1. Over 35 Years of Reliable Investing™
The Wisdom of Great Investors
Insights from Some of History’s Greatest Investment Minds
During this presentation and subsequent questions and answers, Davis Advisors’ investment professionals may make candid statements and observations regarding
investment strategies, individual securities and economic and market conditions. However, there is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts will
prove to be correct. These comments may also include the expression of opinions that are speculative in nature and should not be relied on as statements of fact.
3. Avoid Self-Destructive Investor Behavior
“Individuals who cannot master their
emotions are ill-suited to profit from
the investment process.”
Benjamin Graham
Father of Value Investing
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4. Avoid Self-Destructive Investor Behavior
Average Stock Fund Return vs. Average Stock Fund Investor Return
(1988–2007)
15%
Average Annual Return
11.6%
10%
The “Investor Behavior”
Penalty
5%
4.5%
0%
Average Stock Fund Investor Return
Average Stock Fund Return
Source: Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior by Dalbar, Inc. (July 2008) and Lipper. Dalbar computed the “average stock fund investor” returns by using industry cash flow reports from
the Investment Company Institute. The “average stock fund return” figures represent the average return for all funds listed in Lipper’s U.S. Diversified Equity fund classification model.
Dalbar also measured the behavior of a “systematic investor” and “asset allocation investor.” The annualized return for these investor types was 5.8% and 3.5% respectively over the time
frame measured. All Dalbar returns were computed using the S&P 500® Index. Returns assume reinvestment of dividends and capital gain distributions. Past performance is not a guar-
antee of future results.
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5. Understand That Crises Are Inevitable
“History provides a crucial insight regarding
market crises: They are inevitable, painful
and ultimately surmountable.”
Shelby M.C. Davis
Advisor and Founder, Davis Advisors
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6. Understand That Crises Are Inevitable
Despite Decades of Uncertainty, the Historical Trend of the Stock Market Has Been Positive
S&P 500® Index 12/31/07
1,600
1,500
1,400
The 1980s
1,300
1,200
1,100
1,000
900
800
700
Today
Junk Bonds, LBOs,
600
Black Monday
500
The 1970s
400
Sub-Prime Debacle,
300 Economic Uncertainty,
Financial Crisis
200
Nifty-50, Inflation,
The 2000s
The 1990s
’73-’74 Bear Market
100
S&L Crisis, Russian Default, Internet Bubble, Tech
Long Term Capital, Wreck, Telecom Bust
Asian Contagion
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70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
84 00
Source: Yahoo Finance. Graph represents the S&P 500® Index from January 1, 1970 through December 31, 2007 with all dividends and capital gains reinvested. Past performance is not a
guarantee of future results.
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7. Don’t Attempt to Time the Market
“Far more money has been lost by investors
preparing for corrections or trying to
anticipate corrections than has been lost in
the corrections themselves.”
Peter Lynch
Legendary Investor and Author
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8. Don’t Attempt to Time the Market
The Danger of Trying to Time the Market
15 Year Average Annual Returns (1993–2007)
15%
15 Year Average Annual Return
10% 10.5%
7.1%
5%
2.2%
0%
-3.2%
-5%
-7.4%
-10%
Stayed the Course Missed Best 10 Days Missed Best 30 Days Missed Best 60 Days Missed Best 90 Days
Investor Profile
Source: Bloomberg and Davis Advisors. The market is represented by the S&P 500® Index. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
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9. Be Patient
“Despite inevitable periods of uncertainty,
stocks have rewarded patient,
long-term investors.”
Christopher C. Davis
Portfolio Manager, Davis Advisors
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. All equity investments involve risk. No investor is guaranteed a profit.
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10. Be Patient
One Year Returns for the Dow Jones Industrial Average
(1928–2007)
80
70
60
1 Year Annual Return
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
28 32 36 40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96 00 04 07
In 59 out of 80 One Year Periods (74% of the Time), the Market Delivered a Positive Return
Five Year Returns for the Dow Jones Industrial Average
(Five Year Periods Ending 1932–2007)
30
5 Year Average Annual Return
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
32 36 40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96 00 04 07
In 71 out of 76 Five Year Periods (93% of the Time), the Market Delivered a Positive Return
Source: The performance was obtained from a combination of sources, including, but not limited to, Thomson Financial, Lipper and index websites. Returns are annualized total returns.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
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11. Don’t Let Emotions Guide Your Investment Decisions
“I will tell you how to become rich.
Be fearful when others are greedy.
Be greedy when others are fearful.”
Warren Buffett
Chairman, Berkshire Hathaway
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12. Don’t Let Emotions Guide Your Investment Decisions
Domestic Equity Fund Returns vs. Net New Flows
(1/1/97–6/30/08)
35
280
Stocks deliver strong
Yearly Net New Flows ($Billions)
30
240 returns and euphoric
29.7
investors push flows to
+ – Calendar Year Return (%)
25
200 an all-time high right
before the collapse.
20
160 24.2
21.0
15
120 18.2
13.7
10
80 11.5
7.1 5
40 6.9
0 0
-2.8
-5
-40
-9.0
After a period of
-10
-80 poor returns, fearful
-14.0 investors become
-15
-120 cautious and miss
the recovery.
-20
-160 -21.4
-25
-200
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 6/08
Source: Morningstar and Strategic Research Institute as of June 30, 2008. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
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13. Recognize That Short-Term Underperformance Is Inevitable
“The basic question facing us is whether it’s
possible for a superior investment manager to
underperform.... The assumption widely held is
‘no.’ And yet if you look at the records, it’s not
only possible, it’s inevitable.”
Robert Kirby
Founder, Capital Guardian Trust Company
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14. Recognize That Short-Term Underperformance Is Inevitable
Underperformance Is Inevitable
Percentage of Top Quartile Large Cap Equity Managers Whose Performance Fell
Into the Bottom Half, Quartile or Decile for at Least One Three Year Period
100%
98%
80%
75%
60%
40%
43%
20%
0%
Bottom Quartile
Bottom Half Bottom Decile
Source: Davis Advisors. 160 managers from eVestment Alliance’s large cap universe whose 10 year average annualized performance ranked in the top quartile from
January 1, 1998 – December 31, 2007. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
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15. Disregard Short-Term Forecasts and Predictions
“The function of economic forecasting is to
make astrology look respectable.”
John Kenneth Galbraith
Economist and Author
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16. Disregard Short-Term Forecasts and Predictions
Six Month Average Forecasted Direction vs. Actual Direction of Interest Rates
The Wall Street Journal Survey of Economists (12/82– 6/08)
Date Forecast Actual Result
Date Forecast Actual Result Date Forecast Actual Result
12/00 Wrong
12/82 Right 12/91 Right
6/01 Wrong
6/83 Wrong 6/92 Wrong
12/01 Right
12/83 Wrong 12/92 Right
6/02* Right
6/84 Wrong 6/93 Wrong
12/02 Wrong
12/84 Wrong 12/93 Wrong
6/03 Wrong
6/85 Wrong 6/94 Wrong
12/03 Right
12/85 Wrong 12/94 Wrong
6/04 Right
6/86 Wrong 6/95 Wrong
12/04 Wrong
12/86 Right 12/95 Right
6/05 Wrong
6/87 Wrong 6/96 Right
12/05 Right
12/87 Wrong 12/96 Right
6/06 Right
6/88 Right 6/97 Wrong
12/06 Wrong
12/88 Right 12/97 Wrong
6/07 Wrong
6/89 Wrong 6/98 Wrong
12/07 Wrong
12/89 Wrong 12/98 Wrong
6/08 Wrong
6/90 Wrong 6/99 Wrong
12/90 Right 12/99 Wrong
6/91 Wrong 6/00 Right
The forecasters got the direction wrong 67% of the time.
Source: Legg Mason and The Wall Street Journal Survey of Economists. Observations: Six month “average” forecast of economists. Semi-annual survey by The Wall Street Journal.
Last updated June 30, 2008. *Benchmark changed to 10 Year Treasury. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
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17.
18. Conclusion
“You make most of your money in a
bear market, you just don’t realize
it at the time.”
Shelby Cullom Davis
Diplomat, Legendary Investor and
Founder of the Davis Investment Discipline
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19.
20. The Wisdom of Great Investors
Avoid Self-Destructive Investor Behavior
I
Understand That Crises Are Inevitable
I
Don’t Attempt to Time the Market
I
Be Patient
I
Don’t Let Emotions Guide Your Investment Decisions
I
Recognize That Short-Term Underperformance Is Inevitable
I
Disregard Short-Term Forecasts and Predictions
I
Realize That You Make Most of Your Money in a Bear Market
I
Equity markets are volatile and an investor may lose money. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
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