3. Disasters and Climate Change Scenario
Rate of increase of human Rate of Increase of Property
loss(1961‐1960 BS) loss(1961‐2060 BS)
7000
1200 1036
6000
1000
Human loss in %
Property loss in %
800 5000
600 4000
410 2639 Rate of
400 3000
162 Increase of
200 21 2000 Property
0 0 16
0 1000 loss, 223
loss, 223
‐200 0 ‐46 0
‐80
‐1000
Axis Title
Heavy precipitations
(rain or snow)
snow)
Storm (winds)
(winds)
River basin flooding
Hot & cold spells
Dust storms
Droughts Hail&Lightning
Flash floods
Avalanches
Mud & landslides

4. Humanitarian Impacts due to Hydro‐climatic Disasters
(
(Extreme Weather Impacts)
p )
Human Loss 10 Year Death & Property loss Loss (Property loss)
Death Property Linear Linear (Death)
y = 346.98x - 789.87
R2 = 0 6693 P
0.6693 Property Loss
t L
y = 75434x - 230976
4500 800000
R2 = 0.6064
4000 700000
P r o p e r t y lo s s in t h o u s a n d
3500 600000
3000 500000
2500
400000
D e a th
2000
i
Rs
300000
1500
200000
1000
500 100000
0 0
1961-70
1971-80
1981-90
1991-00
2001-10
2011-20
2021-30
2031-40
2041-50
2051-60
-500 -100000
-1000 -200000
Year
Y
Source : Paudel, D. 2006

5. Climate Change Scenario
(adopted from NDR,2009)
( d df NDR 2009)
• Nepal is the most vulnerable country to climate‐related
disasters due to increase in intensity and frequency of
disasters due to increase in intensity and frequency of
weather hazards(abrupt climate change)‐IPCC, 2007;
• Warming trends(1971‐94)‐ranging from 0.06 to 0.12 deg
cel; The hottest 5% of days and nights (1970‐1999);
• GCM projection: increase in temp over Nepal of 0.5‐2 deg
cel by 2030 and rising to 3 0‐6 3 deg by 2090;
by 2030 and rising to 3.0‐6.3 deg by 2090;
• The hottest days to be increased up to 55% by 2060s and
70% by 2090s;
• The hottest nights to be increased up to 77% by 2060s and
93% by 2090s;
• Precipitation changes in the monsoon: ‐14 to +40% by
h h b
2030s and increasing ‐52 to 135% by 2090s;

6. Climate Change
• IPCC defined "climate change" as: "a change of climate which is
attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the
composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to
natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods".
k|ToIf jf ck|ToIf ?kn] dfgljo lqmofsnfksf] sf/0fn]
k[YjLsf jfo'd08nsf
kYjLsf] jfod08nsf tTjx?df cfPsf] kl/jt{gn] jiff}{ b]lv
cfPsf kl/jtgn jiff blv
/lxcfPsf] k|fs[lts xfjfkfgLdf ePsf] kl/jt{gnfO{ g}
Cli t Change elgG5 .
Climate Ch
• IPCC refers to any significant change in climatic elements (temp,
pptn or wind) long term for an extended period( decades or longer)
pptn or wind) long‐term for an extended period( decades or longer)
• Climate change refers to any significant change in measures of
climate (such as temperature, precipitation, or wind) lasting for an
extended period (decades or longer).
extended period (decades or longer)

7. The Linkage: Climate Change and Climate
Disasters
Anthropogenic (Global Warming)
Climate Change( Abrupt Climate Change)
Rise in LST and SST
Variation in Precipitation Ice Melting and SLR
Flood Drought Cyclone and Storm Surge
Impacts on Livelihoods Assets (Loss of Property + Injury+ Death)
Disasters

8. Linkages between CC and Disasters
Linkages between CC and Disasters
Disaster Or Risk = Hazard* X Vulnerability
/(Capacity)
Hazard* : ( Extreme weather events) as a Result of CC
* ( )
CC affects disaster risk by two ways: 1.through the likely increase in
weather and climate hazards;
weather and climate hazards;
2. Increase in vulnerability of communities to natural hazards
through Ecosystem Degradation‐reduction in water and food
availability and changes to livelihoods;
il bilit d h t li lih d

9. Climate Change leads weathers
• Climate Variability: Unequal distribution of normal weather
system(amount, timing and intensity) with time and space
• The intensity and frequency of rainfall varies with Space and Time
The intensity and frequency of rainfall varies with Space and Time
For example: annual ppt in Mahabharat region(2500‐3000mm) and
cloudburst causes heavy rain suddenly like 500mm/day‐such cloudbursts‐
may occur at intervals of about 8‐10 years(NDR,2009)
• Extreme Rainfall Events
• More heat waves
More heat waves
• Increased drought
• Increased frequency of high ppt in particular regions
• Increases in the number & intensity of strong cyclone
• Higher temp and melting glaciers

10. Extreme Rainfall Events(>300 mm per day)‐
( p y)
Source: Paudel Deepak, 2001)
Period AD Frequency(extre
me rainfall)
me rainfall)
1950‐1970 4
1971‐1980 19
1981‐1990 33
1991‐2000 20 (beyond 1997 adopted from
NDR,2009)

11. CCA and DRR
CCA: The adjustment DRR: Action taken to reduce
CCA: The adjustment DRR: Action taken to reduce
in natural or human the risk of disasters and the
adverse impacts of natural
adverse impacts of natural
systems in response to hazards through systematic
i
actual or expected efforts to analyze and
climatic stimuli or their manage the causes of
disasters, including through
effects, which
, avoidance of hazards and
id fh d d
moderated harm or improved preparedness for
exploits beneficial
exploits beneficial adverse events(UNISDR,
adverse events(UNISDR
opportunities (IPCC) 2004)

12. Adaptation and DRR
Adaptation thro gh DRR HFA and Cost
through DRR‐HFA and Cost‐
Effectiveness : Preparing risk assessments(HFA
5); Protecting Ecosystems(HFA4), Improving
5) Protecting Ecosystems(HFA4) Improving
agricultural practices(HFA 4); Managing water
resources(HFA4); Building settlements in safe
resources(HFA4) Building settlements in safe
zones; Developing early warning
systems(HFA2); Improving insurance coverage
systems(HFA2); Improving insurance coverage
and Developing social safety nets(HFA4)

13. Existing DRR
Disaster
Response
Impact
Operation
Post Disaster
Recovery short and long
Long terms
Preparedness
Pre Disaster
Mitigation Development
A Basic DMC,
Prevention

14. Adaptation to Climate Disaster Risk
Disaster
Response
Impact
Operation and Emergency Recovery
Development
EWS (Long terms recovery)
Preparedness Based on Scientific Climate certainities sector-wiise
PES
(Prevention & Mitigation)

15. Linking & diff CCA and DRR
Divergence
Di Convergence
C
DRR CCA
Relevant to all hazards Relevant to climate-
related h
l t d hazards
d
Origin and culture in Origin and culture in CCA specialists : being
humanitarian assistance scientific theory involved from all sectors
including DRR sector
Most concerned with the Most concerned with Existing climate variability
present risks the future is an entry point for CCA
Traditional/indigenous …. may be insufficient Examples where
knowledge at community level for resilience against integration of scientific
is basis for resilience types and scales of knowledge and traditional
risk yet to be
y knowledge for DRR
g
experienced. provides learning
opportunities
Traditional focus on Traditional focus on Climatic disaster is the
vulnerability reduction physical exposure product of climatic
extremes/variability(physic
al exposure) and
vulnerability

16. Linking & diff CCA and DRR (based on Tearfund,2008)
Divergence Convergence
DRR CCA
Practical application at local Theoretical application Climate change
level at local level adaptation gaining
experience through
practical; local application
Full range of established and
g Limited range of tools
g None, except increasing
, p g
developing tools1 under development recognition that more
adaptation tools are
needed
Funding stream ad hoc and Funding streams DRR community engaging
insufficient sizeable and climate change adaptation
increasing
i i funding
f di mechanisms
h i

17. Why are existing adopted measures unable
to withstand CDs?
ih d ?
• the design is made without adequate consideration of climate change. The
measures are taken as mal‐adaptation in DRR
measures are taken as mal adaptation in DRR
• It is not considered future risk to CC .
• the best practices of DRR are considered adaptive measures to reduce
p , p g y
climatic impacts. However, due to rapid change in climatic variability and
its uncertainty, the natural and human systems are facing challenges to
adapt climatic disasters.
Hence, it requires re‐shaping, re‐designing of development practices
Hence it requires re shaping re designing of development practices
including social and economic practices to respond effectively to newly
environmental changes especially climatic extremes.
• For this, HFA guideline and sustainable development strategy is to some
extent appropriate to address CC by incorporating scientific program for
i dd b i i i ifi f
CC monitoring.

18. DRR in CCRM Process
DRR in CCRM Process
• UNFCCC emphasizes capacities for coping with
U CCC e p as es capac t es o cop g t
extreme weather events through Bali Action
Plan’s(BAP)‐CoP13
• CoP 13 highlights Risk Management and Risk
Reduction Strategies‐risk sharing and transfer
mechanism;
h i
• BAP focuses on DRR through vulnerability
assessments, capacity buildings, and response
assessments capacity buildings and response
strategies and integration of actions into sectoral
national planning;
p g;

19. Contd…
With consultation of ISDR system and UNFCCC
parties, UNISDR has identified the three areas of
action:
1. Develop national coordination mechanisms to
link DRR and Adaptation‐National Platform for
DRR and the national climate change team;
2. Conduct a baseline assessment on the status of
DRR and Adaptation efforts‐HFA implementation;
3. Prepare Adaptation Plans drawing on the Hyogo
Framework‐NAPA Documentation

20. Contd..
• DRR sector is one of the major thematic
DRR sector is one of the major thematic
component in NAPA
• Agriculture and Food Security
Agriculture and Food Security
• Forest and Bio‐diversity
• Water and Energy
Water and Energy
• Climate Induced Disasters
• P bli H lth
Public Health; and
d
• Human Settlements and Infrastructures

21. Institutional tools for DRR and CCA)
Silent Features of Proposed DM Act‐200(2063)
Silent Features of Proposed DM Act‐200(2063)
•Provision for National Council for Disaster
Management(NCDM) to be chaired by HR Prime Minister
P lt t N ti l Di t M t A th it
•Proposal to set up National Disaster Management Authority
(NDMA) under the NCDM, to act as the focal point for disaster
management functions in Nepal from formulation of
appropriate strategies and plans to implementation and
appropriate strategies and plans to implementation and
supervision of disaster management activities
•Emphasizes on development of micro and macro hazard and
vulnerability maps for disaster prone areas to inform decision
vulnerability maps for disaster prone areas to inform decision
makers to address disaster risk reduction effectively

22. (NSDRM‐2009)
Guided by Priority Actions of HFA(2005‐2015) and is based on TDRM
( )
approach;
NSDRM have highlighted sectoral strategy(nine sectors):
Agriculture and food security ;
Agriculture and food security ;
Health and Nutrition;
Education;
Shelter, infrastructures and physical planning;
, p y p g;
Livelihoods and Protection;
Water and Sanitation;
Forest and Soil Conservation;
Information, Communication, Coordination and Management, and Logistic;
Tracing, Rescue, Damage Assessment and Needs Analysis

23. • Institutional Framework
• National Council for Disaster Management (NCDM)
• National Disaster Management Authority(NDMA) and
Committees as a Secreteriate of NCDM
• Regional Disaster Management Committee;
• Di t i t Di t M
District Disaster Management Committee and Sub
tC itt dS b
committees
• Local Disaster Management Committee
Local Disaster Management Committee
• Community Based Organizations;
• Disaster Management Authority at Local Level
g y

24. Conclusions and Recommendation: Policy Options
1. Enhance Scientific certainities
1 Enhance Scientific certainities
• Develop scientific programes for CC monitoring‐ well‐
equipped stations and longterm monitoring, networling
equipped stations and longterm monitoring networling
and cooperation
• Promote and apply regional climate model rather than
Promote and apply regional climate model rather than
Global climate model‐inoder to identify hot spots of CC;
2. Promote Mitigation Measures
g
Land use management for carbon sinks and reduced
emissions
Payment for ecosystem services(PES)
p g
Development of alternative technologies

25. 3. Adaptations measures
DRR and EWS
DRR and EWS
Support and promote community‐led adaptations
Pay more attention to sectors particularly water,
Pay more attention to sectors particularly water
agriculture, health, HM disaster risks into NAPA
p
Develeope IWRM
4. Public Awarness
Information to local community;
Enagement of the media and academia;
A fruitful facilitation of international policy diologe
and cooperation