This document summarizes a presentation on grain and livestock marketing. It covers commodity marketing basics including cash price, futures, and basis. It also discusses fundamental and technical analysis, focusing on factors like weather, supply and demand, exports, and USDA reports. Key international regions are identified and marketing terms are defined. The role of a commodity advisor is outlined along with an agenda for discussing market outlooks.

1. Grain and Livestock Marketing
LaVell Winsor
Commodity Advisor
Loewen & Associates
785-220-5451
lavellwinsor@cox.net

2. Agenda
• Commodity Marketing Basics
• Fundamental and Technical Analysis
and the major issues that affect each
• World Issues to Watch
• Marketing Terms
• Market Outlook

3. Risk Disclosure
This does constitute a solicitation to buy or sell commodities futures
and/or options. The information contained herein is provided for
informational purposes only. The information is not guaranteed as
to its accuracy or completeness, although the information was taken
from sources we believe to be reliable. The market
recommendations of Loewen and Associates, Inc. are based solely on
the judgment of Loewen and Associates, Inc. personnel. We do not
guarantee or warranty, either expressed or implied, of success to you
in the use of this information. Loewen and Associates, Inc. disclaims
responsibility for or loss associated with use of information from our
commentary, analysis or recommendations. There is risk of loss in
trading commodity futures and options. The risk in trading can be
substantial; therefore only genuine “risk” funds should be used.

4. Marketing 101

5. Cash Price
• Cash = Futures + Basis
• Cash Corn in Topeka, KS
$4.40 Cash = $4.45 Futures - $.05 Basis

6. Futures
• Cash = Futures + Basis
• Cash Corn in Topeka, KS
– $4.40 Cash = $4.45 Futures - $.05 Basis
• What Impacts the Futures Price?

7. Basis
• Cash = Futures + Basis
• Cash Corn in Topeka, KS
– $4.40 Cash = $4.45 Futures - $.05 Basis
• What Impacts the Basis?
– Basis is a local barometer of supply and demand.

8. Fundamental & Technical Analysis
• Fundamentals
– Weather
– Supply and Demand
– Logistics
– Exports

9. Fundamental & Technical Analysis

10. Supply and Demand
• USDA Supply and Demand Report monthly
US CORN SUPPLY & DEMAND
2010/11 2011/12 2012/13
Planted Acres
Harvested Acres
% Harvested
Yield
Beg Stocks
Production
Imports
Total Supply
Feed
Food & Seed
Ethanol
Export
Total Use
Ending Stocks
Stocks to Use %
88.2
81.46
92.36%
152.8
1708
12447
28
14183
4793
1407
5019
1835
13054
1128
8.64%
91.9
84
91.40%
147.2
1128
12360
29
13517
4557
1428
5000
1543
12528
989
7.89%
97.2
87.4
89.92%
123.4
989
10780
162
11932
4335
1396
4648
731
11111
821
7.39%
2013/14 2013/14
JAN 2014 FEB 2014
95.4
95.4
87.7
87.7
91.93%
91.93%
158.8
158.8
821
821
13925
13925
35
35
14781
14781
5300
5300
1400
1400
5000
5000
1450
1600
13150
13300
1631
1481
12.40%
11.10%

11. Countries to Watch
•
•
•
•
•
•
Brazil and Argentina
China
India
Russia
Continent of Africa
United States Consumers

12. Marketing Terms
•
•
•
•
•
•
Bullish/Bearish
Carry/Inverse
Long/Short
Hedger/Speculator
Marketing Plan
Grain Buyer/Broker/Commodity Advisor

13. Role of a Commodity Advisor
• Works with you to execute your marketing
plan
– Move all grain at harvest or all farm storage
– Where can you ship your grain to?
– How to capture the best overall price
• Futures market pricing then add in basis and
carry into marketing

14. Market Outlook
•
•
•
•
Corn
Soybean
Wheat
Cattle

15. LaVell Winsor, Commodity Advisor
Loewen and Associates
785-220-5451, lavellwinsor@cox.net