Focus mid term symposium

1. EU Roles as a Global Security
Actor in the Future
EU Roles as a Global
Security Actor in the
Future
Foresight Security Scenarios
Todor Tagarev, Valeri
13/03/2012
Ratchev, Uwe Nerlich

2. Work in progress
 This presentation reflects FOCUS research
work in progress
 Do not refer to examples of scenarios and/or
roles made in this presentation!
2 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios

3. Outline
 WP6.2 tasks for CSDM & CESS
 Exploratory process
 Preliminary findings
3 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios

4. WP6.2 tasks for CSDM & CESS
1. “Scenarios from politics”: Provide an explanation
why the EU has come up with defining the
‘Petersberg tasks’ up to the Lisbon Treaty
2. “Projection”: Extrapolate current trends, drivers, …
and lessons learned (till 2020-2025)
3. Exploratory foresight: Explore the space of context
scenarios up to 2035 and respective future roles of
the EU as a global security actor
 This presentation addresses the third task
4 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios

5. 5 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios

6. Research Process (WP6)
Scoping the
problem space
Context
А1
scenarios and
roles А2 Security rese -
arch scenarios
А3
6 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios

7. Research Process (WP6.2)
Develop context
scenarios
Identify alterna -
А2.1
tive future roles
Develop illustra -
А2.2
tive mission sce -
narios А2.3
7 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios

8. Develop Context Scenarios (A2.1)
Identify
relevant
factors Identify and
describe
distinct 'states' Assess
probabilities of
distinct 'states' Assess
compatibility
of 'states'
Identify plausible
combinations of
factors Select
representative
combinations Write the texts of
the scenarios
8 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios

9. Relevant factors
A. Global context
B. Globalisation and economic growth
C. Security environment
D. Societal Demographics & Migration
E. EU Modalities
9 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios

10. Global context
A1. Dominant global competitions
A2. Multiple mutual dependencies
A3. Disruptive potentials
A4. Regional dynamics
A5. Flattening world
10 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios

11. Globalisation and economic growth
B1. Accelerated globalisation and growth
B2. Cyclic globalisation and growth
B3. Retarded globalisation and growth
11 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios

12. Security environment
C1. Global collective security architecture
C2. Cooperative security
C3. Fragmented security
12 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios

13. Societal Demographics & Migration
D1. Balanced demographics and limited
migration
D2. Expanding demographic gaps and
controlled migration
D3. Migration tsunami
13 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios

14. EU Modalities
E1. Europe as a multiple identity
E2. Institutional Europe (EU Lisbon Treaty+;)
E3. Differentiations (Europe at ‘two+ speeds’,
selective cooperation, …)
E4. Disintegration
E5. Marginalisation
14 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios

15. 15 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios

16. 16 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios

17. Complexity
 6-7 factors
 Number of states:
– Distinct
– Mutually exclusive
 Exhaustive
 Number of combinations: NA*NB*NC*ND*…
17 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios

18. Practical considerations
 Level of complexity suitable for participatory
foresight
 Ns = NA + NB + NC + ND + …
 Number of pairs ~ Ns2
 Here – 5 factors, 19 states
18 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios

19. Context scenarios
 0 – “most probable”
 2-3 alternative scenarios
 Plausible
 Span [the more demanding part of] the
problem space
19 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios

20. Definition of roles
 Dimensions
 Possible values along the dimensions
 Plausible combinations of values
 Selection of distinct combinations, spanning
[potentially] the space of security research
requirements
 Plausible explanation for the emergence of a
particular role in certain context
20 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios

21. 21 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios

22. Potential EU roles
 “Guarantor of energy supply”
a3b4c1d7e2
(add aspects of the comprehensive approach)
 “Cyber role”
 “Role in /protecting assets in/ outer space”
 “Protect SLOC”
 …
22 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios

23. In conclusion
 Tension between elaborating a framework for
dedicated research and one for soliciting the
opinion of outside experts and potential end
users
 Need for a decision making chain that could
be tracked
23 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios

24. http://www.focusproject.eu
FOCUS is co-funded by the European
Commission under the 7th Framework
Programme, theme "security", call
FP7-SEC-2010-1, work programme topic 6.3-2
"Fore sighting the contribution of security
research to meet the future EU roles".
24 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios