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Alternative futures of security
            research in support of a
           comprehensive approach


                        FOCUS
                        Mid-Term Symposium

                        Foresight Security Scenarios
                         Dr. Walter SEBÖCK
Tuesday 13 March 2012
                         DI Johannes GÖLLNER, MSc
Objective

       FOCUS-Deliverable D3.3:
        –   will select scenarios from FOCUS-Deliverable D3.2 and
            explore alternative futures of security research to
            support EU roles in the context of selected scenarios of
            the comprehensive approach as developed in FOCUS-
            Deliverable D3.2;
        –   will in particular identify ideal contributions from
            multidisciplinary security research to meet requirements
            of a comprehensive approach;
        –   Will assess the appropriateness of these contributions
            against the background of scenarios for EU-specific roles
            in the context of future variants of the comprehensive
2           approach.                        FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
Selected
    4 thematic embedded scenarios

       Scenario I:  “Policy strategies
                       consensus scenario”
     Scenario II: “Policy strategies

                      leftovers scenario”
     Scenario III: “Multinationalism
      scenario”
     Scenario IV: “Materialism scenario”
3                          FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
Selected
    4 thematic embedded scenarios

    Scenario I:    “Policy strategies consensus scenario”

    Questions about this scenario:
    Which measures must be taken, to prevent an overruling of
    individual states by the development of common rules for hazard-
    driven policy?
    Which security-related research topics should be designed in
    order to expand and broadening the concept of an European
    security research?



4                                       FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
Selected
    4 thematic embedded scenarios

    Scenario II: “Policy strategies leftovers scenario”

    Questions about this scenario:
    Which measures must be taken in order to review and integrate
    interdisciplinary expertise in European security policy more
    closely?
    Which security-related research topics should be designed in
    order to expand and broadening the concept of an European
    security research?



5                                       FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
Selected
    4 thematic embedded scenarios

    Scenario III: “Multinationalism scenario”
    Questions about this scenario:
    Do you think, that internal or external nationalism may pose a
    security threat to the EU and why?
    Under which framework it is possible to act against nationalistic
    threats? Which EU members are able to play an important role and
    which values do represent the EU in its entirety?
    Please name a programme in which the EU represents common
    values in order to act against external threatening nationalisms.
    Which security-related research topics should be designed in
    order to expand and broadening the concept of an European
    security research?
6                                         FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
Selected
    4 thematic embedded scenarios

    Scenario IV: “Materialism scenario”

    Questions about this scenario:
    Do you believe that an enhanced cooperation and harmonization
    could reduce or optimize resources in partner countries?
    Which kind of harmonization and cooperation would you prefer
    or define as useful?
    Which security-related research topics should be designed in
    order to expand and broadening the concept of an European
    security research?


7                                       FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
Objective

       Following future security research themes will be further
        explored for approx. four selected thematic embedded
        scenarios:
        –   EU cohesion, decision-making and, more generally,
            governance
        –   Regional/international/global distribution of wealth;
        –   Climate change;
        –   Crises resulting from scarcity of resources;
        –   Dependency on supply chains and reliability on the stability
            of re-source sources (stability of providing countries);


8                                            FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
Objective

      –   Dependency on information and communication technology,
          and technology in general (address cascading breakdown
          of systems);
      –   Willingness to invest in preparedness;
      –   New methodologies for collecting and integrating data from
          various different sources;
      –   Intelligent, knowledge-based focusing and filtering functions
          for new social media and other open information source
          monitoring;
      –   Integrated situational pictures as facilitation for networked
          operation command structures;

9                                          FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
Objective

       –   Information exchange among civilian and military actors in
           order to provide common, timely and relevant situational
           awareness;
       –   Decision-making tools based on joined-up situation
           analyses, in-cluding their use to secure public acceptance
           and support;
       –   Standardized skills development and integrated information
           sys-tems for a effective coordination of resources as well as
           to coop-eration between EU Member States;
       –   Training schemes for technology use, including new social
           net-work technologies;

10                                          FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
Objective

       –   Advancement and integration of approaches to foresight,
           with special consideration of the following:
             User-driven shifts;
             User experience as a dominant influence in the
               technology trend;
             Identification and analysis of disruptors from normative
               (desired) end-states.




11                                         FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
in relation to a theoretical
Security[zation]-Framework

                                 Political
                                 security
        Economic                                          Societal
         security                                         security
                         Comprehensive
                           Approach
     Environmental
        security                                     Military security

                             …and so on...

Source: Buzan, Weaver, Wilde;
A New Framework for Analysis, 2002           FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
Sources

        Focus Deliverable-D3.2
        Buzan, Weaver, Wilde: A New Framework for Analysis, 2002




13                                        FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
http://www.focusproject.eu

     FOCUS is co-funded by the European
     Commission under the 7th Framework
     Programme, theme "security", call
     FP7-SEC-2010-1, work programme topic 6.3-2
     "Fore sighting the contribution of security
     research to meet the future EU roles“,
     Grant Agreement no. 261633.



14                                FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios

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Duk goellner seboeck-focus-midterm symposion_march 2012

  • 1. Alternative futures of security research in support of a comprehensive approach FOCUS Mid-Term Symposium Foresight Security Scenarios Dr. Walter SEBÖCK Tuesday 13 March 2012 DI Johannes GÖLLNER, MSc
  • 2. Objective  FOCUS-Deliverable D3.3: – will select scenarios from FOCUS-Deliverable D3.2 and explore alternative futures of security research to support EU roles in the context of selected scenarios of the comprehensive approach as developed in FOCUS- Deliverable D3.2; – will in particular identify ideal contributions from multidisciplinary security research to meet requirements of a comprehensive approach; – Will assess the appropriateness of these contributions against the background of scenarios for EU-specific roles in the context of future variants of the comprehensive 2 approach. FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
  • 3. Selected 4 thematic embedded scenarios  Scenario I: “Policy strategies consensus scenario”  Scenario II: “Policy strategies leftovers scenario”  Scenario III: “Multinationalism scenario”  Scenario IV: “Materialism scenario” 3 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
  • 4. Selected 4 thematic embedded scenarios Scenario I: “Policy strategies consensus scenario” Questions about this scenario: Which measures must be taken, to prevent an overruling of individual states by the development of common rules for hazard- driven policy? Which security-related research topics should be designed in order to expand and broadening the concept of an European security research? 4 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
  • 5. Selected 4 thematic embedded scenarios Scenario II: “Policy strategies leftovers scenario” Questions about this scenario: Which measures must be taken in order to review and integrate interdisciplinary expertise in European security policy more closely? Which security-related research topics should be designed in order to expand and broadening the concept of an European security research? 5 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
  • 6. Selected 4 thematic embedded scenarios Scenario III: “Multinationalism scenario” Questions about this scenario: Do you think, that internal or external nationalism may pose a security threat to the EU and why? Under which framework it is possible to act against nationalistic threats? Which EU members are able to play an important role and which values do represent the EU in its entirety? Please name a programme in which the EU represents common values in order to act against external threatening nationalisms. Which security-related research topics should be designed in order to expand and broadening the concept of an European security research? 6 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
  • 7. Selected 4 thematic embedded scenarios Scenario IV: “Materialism scenario” Questions about this scenario: Do you believe that an enhanced cooperation and harmonization could reduce or optimize resources in partner countries? Which kind of harmonization and cooperation would you prefer or define as useful? Which security-related research topics should be designed in order to expand and broadening the concept of an European security research? 7 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
  • 8. Objective  Following future security research themes will be further explored for approx. four selected thematic embedded scenarios: – EU cohesion, decision-making and, more generally, governance – Regional/international/global distribution of wealth; – Climate change; – Crises resulting from scarcity of resources; – Dependency on supply chains and reliability on the stability of re-source sources (stability of providing countries); 8 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
  • 9. Objective – Dependency on information and communication technology, and technology in general (address cascading breakdown of systems); – Willingness to invest in preparedness; – New methodologies for collecting and integrating data from various different sources; – Intelligent, knowledge-based focusing and filtering functions for new social media and other open information source monitoring; – Integrated situational pictures as facilitation for networked operation command structures; 9 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
  • 10. Objective – Information exchange among civilian and military actors in order to provide common, timely and relevant situational awareness; – Decision-making tools based on joined-up situation analyses, in-cluding their use to secure public acceptance and support; – Standardized skills development and integrated information sys-tems for a effective coordination of resources as well as to coop-eration between EU Member States; – Training schemes for technology use, including new social net-work technologies; 10 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
  • 11. Objective – Advancement and integration of approaches to foresight, with special consideration of the following:  User-driven shifts;  User experience as a dominant influence in the technology trend;  Identification and analysis of disruptors from normative (desired) end-states. 11 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
  • 12. in relation to a theoretical Security[zation]-Framework Political security Economic Societal security security Comprehensive Approach Environmental security Military security …and so on... Source: Buzan, Weaver, Wilde; A New Framework for Analysis, 2002 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
  • 13. Sources  Focus Deliverable-D3.2  Buzan, Weaver, Wilde: A New Framework for Analysis, 2002 13 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios
  • 14. http://www.focusproject.eu FOCUS is co-funded by the European Commission under the 7th Framework Programme, theme "security", call FP7-SEC-2010-1, work programme topic 6.3-2 "Fore sighting the contribution of security research to meet the future EU roles“, Grant Agreement no. 261633. 14 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios