5. Sometimes, it is important to just ask the right questions.
Or, frankly, to ask any questions at all.
6. We all experience the present.
We choose to vicariously experience the future.
What were we saying about the future in 1999, and what
lesson does that offer for our thinking about 2019?
7. •The Cluetrain Manifesto
• “Employees are Passionate, Involved,
Networked Consumers, Too”
•Permission Marketing
• “Interruption BAD, Permission GOOD!”
•One-to-One Marketing
• “High-Tech, High-Touch”
• Mass micro-personalization
•Disintermediation
• Dispensing with the middle-men.
• “Will consumers even need marketing?”
is Just Like Direct Mail, but Cheaper!”
•“Email
8. •Eyeballs more Important than a Business Model
(Pets.com!)
•The end of mass advertising, rise of niche
marketing
•Multi-Channel Integration
• “Clicks and Mortar”
• Consumer channel preference
• Measurement challenges
Internet will Become Pervasive and “Normal”
•The
• Broadband will be standard
• “The Information Superhighway” … product
information faster!
9. From Whom Do We Learn
About the Future?
Our Gut
Extrapolation of Current Trends
“Nothing Much Really Changes”
Science/Speculative Fiction Writers
“Futurists”
A: All of the above.
10. Amara’s Law:
quot;We tend to overestimate the effect of a
technology in the short run and to
underestimate the effect in the long run.quot;
- Roy Amara, futurist (1925-2007)
An Example:
Q: What Percent of Americans Use Twitter
as of March, 2009?
11. (But it’s growing like a weed; thanks Oprah!)
Oh, and HELLOOO, Maureen Dowd!
12.
13. (March, 2009, again)
Be careful not to generalize from your own cutting-edge
experience, friends.
14. Hammerslough’s Quibble:
Amara’s Law works in reverse, too:
“We tend to underestimate the effect and
persistence of old technologies when
thinking about the future”
Charlie Hammerslough, amateur (1958-)
Examples:
Yellow Pages advertising expenditure is growing
and becoming more effective (+4% YOY)
Online Advertising accounts for only 12% of
worldwide expenditures (2008)
16. Current Trends, 2009
(a selection)
“You are What You Publish”
Websites, blogs, twitter, videos, vlogs, news
releases, etc
Content and Utility ARE Marketing
Visual Everything – Rise of Semiotics
Icons everywhere
Technology-Enabled Social Networks
and Word of Mouth
25. Stuff That Won’t Change
(probably)
Branding
How a product is represented inside people’s
minds
Appeals to Emotion
Formerly Fear, Sex, and Greed (sometimes
humor)
Now Supplemented by Sociability,
Commitment, Vanity, Surprise?
Authenticity of Voice
Ever-shifting … content and utility are now
ascendant
34. Acknowledgements and
Sources
David Meerman Scott. 2007. The New
Rules of Marketing and PR. Book.
Paul Isakson. 2007. What’s Next in
Marketing and Advertising. PPT.
http://tinyurl.com/37sbht
John Willshire. 2009. The Future of
Advertising in One Afternoon. PPT.
http://tinyurl.com/bmd8bb
Stats on usage of Social Media by
Americans and by Marketers: (blogs)
http://tinyurl.com/ccwqrg
http://tinyurl.com/ckh8nl
35. Acknowledgements and
Sources (cont.)
Mike Lewis. 2008. Social Media
Marketing: Online Marketing Summit.
PPT. http://tinyurl.com/6h3pzg
David Armano (visualizations)
Blog: http://darmano.typepad.com
Website: www.davidarmano.com
Cadbury Viral Advert
www.youtube.com/watch?v=TVblWq3tDwY
