http://www.wageningenur.nl/upload_mm/d/6/c/4cac871f-574f-4ee1-bb3b-6400d4007bbd_2012_P%20workshop%20wageningen_van%20Dijk_EU-27%20scenario%20analyses_V2.pdf

1. Phosphorus scenario analyses in the
EU-27 food system
Present and future P flows and dynamics
Kimo van Dijk MSc, Wageningen University
2nd Scientific European Phosphorus Workshop,
Wageningen, 6 February 2013

2. Introduction
 Phosphorus (P) is essential and non-renewable at human time
scale
 EU has almost no mineral P sources and dependents on import
 Transition towards sustainable use of P is necessary:
● Higher P use efficiency & more/better recycling
● 4R principle is usefull:
• Reduce the inputs
• Reuse organic P rich materials
• Recycle wastes
• Redefine and redesign

3. Objectives & research questions
 To develop a dynamic model for the analysis of the
effects of changes in drivers and nutrient management
strategies on P dynamics in the food chain.
 What would be the P dynamics & food production in EU-
27 in case of a stop of P import via
● Q1: mineral fertilizers?
● Q2: mineral fertilizers and animal feed?
 Q3: What are effects of best management practices
(BMPs) on food production and P use efficiency?

4. Dynamic Food System model
 Mass balance principle
 Miterra-Europe model
 EU-27 at country level,
timesteps of a year
 Entire food system
 P imports, exports, losses
and internal flows
 Flows described
dynamically as function of
sector input
 Crop P uptake as function
of soil P stock and P
application

5. Dynamic crop P uptake

6. Dynamic crop P uptake
Mitscherlich yield response curve:
Puptake= [a – b * exp (-c* Papplication)] * d
Crop P Yield Response Types (1=high, 5=low response)
CPYRT Crop types
CPYRT 1 Vegetables, cut flowers, tree nurseries
CPYRT 2 Potatoes, maize
CPYRT 3 Sugar beet
CPYRT 4 Oil crops, other root crops, legumes, summer cereals, bulb flowers
CPYRT 5 Cereals, grassland, fruit tree, citrus trees, olive trees

7. EU-27 P flow analyses & data
 Different sources:
Miterra-Europe, CAPRI,
FAOSTAT, Eurostat,
reports, articles and
experts
 P flow = physical flow x
P content
 ‘Top down’ data
integration VS ‘bottom
up’
 Assumptions were
necessary
P flows in the EU-27 food system for 2005 in Gg P/year, showing the imports (I) , exports (E),
losses of and internal upward/downward flows between sectors (indicated with square
blocks), the width of the arrows representing the magnitude of the flow.

8. Scenarios & BMPs
 The scenarios are:
● BAU: present (~2005), Business as Usual
● S1: future, no P import via fertilizer, BAU
● S2: future, no P import via fertilizer & feed, BAU
● S3: future, no P import via fertilizer, BMPs
● S4: future, no P import via fertilizer & feed, BMPs
 The Best Management Practices (BMPs) are:
● BMP-1: 25 % lower P losses in each sector
● BMP-2: 75 % higher crop P use efficiency
 No changes in other drivers and factors, such as
population, agricultural area, crop types etc.

9. Per ha EU-27 crop P uptake per scenario
for 2005-2300

10. Changes in soil P stock per scenario for
2005-2300

11. Total P import, export, losses and balance
per scenario in 2050

12. Per capita food production & processing P
flows per scenario in 2050

13. Total P in food available per capita per
Member State per scenario in 2050

14. Changes in total P in food per capita in EU-
27 per scenario for 2005-2300

15. Changes in dry matter crop yield in EU-27
per scenario for 2005-2300

16. Conclusions
 The EU-27 is heavily dependent on the import of P via mineral
fertilizer (70%), animal feed (20%) and food products.
 Soil P is an important stock to take into account in P dynamics,
because of its buffering capacity and large size (~150.000 Gg P)
 A stop on P fertilizer import has a large effect on food production,
mainly on the longer term
 A stop on P import via fertilizer and animal feed makes the effect
even more pronounced, causing a larger and earlier drop in food
production
 The effects can be mitigated by the implementation of best
management practices in nutrient management
 Additional data is necessary, especially for downscaling to the
regional level

17. Thank you for
your attention
Do you have
questions, comments or data?
Email: kimo.vandijk@wur.nl