1. Marijuana
Legalization
Issues:
Where Can We Go?
Kevin A. Sabet, Ph.D.
Director, Drug Policy Institute and Assistant
Professor, University of Florida
President, Policy Solutions Lab, Cambridge, MA
www.kevinsabet.com

2. Disclosure
Neither I nor any member of my family
has a relationship with any proprietary
entity concerning services discussed in
this presentation.
Neither I nor any member of my family
has a relationship with the alcohol or
tobacco industry.

3. Why Are We Having
This Discussion?

4. Because They Have
Been Brilliant…
And We Have Not Been!

5. All or nothing?
Legalization vs. Prohibition

7. They‟ve organized at the state
level to push their initiatives.

8. They have major donors who
fund their work and
messages.

9. They‟ve secured legislative
champions at all levels –
local, state and federal.

10. They‟ve gotten the attention of
editorial boards and media –
including print, television
and social media.

11. They‟ve mobilized major
grassroots and student
supporters.

12. They are present and active
in every single academic,
think-tank, UN, and other
international and domestic
discussion on drug policy.

13. How Can We Turn This
Around?

14. Marijuana legalization could pass:
In one poll, National support is 50%
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Year 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Do not support legalization Support Legalization
Sources: Gallup http://bit.ly/olrSEQ and GSS

15. But Have We Seen This
Before?

16. Percentage of U.S. 12th Grade Students
Reporting Past Month Use of Cigarettes
and Marijuana, 1975 to 2009
40
30
Cigarettes
Percent
20
Marijuana
10
0
Source: The Monitoring the Future study, the University of Michigan

17. Is the late 1970s…
In 5 years, 11 states “decriminalized” marijuana
NORML bragged, 1978: Keith Stroup “We are trying to get
marijuana reclassified medically. If we do that, (we'll do it in
at least 20 states this year for chemotherapy patients) we'll
be using the issue as a red herring to give marijuana a good
name.” (Emory Wheel, 1978)
2012: MASSCANN/NORML spokesman: “Stepping stone to
legalization? I hope so. That‟s the plan. Decrim 2008, Medical
2012, Legal 2016. Yes we want to legalize! We will completely
legalize for everybody in 2016.” (YouTube, 2012)

18. Legalization Resurgence
Brilliant PR: “Marijuana is Medicine”
Tight Marijuana Legalization Racesin „12
Our Side Often Feels Dejected
(public grantees “cannot lobby”)

19. Generational trends in support
for legalization (Caulkins)
Percent Favoring Legalization by Birth
Percentage Favoring Legalization
50%
Cohort (GSS)
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
Overall Silent Generation (1925-1945)
Baby Boomers (1946-1964) Generation X and Y (1965-2000)

20. In 2012
Three States Voting on Marijuana
Legalization: OR, WA, CO
WA and CO are most worrisome –
professionally run campaigns with $$$
Four States to Vote on “Medical”
Marijuana

21. Factors Leading to Increase
Outspent
Messenger problem (generational
familiarity)
Seen and framed as
sensible alternative

22. We Must Always Emphasize
We Don‟t Have All The Answers
Current Policies Can Be Reformed, But
Legalization is Unnecessary for That
Legalization Exposes Us to
Unknown Risk

23. Ultimately the Question is this:
“Is the right to get high and buy legal pot in a
store worth the risk to kids in the form of
greater addiction and learning deficits, the risk
to society when we have another legal entity
advertising an addictive substance, and the risk
to our economy in the form of greater safety and
health costs (like car crashes or the costs to
health care and the costs of a newly regulated
system)?”

24. We Lose When We…
Say that Current Policy Needs No
Changes, “Everything is Great”
Go on the Defensive About Law
Enforcement Resources
Don‟t Integrate Doctors, Health
Workers, Teachers, Soccer Moms in Our
Work

25. Going Through the
Arguments

26. Current Use of Major Substances in
the General Population, 2009
Past Month Use (Ages 12 or Older)
60
51.9
50
40
30
23.3
20
10 6.6
0
Marijuana Cigarettes Alcohol
2009 National Survey on Drug Use and Health
Source: SAMHSA, (September 2010).

27. Alcohol & Tobacco:
Money Makers or Dollar Drainers?
Alcohol Tobacco
Costs Costs
$185 $200
bil. bil.
$25
$14
bil.
bil.
Revenues Revenues

28. “If Only We Treated It Like Alcohol…”
2.7 million 847,000
Arrests for alcohol-related Marijuana-related
crimes in 2008 arrests in 2008
(Does NOT include violence;
Includes violations of liquor laws and
driving under the influence)

29. Effect of Legalization on
Price & Consumption
RAND: Price Will Drop More Than 80%
Consumption Will Increase
Tax evasion a major concern

30. What incentives do legal
corporations have to keep price low
and consumption high?
Alcohol: “Drink Responsibly”
and
Tax Low

31. Legalization: Experience
Elsewhere?
No modern nation has tried
legalization, though most Western
countries do not imprison people for
simple marijuana possession.
- The Netherlands, Portugal, Italy use rates lower for some
drugs since 10 yrs ago; higher for others.
- The Dutch experienced a three-fold increase in marijuana use
among young adults after commercialization expanded.

33. Estimated Number of Sentenced Prisoners and Drug
Offenders Under State Jurisdiction, 1985 to 2009
1,400,000
Number of Sentenced Prisoners All Offenses
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000 263,800 251,400
224,900
148,600
200,000
38,900
Drug Offenses
0
1985
1986
1987
1988
1990
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1999
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2008
1989
1991
1998
2000
2007
2009
Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Prisoners in 2009 (December 2010); Prisoners in
1996 (June 1997).
6/2011

34. Underground Markets and
Crime
RAND: Mexican DTOs earn 15-25% of revenue from
marijuana.
It is highly likely that legalization would not
eliminate black markets for drugs.
State Legalization: 2-4% impact on DTO revenues
(California)
- Most legalization proposals call for taxes on
drugs, which increases likelihood that markets will
remain endemic.
- TCOs involved in numerous illegal trades

35. Taxes Necessary to Prevent a
Price Collapse Are Enormous
• Excise taxes create gray markets
• Most relevant metrics are
– Price per unit weight
– Price per unit volume
• Canada tried but had to repeal
~300% excise taxes on tobacco

36. Cross Sectional Relationship Between
Tobacco Tax & Evasion (Caulkins)
50%
45% y = 0.1141x + 0.0018
R² = 0.5559
40%
Consumption from Smuggling
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
$0.00 $0.50 $1.00 $1.50 $2.00 $2.50 $3.00 $3.50 $4.00
Excise Tax ($ per pack)

37. Placing a $50 per Ounce MJ Tax on the
Same Scale (assuming 20 grams per pack)
450%
400%
350%
Consumption from Smuggling
300%
250%
200%
150%
100%
50%
0%
$0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60
Excise Tax per Ounce

38. Marijuana‟s Health Effects
Most people who use marijuana once will
stop, and not get addicted.
1 in 6 kids who try marijuana will become
addicted.
For the group of people who keep
smoking marijuana, the health harms are
underappreciated and costly.

39. Potency: Increased THC Content
in Seized Marijuana
PERCENT THC FROM 1983 TO 2009
10%
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0
’85 ’90 ’95 ’00 ’05
Sources: The University of Mississippi Potency Monitoring Project

40. Long Term Effects
of Marijuana
ESTIMATED PREVALENCE OF DEPENDENCE AMONG USERS
32
23
17
15
11
9
8
5
Tobacco Alcohol Marijuana Cocaine Stimulant Analgesics Psychedelics Heroin
Source: Wagner, F.A. & Anthony, J.C. From First drug use to drug dependence; developmental periods of risk
for dependence upon cannabis, cocaine, and alcohol. Neuropsychopharmacology 26, 479-488 (2002).

41. 282 351
Heroin Stimulants 358
175 Hallucinogens
Inhalants
451
126 Tranquilizers
Sedatives
Dependence on or Abuse
of Specific Illicit Drugs
in the Past Year Among
Persons 12 or Older, 2008
1,411
Cocaine
4,199
Marijuana
1,716
Pain Relievers
Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration. (2009). Office of Applied Studies.
Treatment Episode Data Set (TEDS): 2009 Discharges from Substance Abuse Treatment Services, DASIS .

42. Increased Marijuana Treatment
Admissions 1993 and 2007
PERCENT OF ADMISSIONS
60%
19932007
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0
Alcohol Cocaine Heroin Marijuana
Source: Treatment Episode Data Set, US Health and Human Services, 1993 & 2007

43. Marijuana and Kids
The adolescent brain is especially
susceptible to marijuana use.
That means that when kids use, they have
a greater chance of addiction since their
brains are being primed.
If used regularly before 18, new research
shows that IQ drops by 8 points at age
38, even when that person has stopped.

44. Let‟s Not Go Back Here
The Liggett Group: “If you are really
and truly not going to sell [cigarettes] to
children, you are going to be out of
business in 30 years.”
R. J. Reynolds: “Realistically, if our
company is to survive and prosper, over
the long term we must get our share of
the youth market.”

45. Lorillard: “The base of our business is
the high school student.”
Phillip Morris: “Today's teenager is
tomorrow's potential regular
customer… Because of our high share of
the market among the youngest
smokers, Philip Morris will suffer more
than the other companies from the
decline in the number of teenage
smokers.”

46. There are many ways
to reduce
incarceration and
other related
consequences
without legalizing
drugs.

47. Solutions
Smart International
Prevention Treatment Recovery Enforcement Efforts

48. The future is uncertain…
Extrapolation of Percentage Favoring
Legalization Given Cohort Turnover
(Jonathan Caulkins)
Percentage Favoring Legalization
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%

49. WWhat did we learn in
California? (Caulkins)
9%
VOTEDNO
Swing Voters
Outwardly Against Legalization
8% Income
Voting No On Prop 19 Minus
Liberal $40K-$80K
7% Female
Age 55+
Parents of Children in
Public Schools
6% Income Conservative
Overall $80K+
5%
< HS
4% Male
Education
3% Age
18-34 Income
Under
2% $40K
Immigrant
1%
Latino
0%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Percent Voting No on Prop 19

50. • 1 in 11 of those who voted „No‟ agree
that marijuana should be legalized
but did not like the specifics of Prop
19
• Focus on Specifics of Proposal, NOT
generalizations
• Form partnerships with key groups
– Immigrant populations
– 55+
– Females, Soccer Moms, Public Schools

51. Immediate Steps for All of Us
Recruit Younger Generation as Leaders
Go Out of Our Way to Not Look
Inflexible, We Must Reclaim “Reform”
Pick Battles Wisely
Think Like “Google” or “Apple”
Not “Microsoft”

52. THANK YOU!
KEVINSABET@GMAIL.COM
WWW.KEVINSABET.COM