 3-year average/range
Source: FactSet Research Systems and Baird estimates
Robert W. Baird & Co. 4
5. March 9, 2012 | Facility Services
The February BLS Employment Report
The February payrolls report met strong expectations, increasing by 227,000, above the +210,000
consensus, suggesting sustainability after three sequential months of 200,000+ gains. The YOY change
in employment increased +1.55% (highest rate this cycle) with the unemployment rate holding constant
at 8.3% (as expected). We note particular strength in professional and business services (+82,000),
education and health (+71,000) and leisure and hospitality (+44,000). Manufacturing employment also
continues to outpace the broader economy (+1.9% YOY).
We note this winter's unusually warm winter weather has likely played some role in the strength of recent
data reports. Should this be the case, we would not be surprised to see some sequential moderation in
the March BLS report but expect underlying trends to remain healthy.
BLS Nonfarm Payrolls
6% 1000
800
4%
600
400
2%
200
0% 0
(200)
-2%
(400)
BLS Nonfarm Payrolls 1-month change (000s), right (600)
-4%
BLS Nonfarm Payrolls YOY Growth Rate, left
(800)
-6% (1000)
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Baird Research
Forward-looking employment indicators were little changed. Total average weekly hours held constant at
34.5 hours while wages rose slightly (+$0.03 to $23.31), +0.1% (some economists have cited worries of
wage inflation given the stronger employment environment). We also note that the ISM Manufacturing
Employment Diffusion Index remained positive in February at 53.2 (50 is a neutral rating).
ISM Manufacturing, Employment Diffusion Index
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
Jan-90 Jun-91 Nov-92 Apr-94 Sep-95 Feb-97 Jul-98 Nov-99 Apr-01 Sep-02 Feb-04 Jul-05 Nov-06 Apr-08 Sep-09 Feb-11
Note: The solid red line reflects a "neutral" reading; A reading above (below) indicates sequential improvement (deterioration)
Source: Institute for Supply Management
Robert W. Baird & Co. 5
6. March 9, 2012 | Facility Services
While the U.S. employment recovery has been slow, the pace of gains has gradually improved (in fact,
the sequential rate of employment growth over the past two months has been similar to levels in the late
1990s and relatively strong when compared across all cycles). That said, the overall trajectory of
employment growth is still well below prior post-recession recovery gains. Indeed, the figure below
shows the growth in employment (indexed at the solid black line to cycle peak employment), which
demonstrates the pronounced sluggishness of the current "recovery" but also the fact that growth rates
have, at least, become more similar (actually now exceeding) to the mid-2000s cycle (off of a lower
base).
Nonfarm Payroll Growth (indexed at month of cyclical employment peak)
115
Sep-48 Jul-53
Aug-57 Apr-60
110 Mar-70 Jul-74
Mar-80 Jul-81
Jun-90 Feb-01
105
Jan-08
100
2000-2001 Cycle
95
Current Cycle
90
-26
-24
-22
-20
-18
-16
-14
-12
-10
0
2
4
6
8
-8
-6
-4
-2
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Baird Research
Robert W. Baird & Co. 6
7. March 9, 2012 | Facility Services
Baird Add/Stop Employment Index Gains Similar to Prior Growth Cycles
Baird's Add/Stop Employment Index specific to uniform rental-related employment remains healthy,
increasing by 59,000, with an additional 14,000 wearers added through previous data revisions. While
the monthly gain is below last month's exceptionally strong read (+96,000, revised), average gains over
the past three months (+81,000) are consistent with the high-end of growth rates seen in prior recoveries
(e.g., mid-late 1990s / 2004-2006). Stable organic growth is realized when the Baird index is in the
50-70k jobs range. In 2011, the average monthly rate was 56,000, demonstrating the additional
momentum in recent months.
Baird Add/Stop Employment Index
4% 200
Average = 65k Average = 54k
2% 100
0% 0
-2% (100)
Cycle Average = 49k (since Mar 2010)
-4% 2011 Average = 56k (200)
3-Month Average = 81k
-6% Baird Add/Stop Employment Index (000s), right (300)
Baird Add/Stop Employment Index YOY Growth Rate, left
-8% (400)
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Baird Research
Baird Add/Stop Employment Index (Recent Cycle)
4% 200
Baird Add/Stop Employment Index (000s), right
2% Baird Add/Stop Employment Index YOY Growth Rate, left 100
0% 0
-2% (100)
-4% (200)
-6% (300)
-8% (400)
Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Baird Research
We continue to highlight the recent momentum in Add/Stop momentum over the past several months as
a critical dynamic to the data. Following a slowdown in employment in mid-2011, hiring appears to have
strongly recovered as we headed into the end of the year and now suggests evidence of stability. We
note that this factor also parallels the increasing role of Add/Stops as a contributor to overall organic
growth in 4Q11 at the uniform rental companies (a positive, as employee additions at existing accounts
typically carry higher incremental margins). Our conversations with industry participants at this week's
Robert W. Baird & Co. 7
8. March 9, 2012 | Facility Services
CSC Convention support this trend. We also point to higher industry growth expectations from our recent
1Q12 industry survey.
At what rate do you expect your revenue to grow excluding acquisitions in the next 12 months?"
7.0%
5.7% 5.7% 5.8% 5.9%
6.0% 5.6%
5.4% 5.3% 5.4%
5.0% 5.0% 5.1%
5.0% 4.7% 4.6% 4.5%
4.3%
3.8%
4.0%
3.3%
2.9%
3.0% 2.7%
2.3%
2.0% 1.5%
1.0%
0.3%
0.0%
0.0%
Note: Growth rates reflect average responses of survey participants
Source: Baird Research, March 2012 Uniform Rental Industry Survey
Finally, we note that the YOY growth rate in Add/Stop Index employment categories continues to
outpace the broader economy for the first time since late 2006/early 2007 (a phenomenon which has
been apparent throughout 2011, supporting alpha generation in the uniform rental stocks, in our
opinion). As we have highlighted, this has been a critical element of the data as uniform employment
lagged broader employment categories throughout the recovery until February 2011.
Total Non-Farm Employment vs. Baird Add/Stop Employment Index (YOY Change)
4.00%
BLS Total Non-Farm Employment
2.00% Baird Add/Stop Employment Index
0.00%
-2.00%
-4.00% Growth in Baird Add/Stop
Index employment
continues to outpace
-6.00% total NFP employment
-8.00%
Jan-07
Mar-07
Jul-07
Sep-07
Nov-07
Jan-08
Mar-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
May-07
May-08
May-09
May-10
May-11
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Baird Research
Uniform growth led by F&B industries, but overall trends remains positive. Most uniform verticals
comprising our Add/Stop Index posted positive growth in February, led by F&B industries, partially offset
by a decline in Machinery employment. Previously (several months ago), trends had been more mixed.
The figure below shows the absolute job gains/losses within several of the primary uniform-wearing
industries comprising our Index over the last month. We also note continued good growth in various
manufacturing verticals (which continue to outpace the broader economy).
Robert W. Baird & Co. 8
9. March 9, 2012 | Facility Services
Baird Add/Stop Employment Index Component Industries: 1-Month Employment Change (000s)
Food Services and Drinking Places 41
Food Manufacturing 11
Chemicals 10
Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers 5
Fabricated Metal Products 5
W holesale Trade - Nondurable Goods 3
Food and Beverage Stores 3
Repair and Maintenance 3
Specialty Trade Contractors 1
Truck Transportation (0)
Gasoline Stations (1)
W holesale Trade - Durable Goods (5)
Machinery (15)
1-month Employment Change (000s)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Baird Research
Add/Stop Employment historically a good predictor of uniform organic growth. Importantly we
continue to note that the YOY change in our Add/Stop Index has historically been well-correlated with
uniform rental organic growth rates, particularly at CTAS. The figure below demonstrates this
relationship. Continued momentum in employment could suggest positive bias to management guidance
at all three uniform companies, in our view.
CTAS Organic (Rental) Revenue Growth YOY vs. Baird Add/Stop Employment Index
15.0%
R² = 0.7286
10.0%
5.0%
Add/Stop Index
0.0%
-8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0%
-5.0%
-10.0%
CTAS Organic
Rental Revenue
-15.0%
Note: CTAS organic growth reflects interpolated calendar growth figures; 3Q11-4Q11 reflect Baird estimates
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Company Reports and Baird Research
Robert W. Baird & Co. 9
10. March 9, 2012 | Facility Services
Derivative Employment Data
Derivative employment data also continued to improve in February.
ADP Employment Report. The February ADP report (published 3/7) was similar to the BLS report,
suggesting continued growth modestly above consensus expectations with net job growth of 216,000
(versus the +200,000 consensus). Similar to recent months, gains were predominantly driven by small
(+108,000) and medium (+88,000) businesses as well as the service economy (+170,000) versus
goods-producing (+46,000) industries. Large firm (+500 employees or more) employment continues to
hold relatively flat, which may suggest hiring has come primarily through attrition. Manufacturing
employment grew by 21,000, its fourth consecutive month of positive gains and the largest 1-month job
gain in nearly a year.
Recall, that the ADP report tracks private payroll only and is based on actual payroll receipts received by
ADP as opposed to the survey/model-driven BLS report, which may suggest that ADP provides a better
,
gauge of actual employment conditions.
Total Nonfarm Private Payrols, by Firm Size (000s)
400 117,000
200
115,000
-
113,000
(200)
111,000
(400)
Large Firms (499+), MoM Change
Medium Firms (50-499), MoM Change 109,000
(600) Small Firms (1-49), MoM Change
Total Employment, (right)
107,000
(800)
(1,000) 105,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: ADP Employment Report
Initial Jobless Claims. Initial jobless claims continued to improve in February and are now near
350,000/week, well below the critical 400,000 level consistent with a declining unemployment rate. The
4-week moving average is currently at 354,250 versus 374,000 as of 12/31/11 (see figure below).
Robert W. Baird & Co. 10
11. March 9, 2012 | Facility Services
Initial Jobless Claims
700,000
650,000
600,000
550,000
500,000
450,000
400,000
350,000
300,000
Claims below
250,000 400,000 since
November 2011
200,000
150,000
Jan-67 Feb-70 Mar-73 Apr-76 May-79 Jun-82 Jul-85 Aug-88 Sep-91 Oct-94 Nov-97 Nov-00 Nov-03 Nov-06 Nov-09
Note: The red line reflects claim levels historically associated with net employment growth. Gray bars denote NBER recessions
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; National Bureau of Economic Research
Initial Jobless Claims (Recent Cycle)
700,000
Initial Jobless Claims (4-wk MA)
650,000
600,000
550,000
500,000
450,000
400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
Jan-07 Jun-07 Nov-07 Apr-08 Sep-08 Feb-09 Jul-09 Dec-09 May-10 Oct-10 Mar-11 Aug-11 Jan-12
Note: The solid red line indicates the level of jobless claims historically associated with net employment growth
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Continuing Jobless Claims. Continuing claims also continue to move steadily lower and remain below
previous cyclical peaks. The 4-week moving average fell to 3.417 million at the end of February versus
3.50 million in January and 3.61 million on 12/31/11. Continuing claims are ~52.5% below the recent
cyclical peak in early 2009 (see figure below).
Robert W. Baird & Co. 11
12. March 9, 2012 | Facility Services
Continuing Jobless Claims
7,000,000
6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
0
Jan-67 Feb-70 Mar-73 Apr-76 May-79 Jun-82 Jul-85 Aug-88 Sep-91 Oct-94 Nov-97 Nov-00 Nov-03 Nov-06 Nov-09
Note: Gray bars denote NBER recessions
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; National Bureau of Economic Research
Unemployment Rate. The U.S. unemployment rate (which is based on a separate survey) held
constant in February at 8.3%, consistent with expectations, but above the estimated (Federal Reserve)
natural rate of unemployment of ~6.2%. Still, the unemployment rate is now at its lowest point of the
current cycle (post-recession) and (positively) we continue to see a stable to declining unemployment
rate despite a growing labor pool (which may signal an improving employment backdrop). The U-6
unemployment rate (which includes involuntary part-time employment and other underutilized labor)
declined to 14.9% (-20 bps sequentially). The unemployment rate still remains well above the previous
cyclical peaks of 6.3% in June 2003 and 7.8% rate in June 1992, however.
Civilian Unemployment Rate (persons 16 years of age and older)
18
16 U3 rate ("Official" unemployment rate)
14 U6 rate (Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers)
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Note: The solid grey bars indicate recessions, as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Robert W. Baird & Co. 12
13. March 9, 2012 | Facility Services
Investment Perspective and Valuation
Holding Outperform rating on all three uniform companies, but GKSR is our top idea. We believe
fundamentals remain strong enough to suggest continued upside to consensus estimates near-term,
with risk/reward likely biased higher. We view valuation as fair, but not cheap, with EPS upside likely to
be the largest driver of future stock performance. While all three companies should benefit from strong
employment fundamentals over the near-term, our top idea remains GKSR for longer-term (12-18+
months) investors, as we view profitability initiatives underway as offering outsized earnings growth
potential over the next several years, relative to peers. Our company-specific investment theses are
summarized below.
UNIFIRST
s We rate UniFirst (UNF; $68 price target) at Outperform. Our upgrade from Neutral to Outperform
last quarter was primarily based on valuation, but also due to opportunities for balance sheet
deployment which could be accretive to earnings/value. While the relative valuation gap versus peers
(which formed the basis of our upgrade) has likely closed, we continue to see modest upside through
continued execution, cyclical tailwinds, and, importantly, deployment of a potentially underlevered
balance sheet. Indeed, return-of-capital initiatives and/or M&A could create shareholder value through
strategic deployment (we see potential for up to $400 million of incremental balance sheet capacity,
or $20/share) and is the primary catalyst for the stock today, in our opinion.
- Thoughts on the balance sheet. Net debt/capital has declined to just 6.2% and 0.6x TTM
EBITDA, well below historical levels in the 20-25%/1.5x range providing (we believe) roughly $400
million of available balance sheet capacity today. Historically, UNF has utilized the balance sheet to
pursue M&A. However, with the M&A market still soft (supported by anecdotal discussions) and free
cash flow generation likely to bring UNF to a net cash position by the end of F2012, we view some
form of shareholder deployment as a likely use of cash going forward.
s Valuation. Our $68 price target reflects a 6.2x FTM EBITDA multiple, generally consistent with
current levels, on our estimates 12-months from today. We believe current multiples are appropriate,
at a modest premium to historical (five-year) levels but at a discount to peers in the 7-8x EBITDA
range today (we note UNF's dual-class share structure has historically driven a ~1-2 point valuation
discount versus peers). In addition, we note that adjusted for what we see as an underlevered
balance sheet, we believe the stock's forward earnings multiples (ex-cash) is closer to 10x versus a
~13x historical (five-year) average.
s Risks. Risks to our price target include a highly competitive market/pricing, employment trends,
energy and other commodity price fluctuations and a 10:1 super-voting dual-class insider share
structure.
G&K Services
s We rate G&K Services (GKSR; $38 price target) at Outperform. F1Q12 results (January) were
ahead of expectations, with better-than-expected organic growth and SG&A leverage offsetting gross
margin pressure (merchandise cost from new accounts). Our valuation contemplates what we see as
opportunity for multi-year value creation over the next 2-3 years. With continued opportunity to drive
additional operating efficiencies, solid execution, achievable forward estimates and reasonable
valuation, in our view, we highlight what could prove to be stronger-than-expected results, particularly
in F2013.
s Valuation. We believe investors are best served by taking a multi-year look at GKSR’s earnings
power. In addition, we believe outsized earnings growth potential at GKSR relative to peers continues
Robert W. Baird & Co. 13
14. March 9, 2012 | Facility Services
to justify a growth multiple for the stock. Our $38 price target assumes an essentially constant
multiple of 7.3x EBITDA and 15.0x earnings, consistent with the stock's historical (five-year) average
on an EBITDA basis and perhaps providing additional opportunity given what we see as above
average EPS growth potential over the next several years with an implied PEG ratio of just 0.75x (we
assume ~20% EPS growth through F2013). We also note that our DCF model supports a price target
in the upper $30s, supporting the value of the franchise beyond simple multiples analysis.
s Risks. Risks to our price target include a highly competitive industry/pricing, employment trends, and
energy and other commodity price fluctuations.
CINTAS
s We rate Cintas (CTAS; $42 price target) at Outperform. F2Q12 earnings in December
demonstrated meaningful momentum, with management's view for the balance of the year improved.
Importantly, CTAS sees runway for additional margin gains ahead, with recent performance providing
confidence and the company's strong cash flow and healthy balance sheet likely providing
opportunities for additional return of capital initiatives. We see conservative guidance setting the
stage for additional beat-and-raise quarters as the most likely catalyst for the stock today.
s Valuation. Our $42 price target assumes a constant multiple of 8.0x our FTM EBITDA estimate
12-months from today and 15.9x earnings. While these multiples are generally consistent with the
stock's five-year average of 7.7x/16.2x, we view industry fundamentals as stronger today relative to
our historical valuation history with significant operating leverage providing opportunity for
above-average EPS growth.
s Risks. Risks to our price target include a highly competitive industry/pricing, employment trends,
energy and scrap paper price fluctuations and acquisition integration.
Robert W. Baird & Co. 14
15. March 9, 2012 | Facility Services
Appendix - Important Disclosures and Analyst Certification
Covered Companies Mentioned
All stock prices below are the March 8, 2012 closing price.
Cintas Corporation (CTAS - $39.26 - Outperform)
G&K Services, Inc. (GKSR - $32.65 - Outperform)
UniFirst Corporation (UNF - $58.96 - Outperform)
(See recent research reports for more information)
Rating and Price Target History for: Cintas Corporation (CTAS) as of 03-08-2012
06/01/09 09/23/09 12/23/09 02/17/10 07/21/10 09/22/10 12/22/10 03/14/11 03/23/11 07/20/11 09/12/11
N:$27 U:$28 U:$26 U:$22 N:$28 N:$30 N:$32 O:$34 O:$35 O:$36 O:$34
40
32
24
16
8
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1
2009 2010 2011 2012
12/21/11 02/21/12
O:$38 O:$42
Created by BlueMatrix
Rating and Price Target History for: G&K Services, Inc. (GKSR) as of 03-08-2012
04/29/09 06/01/09 08/07/09 09/23/09 10/28/09 01/27/10 04/28/10 06/15/10 08/18/10 11/02/10 01/19/11
N:$26 N:$22 N:$21 U:$21 N:$23 N:$26 N:$28 N:$23 N:$24 N:$30 O:$37
40
32
24
16
8
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1
2009 2010 2011 2012
02/02/11 05/03/11 08/17/11 01/31/12
O:$38 O:$40 O:$37 O:$38
Created by BlueMatrix
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16. March 9, 2012 | Facility Services
Rating and Price Target History for: UniFirst Corporation (UNF) as of 03-08-2012
06/01/09 06/02/09 07/02/09 09/23/09 10/29/09 01/07/10 04/01/10 07/01/10 10/20/10 01/05/11 01/19/11
N:$37 N:$36 N:$39 U:$42 U:$43 O:$59 O:$60 O:$51 O:$54 O:$57 N:$58
75
60
45
30
15
0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1
2009 2010 2011 2012
03/30/11 06/30/11 09/12/11 10/19/11 01/05/12
N:$60 N:$61 N:$57 O:$60 O:$68
Created by BlueMatrix
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Investment Ratings: Outperform (O) - Expected to outperform on a total return, risk-adjusted basis the broader U.S. equity market
over the next 12 months. Neutral (N) - Expected to perform in line with the broader U.S. equity market over the next 12 months.
Underperform (U) - Expected to underperform on a total return, risk-adjusted basis the broader U.S. equity market over the next 12
months.
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safety. Company characteristics may include: stable earnings, conservative balance sheets, and an established history of revenue and
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Robert W. Baird & Co. 16
17. March 9, 2012 | Facility Services
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