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BRICSBRICSBRICS AND THE GLOBAL ECONOMY
Brazil Russia India China South Africa
By
Dr. Bandi Ram Prasad
bandi.ramprasad@ftkmc.com
w w w. f t k m c . c o m
BR
Brazil
producing coal, oil, gas, chemicals, and metals; all forms of ma
production, and advanced electronic components, shipbuildin
equipment; electric power generating and transmitting equipm
processing,steel,transportationequipment,cement,mining,pet
iron, steel, aluminum, and other metals, coal; machine building;
electronics; food processing; transportation equipment, including
satellites South Africa mining (world's largest producer of platin
commercial ship repair Brazil textiles, shoes, chemicals, cement,
and extractive industries producing coal, oil, gas, chemicals, and
includingradar,missileproduction,andadvancedelectroniccomp
constructionequipment;electricpowergeneratingandtransmitti
food processing, steel, transportation equipment, cement, mini
processing, iron, steel, aluminum, and other metals, coal; machin
toys,andelectronics;foodprocessing;transportationequipment,
vehicles, satellites South Africa mining (world's largest produce
foodstuffs,commercialshiprepair Brazil textiles,shoes,chemica
of mining and extractive industries producing coal, oil, gas, che
industries including radar, missile production, and advanced elec
tractors, and construction equipment; electric power generating
textiles, chemicals, food processing, steel, transportation equipm
mining and ore processing, iron, steel, aluminum, and other me
including footwear, toys, and electronics; food processing; trans
commercialspacelaunchvehicles,satellitesSouth Africa mining
chemicals, fertilizer, foodstuffs, commercial ship repairBrazil tex
Russia complete range of mining and extractive industries produ
vehicles; defense industries including radar, missile production,
agricultural machinery, tractors, and construction equipment; elec
handicrafts India textiles, chemicals, food processing, steel, trans
industrial output; mining and ore processing, iron, steel, alumin
consumer products, including footwear, toys, and electronic
telecommunications equipment, commercial space launch vehic
machinery,textiles,ironandsteel,chemicals,fertilizer,foodstuffs,co
textiles,shoes,chemicals,cement,lumber,ironore,tin,ste
BRICS
AND THE
GLOBAL ECONOMY
The BRICS nations have emerged as the most
watched and promising group. From being an idea
for investment, BRICS have grown to assume
importance and significance in terms of strong
domestic growth, contribution to the global
economy, expanding financial markets, enhanced
scope of engagement with other developing
countries, etc.
The global economic crisis, while it impacted the
BRICS nations to a certain extent, also provided an
important opportunity to harness increased
growth opportunities caused by the slowing down
of a sizeable part of the advanced world.
However, this would entail a great amount of
foresight and wisdom in designing growth-
inducing domestic economic policies, with greater
thrust on efficiency and inclusion.
‘BRICS and the Global Economy’ presents a few
important highlights of the BRICS nations. This brief
is made as a part of the presentation for the BRICS
Academic Forum, being held at Durban, South
Africa, on March 10-13, 2013. The Indian delegation
to the Academic Forum is supported by Observer
Research Foundation, New Delhi.
BR
Brazil
producing coal, oil, gas, chemicals, and metals; all forms of ma
production, and advanced electronic components, shipbuildin
equipment; electric power generating and transmitting equipm
processing,steel,transportationequipment,cement,mining,pet
iron, steel, aluminum, and other metals, coal; machine building;
electronics; food processing; transportation equipment, including
satellites South Africa mining (world's largest producer of platin
commercial ship repair Brazil textiles, shoes, chemicals, cement,
and extractive industries producing coal, oil, gas, chemicals, and
includingradar,missileproduction,andadvancedelectroniccomp
constructionequipment;electricpowergeneratingandtransmitti
food processing, steel, transportation equipment, cement, mini
processing, iron, steel, aluminum, and other metals, coal; machin
toys,andelectronics;foodprocessing;transportationequipment,
vehicles, satellites South Africa mining (world's largest produce
foodstuffs,commercialshiprepair Brazil textiles,shoes,chemica
of mining and extractive industries producing coal, oil, gas, che
industries including radar, missile production, and advanced elec
tractors, and construction equipment; electric power generating
textiles, chemicals, food processing, steel, transportation equipm
mining and ore processing, iron, steel, aluminum, and other me
including footwear, toys, and electronics; food processing; trans
commercialspacelaunchvehicles,satellitesSouth Africa mining
chemicals, fertilizer, foodstuffs, commercial ship repairBrazil tex
Russia complete range of mining and extractive industries produ
vehicles; defense industries including radar, missile production,
agricultural machinery, tractors, and construction equipment; elec
handicrafts India textiles, chemicals, food processing, steel, trans
industrial output; mining and ore processing, iron, steel, alumin
consumer products, including footwear, toys, and electronic
telecommunications equipment, commercial space launch vehic
machinery,textiles,ironandsteel,chemicals,fertilizer,foodstuffs,co
textiles,shoes,chemicals,cement,lumber,ironore,tin,ste
RICS
Russia completerangeofminingandextractiveindustries
achine building from rolling mills to high-performance aircraft and space vehicles; defense industries including radar, missile
ng; road and rail transportation equipment; communications equipment; agricultural machinery, tractors, and construction
ment; medical and scientific instruments; consumer durables, textiles, foodstuffs, handicrafts India textiles, chemicals, food
troleum,machinery,software,pharmaceuticalsChina worldleaderingrossvalueofindustrialoutput;miningandoreprocessing,
; armaments; textiles and apparel; petroleum; cement; chemicals; fertilizers; consumer products, including footwear, toys, and
g automobiles, rail cars and locomotives, ships, and aircraft; telecommunications equipment, commercial space launch vehicles,
num, gold, chromium), automobile assembly, metalworking, machinery, textiles, iron and steel, chemicals, fertilizer, foodstuffs,
lumber, iron ore, tin, steel, aircraft, motor vehicles and parts, other machinery and equipment Russia complete range of mining
d metals; all forms of machine building from rolling mills to high-performance aircraft and space vehicles; defense industries
ponents,shipbuilding;roadandrailtransportationequipment;communicationsequipment;agriculturalmachinery,tractors,and
ingequipment;medicalandscientificinstruments;consumerdurables,textiles,foodstuffs,handicraftsIndia textiles,chemicals,
ing, petroleum, machinery, software, pharmaceuticals China world leader in gross value of industrial output; mining and ore
ne building; armaments; textiles and apparel; petroleum; cement; chemicals; fertilizers; consumer products, including footwear,
,includingautomobiles,railcarsandlocomotives,ships,andaircraft;telecommunicationsequipment,commercialspacelaunch
er of platinum, gold, chromium), automobile assembly, metalworking, machinery, textiles, iron and steel, chemicals, fertilizer,
als,cement,lumber,ironore,tin,steel,aircraft,motorvehiclesandparts,othermachineryandequipmentRussia completerange
emicals, and metals; all forms of machine building from rolling mills to high-performance aircraft and space vehicles; defense
ctronic components, shipbuilding; road and rail transportation equipment; communications equipment; agricultural machinery,
g and transmitting equipment; medical and scientific instruments; consumer durables, textiles, foodstuffs, handicrafts India
ment, cement, mining, petroleum, machinery, software, pharmaceuticals China world leader in gross value of industrial output;
etals, coal; machine building; armaments; textiles and apparel; petroleum; cement; chemicals; fertilizers; consumer products,
sportation equipment, including automobiles, rail cars and locomotives, ships, and aircraft; telecommunications equipment,
g(world'slargestproducerofplatinum,gold,chromium),automobileassembly,metalworking,machinery,textiles,ironandsteel,
xtiles, shoes, chemicals, cement, lumber, iron ore, tin, steel, aircraft, motor vehicles and parts, other machinery and equipment
ucing coal, oil, gas, chemicals, and metals; all forms of machine building from rolling mills to high-performance aircraft and space
, and advanced electronic components, shipbuilding; road and rail transportation equipment; communications equipment;
ctric power generating and transmitting equipment; medical and scientific instruments; consumer durables, textiles, foodstuffs,
sportation equipment, cement, mining, petroleum, machinery, software, pharmaceuticals China world leader in gross value of
num, and other metals, coal; machine building; armaments; textiles and apparel; petroleum; cement; chemicals; fertilizers;
cs; food processing; transportation equipment, including automobiles, rail cars and locomotives, ships, and aircraft;
cles, satellites South Africa mining (world's largest producer of platinum, gold, chromium), automobile assembly, metalworking,
ommercialshiprepair
eel,aircraft,motorvehiclesandparts,othermachineryandequipment
RICS
Russia completerangeofminingandextractiveindustries
achine building from rolling mills to high-performance aircraft and space vehicles; defense industries including radar, missile
ng; road and rail transportation equipment; communications equipment; agricultural machinery, tractors, and construction
ment; medical and scientific instruments; consumer durables, textiles, foodstuffs, handicrafts India textiles, chemicals, food
troleum,machinery,software,pharmaceuticalsChina worldleaderingrossvalueofindustrialoutput;miningandoreprocessing,
; armaments; textiles and apparel; petroleum; cement; chemicals; fertilizers; consumer products, including footwear, toys, and
g automobiles, rail cars and locomotives, ships, and aircraft; telecommunications equipment, commercial space launch vehicles,
num, gold, chromium), automobile assembly, metalworking, machinery, textiles, iron and steel, chemicals, fertilizer, foodstuffs,
lumber, iron ore, tin, steel, aircraft, motor vehicles and parts, other machinery and equipment Russia complete range of mining
d metals; all forms of machine building from rolling mills to high-performance aircraft and space vehicles; defense industries
ponents,shipbuilding;roadandrailtransportationequipment;communicationsequipment;agriculturalmachinery,tractors,and
ingequipment;medicalandscientificinstruments;consumerdurables,textiles,foodstuffs,handicraftsIndia textiles,chemicals,
ing, petroleum, machinery, software, pharmaceuticals China world leader in gross value of industrial output; mining and ore
ne building; armaments; textiles and apparel; petroleum; cement; chemicals; fertilizers; consumer products, including footwear,
,includingautomobiles,railcarsandlocomotives,ships,andaircraft;telecommunicationsequipment,commercialspacelaunch
er of platinum, gold, chromium), automobile assembly, metalworking, machinery, textiles, iron and steel, chemicals, fertilizer,
als,cement,lumber,ironore,tin,steel,aircraft,motorvehiclesandparts,othermachineryandequipmentRussia completerange
emicals, and metals; all forms of machine building from rolling mills to high-performance aircraft and space vehicles; defense
ctronic components, shipbuilding; road and rail transportation equipment; communications equipment; agricultural machinery,
g and transmitting equipment; medical and scientific instruments; consumer durables, textiles, foodstuffs, handicrafts India
ment, cement, mining, petroleum, machinery, software, pharmaceuticals China world leader in gross value of industrial output;
etals, coal; machine building; armaments; textiles and apparel; petroleum; cement; chemicals; fertilizers; consumer products,
sportation equipment, including automobiles, rail cars and locomotives, ships, and aircraft; telecommunications equipment,
g(world'slargestproducerofplatinum,gold,chromium),automobileassembly,metalworking,machinery,textiles,ironandsteel,
xtiles, shoes, chemicals, cement, lumber, iron ore, tin, steel, aircraft, motor vehicles and parts, other machinery and equipment
ucing coal, oil, gas, chemicals, and metals; all forms of machine building from rolling mills to high-performance aircraft and space
, and advanced electronic components, shipbuilding; road and rail transportation equipment; communications equipment;
ctric power generating and transmitting equipment; medical and scientific instruments; consumer durables, textiles, foodstuffs,
sportation equipment, cement, mining, petroleum, machinery, software, pharmaceuticals China world leader in gross value of
num, and other metals, coal; machine building; armaments; textiles and apparel; petroleum; cement; chemicals; fertilizers;
cs; food processing; transportation equipment, including automobiles, rail cars and locomotives, ships, and aircraft;
cles, satellites South Africa mining (world's largest producer of platinum, gold, chromium), automobile assembly, metalworking,
ommercialshiprepair
eel,aircraft,motorvehiclesandparts,othermachineryandequipment
Overview
Growing Size of the Economy
Expanding Significance of Financial Sector
Increasing Engagement with Developing Countries
Degree of Divergence
Scope for Reforms
Prospects and Forecast
4
8
18
30
34
40
42
OVERVIEW
4
The BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) are considered as
the new building blocks of the global economy. In the background of the
deceleration of the developed economies in terms of growth and economic
expansion, BRICS assumed greater significance and wider acceptance as emerging
superpowers.
The BRICS economy rose from 11percent of global GDP in 1990 to 25 percent in 2011
and is poised to reach 40 percent by 2050. A Goldman Sachs paper shows BRICS,
which overtook Japan in terms of GDP by 2005, will cross the US by 2015 and G7 by
2030. The rise of BRICS is described as “great transformation”. “The relative
importance of BRICS as an engine of new demand growth and spending power
may shift more dramatically and quickly than many expect. Higher growth in these
economies could offset the impact of graying populations and slower growth in
today’s advanced economies.” This is how the paper above described the potency
andthepotentialforthisemergingpowerfuleconomicbloc.
Growth and diversity coexist in the community as a whole. While all countries in the
BRICS community enjoyed higher growth for a large part of the last decade, each
country is also known for distinctiveness. Russia is a commodity-driven economy,
China is a powerhouse of exports, India is a domestic demand-driven economy,
Brazil has much developed economic structure and South Africa represents the
fast-growing region of Africa. Growth is the common glue that makes this
community a powerful and prominent force in the global economy. All the five
countries in the BRICS community play an important role in G20 shaping global
economicpolicyandfinancialstability.
Financial markets in the BRICS community have expanded in a rapid manner
simultaneously with economic growth. Between 1990 and 2010, market
capitalization of Brazil rose from a very low of about 4 percent of GDP to 74 percent,
India from 12 percent to 93 percent, Russia and China from almost nothing to 70
percent and 81 percent, respectively. In South Africa, it has more than doubled from
123 percent to 278 percent. Similarly, value of share trading in China (186 percent),
Russia(135percent)andIndia(114percent)ishigherthantherespectiveGDPlevels,
with South Africa and Brazil catching up very fast. Between 2001 and 2007, stocks
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Financial Technologies Knowledge Management Co. Ltd.
soared more than double in China and rose nearly 400 in Brazil and India.
Banksfromthesefive countries figured amongthetop100 banksin theworld.Bank
Credit/GDP ratio is highest in South Africa (193 percent), followed by China (145
percent),Brazil(97percent),andIndia(69percent).
Growth of the BRICS community, which was on rapid ascent since 1990s, faced
constraints following the global economic and financial crisis that began in 2008.
With economic slowdown and financial markets setback in the US and Europe,
exports from BRICS to developed markets and investments into their respective
economies declined adversely, impacting the growth prospects. Though initially it
appearedthatBRICSmighthaveovercometheimpactoftheglobaleconomiccrisis,
the deceleration is gaining momentum in the last couple of years, which has
become a cause of worry for the economic policy in these countries. The real GDP
of BRICS, which was over 8 percent in 2010 declined to 6.5 percent in 2011 and is
expectedtofurtherfallto4.87percentin2012and4.7percentin2013.
The growth prospects of individual countries in the BRICS community, too, are
raising worries. Brazil that had a real GDP growth of 7.6 percent in 2010 fell to
2.7percent in 2011 with the weakness expected to continue in 2012 and the
estimates for 2013 is pegged at 2.5 percent. Russia’s growth in 2012 and 2013 is
estimated at 2 percent. From an annual growth rate of 7.4 percent during 2000-2010,
India’s growth is expected to slide to the fringes of 5 percent in 2012. From an
average growth of 10 percent for the last 25 years, China’s economic growth is
expected to slip to levels of 6.5 percent, a trend that is forecast to prevail for a few
more years. Inflation, too, emerged as a major issue. Currencies of the BRICs
community, with the exception of China, has experienced varied levels of volatility
following the onset of the global economic crisis. The stock market value of BRICS is
atathree-yearlow.TopglobalcompaniesfromtheBRICScountriessufferederosion
inmarketvalues,leadingtosizeableslippageintheirrespectiveglobalrankings.
In this context, the BRICS community stands at an important point of challenge.
While the last two decades have galloped these countries to a position of
prominence in global economics, a new set of constraints began to arise in the
percent
OVERVIEW
6
background of global economic slowdown. Some critics tend to club BRICS as yet
another grouping that failed to overtake the US despite great promise in the initial
period, citing instances of Europe (1960s), Japan (1970s and 1980s), the Asian Tigers
(1990s), etc. More worrying is the fact that the slowdown of BRICS, which is
contributing to nearly half the global economic expansion, may reduce the scope
forspeedyrecoveryoftheworldeconomy.
These developments provide ample scope for the policy makers in the BRICS
governments to come up with proactive policies that reinvigorate their domestic
economic climate as also establish stronger linkages with other emerging markets.
Groupings based on economic growth and prospects such as Next Eleven* and
Frontier Markets** are gaining greater significance. It is important for BRICS to forge
stronger relationships with these economies to expand domestic markets to revive
growth. This will also help the BRICS nations to reduce to some extent excessive
dependenceondevelopedmarketsforexports.
In this context, the agenda for development cooperation among the BRICS
communitycouldalsoincludethefollowing:
a. The BRICS community is characterized by a strong middle class with potential for
higher savings. Increasing reliance on market-related instruments such as stocks
and other structured products, which suffered badly after the financial crisis, has
dampened the spirit of investors. It is important to bring investors back to the
financialmarkets.Inthiscontext,aneedexistsfordesigningmoresaferandlong-
term investments that could be easily understood and managed by retail
investors.Thiswouldbeessentialforcapitalformationandinvestment.
b. Small and medium enterprises are predominant in the BRICS countries, and
most of them are dependent on bank financing or other form of resources. It is
important to develop specialized capital markets to solely cater to the needs
andrequirementsof smallandmediumenterprises.
c. Opportunities for cross-border listing and trading are abundant among the BRICS
countries. A limited effort of listing index futures began, which needs to be further
strengthened to extend to listings and trading of companies with global operations
andbusiness.
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Financial Technologies Knowledge Management Co. Ltd.
d. Scope for designing special financial instruments with sovereign guarantees
could be explored to develop diversification of investments among individual
investorsandcompaniesintheBRICScountries.
e. Given the prowess BRICS has in technology, joint endeavours could be evolved
foritseffectiveuseinpromotingfinancialinclusion.
f. The proposed BRICS Development Bank could move towards generating
consensus of creating institutional mechanism to provide infrastructure
financing,sovitalforthegrowthtocontinueandsustaininthesecountries.
g. A special task force may be created within the BRICS Secretariat to engage with
other fast-growing nations in the N11 and Frontier Markets to cooperate and
collaborate on growth-inducing policies that would be mutually beneficial and
productive.
h. Greater exchange of information, knowledge, skills and expertise may be
evolved in areas of the financial sector, information technology, process
management, financial education and investor literacy, which could help
thesecountriesincapacitybuildingvitalforgrowthtosustain.
g. In view of the growing importance of the BRICS community, it might be useful
to bring out an annual review of the BRICS economy and finance that will
address to various issues of growth and development pertinent to the
countriesinthegrouping.
Challenges to growth are not uncommon for countries and grouping. What matters is
the response mechanism and collaborative approach in overcoming the pressures.
The BRICS community has not only pursued higher growth for a longer term but also
realized the importance of cooperation among themselves. BRICS forums of various
natureandsignificanceareanimportantindicatorofgrowingrelianceoncooperative
endeavours to scale up and sustain growth. The important task ahead of the BRICS
communityistoprovethatgrowthcanbelong-lastingsoastomakeitspresenceinthe
globaleconomicsandfinancearealforcetoreckonwith.
* The N11 are the Next Eleven emerging countries grouped by Goldman Sachs, which include
Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Korea, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Turkey and
Vietnam.**MSCIBarra has 26 countriesclassifiedas FrontierMarkets
8
GROWING SIZE OF THE ECONOMY1
BRICS in the Global Economy,1991-2015
Sources: IMF and World Economic Outlook, October 2010.
1
WEO projections for 2015
2
Emerging market economies excluding BRICS
3
At market exchange rate
1
BRICS in the Global Economy, 1991-2015 ( In percent of world total; period average)
Population
3
GDP
Exports
Imports
BRICS
2
OtherEMEs
UnitedStates
EuroArea
BRICS
OtherEMEs
UnitedStates
EuroArea
BRICS
OtherEMEs
UnitedStates
EuroArea
BRICS
OtherEMEs
UnitedStates
EuroArea
44.7
23.1
4.8
5.6
5.8
10.6
26.2
24.8
4.2
13
13.3
34.7
4
14.4
14.6
34
43.6
23.2
4.7
5.1
8.5
10.8
30.6
21.3
7.9
15.8
12
30.9
7
14.8
17.1
29.5
42.8
23.6
4.6
4.9
13.1
13.3
25.6
22
12.4
18.6
9.7
29.1
10.5
17.2
14.1
28.5
41.8
23.9
4.5
4.6
21.6
15.4
22
16.6
20.1
18.3
9.6
23
18.8
18
12.3
21.9
1991-94 2000-04 2005-09 2015
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Financial Technologies Knowledge Management Co. Ltd.
BRICS Moves Up in USD-Denominated GDP Ranking
Source: GS Global ECS Research*projections
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
1980
Brazil
UnitedStates
Japan
Germany
France
UnitedKingdom
Italy
Canada
Mexico
Spain
Argentina
China
India
Netherlands
Australia
SaudiArabia
Sweden
Belgium
Switzerland
Indonesia
2000
Brazil
Russia
UnitedStates
Japan
Germany
UnitedKingdom
France
China
Italy
Canada
Mexico
Spain
Korea
India
Australia
Netherlands
Argentina
Turkey
Switzerland
Sweden
2010
Brazil
Russia
UnitedStates
China
Japan
Germany
France
UnitedKingdom
Italy
Canada
India
Spain
Australia
Mexico
Korea
Netherlands
Turkey
Indonesia
Switzerland
Poland
2050*
Brazil
Russia
China
UnitedStates
India
Japan
Mexico
Indonesia
UnitedKindgon
France
Germany
Nigeria
Turkey
Egypt
Canada
Italy
Pakistan
Iran
Philippines
Spain
10
GROWING SIZE OF THE ECONOMY1
Nominal GDP
Country
Brazil
Russia
India
China
SouthAfrica
BRICS
World
2000
645
260
475
1198
133
2710
32334
2010
919
416
973
3246
188
5742
41428
Growth
43%
60%
105%
171%
41%
112%
28%
CAGR
4%
5%
7%
10%
4%
8%
3%
Source: World Bank
Real GDP: GDP (Constant 2000 USD bn)
Country
Brazil
Russia
India
China
SouthAfrica
World
US
2000
642
260
476
1198
133
32216
21149
2010
2090
1480
1632
5878
364
62911
31717
Source:IMF
GDP (Nominal USD bn)
BRICS GDP
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Imports of Goods & Services
Country
Brazil
Russia
India
China
SouthAfrica
BRICS
World
2000
72
61
73
251
33
490
8025
2010
244
323
440
1,521
100
2,629
17714
10Y Growth
237%
429%
502%
507%
203%
436%
121%
CAGR
13%
18%
20%
20%
12%
18%
8%
Source: World Bank
Imports of Goods and Services (USD bn)
Exports of Goods & Services
Country
Brazil
Russia
India
China
SouthAfrica
BRICS
World
2000
65
115
60
280
37
556
7986
2010
234
446
349
1,753
100
2,881
17658
10Y Growth
262%
289%
483%
527%
169%
418%
121%
CAGR
14%
15%
19%
20%
10%
18%
8%
Source: World Bank
Exports of Goods & Services (USD bn)
12
GROWING SIZE OF THE ECONOMY1
Total Reserves
Country
Brazil
Russia
India
China
SouthAfrica
BRICS
World
2000
33
28
41
172
8
282
2231
2010
289
479
300
2,914
44
4,026
10786
10Y Growth
776%
1611%
632%
1594%
450%
1328%
383%
CAGR
24%
33%
22%
33%
19%
30%
17%
Source: World Bank
Total Reserves (includes gold, current USD bn)
The Growing Dominance of BRICS
Source: GS Global ECS Research
80 90 00 10 20 30 40
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
00
The Growing Weight of BRICS, N11 and other EMs in the Global Economy
BRICSN 11Other EMsDMs
* Calculated using weights
50
Share of PPP-Adjusted GDP Levels
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India Has High Growth Potential
Source: IMF, GS Global ECS Research
1980-89 1990-99 2000-10 2010-19 2020-29 2030-39 2040-50
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
Potential Growth in India May Outstrip China
RussiaIndiaChinaBrazil
Average GDP Growth%
Africa Shows Great Potential
Source: IMF, GS Global ECS Research
1980-89 1990-99 2000-10 2010-19 2020-29 2030-39 2040-50
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
Africa Shows Great Potential
AFRICACEELATAMASIA
GDP Growth (PPP-weighted)
MENANORTH AMERICAEURO AREA
Note: LATAM: Latin America; CEE: Central and Eastern Europe; MENA: Middle East and North Africa
14
GROWING SIZE OF THE ECONOMY1
BRICs Have Become a Key Player in Global Trade Flows
BRICs Are Major Consumers of Commodities
00 01 02 03 04 05 06
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
BRICs Have Become a Key Player in Global Trade Flows
Source: IMF, GS Global ECS Research
07 08 09 10
Share of PPP-Adjusted GDP Levels
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
Russia
India
China
Brazil
BRICs Total Trade (USD bn, rhs)
% of Total
World Trade
(lhs)
00 01 02 03 04 05 06
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
A Key Consumer of Global Commodities
Source: World Bank, GS Global ECS Research
07 08
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Russia
India
China
Brazil
BRICs total energy usage (rhs)
% of Total
World Energy
Usage (lhs)
Kt of
Oil Equivalent
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BRICs Gain Market Share in World Exports
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Market Share of World Merchandise Exports
Source: www.unido.org
China Russia India Brazil
20071995
4.18
10.47
1.14
2.51
0.76
1.28
1.04
1.28
%
Gains Made in the Market Share Are Sizeable
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Changes in % of the Market Share in World Merchandise Exports
Source: www.unido.org
China Russia India Brazil
1995-2007
150
121
68
23
16
GROWING SIZE OF THE ECONOMY1
Competitive Industrial Performance Index (2009)
Source: www.unido.orgAll the indices are between lower value 0 and highest value 1, the highest country value is mapped to value
of 1 and the lowest value is mapped to 0.
Indicators
Competitive Industrial Performance Index
Manufactured Exports per Capita
MVA per Capita Index
Industrialization Intensity Index
Industrial Export Quality Index
Share of World MVA Index (%)
Share of World Manufactured Exports Index (%)
Share of World MVA (%)
Share in Manufactured Exports (%)
Share of Medium and High-Tech Activities in Total MVA (%)
Share of Medium and High-Tech Activities in Manufactured Exports (%)
Share of MVA in GDP (%)
Share of Manufactured Exports in Total Exports (%)
UNIDO: Competitive Industrial Performance Index
Brazil
0.2
0.01
0.07
0.46
0.55
0.07
0.08
0.57
3.4
35
40.2
13.7
64.6
India
0.21
0.002
0.01
0.45
0.63
0.07
0.13
1.7
1.6
34.1
28.9
13.7
88.2
Russia
0.15
0.01
0.05
0.38
0.3
0.04
0.09
0.89
1.1
25.5
26.5
15.8
40
China
0.56
0.02
0.09
0.76
0.88
0.61
1
14.4
12.2
40.7
59.8
35.7
96.3
South
Africa
0.18
0.001
0.07
0.33
0.61
0.02
0.03
0.4
0.38
21.6
46.5
15.6
67.7
17
Financial Technologies Knowledge Management Co. Ltd.
Rankings on the Competitive Industrial Performance Index
Country
Brazil
Russia
India
China
South Africa
Source: www.unido.org
Rankings on the Competitive Industrial Performance Index, 2005 and 2009
2005
37
57
42
6
45
2009
44
66
42
5
49
Rank
EXPANDING SIGNIFICANCE OF FINANCIAL SECTOR
18
2
Market Capitalization
Value of Share Trading
Newly Issued Capital
Banks in Global Top 1000
Share of BRICS in Global Total (in percent)
2002
3
1
9
43
2011
13
9
21
168
Japan EU US Brazil Russia India
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
BRIC Countries, though registered sharp growth in the financial sector, still show prospects
for further growth
China
Bonds,Equity and Banks assets (% of GDP) as of 2009
Source: IMF, WB, BIS, IIF, DB Research
Expanding Size of Financial Markets
Catching Up with the Developed World
19
Financial Technologies Knowledge Management Co. Ltd.
BRICS Dominates Emerging Market Finance
BRICS Bank Assets
BRICS Bank Assets (in USD bn)
2010
1613
652
983
8564
492
BRICS Bank Assets
Brazil
Russia
India
China
South Africa
2005
393
158
429
2728
305
Rank
Bank Assets
Insurance Premium
Stock Market Capitalization
Bond Issuance: Domestic
Bond Issuance: Foreign
Mutual Funds
Exchange-traded Derivatives
Brazil
2
3
3
2
1
1
3
Source: The CityUK Research
Ranking of BRICS Among Emerging Economies (2010)
Russia
4
4
-
16
2
13
4
India
3
2
2
3
9
4
1
China
1
1
1
1
5
2
2
South Africa
6
5
4
9
11
3
5
EXPANDING SIGNIFICANCE OF FINANCIAL SECTOR
20
2
BRICS Bank Rankings
Country
China
Brazil
Russia
India
South Africa
Bank
ICBC
Itau Unibanco Holding
Sber Bank
State Bank of India
Standard Bank Group
World Rank
3
33
49
60
112
Source: www.thebankerdatabase.com
BRICS Ranking by Bank Assets 2012
Growing Presence in Global Banking
BRIC
Brazil
Russia
India
China
Source: The Banker
Growth in Number of Banks in BRIC Countries in the Top 1000
1998
26
12
10
6
2010
16
30
31
84
21
Financial Technologies Knowledge Management Co. Ltd.
Domestic Credit as % of GDP
Country
Brazil
Russia
India
China
South Africa
1990
89.3
0
51.4
89.4
107
2000
74.6
24.7
53
119.7
162.5
Source: IMF
Domestic Credit as % of GDP
2009
97.5
33.8
69.4
145.2
183.5
Bank Deposits & Bank Loans
Country
Brazil
Russia
India
China
South Africa
Bank Deposits as % of GDP-2011
53.26
45.03
68.43
159.25
45.86
Bank Loans as % of GDP-2011
40.28
63.86
51.75
108.74
74.45
Bank Deposits and Bank Loans
EXPANDING SIGNIFICANCE OF FINANCIAL SECTOR
22
2
Market Capitalization as % of GDP
Country
Brazil
Russia
India
China
South Africa
1990
3.6
0
12.2
0
123
2000
35.1
15
32.2
48.5
118
Source: S&P
Market Capitalization as % of GDP
2010
74
67.9
93.4
81
278.4
Stock Market Capitalization
Country
Brazil
Russia
India
China
South Africa
World
% Growth
443%
2015%
753%
537%
343%
70%
CAGR
15%
29%
20%
17%
13%
5%
Source: World Bank; WFE
Stock Market Capitalization (USD bn)
2000
226
39
148
580
205
32187
2012
1227
825
1263
3697
908
54672
23
Financial Technologies Knowledge Management Co. Ltd.
Listed Companies
Value of Share Trading
Country
Brazil
Russia
India
China
South Africa
Growth
766%
1585%
25%
588%
336%
CAGR
20%
27%
2%
17%
13%
Source: World Bank; WFE
Value of Share Trading (USD bn)
2000
101
20
510
722
77
2012
875
337
637
4968
336
Country
Brazil
Russia
India
China
South Africa
1990
581
-
2435
-
732
2000
459
249
5937
1086
616
Source: World Bank;WFE
Listed Companies
2009
373
345
4987
2063
407
2012
364
293
5191
2494
387
Value of bond trading (USD bn)
EXPANDING SIGNIFICANCE OF FINANCIAL SECTOR
24
2
Country
Brazil
Russia
India
China
South Africa
Growth
40%
236%
500%
CAGR
3%
11%
16%
Source: World Bank; WFE
Value of Bond Trading (USD bn)
2006
1
47
25
2012
1
334
158
150
2805
Country
Brazil
Russia
India
China
South Africa
Source: Asian Bonds Online
Local Currency Bonds Outstanding
1996 (USD bn)
299
43
81
-
82
2011 (USD bn)
1489
87
596
2363
196
Local Currency Bonds Outstanding
Value of Bond Trading
25
Financial Technologies Knowledge Management Co. Ltd.
BRICs Gave Good Returns to Investors
Brazil China India Russia US Euroland Japan
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
-100
A Handsome Reward for Recognising the BRICs Potential
Cumulative Equity Returns Since 2000
Source: IMF, GS Global ECS Research
Exchange Listings
Rank
1
10
12
15
26
27
29
Exchange
Bombay Stock Exchange
National Stock Exchange
Shenzhen Stock Exchange
Shanghai Stock Exchange
Johannesburg Stock Exchange
BM&FBOVESPA
MICEX / RTS
Country
India
India
China
China
South Africa
Brazil
Russia
No. of listed companies
5191
1665
1540
954
387
364
293
Source: WFE (Ranks based on the list of exchanges available at WFE)
Ranks of BRICS countries’ stock exchanges on the basis of number of listed companies in 2012
EXPANDING SIGNIFICANCE OF FINANCIAL SECTOR
26
2
Market Capitalization of BRICS Stock Exchanges
Rank
7
11
12
14
16
19
20
Exchange
Shanghai Stock Exchange
Bombay Stock Exchange
National Stock Exchange
BM&FBOVESPA
Shenzhen Stock Exchange
Johannesburg Stock Exchange
MICEX / RTS
Country
China
India
India
Brazil
China
South Africa
Russia
Mcap (USD bn)
2547
1263
1234
1227
1150
908
825
Source: WFE (Ranks based on the list of exchanges available at WFE)
Ranks of BRICS countries’ stock exchanges on the basis of stock market capitalization in 2012
Stock Market Turnover of BRICS Stock Exchanges
Rank
4
5
13
18
21
22
29
Exchange
Shanghai Stock Exchange
Shenzhen Stock Exchange
BM&FBOVESPA
National Stock Exchange
MICEX / RTS
Johannesburg Stock Exchange
Bombay Stock Exchange
Country
China
China
Brazil
India
Russia
South Africa
India
Turnover (USD bn)
2599
2369
875
526
337
336
110
Source: WFE (Ranks based on the list of exchanges available at WFE)
Ranks of BRICS countries’ stock exchanges on the basis of stock market turnover in 2012
27
Financial Technologies Knowledge Management Co. Ltd.
Exchange-Traded Bond Market Turnover in BRICS
Rank
5
11
14
15
19
20
29
Exchange
Johannesburg Stock Exchange
MICEX / RTS
National Stock Exchange
Shanghai Stock Exchange
Shenzhen Stock Exchange
Bombay Stock Exchange
BM&FBOVESPA
Country
South Africa
Russia
India
China
China
India
Brazil
Turnover (USD bn)
2805
334
138
127
22
20
1
Source: WFE (Ranks based on the list of exchanges available at WFE)
Ranks of BRICS countries’ stock exchanges on the basis of bond market turnover in 2012
Exchange-Traded Currency Futures Turnover in BRICS Exchanges
Rank
5
6
8
10
12
Exchange
BM&FBOVESPA
National Stock Exchange
MCX-SX
MICEX / RTS
Johannesburg Stock Exchange
Country
Brazil
India
India
Russia
South Africa
Turnover (USD bn)
4272
597
528
425
15
Source: WFE (Ranks based on the list of exchanges available at WFE)
Ranks of BRICS countries’ stock exchanges on the basis of currency futures turnover in 2012
EXPANDING SIGNIFICANCE OF FINANCIAL SECTOR
28
2
Rank
6
7
12
15
16
Exchange
Shanghai Future Exchange
Multi Commodity Exchange
Johannesburg Stock Exchange
MICEX / RTS
BM&FBOVESPA
Country
China
India
South Africa
Russia
Brazil
Turnover (USD bn)
5041
2758
61
30
13
Source: WFE (Ranks based on the list of exchanges available at WFE)
Ranks of BRICS countries’ commodity exchanges on the basis of commodity futures turnover in 2012
BRICs Growing Access to International Finance
Brazil Russia India China
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
In Brazil, Russia and China, financial institutions access international debt securities
Source: D B Research
International debt securities as of September 2010 (USD bn)
Government
Corporate Issuers
Financial Institutions
Exchange-Traded Commodity Futures Turnover in BRICS Exchanges
29
Financial Technologies Knowledge Management Co. Ltd.
Significance
Russia (736)
India (1,497)
China (3,597)
Hong Kong (2,599)
US (15,978)
Rest
of the
world (27,202)
Brazil (1,460)
Source:Various Sources
Brazil(Bovespa)andChina(ShanghaiandHongKong)inthetop10countriesinMarketCap.
China(Shanghai,Shenzhen)inthetop10invalueofstockstraded
Indiaintop5inequityderivatives
RussiaandJohannesburgintop5inbondtrading
Brazilintop5ininterestratederivatives
Indiainthetopmostpositionincurrencyfutures
Indiaamongthetop3incommodityfutures
Brazilintop10equityoptions
China(HK)andSouthAfricaintop5exoticderivativestraded
10oftheglobal30derivativesexchangesarefromBRICS
USD-INRcontractisthelargestnumberofcontractstraded
Ofthetop20metalfuturescontracts,8arefromMCX
BRICsaccountedfornearly50%ofthenewcapitalraisedinglobalexchangesin2011
Chinaaccountedfornearly40percentofthenewcapitalraisedgloballyinthelastthreeyears
BRICs Account for a Sizeable Part of the
Global Market Capitalization
INCREASING ENGAGEMENT WITH DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
30
3
Aid to Other Countries
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
Estimated Aid from BRICS (USD bn)
South AfricaBrazilRussiaIndiaChina
Source: IMF, Brautigam(2008): Smith and Zimmerman 2011; Government Budgets for India and South Africa
FDI from BRICs
2000 2004 2006 2008 2010
90
70
50
30
10
-10
BRICs are emerging as important sources of Foreign Direct Investment
flows to other countries
Source: IIF
China
Brazil
India
Russia
2012
(FDI Outflow USD bn)
31
Financial Technologies Knowledge Management Co. Ltd.
Trade between BRICS and Other Developing Countries
1980 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004
200.0
160.0
120.0
80.0
40.0
0.0
Total Merchandise Trade between SSA and BRICS (USD bn)
Source: World Bank (using IMF data:Direction of Trade Statistics)
2007 2010
EU UK US BRICS
China India South Africa
Loans to Other Developing Countries
‘95 ‘96 ‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
Total Loan Disbursement from BRICS to SSA (USD bn)
Source: World Bank
‘01 ‘02
BRICS Total China Brazil
India RussiaSouth Africa
‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10
INCREASING ENGAGEMENT WITH DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
32
3
BRICs Trade with Low Income Countries
1990 2005 2009
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
LIC Trade with BRIC (USD bn)
Source:IMF Direction of Trade Statistics
Brazil Russia India China
‘91 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
BRIC: Annual Outward Foreign Direct Investment Flow (USD bn)
Source: UNCTAD Database; WIR 2010; IMF staff estimates
‘03‘92 ‘93 ‘94 ‘95 ‘96 ‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
BRIC: Onward FDI
BrazilRussiaIndiaChina % of World Total (rhs)
33
Financial Technologies Knowledge Management Co. Ltd.
*
Contribution to Changes in LICs’ Growth Rates
Source: IMF staff estimates
1
The table shows the fraction of the variance of output growth attributable to each factor
2
Generated from variance decomposition of VAR regression for period covering 1972-2009
3
Generated from variance decomposition of VAR regression for period covering 1972-2007
4
Difference between " During and post-crisis" & " Before the crisis" Positive sign implies an increase in contribution, and a negative sign means the opposite
1
Contribution to Changes in LICs’ Growth Rates
Country
43.1
53.8
37.1
41
52.5
35.1
39.9
44.4
44.9
48.7
49
32.1
3.2
9.4
-7.8
-7.7
3.5
3.1
29.7
27.6
31.1
19.1
37
37.4
18.8
25.1
30.5
18.7
28.9
28.8
10.9
2.5
0.6
0.5
8.1
8.6
27.2
18.6
31.8
39.9
10.5
27.4
41.3
30.4
24.5
32.6
22.1
39.1
-14.1
-11.9
7.2
7.2
-11.6
-11.7
Factors
Country& Idiosyncratic BRICs Rest of the World
Africa
Asia
Europe&theMiddleEast
LatinAmerica
OilExporters
OtherCommodityExporters
Africa
Asia
Europe&theMiddleEast
LatinAmerica
OilExporters
OtherCommodityExporters
Africa
Asia
Europe&theMiddleEast
LatinAmerica
OilExporters
OtherCommodityExporters
Unweighted average for each region in percent
2
Before, During and Post-Crisis
3
Before Crisis
4
Change in Contribution
*
Low Income Countries
DEGREE OF DIVERGENCE
34
4
Rankings on the Competitive Industrial Performance Index
Country
Brazil
Russia
India
China
South Africa
2005
37
57
42
6
45
2009
44
66
42
5
49
Source: www.unido.org
Rankings on the Competitive Industrial Performance Index
Competitiveness of the World Merchandise Exports
200
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
-25
*
Competitiveness of the World Merchandise Exports
Source: www.unido.org
China Russia India Brazil
1995-2007
172
-12
77
28
*
Competitiveness effect (CE) is the weighted average of the changes of an exporting
country’s market shares in all the product segments into which the import market is subdivided.
35
Financial Technologies Knowledge Management Co. Ltd.
The Financial Development Index -2012 Rankings
Country
Brazil
Russia
India
China
South Africa
Rank
32
39
40
23
28
Source:WEF
The Financial Development Index -2012 Rankings
Stock Market Turnover (Cash Market Segment)
Country
Brazil
Russia
India
China
South Africa
BRICS
World
2009
649
683
1089
8956
343
11719
81330
Source:WFE
Stock Market Turnover (USD bn)
2007
585
755
1108
7792
426
10664
98816
2008
728
562
1050
5471
401
8212
108066
2010
901
800
1057
8030
340
11128
65032
2011
961
1146
740
7671
372
10891
66419
DEGREE OF DIVERGENCE4
36
Brazil Russia India
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Number of BRICS Banks : Top World 1000 Banks
South AfricaChina
20102000
Top Banks of BRICS
Top Companies of BRICs
Petrobras, Brazil Sinopec Group, China Indian Oil, India
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
BRICs Top Companies by Revenue
Gazprom, Russia
RevenueinUSDBillion
37
Financial Technologies Knowledge Management Co. Ltd.
Banco do Brasil,
Brazil
Sberbank, Russia SBI, India ICBC, China
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Top BRICS Banks by Assets (Total Assets in USD bn)
Standard Bank
Group, SA
Bank Assets of BRICS
Banco do Brasil,
Brazil
Sberbank, Russia SBI, India ICBC, China
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Top BRICS Banks by Profit
Standard Bank
Group, SA
ProfitinUSDBillion
Bank Profits of BRICS
DEGREE OF DIVERGENCE
38
4
BM&FBOVESPA Bombay SE Shanghai SE
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
BRICS Exchanges Market Capitalization
MICEX Johannesburg SE
Source: WFE
USDBillion
Stock Exchanges
New Capital Issuance
Source:Markets in Motion, FTKMC
2002
400
360
320
280
240
160
120
80
40
0
IPO Performance: BRIC as % of Global
BRIC/GlobalBRICWorld
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2012
AmountraisedinUSDbn
2009 2010 20112008
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
0%
39
Financial Technologies Knowledge Management Co. Ltd.
Fiscal Management
Current Account Management
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-140
-160
-180
Fiscal Balance (USD bn) 2012
Source: IMF
Brazil Russia India South AfricaChina
-56
12
-162
-17
107
250
200
150
100
50
0
-50
-100
Current Account Balance (USD bn) 2012
Source: IMF
Brazil Russia India South AfricaChina
-62
102
-75
-21
191
SCOPE FOR REFORMS
40
5
Dominant State Ownership
Dominant State
Brazil China India
100
75
50
20
0
Government Ownership is predominant in the Banking Sector. Stock Market ownership is diverse
ForeignPrivatePublic
Source: Fitch, DB Research
Russia
% of Bank Assets
Brazil India China
100
75
50
20
0
Corporate Bond Market, considered vital for the economy, is small with a large chunk of
debt securities accounted for by the Government
GovernmentFinancial InstitutionsCorporate
Source: BIS
Domestic debt securities as of June 2010, share of total in %
41
Financial Technologies Knowledge Management Co. Ltd.
1/07 7/07 1/08 7/08 1/09 7/09
2.65
2.45
2.25
2.05
1.85
1.65
1.45
1.25
Brazilian Real Exchange Rate
Source: Brazillian Real (BRL) from Bloomberg ProfessionalCME,
1/10 7/10 1/11 7/11 1/12 7/12
Real
apppreciating
Real
depreciating
BrazilianRealperUSD
1/07 7/07 1/08 7/08 1/09 7/09
8.5
8.0
7.5
7.0
6.5
6.0
Chinese Renminbi Exchange Rate
Source: Chinese Renminbi (CNY) from Bloomberg ProfessionalCME,
1/10 7/10 1/11 7/11 1/12 7/12
ChineseRenminbiperUSD
Renminbi
apppreciating
1/07 7/07 1/08 7/08 1/09 7/09
58
59
54
52
50
48
46
44
42
40
38
Indian Rupee Exchange Rate
Source: CME, Indian Rupee (INR) from Bloomberg Professional
1/10 7/10 1/11 7/11 1/12 7/12
IndianRupeeperUSD
Rupee
depreciating
Rupee
apppreciating
1/07 7/07 1/08 7/08 1/09 7/09
38
36
34
32
30
28
26
24
22
20
Russian Rouble Exchange Rate
Source: Russian Ruble (RUB) from Bloomberg ProfessionalCME,
1/10 7/10 1/11 7/11 1/12 7/12
Rouble
depreciating
Rouble
apppreciating
RussianRoubleperUSD
Exchange Rates
PROSPECTS AND FORECAST
42
6
Potential for Growth in the Future
1980-89 1990-99 2000-10 2010-19 2020-29 2030-39 2040-50
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
A Peak Decade for Potential Global Growth
BRICsN 11Other EMsDMs
* Calculated using weights
Source: IMF, GS Global ECS Research
BRICs Output May Double Soon
80 90 00 10 20 30 40
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
00
The Share of BRICs in Global Output Poised to Double from Here
BRICsN 11Other EMDM
* Calculated using weights
Source: IMF, GS Global ECS Research
50
Share of PPP-Adjusted GDP Levels
43
Financial Technologies Knowledge Management Co. Ltd.
BRICs Will Have High Contribution to Global Growth
1980-89 1990-99 2000-09 2010-19 2020-29 2030-39 2040-50
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
00
Their Contribution to Global Growth may already have peaked
BRICsN 11Other EMsDMs
Source: IMF, GS Global ECS Research
Share of PPP-weighted Global GDP Growth
PROSPECTS AND FORECAST
44
6
Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers GDP growth estimates (rounded to nearest 0.1 % ), population growth projections from the
E7 and G7 averages)
Projected real growth rate for expanded group of emerging market economies: 2007-50 (% pa)
Country
Vietnam
India
Nigeria
Philippines
Egypt
Bangladesh
China
Indonesia
Pakistan
E7average
Malaysia
Thailand
Iran
Brazil
Turkey
Argentina
SouthAfrica
SaudiArabia
Mexico
Russia
Poland
G7average
GDP in
US $ terms
9.8
8.5
8
7.2
7.1
7
6.8
6.7
6.4
6.4
5.8
5.7
5.2
5.2
5.1
4.9
4.8
4.8
4.7
4.3
3.4
2
GDP in domestic
currency or at PPPs
6.8
5.8
6.1
5.2
5.1
5.1
4.7
4.5
4.9
4.5
4.3
3.6
3.8
3.8
4.1
3.7
3.7
4.1
3.7
2.5
2.1
2.2
Population
0.8
0.8
1.6
1.1
1.1
1.1
0.1
0.6
1.4
0.5
1
0.1
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.3
1.4
0.5
-0.6
-0.5
0.3
GDP per
capita at PPPs
6
5
4.4
4.1
3.9
3.9
4.6
3.9
3.5
4
3.3
3.5
3
3.1
3.4
3
3.3
2.7
3.2
3.2
2.7
1.9
Economic Growth (PPP): Emerging Markets League Table
45
Financial Technologies Knowledge Management Co. Ltd.
Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers estimates (using UN population projections)
Projected relative size of economies in 2007 and 2050 (US=100)
Country(indiceswithUS=100)
US
Japan
China
Germany
UK
France
Italy
Canada
Spain
Brazil
Russia
India
Korea
Mexico
Australia
Turkey
Indonesia
2007
100
32
23
22
18
17
14
10
9
8
8
7
7
7
6
3
3
2050
100
19
129
14
14
14
10
9
9
26
17
88
8
17
6
10
17
2007
100
28
51
20
15
15
13
10
10
15
17
22
9
10
5
5
7
2050
100
19
129
14
14
14
10
9
9
26
17
88
8
17
6
10
17
GDP at market exhange rates in US $ terms GDP in PPP terms
Projected Size of Economies
ABOUT FINANCIAL TECHNOLOGIES (INDIA) LTD.
46
The Financial Technologies Group is among the global leaders in offering
technology and domain expertise in the creation of next-generation financial
markets that are transparent, efficient, and liquid across various asset classes,
including equities, commodities, currencies, and fixed income segments. The
Group operates one of the world’s largest network of exchanges connecting fast-
growing economies from Asia to Africa. It also has five ecosystem ventures to
address upstream and downstream opportunities around exchanges, including
exchange and trading technologies, clearing, warehousing, real-time market
information,mobilepaymentsolutions,andknowledgemanagement.
The Group operates some of the most successful exchange industry ventures in
India, such as Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX), India’s No. 1 commodity
exchangeandthethirdlargestintheworld;IndianEnergyExchange(IEX)fortrading
in electricity; and National Spot Exchange (NSEL) for spot trading in commodities. Its
global forays include Singapore Mercantile Exchange (SMX), Dubai Gold and
Commodities Exchange (DGCX), Bahrain Financial Exchange (BFX), Global Board of
Trade (GBOT) in Mauritius, and Bourse Africa in Botswana. The Group has also
promoted MCX Stock Exchange (MCX-SX) in India. MCX-SX has leadership in
exchange-traded currency futures and is now majority-held (89%) by a large
numberoffinancialinstitutionsandbanksinthepublicandprivatesectors.
www.ftindia.com
47
Financial Technologies Knowledge Management Co. Ltd.
Real-time information service
provider that offers customized
and cost-effective solutions for
dataandinformation
A pioneer in providing mobile
payment solutions for a wide
range of institutions, individuals
andinvestors
A leading provider of domain
knowledge solutions and
market development strategies
in financial markets in India and
abroad
Real Time Information &
Payment Solutions
Knowledge
Management
Global
Markets
Trades in securities, derivatives, structured products and
Shariah-compliantfinancialinstruments
Apan-Africanmulti-commodityexchangethatwillsoonbegin
itsoperations
A leading international multi-asset exchange in Africa, based
inMauritius
The new-generation pan-Asia multi-asset exchange
promotedbytheGroup
Leading commodities exchange in the Gulf, originally set up
bytheGroup,inwhichitnowholdssignificantstake
Domestic
Markets
India’s largest commodity
exchange trading in over 70
commodities, with global
leadershipinGoldandSilver
India’s largest spot exchange for
tradingincommodities.Hasextensive
businessrelationsacrossIndia
India’s largest private sector
warehousing and collateral
m a n a g e m e n t c o m p a n y.
Developing warehousing receipt
financing
India’s largest exchange for
trading in electricity futures. It
streamlined the distribution of
powerinIndia
Financial Technologies Group Promoted Exchange Industry and Ecosystem Ventures
ABOUT FTKMC
48
Financial Technologies Knowledge Management Company Limited (FTKMC) is engaged in
development of domain knowledge in financial markets in India, with a wide range of
services including financial education, training, consultancy, research, publication, and
advisory. A rich blend of conceptual clarity with a focus on market practice is embedded in
the programmes designed by FTKMC, leading to wider acceptance from a cross-section of
professionals. FTKMC has a team of domain experts who are well acquainted with the
functioningofequity,currency,andcommodityexchanges.
FTKMCcaterstothefollowingmajorconstituencies:policymakersandregulatoryauthoritieson
subjects such as growing importance of financial markets in the economy and aspects of
governance and management; financial institutions on market development strategies,
resource mobilization and risk management; corporates and other business entities on the
scope of harnessing and accessing financial markets and issuing securities and other
instruments; intermediaries on the skill-sets and expertise required to operate in multi-asset-
class markets, including trading and settlement; students to prepare them with knowledge and
know-how for successful careers in financial markets; and investors to empower them with
proper understanding and appreciation of the opportunities in the financial markets and risk
andrewardsassociatedwithfinancialinvestments.
FTKMC has carried out knowledge management projects in China, UAE, Kingdom of Saudi
Arabia, Maldives, Ethiopia, Singapore, Mauritius, and Pakistan to name a few. FTKMC has
successfully conducted nationwide programmes providing research, training, and consultancy
services in promotion of market development in major segments such as commodity and
currencyfutures,inadditiontoextensivecontentdevelopmentinfinancialmarkets.
www.ftkmc.com
49
Financial Technologies Knowledge Management Co. Ltd.
A WEEKLY
BRIEFING
ON MAJOR
DEVELOPMENTS IN
GLOBAL ECONOMY,
FINANCE, AND
MARKETS
POSTGRADUATE
DIPLOMA IN
FINANCIAL
MARKETS
PRACTICE, JOINTLY
WITH IGNOU, AND
COLLABORATIONS
WITH ACADEMIC
INSTITUTIONS
CONSULTATIONS
AND COUNTRY
EXPOSURE
PROGRAMME
ON FINANCIAL
MARKETS FOR
CEOs AND SENIOR
DIRECTORS OF
FINANCIAL FIRMS
A TWO-WEEK
PROGRAMME
IN FINANCIAL
MARKETS
PRACTICE FOR
PROFESSIONALS
AND STUDENTS
AN ANNUAL REVIEW
OF DEVELOPMENTS
IN GLOBAL
AND DOMESTIC
FINANCIAL
MARKETS
CERTIFICATE
PROGRAMMES ON
EQUITIES, DEBT,
COMMODITIES,
CURRENCIES
PROFILE
50
Dr. Bandi Ram Prasad, President, Financial Technologies Knowledge Management Company Limited, has more
than three decades of experience in financial markets, with expertise in banking, rural finance, consulting and
capitalmarkets.
Dr. Prasad held senior management positions in banking (Chief Economist, Indian Banks’ Association), capital
markets (Chief General Manager/Chief Knowledge Officer, Bombay Stock Exchange), and consultancy
(Principal Consultant, Dun and Bradstreet India Information Services Pvt Ltd). Currently he heads a premier
facilityforKnowledgeManagementinthefinancialsector.
Dr. Prasad has extensive interactions in the realm of capital markets as a member of the Working Committee of
the World Federation of Exchanges and Asia-Oceania Federation of Exchanges while at Bombay Stock
Exchange. He did consulting assignments for Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, GIZ
(Germany), designed a high-level directors programme for Capital Market Development Authority, Maldives;
regulation and development of commodity markets for Ethiopia Commodity Exchange Authority, coordinated
two rounds of South Asian Capital Markets Conference for South Asian Federation of Exchanges. Designed and
led Global Financial Markets Exposure Programmes for CEOs/top management professionals in financial
markets. Dr. Prasad chaired a session in the World Knowledge Forum, held in October 2005 in Seoul. Dr. Prasad
is currently implementing a comprehensive knowledge management project for Capital Market Authority,
Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. He developed master’s programmes on financial markets practice in association with
leadingacademicinstitutions.
Dr. Prasad is widely travelled and has contributed to various publications on financial markets, banking and
capital markets. He regularly shares his views on financial markets in emerging economiesat various workshop,
seminars,andresearchforums.
Dr. Bandi Ram Prasad
President, Financial Technologies Knowledge Management Company Limited
www.ftkmc.com
Financial Technologies Knowledge Management Co. Ltd.
REFERENCES
• NewGrowthDriverforLowIncomeCountries:TheRoleofBRICS,InternationalMonetaryFund(IMF),2011
• TheRoleofBRICSintheDevelopingWorld,Directorate-GeneralForExternalPolicies,PolicyDepartment,2012
• N O Jim, L Sandra and P Roopa;The BRICS and Global Markets: Crude, Cars and Capital;CEO Confidential, Goldman Sachs; October
2004
• H John and C Gordon; The World in 2050, Beyond the BRICs: a broader look at emerging market growth prospects;
PricewaterhouseCoopers(PwC);March2008
• ASamanthaandPBlu;BRICCountryUpdate:SlowingGrowthintheFaceofInternalandExternalChallenges.MarketInsights,CMEGroup; July
2012
• The BRICs 10 Years On: Halfway Through The Great Transformation. Global Economics Paper No: 208, Goldman Sachs Global
Economics,CommoditiesandStrategyResearch;December2011
• Industrial Energy Efficiency For Sustainable Wealth Creation, Industrial Development Report 2011, United Nations Industrial
DevelopmentOrganization;2011
• www.worldbank.org
• www.imf.org
• www.world-exchanges.org
• www.unido.org
Disclaimer
Address
Disclaimer:
The information contained in this report is prepared with all due care and skill. The information is obtained from sources believed to be true and reliable.
Thecontentprovidedmakesnorepresentationorwarrantyregardingthecorrectness,accuracyorcompleteness,non-infringement,merchantability,and
fitness of any information. The content and material provided are for general awareness and no claims will be entertained for any acts, errors, or
omissions.
Financial Technologies Knowledge Management Company Limited
FT Tower, Suren Road, Chakala, Andheri (East), Mumbai 400093, India
Tel: +91-22-66866010 | Fax: +91-22-66866050 | knowledgeformarkets@ftkmc.com | www.ftkmc.com

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Brics and the global economy

  • 1. BRICSBRICSBRICS AND THE GLOBAL ECONOMY Brazil Russia India China South Africa By Dr. Bandi Ram Prasad bandi.ramprasad@ftkmc.com w w w. f t k m c . c o m
  • 2. BR Brazil producing coal, oil, gas, chemicals, and metals; all forms of ma production, and advanced electronic components, shipbuildin equipment; electric power generating and transmitting equipm processing,steel,transportationequipment,cement,mining,pet iron, steel, aluminum, and other metals, coal; machine building; electronics; food processing; transportation equipment, including satellites South Africa mining (world's largest producer of platin commercial ship repair Brazil textiles, shoes, chemicals, cement, and extractive industries producing coal, oil, gas, chemicals, and includingradar,missileproduction,andadvancedelectroniccomp constructionequipment;electricpowergeneratingandtransmitti food processing, steel, transportation equipment, cement, mini processing, iron, steel, aluminum, and other metals, coal; machin toys,andelectronics;foodprocessing;transportationequipment, vehicles, satellites South Africa mining (world's largest produce foodstuffs,commercialshiprepair Brazil textiles,shoes,chemica of mining and extractive industries producing coal, oil, gas, che industries including radar, missile production, and advanced elec tractors, and construction equipment; electric power generating textiles, chemicals, food processing, steel, transportation equipm mining and ore processing, iron, steel, aluminum, and other me including footwear, toys, and electronics; food processing; trans commercialspacelaunchvehicles,satellitesSouth Africa mining chemicals, fertilizer, foodstuffs, commercial ship repairBrazil tex Russia complete range of mining and extractive industries produ vehicles; defense industries including radar, missile production, agricultural machinery, tractors, and construction equipment; elec handicrafts India textiles, chemicals, food processing, steel, trans industrial output; mining and ore processing, iron, steel, alumin consumer products, including footwear, toys, and electronic telecommunications equipment, commercial space launch vehic machinery,textiles,ironandsteel,chemicals,fertilizer,foodstuffs,co textiles,shoes,chemicals,cement,lumber,ironore,tin,ste BRICS AND THE GLOBAL ECONOMY The BRICS nations have emerged as the most watched and promising group. From being an idea for investment, BRICS have grown to assume importance and significance in terms of strong domestic growth, contribution to the global economy, expanding financial markets, enhanced scope of engagement with other developing countries, etc. The global economic crisis, while it impacted the BRICS nations to a certain extent, also provided an important opportunity to harness increased growth opportunities caused by the slowing down of a sizeable part of the advanced world. However, this would entail a great amount of foresight and wisdom in designing growth- inducing domestic economic policies, with greater thrust on efficiency and inclusion. ‘BRICS and the Global Economy’ presents a few important highlights of the BRICS nations. This brief is made as a part of the presentation for the BRICS Academic Forum, being held at Durban, South Africa, on March 10-13, 2013. The Indian delegation to the Academic Forum is supported by Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi. BR Brazil producing coal, oil, gas, chemicals, and metals; all forms of ma production, and advanced electronic components, shipbuildin equipment; electric power generating and transmitting equipm processing,steel,transportationequipment,cement,mining,pet iron, steel, aluminum, and other metals, coal; machine building; electronics; food processing; transportation equipment, including satellites South Africa mining (world's largest producer of platin commercial ship repair Brazil textiles, shoes, chemicals, cement, and extractive industries producing coal, oil, gas, chemicals, and includingradar,missileproduction,andadvancedelectroniccomp constructionequipment;electricpowergeneratingandtransmitti food processing, steel, transportation equipment, cement, mini processing, iron, steel, aluminum, and other metals, coal; machin toys,andelectronics;foodprocessing;transportationequipment, vehicles, satellites South Africa mining (world's largest produce foodstuffs,commercialshiprepair Brazil textiles,shoes,chemica of mining and extractive industries producing coal, oil, gas, che industries including radar, missile production, and advanced elec tractors, and construction equipment; electric power generating textiles, chemicals, food processing, steel, transportation equipm mining and ore processing, iron, steel, aluminum, and other me including footwear, toys, and electronics; food processing; trans commercialspacelaunchvehicles,satellitesSouth Africa mining chemicals, fertilizer, foodstuffs, commercial ship repairBrazil tex Russia complete range of mining and extractive industries produ vehicles; defense industries including radar, missile production, agricultural machinery, tractors, and construction equipment; elec handicrafts India textiles, chemicals, food processing, steel, trans industrial output; mining and ore processing, iron, steel, alumin consumer products, including footwear, toys, and electronic telecommunications equipment, commercial space launch vehic machinery,textiles,ironandsteel,chemicals,fertilizer,foodstuffs,co textiles,shoes,chemicals,cement,lumber,ironore,tin,ste
  • 3. RICS Russia completerangeofminingandextractiveindustries achine building from rolling mills to high-performance aircraft and space vehicles; defense industries including radar, missile ng; road and rail transportation equipment; communications equipment; agricultural machinery, tractors, and construction ment; medical and scientific instruments; consumer durables, textiles, foodstuffs, handicrafts India textiles, chemicals, food troleum,machinery,software,pharmaceuticalsChina worldleaderingrossvalueofindustrialoutput;miningandoreprocessing, ; armaments; textiles and apparel; petroleum; cement; chemicals; fertilizers; consumer products, including footwear, toys, and g automobiles, rail cars and locomotives, ships, and aircraft; telecommunications equipment, commercial space launch vehicles, num, gold, chromium), automobile assembly, metalworking, machinery, textiles, iron and steel, chemicals, fertilizer, foodstuffs, lumber, iron ore, tin, steel, aircraft, motor vehicles and parts, other machinery and equipment Russia complete range of mining d metals; all forms of machine building from rolling mills to high-performance aircraft and space vehicles; defense industries ponents,shipbuilding;roadandrailtransportationequipment;communicationsequipment;agriculturalmachinery,tractors,and ingequipment;medicalandscientificinstruments;consumerdurables,textiles,foodstuffs,handicraftsIndia textiles,chemicals, ing, petroleum, machinery, software, pharmaceuticals China world leader in gross value of industrial output; mining and ore ne building; armaments; textiles and apparel; petroleum; cement; chemicals; fertilizers; consumer products, including footwear, ,includingautomobiles,railcarsandlocomotives,ships,andaircraft;telecommunicationsequipment,commercialspacelaunch er of platinum, gold, chromium), automobile assembly, metalworking, machinery, textiles, iron and steel, chemicals, fertilizer, als,cement,lumber,ironore,tin,steel,aircraft,motorvehiclesandparts,othermachineryandequipmentRussia completerange emicals, and metals; all forms of machine building from rolling mills to high-performance aircraft and space vehicles; defense ctronic components, shipbuilding; road and rail transportation equipment; communications equipment; agricultural machinery, g and transmitting equipment; medical and scientific instruments; consumer durables, textiles, foodstuffs, handicrafts India ment, cement, mining, petroleum, machinery, software, pharmaceuticals China world leader in gross value of industrial output; etals, coal; machine building; armaments; textiles and apparel; petroleum; cement; chemicals; fertilizers; consumer products, sportation equipment, including automobiles, rail cars and locomotives, ships, and aircraft; telecommunications equipment, g(world'slargestproducerofplatinum,gold,chromium),automobileassembly,metalworking,machinery,textiles,ironandsteel, xtiles, shoes, chemicals, cement, lumber, iron ore, tin, steel, aircraft, motor vehicles and parts, other machinery and equipment ucing coal, oil, gas, chemicals, and metals; all forms of machine building from rolling mills to high-performance aircraft and space , and advanced electronic components, shipbuilding; road and rail transportation equipment; communications equipment; ctric power generating and transmitting equipment; medical and scientific instruments; consumer durables, textiles, foodstuffs, sportation equipment, cement, mining, petroleum, machinery, software, pharmaceuticals China world leader in gross value of num, and other metals, coal; machine building; armaments; textiles and apparel; petroleum; cement; chemicals; fertilizers; cs; food processing; transportation equipment, including automobiles, rail cars and locomotives, ships, and aircraft; cles, satellites South Africa mining (world's largest producer of platinum, gold, chromium), automobile assembly, metalworking, ommercialshiprepair eel,aircraft,motorvehiclesandparts,othermachineryandequipment RICS Russia completerangeofminingandextractiveindustries achine building from rolling mills to high-performance aircraft and space vehicles; defense industries including radar, missile ng; road and rail transportation equipment; communications equipment; agricultural machinery, tractors, and construction ment; medical and scientific instruments; consumer durables, textiles, foodstuffs, handicrafts India textiles, chemicals, food troleum,machinery,software,pharmaceuticalsChina worldleaderingrossvalueofindustrialoutput;miningandoreprocessing, ; armaments; textiles and apparel; petroleum; cement; chemicals; fertilizers; consumer products, including footwear, toys, and g automobiles, rail cars and locomotives, ships, and aircraft; telecommunications equipment, commercial space launch vehicles, num, gold, chromium), automobile assembly, metalworking, machinery, textiles, iron and steel, chemicals, fertilizer, foodstuffs, lumber, iron ore, tin, steel, aircraft, motor vehicles and parts, other machinery and equipment Russia complete range of mining d metals; all forms of machine building from rolling mills to high-performance aircraft and space vehicles; defense industries ponents,shipbuilding;roadandrailtransportationequipment;communicationsequipment;agriculturalmachinery,tractors,and ingequipment;medicalandscientificinstruments;consumerdurables,textiles,foodstuffs,handicraftsIndia textiles,chemicals, ing, petroleum, machinery, software, pharmaceuticals China world leader in gross value of industrial output; mining and ore ne building; armaments; textiles and apparel; petroleum; cement; chemicals; fertilizers; consumer products, including footwear, ,includingautomobiles,railcarsandlocomotives,ships,andaircraft;telecommunicationsequipment,commercialspacelaunch er of platinum, gold, chromium), automobile assembly, metalworking, machinery, textiles, iron and steel, chemicals, fertilizer, als,cement,lumber,ironore,tin,steel,aircraft,motorvehiclesandparts,othermachineryandequipmentRussia completerange emicals, and metals; all forms of machine building from rolling mills to high-performance aircraft and space vehicles; defense ctronic components, shipbuilding; road and rail transportation equipment; communications equipment; agricultural machinery, g and transmitting equipment; medical and scientific instruments; consumer durables, textiles, foodstuffs, handicrafts India ment, cement, mining, petroleum, machinery, software, pharmaceuticals China world leader in gross value of industrial output; etals, coal; machine building; armaments; textiles and apparel; petroleum; cement; chemicals; fertilizers; consumer products, sportation equipment, including automobiles, rail cars and locomotives, ships, and aircraft; telecommunications equipment, g(world'slargestproducerofplatinum,gold,chromium),automobileassembly,metalworking,machinery,textiles,ironandsteel, xtiles, shoes, chemicals, cement, lumber, iron ore, tin, steel, aircraft, motor vehicles and parts, other machinery and equipment ucing coal, oil, gas, chemicals, and metals; all forms of machine building from rolling mills to high-performance aircraft and space , and advanced electronic components, shipbuilding; road and rail transportation equipment; communications equipment; ctric power generating and transmitting equipment; medical and scientific instruments; consumer durables, textiles, foodstuffs, sportation equipment, cement, mining, petroleum, machinery, software, pharmaceuticals China world leader in gross value of num, and other metals, coal; machine building; armaments; textiles and apparel; petroleum; cement; chemicals; fertilizers; cs; food processing; transportation equipment, including automobiles, rail cars and locomotives, ships, and aircraft; cles, satellites South Africa mining (world's largest producer of platinum, gold, chromium), automobile assembly, metalworking, ommercialshiprepair eel,aircraft,motorvehiclesandparts,othermachineryandequipment Overview Growing Size of the Economy Expanding Significance of Financial Sector Increasing Engagement with Developing Countries Degree of Divergence Scope for Reforms Prospects and Forecast 4 8 18 30 34 40 42
  • 4. OVERVIEW 4 The BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) are considered as the new building blocks of the global economy. In the background of the deceleration of the developed economies in terms of growth and economic expansion, BRICS assumed greater significance and wider acceptance as emerging superpowers. The BRICS economy rose from 11percent of global GDP in 1990 to 25 percent in 2011 and is poised to reach 40 percent by 2050. A Goldman Sachs paper shows BRICS, which overtook Japan in terms of GDP by 2005, will cross the US by 2015 and G7 by 2030. The rise of BRICS is described as “great transformation”. “The relative importance of BRICS as an engine of new demand growth and spending power may shift more dramatically and quickly than many expect. Higher growth in these economies could offset the impact of graying populations and slower growth in today’s advanced economies.” This is how the paper above described the potency andthepotentialforthisemergingpowerfuleconomicbloc. Growth and diversity coexist in the community as a whole. While all countries in the BRICS community enjoyed higher growth for a large part of the last decade, each country is also known for distinctiveness. Russia is a commodity-driven economy, China is a powerhouse of exports, India is a domestic demand-driven economy, Brazil has much developed economic structure and South Africa represents the fast-growing region of Africa. Growth is the common glue that makes this community a powerful and prominent force in the global economy. All the five countries in the BRICS community play an important role in G20 shaping global economicpolicyandfinancialstability. Financial markets in the BRICS community have expanded in a rapid manner simultaneously with economic growth. Between 1990 and 2010, market capitalization of Brazil rose from a very low of about 4 percent of GDP to 74 percent, India from 12 percent to 93 percent, Russia and China from almost nothing to 70 percent and 81 percent, respectively. In South Africa, it has more than doubled from 123 percent to 278 percent. Similarly, value of share trading in China (186 percent), Russia(135percent)andIndia(114percent)ishigherthantherespectiveGDPlevels, with South Africa and Brazil catching up very fast. Between 2001 and 2007, stocks
  • 5. 5 Financial Technologies Knowledge Management Co. Ltd. soared more than double in China and rose nearly 400 in Brazil and India. Banksfromthesefive countries figured amongthetop100 banksin theworld.Bank Credit/GDP ratio is highest in South Africa (193 percent), followed by China (145 percent),Brazil(97percent),andIndia(69percent). Growth of the BRICS community, which was on rapid ascent since 1990s, faced constraints following the global economic and financial crisis that began in 2008. With economic slowdown and financial markets setback in the US and Europe, exports from BRICS to developed markets and investments into their respective economies declined adversely, impacting the growth prospects. Though initially it appearedthatBRICSmighthaveovercometheimpactoftheglobaleconomiccrisis, the deceleration is gaining momentum in the last couple of years, which has become a cause of worry for the economic policy in these countries. The real GDP of BRICS, which was over 8 percent in 2010 declined to 6.5 percent in 2011 and is expectedtofurtherfallto4.87percentin2012and4.7percentin2013. The growth prospects of individual countries in the BRICS community, too, are raising worries. Brazil that had a real GDP growth of 7.6 percent in 2010 fell to 2.7percent in 2011 with the weakness expected to continue in 2012 and the estimates for 2013 is pegged at 2.5 percent. Russia’s growth in 2012 and 2013 is estimated at 2 percent. From an annual growth rate of 7.4 percent during 2000-2010, India’s growth is expected to slide to the fringes of 5 percent in 2012. From an average growth of 10 percent for the last 25 years, China’s economic growth is expected to slip to levels of 6.5 percent, a trend that is forecast to prevail for a few more years. Inflation, too, emerged as a major issue. Currencies of the BRICs community, with the exception of China, has experienced varied levels of volatility following the onset of the global economic crisis. The stock market value of BRICS is atathree-yearlow.TopglobalcompaniesfromtheBRICScountriessufferederosion inmarketvalues,leadingtosizeableslippageintheirrespectiveglobalrankings. In this context, the BRICS community stands at an important point of challenge. While the last two decades have galloped these countries to a position of prominence in global economics, a new set of constraints began to arise in the percent
  • 6. OVERVIEW 6 background of global economic slowdown. Some critics tend to club BRICS as yet another grouping that failed to overtake the US despite great promise in the initial period, citing instances of Europe (1960s), Japan (1970s and 1980s), the Asian Tigers (1990s), etc. More worrying is the fact that the slowdown of BRICS, which is contributing to nearly half the global economic expansion, may reduce the scope forspeedyrecoveryoftheworldeconomy. These developments provide ample scope for the policy makers in the BRICS governments to come up with proactive policies that reinvigorate their domestic economic climate as also establish stronger linkages with other emerging markets. Groupings based on economic growth and prospects such as Next Eleven* and Frontier Markets** are gaining greater significance. It is important for BRICS to forge stronger relationships with these economies to expand domestic markets to revive growth. This will also help the BRICS nations to reduce to some extent excessive dependenceondevelopedmarketsforexports. In this context, the agenda for development cooperation among the BRICS communitycouldalsoincludethefollowing: a. The BRICS community is characterized by a strong middle class with potential for higher savings. Increasing reliance on market-related instruments such as stocks and other structured products, which suffered badly after the financial crisis, has dampened the spirit of investors. It is important to bring investors back to the financialmarkets.Inthiscontext,aneedexistsfordesigningmoresaferandlong- term investments that could be easily understood and managed by retail investors.Thiswouldbeessentialforcapitalformationandinvestment. b. Small and medium enterprises are predominant in the BRICS countries, and most of them are dependent on bank financing or other form of resources. It is important to develop specialized capital markets to solely cater to the needs andrequirementsof smallandmediumenterprises. c. Opportunities for cross-border listing and trading are abundant among the BRICS countries. A limited effort of listing index futures began, which needs to be further strengthened to extend to listings and trading of companies with global operations andbusiness.
  • 7. 7 Financial Technologies Knowledge Management Co. Ltd. d. Scope for designing special financial instruments with sovereign guarantees could be explored to develop diversification of investments among individual investorsandcompaniesintheBRICScountries. e. Given the prowess BRICS has in technology, joint endeavours could be evolved foritseffectiveuseinpromotingfinancialinclusion. f. The proposed BRICS Development Bank could move towards generating consensus of creating institutional mechanism to provide infrastructure financing,sovitalforthegrowthtocontinueandsustaininthesecountries. g. A special task force may be created within the BRICS Secretariat to engage with other fast-growing nations in the N11 and Frontier Markets to cooperate and collaborate on growth-inducing policies that would be mutually beneficial and productive. h. Greater exchange of information, knowledge, skills and expertise may be evolved in areas of the financial sector, information technology, process management, financial education and investor literacy, which could help thesecountriesincapacitybuildingvitalforgrowthtosustain. g. In view of the growing importance of the BRICS community, it might be useful to bring out an annual review of the BRICS economy and finance that will address to various issues of growth and development pertinent to the countriesinthegrouping. Challenges to growth are not uncommon for countries and grouping. What matters is the response mechanism and collaborative approach in overcoming the pressures. The BRICS community has not only pursued higher growth for a longer term but also realized the importance of cooperation among themselves. BRICS forums of various natureandsignificanceareanimportantindicatorofgrowingrelianceoncooperative endeavours to scale up and sustain growth. The important task ahead of the BRICS communityistoprovethatgrowthcanbelong-lastingsoastomakeitspresenceinthe globaleconomicsandfinancearealforcetoreckonwith. * The N11 are the Next Eleven emerging countries grouped by Goldman Sachs, which include Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Korea, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Turkey and Vietnam.**MSCIBarra has 26 countriesclassifiedas FrontierMarkets
  • 8. 8 GROWING SIZE OF THE ECONOMY1 BRICS in the Global Economy,1991-2015 Sources: IMF and World Economic Outlook, October 2010. 1 WEO projections for 2015 2 Emerging market economies excluding BRICS 3 At market exchange rate 1 BRICS in the Global Economy, 1991-2015 ( In percent of world total; period average) Population 3 GDP Exports Imports BRICS 2 OtherEMEs UnitedStates EuroArea BRICS OtherEMEs UnitedStates EuroArea BRICS OtherEMEs UnitedStates EuroArea BRICS OtherEMEs UnitedStates EuroArea 44.7 23.1 4.8 5.6 5.8 10.6 26.2 24.8 4.2 13 13.3 34.7 4 14.4 14.6 34 43.6 23.2 4.7 5.1 8.5 10.8 30.6 21.3 7.9 15.8 12 30.9 7 14.8 17.1 29.5 42.8 23.6 4.6 4.9 13.1 13.3 25.6 22 12.4 18.6 9.7 29.1 10.5 17.2 14.1 28.5 41.8 23.9 4.5 4.6 21.6 15.4 22 16.6 20.1 18.3 9.6 23 18.8 18 12.3 21.9 1991-94 2000-04 2005-09 2015
  • 9. 9 Financial Technologies Knowledge Management Co. Ltd. BRICS Moves Up in USD-Denominated GDP Ranking Source: GS Global ECS Research*projections 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 1980 Brazil UnitedStates Japan Germany France UnitedKingdom Italy Canada Mexico Spain Argentina China India Netherlands Australia SaudiArabia Sweden Belgium Switzerland Indonesia 2000 Brazil Russia UnitedStates Japan Germany UnitedKingdom France China Italy Canada Mexico Spain Korea India Australia Netherlands Argentina Turkey Switzerland Sweden 2010 Brazil Russia UnitedStates China Japan Germany France UnitedKingdom Italy Canada India Spain Australia Mexico Korea Netherlands Turkey Indonesia Switzerland Poland 2050* Brazil Russia China UnitedStates India Japan Mexico Indonesia UnitedKindgon France Germany Nigeria Turkey Egypt Canada Italy Pakistan Iran Philippines Spain
  • 10. 10 GROWING SIZE OF THE ECONOMY1 Nominal GDP Country Brazil Russia India China SouthAfrica BRICS World 2000 645 260 475 1198 133 2710 32334 2010 919 416 973 3246 188 5742 41428 Growth 43% 60% 105% 171% 41% 112% 28% CAGR 4% 5% 7% 10% 4% 8% 3% Source: World Bank Real GDP: GDP (Constant 2000 USD bn) Country Brazil Russia India China SouthAfrica World US 2000 642 260 476 1198 133 32216 21149 2010 2090 1480 1632 5878 364 62911 31717 Source:IMF GDP (Nominal USD bn) BRICS GDP
  • 11. 11 Financial Technologies Knowledge Management Co. Ltd. Imports of Goods & Services Country Brazil Russia India China SouthAfrica BRICS World 2000 72 61 73 251 33 490 8025 2010 244 323 440 1,521 100 2,629 17714 10Y Growth 237% 429% 502% 507% 203% 436% 121% CAGR 13% 18% 20% 20% 12% 18% 8% Source: World Bank Imports of Goods and Services (USD bn) Exports of Goods & Services Country Brazil Russia India China SouthAfrica BRICS World 2000 65 115 60 280 37 556 7986 2010 234 446 349 1,753 100 2,881 17658 10Y Growth 262% 289% 483% 527% 169% 418% 121% CAGR 14% 15% 19% 20% 10% 18% 8% Source: World Bank Exports of Goods & Services (USD bn)
  • 12. 12 GROWING SIZE OF THE ECONOMY1 Total Reserves Country Brazil Russia India China SouthAfrica BRICS World 2000 33 28 41 172 8 282 2231 2010 289 479 300 2,914 44 4,026 10786 10Y Growth 776% 1611% 632% 1594% 450% 1328% 383% CAGR 24% 33% 22% 33% 19% 30% 17% Source: World Bank Total Reserves (includes gold, current USD bn) The Growing Dominance of BRICS Source: GS Global ECS Research 80 90 00 10 20 30 40 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 00 The Growing Weight of BRICS, N11 and other EMs in the Global Economy BRICSN 11Other EMsDMs * Calculated using weights 50 Share of PPP-Adjusted GDP Levels
  • 13. 13 Financial Technologies Knowledge Management Co. Ltd. India Has High Growth Potential Source: IMF, GS Global ECS Research 1980-89 1990-99 2000-10 2010-19 2020-29 2030-39 2040-50 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 Potential Growth in India May Outstrip China RussiaIndiaChinaBrazil Average GDP Growth% Africa Shows Great Potential Source: IMF, GS Global ECS Research 1980-89 1990-99 2000-10 2010-19 2020-29 2030-39 2040-50 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 Africa Shows Great Potential AFRICACEELATAMASIA GDP Growth (PPP-weighted) MENANORTH AMERICAEURO AREA Note: LATAM: Latin America; CEE: Central and Eastern Europe; MENA: Middle East and North Africa
  • 14. 14 GROWING SIZE OF THE ECONOMY1 BRICs Have Become a Key Player in Global Trade Flows BRICs Are Major Consumers of Commodities 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 BRICs Have Become a Key Player in Global Trade Flows Source: IMF, GS Global ECS Research 07 08 09 10 Share of PPP-Adjusted GDP Levels 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Russia India China Brazil BRICs Total Trade (USD bn, rhs) % of Total World Trade (lhs) 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 A Key Consumer of Global Commodities Source: World Bank, GS Global ECS Research 07 08 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Russia India China Brazil BRICs total energy usage (rhs) % of Total World Energy Usage (lhs) Kt of Oil Equivalent
  • 15. 15 Financial Technologies Knowledge Management Co. Ltd. BRICs Gain Market Share in World Exports 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Market Share of World Merchandise Exports Source: www.unido.org China Russia India Brazil 20071995 4.18 10.47 1.14 2.51 0.76 1.28 1.04 1.28 % Gains Made in the Market Share Are Sizeable 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Changes in % of the Market Share in World Merchandise Exports Source: www.unido.org China Russia India Brazil 1995-2007 150 121 68 23
  • 16. 16 GROWING SIZE OF THE ECONOMY1 Competitive Industrial Performance Index (2009) Source: www.unido.orgAll the indices are between lower value 0 and highest value 1, the highest country value is mapped to value of 1 and the lowest value is mapped to 0. Indicators Competitive Industrial Performance Index Manufactured Exports per Capita MVA per Capita Index Industrialization Intensity Index Industrial Export Quality Index Share of World MVA Index (%) Share of World Manufactured Exports Index (%) Share of World MVA (%) Share in Manufactured Exports (%) Share of Medium and High-Tech Activities in Total MVA (%) Share of Medium and High-Tech Activities in Manufactured Exports (%) Share of MVA in GDP (%) Share of Manufactured Exports in Total Exports (%) UNIDO: Competitive Industrial Performance Index Brazil 0.2 0.01 0.07 0.46 0.55 0.07 0.08 0.57 3.4 35 40.2 13.7 64.6 India 0.21 0.002 0.01 0.45 0.63 0.07 0.13 1.7 1.6 34.1 28.9 13.7 88.2 Russia 0.15 0.01 0.05 0.38 0.3 0.04 0.09 0.89 1.1 25.5 26.5 15.8 40 China 0.56 0.02 0.09 0.76 0.88 0.61 1 14.4 12.2 40.7 59.8 35.7 96.3 South Africa 0.18 0.001 0.07 0.33 0.61 0.02 0.03 0.4 0.38 21.6 46.5 15.6 67.7
  • 17. 17 Financial Technologies Knowledge Management Co. Ltd. Rankings on the Competitive Industrial Performance Index Country Brazil Russia India China South Africa Source: www.unido.org Rankings on the Competitive Industrial Performance Index, 2005 and 2009 2005 37 57 42 6 45 2009 44 66 42 5 49 Rank
  • 18. EXPANDING SIGNIFICANCE OF FINANCIAL SECTOR 18 2 Market Capitalization Value of Share Trading Newly Issued Capital Banks in Global Top 1000 Share of BRICS in Global Total (in percent) 2002 3 1 9 43 2011 13 9 21 168 Japan EU US Brazil Russia India 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 BRIC Countries, though registered sharp growth in the financial sector, still show prospects for further growth China Bonds,Equity and Banks assets (% of GDP) as of 2009 Source: IMF, WB, BIS, IIF, DB Research Expanding Size of Financial Markets Catching Up with the Developed World
  • 19. 19 Financial Technologies Knowledge Management Co. Ltd. BRICS Dominates Emerging Market Finance BRICS Bank Assets BRICS Bank Assets (in USD bn) 2010 1613 652 983 8564 492 BRICS Bank Assets Brazil Russia India China South Africa 2005 393 158 429 2728 305 Rank Bank Assets Insurance Premium Stock Market Capitalization Bond Issuance: Domestic Bond Issuance: Foreign Mutual Funds Exchange-traded Derivatives Brazil 2 3 3 2 1 1 3 Source: The CityUK Research Ranking of BRICS Among Emerging Economies (2010) Russia 4 4 - 16 2 13 4 India 3 2 2 3 9 4 1 China 1 1 1 1 5 2 2 South Africa 6 5 4 9 11 3 5
  • 20. EXPANDING SIGNIFICANCE OF FINANCIAL SECTOR 20 2 BRICS Bank Rankings Country China Brazil Russia India South Africa Bank ICBC Itau Unibanco Holding Sber Bank State Bank of India Standard Bank Group World Rank 3 33 49 60 112 Source: www.thebankerdatabase.com BRICS Ranking by Bank Assets 2012 Growing Presence in Global Banking BRIC Brazil Russia India China Source: The Banker Growth in Number of Banks in BRIC Countries in the Top 1000 1998 26 12 10 6 2010 16 30 31 84
  • 21. 21 Financial Technologies Knowledge Management Co. Ltd. Domestic Credit as % of GDP Country Brazil Russia India China South Africa 1990 89.3 0 51.4 89.4 107 2000 74.6 24.7 53 119.7 162.5 Source: IMF Domestic Credit as % of GDP 2009 97.5 33.8 69.4 145.2 183.5 Bank Deposits & Bank Loans Country Brazil Russia India China South Africa Bank Deposits as % of GDP-2011 53.26 45.03 68.43 159.25 45.86 Bank Loans as % of GDP-2011 40.28 63.86 51.75 108.74 74.45 Bank Deposits and Bank Loans
  • 22. EXPANDING SIGNIFICANCE OF FINANCIAL SECTOR 22 2 Market Capitalization as % of GDP Country Brazil Russia India China South Africa 1990 3.6 0 12.2 0 123 2000 35.1 15 32.2 48.5 118 Source: S&P Market Capitalization as % of GDP 2010 74 67.9 93.4 81 278.4 Stock Market Capitalization Country Brazil Russia India China South Africa World % Growth 443% 2015% 753% 537% 343% 70% CAGR 15% 29% 20% 17% 13% 5% Source: World Bank; WFE Stock Market Capitalization (USD bn) 2000 226 39 148 580 205 32187 2012 1227 825 1263 3697 908 54672
  • 23. 23 Financial Technologies Knowledge Management Co. Ltd. Listed Companies Value of Share Trading Country Brazil Russia India China South Africa Growth 766% 1585% 25% 588% 336% CAGR 20% 27% 2% 17% 13% Source: World Bank; WFE Value of Share Trading (USD bn) 2000 101 20 510 722 77 2012 875 337 637 4968 336 Country Brazil Russia India China South Africa 1990 581 - 2435 - 732 2000 459 249 5937 1086 616 Source: World Bank;WFE Listed Companies 2009 373 345 4987 2063 407 2012 364 293 5191 2494 387
  • 24. Value of bond trading (USD bn) EXPANDING SIGNIFICANCE OF FINANCIAL SECTOR 24 2 Country Brazil Russia India China South Africa Growth 40% 236% 500% CAGR 3% 11% 16% Source: World Bank; WFE Value of Bond Trading (USD bn) 2006 1 47 25 2012 1 334 158 150 2805 Country Brazil Russia India China South Africa Source: Asian Bonds Online Local Currency Bonds Outstanding 1996 (USD bn) 299 43 81 - 82 2011 (USD bn) 1489 87 596 2363 196 Local Currency Bonds Outstanding Value of Bond Trading
  • 25. 25 Financial Technologies Knowledge Management Co. Ltd. BRICs Gave Good Returns to Investors Brazil China India Russia US Euroland Japan 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 -100 A Handsome Reward for Recognising the BRICs Potential Cumulative Equity Returns Since 2000 Source: IMF, GS Global ECS Research Exchange Listings Rank 1 10 12 15 26 27 29 Exchange Bombay Stock Exchange National Stock Exchange Shenzhen Stock Exchange Shanghai Stock Exchange Johannesburg Stock Exchange BM&FBOVESPA MICEX / RTS Country India India China China South Africa Brazil Russia No. of listed companies 5191 1665 1540 954 387 364 293 Source: WFE (Ranks based on the list of exchanges available at WFE) Ranks of BRICS countries’ stock exchanges on the basis of number of listed companies in 2012
  • 26. EXPANDING SIGNIFICANCE OF FINANCIAL SECTOR 26 2 Market Capitalization of BRICS Stock Exchanges Rank 7 11 12 14 16 19 20 Exchange Shanghai Stock Exchange Bombay Stock Exchange National Stock Exchange BM&FBOVESPA Shenzhen Stock Exchange Johannesburg Stock Exchange MICEX / RTS Country China India India Brazil China South Africa Russia Mcap (USD bn) 2547 1263 1234 1227 1150 908 825 Source: WFE (Ranks based on the list of exchanges available at WFE) Ranks of BRICS countries’ stock exchanges on the basis of stock market capitalization in 2012 Stock Market Turnover of BRICS Stock Exchanges Rank 4 5 13 18 21 22 29 Exchange Shanghai Stock Exchange Shenzhen Stock Exchange BM&FBOVESPA National Stock Exchange MICEX / RTS Johannesburg Stock Exchange Bombay Stock Exchange Country China China Brazil India Russia South Africa India Turnover (USD bn) 2599 2369 875 526 337 336 110 Source: WFE (Ranks based on the list of exchanges available at WFE) Ranks of BRICS countries’ stock exchanges on the basis of stock market turnover in 2012
  • 27. 27 Financial Technologies Knowledge Management Co. Ltd. Exchange-Traded Bond Market Turnover in BRICS Rank 5 11 14 15 19 20 29 Exchange Johannesburg Stock Exchange MICEX / RTS National Stock Exchange Shanghai Stock Exchange Shenzhen Stock Exchange Bombay Stock Exchange BM&FBOVESPA Country South Africa Russia India China China India Brazil Turnover (USD bn) 2805 334 138 127 22 20 1 Source: WFE (Ranks based on the list of exchanges available at WFE) Ranks of BRICS countries’ stock exchanges on the basis of bond market turnover in 2012 Exchange-Traded Currency Futures Turnover in BRICS Exchanges Rank 5 6 8 10 12 Exchange BM&FBOVESPA National Stock Exchange MCX-SX MICEX / RTS Johannesburg Stock Exchange Country Brazil India India Russia South Africa Turnover (USD bn) 4272 597 528 425 15 Source: WFE (Ranks based on the list of exchanges available at WFE) Ranks of BRICS countries’ stock exchanges on the basis of currency futures turnover in 2012
  • 28. EXPANDING SIGNIFICANCE OF FINANCIAL SECTOR 28 2 Rank 6 7 12 15 16 Exchange Shanghai Future Exchange Multi Commodity Exchange Johannesburg Stock Exchange MICEX / RTS BM&FBOVESPA Country China India South Africa Russia Brazil Turnover (USD bn) 5041 2758 61 30 13 Source: WFE (Ranks based on the list of exchanges available at WFE) Ranks of BRICS countries’ commodity exchanges on the basis of commodity futures turnover in 2012 BRICs Growing Access to International Finance Brazil Russia India China 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 In Brazil, Russia and China, financial institutions access international debt securities Source: D B Research International debt securities as of September 2010 (USD bn) Government Corporate Issuers Financial Institutions Exchange-Traded Commodity Futures Turnover in BRICS Exchanges
  • 29. 29 Financial Technologies Knowledge Management Co. Ltd. Significance Russia (736) India (1,497) China (3,597) Hong Kong (2,599) US (15,978) Rest of the world (27,202) Brazil (1,460) Source:Various Sources Brazil(Bovespa)andChina(ShanghaiandHongKong)inthetop10countriesinMarketCap. China(Shanghai,Shenzhen)inthetop10invalueofstockstraded Indiaintop5inequityderivatives RussiaandJohannesburgintop5inbondtrading Brazilintop5ininterestratederivatives Indiainthetopmostpositionincurrencyfutures Indiaamongthetop3incommodityfutures Brazilintop10equityoptions China(HK)andSouthAfricaintop5exoticderivativestraded 10oftheglobal30derivativesexchangesarefromBRICS USD-INRcontractisthelargestnumberofcontractstraded Ofthetop20metalfuturescontracts,8arefromMCX BRICsaccountedfornearly50%ofthenewcapitalraisedinglobalexchangesin2011 Chinaaccountedfornearly40percentofthenewcapitalraisedgloballyinthelastthreeyears BRICs Account for a Sizeable Part of the Global Market Capitalization
  • 30. INCREASING ENGAGEMENT WITH DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 30 3 Aid to Other Countries 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 Estimated Aid from BRICS (USD bn) South AfricaBrazilRussiaIndiaChina Source: IMF, Brautigam(2008): Smith and Zimmerman 2011; Government Budgets for India and South Africa FDI from BRICs 2000 2004 2006 2008 2010 90 70 50 30 10 -10 BRICs are emerging as important sources of Foreign Direct Investment flows to other countries Source: IIF China Brazil India Russia 2012 (FDI Outflow USD bn)
  • 31. 31 Financial Technologies Knowledge Management Co. Ltd. Trade between BRICS and Other Developing Countries 1980 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 200.0 160.0 120.0 80.0 40.0 0.0 Total Merchandise Trade between SSA and BRICS (USD bn) Source: World Bank (using IMF data:Direction of Trade Statistics) 2007 2010 EU UK US BRICS China India South Africa Loans to Other Developing Countries ‘95 ‘96 ‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 Total Loan Disbursement from BRICS to SSA (USD bn) Source: World Bank ‘01 ‘02 BRICS Total China Brazil India RussiaSouth Africa ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10
  • 32. INCREASING ENGAGEMENT WITH DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 32 3 BRICs Trade with Low Income Countries 1990 2005 2009 175 150 125 100 75 50 25 0 LIC Trade with BRIC (USD bn) Source:IMF Direction of Trade Statistics Brazil Russia India China ‘91 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 BRIC: Annual Outward Foreign Direct Investment Flow (USD bn) Source: UNCTAD Database; WIR 2010; IMF staff estimates ‘03‘92 ‘93 ‘94 ‘95 ‘96 ‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 BRIC: Onward FDI BrazilRussiaIndiaChina % of World Total (rhs)
  • 33. 33 Financial Technologies Knowledge Management Co. Ltd. * Contribution to Changes in LICs’ Growth Rates Source: IMF staff estimates 1 The table shows the fraction of the variance of output growth attributable to each factor 2 Generated from variance decomposition of VAR regression for period covering 1972-2009 3 Generated from variance decomposition of VAR regression for period covering 1972-2007 4 Difference between " During and post-crisis" & " Before the crisis" Positive sign implies an increase in contribution, and a negative sign means the opposite 1 Contribution to Changes in LICs’ Growth Rates Country 43.1 53.8 37.1 41 52.5 35.1 39.9 44.4 44.9 48.7 49 32.1 3.2 9.4 -7.8 -7.7 3.5 3.1 29.7 27.6 31.1 19.1 37 37.4 18.8 25.1 30.5 18.7 28.9 28.8 10.9 2.5 0.6 0.5 8.1 8.6 27.2 18.6 31.8 39.9 10.5 27.4 41.3 30.4 24.5 32.6 22.1 39.1 -14.1 -11.9 7.2 7.2 -11.6 -11.7 Factors Country& Idiosyncratic BRICs Rest of the World Africa Asia Europe&theMiddleEast LatinAmerica OilExporters OtherCommodityExporters Africa Asia Europe&theMiddleEast LatinAmerica OilExporters OtherCommodityExporters Africa Asia Europe&theMiddleEast LatinAmerica OilExporters OtherCommodityExporters Unweighted average for each region in percent 2 Before, During and Post-Crisis 3 Before Crisis 4 Change in Contribution * Low Income Countries
  • 34. DEGREE OF DIVERGENCE 34 4 Rankings on the Competitive Industrial Performance Index Country Brazil Russia India China South Africa 2005 37 57 42 6 45 2009 44 66 42 5 49 Source: www.unido.org Rankings on the Competitive Industrial Performance Index Competitiveness of the World Merchandise Exports 200 175 150 125 100 75 50 25 0 -25 * Competitiveness of the World Merchandise Exports Source: www.unido.org China Russia India Brazil 1995-2007 172 -12 77 28 * Competitiveness effect (CE) is the weighted average of the changes of an exporting country’s market shares in all the product segments into which the import market is subdivided.
  • 35. 35 Financial Technologies Knowledge Management Co. Ltd. The Financial Development Index -2012 Rankings Country Brazil Russia India China South Africa Rank 32 39 40 23 28 Source:WEF The Financial Development Index -2012 Rankings Stock Market Turnover (Cash Market Segment) Country Brazil Russia India China South Africa BRICS World 2009 649 683 1089 8956 343 11719 81330 Source:WFE Stock Market Turnover (USD bn) 2007 585 755 1108 7792 426 10664 98816 2008 728 562 1050 5471 401 8212 108066 2010 901 800 1057 8030 340 11128 65032 2011 961 1146 740 7671 372 10891 66419
  • 36. DEGREE OF DIVERGENCE4 36 Brazil Russia India 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Number of BRICS Banks : Top World 1000 Banks South AfricaChina 20102000 Top Banks of BRICS Top Companies of BRICs Petrobras, Brazil Sinopec Group, China Indian Oil, India 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 BRICs Top Companies by Revenue Gazprom, Russia RevenueinUSDBillion
  • 37. 37 Financial Technologies Knowledge Management Co. Ltd. Banco do Brasil, Brazil Sberbank, Russia SBI, India ICBC, China 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Top BRICS Banks by Assets (Total Assets in USD bn) Standard Bank Group, SA Bank Assets of BRICS Banco do Brasil, Brazil Sberbank, Russia SBI, India ICBC, China 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Top BRICS Banks by Profit Standard Bank Group, SA ProfitinUSDBillion Bank Profits of BRICS
  • 38. DEGREE OF DIVERGENCE 38 4 BM&FBOVESPA Bombay SE Shanghai SE 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 BRICS Exchanges Market Capitalization MICEX Johannesburg SE Source: WFE USDBillion Stock Exchanges New Capital Issuance Source:Markets in Motion, FTKMC 2002 400 360 320 280 240 160 120 80 40 0 IPO Performance: BRIC as % of Global BRIC/GlobalBRICWorld 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2012 AmountraisedinUSDbn 2009 2010 20112008 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 0%
  • 39. 39 Financial Technologies Knowledge Management Co. Ltd. Fiscal Management Current Account Management 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 -140 -160 -180 Fiscal Balance (USD bn) 2012 Source: IMF Brazil Russia India South AfricaChina -56 12 -162 -17 107 250 200 150 100 50 0 -50 -100 Current Account Balance (USD bn) 2012 Source: IMF Brazil Russia India South AfricaChina -62 102 -75 -21 191
  • 40. SCOPE FOR REFORMS 40 5 Dominant State Ownership Dominant State Brazil China India 100 75 50 20 0 Government Ownership is predominant in the Banking Sector. Stock Market ownership is diverse ForeignPrivatePublic Source: Fitch, DB Research Russia % of Bank Assets Brazil India China 100 75 50 20 0 Corporate Bond Market, considered vital for the economy, is small with a large chunk of debt securities accounted for by the Government GovernmentFinancial InstitutionsCorporate Source: BIS Domestic debt securities as of June 2010, share of total in %
  • 41. 41 Financial Technologies Knowledge Management Co. Ltd. 1/07 7/07 1/08 7/08 1/09 7/09 2.65 2.45 2.25 2.05 1.85 1.65 1.45 1.25 Brazilian Real Exchange Rate Source: Brazillian Real (BRL) from Bloomberg ProfessionalCME, 1/10 7/10 1/11 7/11 1/12 7/12 Real apppreciating Real depreciating BrazilianRealperUSD 1/07 7/07 1/08 7/08 1/09 7/09 8.5 8.0 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0 Chinese Renminbi Exchange Rate Source: Chinese Renminbi (CNY) from Bloomberg ProfessionalCME, 1/10 7/10 1/11 7/11 1/12 7/12 ChineseRenminbiperUSD Renminbi apppreciating 1/07 7/07 1/08 7/08 1/09 7/09 58 59 54 52 50 48 46 44 42 40 38 Indian Rupee Exchange Rate Source: CME, Indian Rupee (INR) from Bloomberg Professional 1/10 7/10 1/11 7/11 1/12 7/12 IndianRupeeperUSD Rupee depreciating Rupee apppreciating 1/07 7/07 1/08 7/08 1/09 7/09 38 36 34 32 30 28 26 24 22 20 Russian Rouble Exchange Rate Source: Russian Ruble (RUB) from Bloomberg ProfessionalCME, 1/10 7/10 1/11 7/11 1/12 7/12 Rouble depreciating Rouble apppreciating RussianRoubleperUSD Exchange Rates
  • 42. PROSPECTS AND FORECAST 42 6 Potential for Growth in the Future 1980-89 1990-99 2000-10 2010-19 2020-29 2030-39 2040-50 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 A Peak Decade for Potential Global Growth BRICsN 11Other EMsDMs * Calculated using weights Source: IMF, GS Global ECS Research BRICs Output May Double Soon 80 90 00 10 20 30 40 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 00 The Share of BRICs in Global Output Poised to Double from Here BRICsN 11Other EMDM * Calculated using weights Source: IMF, GS Global ECS Research 50 Share of PPP-Adjusted GDP Levels
  • 43. 43 Financial Technologies Knowledge Management Co. Ltd. BRICs Will Have High Contribution to Global Growth 1980-89 1990-99 2000-09 2010-19 2020-29 2030-39 2040-50 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 00 Their Contribution to Global Growth may already have peaked BRICsN 11Other EMsDMs Source: IMF, GS Global ECS Research Share of PPP-weighted Global GDP Growth
  • 44. PROSPECTS AND FORECAST 44 6 Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers GDP growth estimates (rounded to nearest 0.1 % ), population growth projections from the E7 and G7 averages) Projected real growth rate for expanded group of emerging market economies: 2007-50 (% pa) Country Vietnam India Nigeria Philippines Egypt Bangladesh China Indonesia Pakistan E7average Malaysia Thailand Iran Brazil Turkey Argentina SouthAfrica SaudiArabia Mexico Russia Poland G7average GDP in US $ terms 9.8 8.5 8 7.2 7.1 7 6.8 6.7 6.4 6.4 5.8 5.7 5.2 5.2 5.1 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.3 3.4 2 GDP in domestic currency or at PPPs 6.8 5.8 6.1 5.2 5.1 5.1 4.7 4.5 4.9 4.5 4.3 3.6 3.8 3.8 4.1 3.7 3.7 4.1 3.7 2.5 2.1 2.2 Population 0.8 0.8 1.6 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.1 0.6 1.4 0.5 1 0.1 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.3 1.4 0.5 -0.6 -0.5 0.3 GDP per capita at PPPs 6 5 4.4 4.1 3.9 3.9 4.6 3.9 3.5 4 3.3 3.5 3 3.1 3.4 3 3.3 2.7 3.2 3.2 2.7 1.9 Economic Growth (PPP): Emerging Markets League Table
  • 45. 45 Financial Technologies Knowledge Management Co. Ltd. Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers estimates (using UN population projections) Projected relative size of economies in 2007 and 2050 (US=100) Country(indiceswithUS=100) US Japan China Germany UK France Italy Canada Spain Brazil Russia India Korea Mexico Australia Turkey Indonesia 2007 100 32 23 22 18 17 14 10 9 8 8 7 7 7 6 3 3 2050 100 19 129 14 14 14 10 9 9 26 17 88 8 17 6 10 17 2007 100 28 51 20 15 15 13 10 10 15 17 22 9 10 5 5 7 2050 100 19 129 14 14 14 10 9 9 26 17 88 8 17 6 10 17 GDP at market exhange rates in US $ terms GDP in PPP terms Projected Size of Economies
  • 46. ABOUT FINANCIAL TECHNOLOGIES (INDIA) LTD. 46 The Financial Technologies Group is among the global leaders in offering technology and domain expertise in the creation of next-generation financial markets that are transparent, efficient, and liquid across various asset classes, including equities, commodities, currencies, and fixed income segments. The Group operates one of the world’s largest network of exchanges connecting fast- growing economies from Asia to Africa. It also has five ecosystem ventures to address upstream and downstream opportunities around exchanges, including exchange and trading technologies, clearing, warehousing, real-time market information,mobilepaymentsolutions,andknowledgemanagement. The Group operates some of the most successful exchange industry ventures in India, such as Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX), India’s No. 1 commodity exchangeandthethirdlargestintheworld;IndianEnergyExchange(IEX)fortrading in electricity; and National Spot Exchange (NSEL) for spot trading in commodities. Its global forays include Singapore Mercantile Exchange (SMX), Dubai Gold and Commodities Exchange (DGCX), Bahrain Financial Exchange (BFX), Global Board of Trade (GBOT) in Mauritius, and Bourse Africa in Botswana. The Group has also promoted MCX Stock Exchange (MCX-SX) in India. MCX-SX has leadership in exchange-traded currency futures and is now majority-held (89%) by a large numberoffinancialinstitutionsandbanksinthepublicandprivatesectors. www.ftindia.com
  • 47. 47 Financial Technologies Knowledge Management Co. Ltd. Real-time information service provider that offers customized and cost-effective solutions for dataandinformation A pioneer in providing mobile payment solutions for a wide range of institutions, individuals andinvestors A leading provider of domain knowledge solutions and market development strategies in financial markets in India and abroad Real Time Information & Payment Solutions Knowledge Management Global Markets Trades in securities, derivatives, structured products and Shariah-compliantfinancialinstruments Apan-Africanmulti-commodityexchangethatwillsoonbegin itsoperations A leading international multi-asset exchange in Africa, based inMauritius The new-generation pan-Asia multi-asset exchange promotedbytheGroup Leading commodities exchange in the Gulf, originally set up bytheGroup,inwhichitnowholdssignificantstake Domestic Markets India’s largest commodity exchange trading in over 70 commodities, with global leadershipinGoldandSilver India’s largest spot exchange for tradingincommodities.Hasextensive businessrelationsacrossIndia India’s largest private sector warehousing and collateral m a n a g e m e n t c o m p a n y. Developing warehousing receipt financing India’s largest exchange for trading in electricity futures. It streamlined the distribution of powerinIndia Financial Technologies Group Promoted Exchange Industry and Ecosystem Ventures
  • 48. ABOUT FTKMC 48 Financial Technologies Knowledge Management Company Limited (FTKMC) is engaged in development of domain knowledge in financial markets in India, with a wide range of services including financial education, training, consultancy, research, publication, and advisory. A rich blend of conceptual clarity with a focus on market practice is embedded in the programmes designed by FTKMC, leading to wider acceptance from a cross-section of professionals. FTKMC has a team of domain experts who are well acquainted with the functioningofequity,currency,andcommodityexchanges. FTKMCcaterstothefollowingmajorconstituencies:policymakersandregulatoryauthoritieson subjects such as growing importance of financial markets in the economy and aspects of governance and management; financial institutions on market development strategies, resource mobilization and risk management; corporates and other business entities on the scope of harnessing and accessing financial markets and issuing securities and other instruments; intermediaries on the skill-sets and expertise required to operate in multi-asset- class markets, including trading and settlement; students to prepare them with knowledge and know-how for successful careers in financial markets; and investors to empower them with proper understanding and appreciation of the opportunities in the financial markets and risk andrewardsassociatedwithfinancialinvestments. FTKMC has carried out knowledge management projects in China, UAE, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Maldives, Ethiopia, Singapore, Mauritius, and Pakistan to name a few. FTKMC has successfully conducted nationwide programmes providing research, training, and consultancy services in promotion of market development in major segments such as commodity and currencyfutures,inadditiontoextensivecontentdevelopmentinfinancialmarkets. www.ftkmc.com
  • 49. 49 Financial Technologies Knowledge Management Co. Ltd. A WEEKLY BRIEFING ON MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS IN GLOBAL ECONOMY, FINANCE, AND MARKETS POSTGRADUATE DIPLOMA IN FINANCIAL MARKETS PRACTICE, JOINTLY WITH IGNOU, AND COLLABORATIONS WITH ACADEMIC INSTITUTIONS CONSULTATIONS AND COUNTRY EXPOSURE PROGRAMME ON FINANCIAL MARKETS FOR CEOs AND SENIOR DIRECTORS OF FINANCIAL FIRMS A TWO-WEEK PROGRAMME IN FINANCIAL MARKETS PRACTICE FOR PROFESSIONALS AND STUDENTS AN ANNUAL REVIEW OF DEVELOPMENTS IN GLOBAL AND DOMESTIC FINANCIAL MARKETS CERTIFICATE PROGRAMMES ON EQUITIES, DEBT, COMMODITIES, CURRENCIES
  • 50. PROFILE 50 Dr. Bandi Ram Prasad, President, Financial Technologies Knowledge Management Company Limited, has more than three decades of experience in financial markets, with expertise in banking, rural finance, consulting and capitalmarkets. Dr. Prasad held senior management positions in banking (Chief Economist, Indian Banks’ Association), capital markets (Chief General Manager/Chief Knowledge Officer, Bombay Stock Exchange), and consultancy (Principal Consultant, Dun and Bradstreet India Information Services Pvt Ltd). Currently he heads a premier facilityforKnowledgeManagementinthefinancialsector. Dr. Prasad has extensive interactions in the realm of capital markets as a member of the Working Committee of the World Federation of Exchanges and Asia-Oceania Federation of Exchanges while at Bombay Stock Exchange. He did consulting assignments for Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, GIZ (Germany), designed a high-level directors programme for Capital Market Development Authority, Maldives; regulation and development of commodity markets for Ethiopia Commodity Exchange Authority, coordinated two rounds of South Asian Capital Markets Conference for South Asian Federation of Exchanges. Designed and led Global Financial Markets Exposure Programmes for CEOs/top management professionals in financial markets. Dr. Prasad chaired a session in the World Knowledge Forum, held in October 2005 in Seoul. Dr. Prasad is currently implementing a comprehensive knowledge management project for Capital Market Authority, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. He developed master’s programmes on financial markets practice in association with leadingacademicinstitutions. Dr. Prasad is widely travelled and has contributed to various publications on financial markets, banking and capital markets. He regularly shares his views on financial markets in emerging economiesat various workshop, seminars,andresearchforums. Dr. Bandi Ram Prasad President, Financial Technologies Knowledge Management Company Limited www.ftkmc.com
  • 51. Financial Technologies Knowledge Management Co. Ltd. REFERENCES • NewGrowthDriverforLowIncomeCountries:TheRoleofBRICS,InternationalMonetaryFund(IMF),2011 • TheRoleofBRICSintheDevelopingWorld,Directorate-GeneralForExternalPolicies,PolicyDepartment,2012 • N O Jim, L Sandra and P Roopa;The BRICS and Global Markets: Crude, Cars and Capital;CEO Confidential, Goldman Sachs; October 2004 • H John and C Gordon; The World in 2050, Beyond the BRICs: a broader look at emerging market growth prospects; PricewaterhouseCoopers(PwC);March2008 • ASamanthaandPBlu;BRICCountryUpdate:SlowingGrowthintheFaceofInternalandExternalChallenges.MarketInsights,CMEGroup; July 2012 • The BRICs 10 Years On: Halfway Through The Great Transformation. Global Economics Paper No: 208, Goldman Sachs Global Economics,CommoditiesandStrategyResearch;December2011 • Industrial Energy Efficiency For Sustainable Wealth Creation, Industrial Development Report 2011, United Nations Industrial DevelopmentOrganization;2011 • www.worldbank.org • www.imf.org • www.world-exchanges.org • www.unido.org
  • 52. Disclaimer Address Disclaimer: The information contained in this report is prepared with all due care and skill. The information is obtained from sources believed to be true and reliable. Thecontentprovidedmakesnorepresentationorwarrantyregardingthecorrectness,accuracyorcompleteness,non-infringement,merchantability,and fitness of any information. The content and material provided are for general awareness and no claims will be entertained for any acts, errors, or omissions. Financial Technologies Knowledge Management Company Limited FT Tower, Suren Road, Chakala, Andheri (East), Mumbai 400093, India Tel: +91-22-66866010 | Fax: +91-22-66866050 | knowledgeformarkets@ftkmc.com | www.ftkmc.com