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Africa
Mobile Trend Analysis




Africa remains focused on data market growth


For further details about the data in these slides, click on the URL links to the live sites below each data set
If you have any requests or suggestions for other data sets to be included, please contact us at Analyst Support
analystsupport@informa.com                                                                                          © Informa UK Limited 2011. All rights reserved.
Africa Highlights
   By end 4Q11, Africa’s mobile subscriptions reached at 645.98 million translating to a penetration of
    60.45% and a year-on-year growth of 19.12%.

   Nigeria maintained the market lead in the African continent with 95.22 million mobile subscribers and a
    penetration of 58.22% in 4Q11.

   MTN Nigeria continues to be Africa’s biggest operator with 41.64 million mobile subscribers as of 4Q11.

   Ethiopia to have a CAGR of 17.1% by 2017, the highest in the region.



   Africa’s mobile broadband subscriptions reached 15.4 million in 4Q11 with South Africa leading with 7
    million. Vodacom South Africa remained the top African mobile broadband operator in 4Q11 with 3.5
    million subscribers

   HSPA to dominate Africa’s mobile subscription by 2017 representing 74.2% of the total.

   Africa see three commercial LTE network launches
Mobile subscription data
            Increased growth rate in 2H11 see the region’s penetration rate surpass 60%
                                                                                African subscriptions vs quarterly growth                                                                       Share of African subscriptions, 4Q11
                                                                                       Subscriptions (mn)                 Quarterly growth (%)
                                                                        660                                                                              7.00%                                                    Nigeria
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   15%                    Egypt
                                           Subscriptions (millions)




                                                                        640
                                                                                                                                                         6.00%                                                                            12%
                                                                        620
                                                                                                                                                         5.00%




                                                                                                                                                                 Growth (%)
                                                                        600
                                                                        580                                                                              4.00%                                                                                     South Africa
                                                                                                                                                                                       Others                                                          9%
                                                                        560                                                                              3.00%                          48%
                                                                        540
                                                                                                                                                         2.00%
                                                                        520
                                                                                                                                                         1.00%
                                                                        500
                                                                        480                                                                              0.00%                                                                                               Morocco
                                                                               4Q10       1Q11          2Q11                 3Q11             4Q11                                                                                                             7%


                                         African Summary                                4Q10                1Q11                 2Q11                  3Q11                   4Q11                        Kenya                                    Algeria
                                                                                                                                                                                                           4%                                        6%
                                         Subscriptions (m)                                 542,5               566,6                589,5               616,3                  645,5
                                         Net adds (m)                                                                                                                           29,2
                                                                                            31,1                   24,2               22,9               26,8                                       Share of African net additions, 4Q11
                                         Quarterly growth (%)                                                                                                                                                               Egypt
                                                                                            6,09                   4,45               4,05               4,54                   4,74                                        13%
                                         Penetration (%)                                                                                                                                 Others
                                                                                           51,93               53,93                55,80               58,00                  60,41      44%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Ethiopia
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        13%
                                                                              Quarterly net additions comparison 4Q10 and 4Q11
Subscription net additions




                                                                      6,000

                                                                      5,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Nigeria
                             Thousands




                                                                      4,000                                                                                                                                                                           11%
                                                                                                                                                                               4Q10
                                                                      3,000                                                                                                                                                                Sudan
                                                                                                                                                                               4Q11                                                         7%
                                                                      2,000

                                                                      1,000                                                                                                                             Uganda                  South Africa
                                                                                                                                                                                                         4%                         6%
                                                                         0
                                                                               Egypt     Egypt              Mali           Ethiopia          Morocco      Uganda

  Subscriptions
Country Focus: Nigeria
                                Nigeria recovers from negative growth brought about by SIM card registration in 1H11
                                          Subscriptions (million)          Quarterly Growth (%)

                          100                                                                            10
Subscriptions (million)




                          80




                                                                                                              Growth (%)
                                                                                                         5
                                                                                                                                        Share of Nigerian subscriptions, 4Q11
                          60                                                                                                 Etisalat                              Airtel
                                                                                                                              11%                                  19%
                          40
                                                                                                         0                                                                  Rest
                                                                                                                                                                            5%
                          20

                           0                                                                             -5                                                             Glo Mobile
                                   4Q10        1Q11                 2Q11          3Q11            4Q11                                                                     21%

By end 4Q11, Nigeria had a total of 95.22 million mobile subscribers and
                                                                                                                            MTN
a total penetration of 58.22%. The country experienced a positive growth                                                    44%
rate of 3.44% as operators recover from the negative growth rates
brought about by SIM card registration in 1H11.

                                                                                                                                        Share of Nigerian net additions, 4Q11
                                                                                                                                           Airtel
Increased competition in 2H11 saw MTN lose its market share from 45.2%                                                                     36%
in 2Q11 to 44% in 4Q11. However, it continued to maintain the market lead
with over 41 million subscribers                                                                                                                                      Glo Mobile
                                                                                                                                                                         1%



                                                                                                                                                                        MTN
Etisalat registered the highest number of new subscribers in 4Q11,                                                                                                      14%
amounting to 1.87 million and representing 49% of the total net
additions over the quarter.
                                                                                                                           Etisalat
                                                                                                                            49%
Country Focus: Egypt
                                 Egypt sees increased mobile penetration in 2H11
                    Egypt subscription and quarterly growth, 4Q10-4Q11                                                        By the end of 4Q11, Egypt had 80.82 million mobile
                                                                                                                              subscribers representing a penetration of 93.26%. The
                                            Subscriptions   Quarterly growth (%)
                    100                                                                             10                        year on-year growth rate for the quarter stood at 18.32%
                                                                                                                              compared with 23.4% in 4Q10.
                                                                                                    8
Subscriptions (m)




                                                                                                    6




                                                                                                         Growth (%)
                                                                                                                              Vodafone maintained the market lead in 4Q11 with 44%
                    80
                                                                                                                              market share and 36.36 million subscribers. Total net
                                                                                                    4
                                                                                                                              additions for the quarter stood at 3.74 million
                                                                                                    2


                    60                                                                              0
                             4Q10               1Q11        2Q11            3Q11          4Q11




                            Share of Egypt subscriptions, 4Q11
                                                                                                                      Share Egypt net additions, 4Q11
                                                                                                                                                             ECMS
                      Vodafone                                                     ECMS                                                                       1%
                        44%                                                        36%

                                                                                                 Vodafone
                                                                                                  Egypt
                                                                                                   64%




                                 Etisalat
                                  17%
                                                                                                                                                        Etisalat
                                                                                                                                                         35%
Country Focus: South Africa
                            South Africa records positive growth in 2H11
                                                                                                                      Share of South Africa subscriptions, 4Q11
                    South Africa subscription and quarterly growth, 4Q10-4Q11
                                     Subscriptions   Quarterly growth (%)
                                                                                                                                                             8ta
                    60                                                                 8
                                                                                                                                                             2%
                                                                                                          Vodacom
                                                                                       7                    44%
                    50
Subscriptions (m)




                                                                                       6                                                                       Cell C
                    40                                                                                                                                         16%
                                                                                       5




                                                                                             Growth (%)
                    30                                                                 4

                                                                                       3
                    20
                                                                                       2
                    10
                                                                                       1
                                                                                                                    MTN
                     0                                                                 0                            38%
                           4Q10         1Q11         2Q11           3Q11     4Q11


                                                                                                                          Share of South Africa net additions, 4Q11
                                                                                                                                8ta                Vodacom
                                                                                                                               15%                   16%

                At the end of 4Q11, South Africa had 58.24 million mobile subscribers
                representing a penetration of 114.53%. The quarterly growth rate stood at
                3.43% compared to 0.55% in 2Q11.


                                                                                                                                                                   Cell C
                Vodacom maintained the market leader position with 44% market share                                                                                14%
                and 25.35 million subscribers. However, it is closely followed by MTN with
                22.03 million subscriber.
                                                                                                                    MTN
                                                                                                                    55%
                MTN registered the highest net additions for the quarter amounting to 1.07
                million. This represented 55% of the total net additions in 4Q11
Top 20 markets by net additions in the year to end 4Q11
Top 20 markets by % growth in the year to end 4Q11




* Markets with more than 4 million subscriptions
Subscription forecasts, 2012-2017
                 Ethiopia to record highest CAGR growth by 2017
                                                    Africa by CAGR, 2012-2017 (countries with subs +10 million)
                                     18
                                     16
                                     14
                                     12
                          CAGR (%)
                                     10
                                      8
                                      6
                                      4
                                      2
                                      0




                                                                                                                                                                   Uganda
                                                                                                                                       Cameroon
                                                                                                Ghana


                                                                                                        Nigeria




                                                                                                                                                   Kenya


                                                                                                                                                            Mali




                                                                                                                                                                                           Rep of Congo
                                                    Sudan




                                                                    Côte d'Ivoire




                                                                                                                                                                                Tanzania
                                                            Egypt
                                          Morocco




                                                                                    Senegal




                                                                                                                                                                                                           Ethiopia
                                                                                                                                                                                            Democratic
                Africa top ten net addition 2012-2017                                                                                                 Africa Subscription Forecast 2012-2017
           14
                                                                                                                                    1,200
           12




                                                                                                         Subscriptions (millions)
           10                                                                                                                       1,000

           8                                                                                                                         800
Millions




           6
                                                                                                                                     600
           4
                                                                                                                                     400
           2

           0                                                                                                                         200


                                                                                                                                         0
                                                                                              2012                                                 2012         2013           2014                   2015            2016      2017
                                                                                                                                                  Nigeria      Egypt        South Africa               Algeria        Morocco    Rest
                                                                                              2017



   Forecasts
3G/4G trends
                                             Africa’s mobile data segment grows as more operators launch 3G+ networks
                                                                                                                                           Network deployments 2H11
                                               Africa 3G/4G subscriptions forecast by technology
                               700
                                                                                                                                           Start date   Country      Operator              Technology
                               600
                                                                                                                                           3Q11         Burundi      Econet                W-CDMA-2100
    Subscriptions (millions)




                               500
                                                                                                                                           3Q11         Ghana        Tigo                  W-CDMA-2100
                               400
                                                                                                                                           3Q11         Kenya        Orange                W-CDMA-2100
                               300
                                                                                                                                                        Sierra
                                                                                                                                           3Q11                      Africell              W-CDMA-2100
                                                                                                                                                        Leone
                               200
                                                                                                                                           3Q11         Tunisia      Tunisie Telecom       W-CDMA-2100
                               100
                                                                                                                                           3Q11         Nigeria      Etisalat              W-CDMA-2100
                                0
                                            2012            2013           2014             2015        2016           2017                4Q11         Burundi      UCom                  W-CDMA-2100

                                                                   W-CDMA         1xEV-DO      HSPA    LTE                                 4Q11         Congo        Bharti Airtel         W-CDMA-2100
                                                   3G subscriptions by country, 4Q10 vs 4Q11
                                 14.0                                                                                                                                                      WiMAX-Mobile-
                                                                                                                                           4Q11         Nigeria      Spectranet
                                                                                                                                                                                           2300
                                 12.0
    Subscriptions (millions)




                                 10.0                                                                                                      4Q11         Swaziland    MTN                   W-CDMA-2100

                                     8.0                                                                                                                                                   W-CDMA-2100
                                                                                                                                           4Q11         Uganda       Warid
                                     6.0
                                                                                                                                           4Q11         Mauritius    Mahanagar Telephone   GSM-900
                                     4.0
                                                                                                                                                                                           W-CDMA-2100
                                                                                                                                           4Q11         Cape Verde   T+
                                     2.0

                                     0.0                                                                                                                Guinea                             W-CDMA-2100
                                                                                                                                           4Q11                      Orange Guinee
                                           South Africa Egypt   Nigeria   Kenya    Morocco Zimbabwe Tunisia Tanzania   Angola   Ethiopia                Republic

                                                                                                                                                                                           W-CDMA-900
                                                                             4Q10      4Q11                                                4Q11         Togo         TogoCel

3G defined as W-CDMA, HSPA, EV-DO and EV-DO Rev A
3G/HSPA subscriptions
Network launches
Technology forecast, 2012-2017
                                         HSPA to dominate Africa’s mobile subscriptions by 2017

                                                                                                                                        Africa Country share of HSPA subscriptions, 2012

                                             Africa subscription forecast by technology                                                                    Others
                                                                                                                                                            25%
                               1,400
                                                                                                                                                                                     South Africa
                                                                                                                                              Kenya                                     40%
                               1,200                                                                                                           7%
                                                                                                                                    Morocco
                                                                                                                                      6%
    Subscriptions (millions)




                               1,000
                                                                                                                                               Egypt
                                800                                                                                                             7%
                                                                                                                                                              Nigeria
                                                                                                                                                               15%
                                600
                                                                                                                                           Africa Country share of HSPA subscriptions, 2017

                                400

                                                                                                                                                                           South Africa
                                200                                                                                                                                           13% Nigeria
                                                                                                                                                                                   11%
                                  0                                                                                                                                                         Egypt
                                                                                                                                         Others                                             11%
                                          2012          2013          2014           2015            2016           2017                  52%

                                       2G and 2.5G(GSM, GPRS, EDGE, 1xRTT)         3G (WCDMA, EV-DO)                                                                                   Morocco
                                                                                                                                                                                         6%
                                       3.5G (HSPA, EV-DO Rev. A)                   4G (LTE)
                                                                                                                                                                        Kenya
                                                                                                                                                                         7%

                                  Forecast for 3G
                                                                   2012          2013            2014           2015           2016               2017
                                  Split

                                  WCDMA-only                 40,714,700      54,829,100     70,211,100      85,961,900     99,306,600 108,669,800

                                  HSPA                       36,977,300      68,373,700 118,733,100 191,638,000 289,757,000 408,749,000

                                  1x EV-DO                     3,478,600      5,275,300       8,624,300     14,786,300     23,269,800     33,185,800


Forecasts
Mobile broadband summary
                                                                    South Africa leads Africa’s mobile broadband market
                                                                                                                                                                                        Top African mobile broadband operators, 4Q11
                                                     Africa’s mobile broadband subscriptions 4Q10-4Q11
                                                                                                                                                                                                               Subscriptions (thousands)
                                           18,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                        0   500     1,000      1,500   2,000   2,500
                                           16,000
               Subscriptions (thousands)




                                                                                                                                                                              Vodacom South Africa
                                           14,000
                                           12,000                                                                                                                                 MTN South Africa
                                           10,000
                                                                                                                                                                                        MTN Nigeria
                                            8,000
                                            6,000
                                                                                                                                                                                  Globacom Nigeria
                                            4,000

                                            2,000                                                                                                                                    Wana Morocco

                                                 0
                                                                                                                                                                                   Safaricom Kenya
                                                                    4Q10                  1Q11               2Q11                3Q11                        4Q11

                                                                                                                                                                                      Etisalat Egypt

                                                                         Top mobile broadband markets, 4Q11
                                                                                                                                                                              Médi Télécom Morocco
                                   8,000
   Subscriptions (thousands)




                                   7,000                                                                                                                                        Ittissalat Al-Maghrib
                                   6,000
                                                                                                                                                                                       Unitel Angola
                                   5,000
                                   4,000
                                   3,000
                                   2,000                                                                                                                                          Note: Mobile broadband subscriptions refer to the
                                   1,000                                                                                                                                                number of active subscriptions used in a device
                                                                                                                                                                                        enabled for HSPA, EV-DO, or EV-DO Rev A
                                             0
                                                                                                                                                                                        covering all device types (data-cards, USB
                                                                                                     Kenya




                                                                                                                         Ghana


                                                                                                                                        Namibia
                                                                      Nigeria
                                                     South Africa




                                                                                             Egypt




                                                                                                                                                  Botswana
                                                                                                                Angola




                                                                                                                                                                    Réunion
                                                                                Morocco




                                                                                                                                                                                        modems, embedded notebooks and handsets).




http://www.informatm.com/itmgcontent/icoms/reports/3000004726.xls
Data market
                                           Africa sees 13.5% y-o-y growth in data revenues in 4Q11
                                                    Data revenues by operator, 3Q11
                           400

                           350
                                                                                                                                                   Africa continues to register growth in data revenues as
                                                                                                                                                    operators shift their focus to mobile data as the key
   Data revenues (US$ m)




                           300                                                                                                                      revenue driver amid dwindling voice service revenues. In
                           250                                                                                                                      4Q11, total data revenues amounted to over US$1.4
                                                                                                                                                    billion representing a 13.5% increase over 4Q10.
                           200

                           150
                                                                                                                                                   South Africa lead the Africa’s data market in 4Q11
                           100                                                                                                                      generating a total of US$612.46 million. However,
                            50                                                                                                                      Starcomms Nigeria posted the highest data revenue
                                                                                                                                                    (40%) as a percentage of total revenue over the quarter.
                             0
                                 Vodacom   MTN SA   Safaricom    MTN       Ittissalat   Unitel      Libyana   Orascom    ECMS    Vodafone
                                    SA                          Nigeria   Al-Maghrib    Angola                 Algeria   Egypt    Egypt
                                                                                                                                                   The growth in data revenues is largely attributed to   the
                                                                                                                                                    adoption of 3G+ networks by more operators in          the
                                                                                                                                                    region as well as aggressive marketing campaigns        for
                                                                                                                                                    data products. In 2H11, 13 operators launched           3G
                                      Data revenues as a percentage of service revenues by operator,
                                                                                                                                                    services to their customers.
                                                                  3Q11
                           45%
                                                                                                                                                   As of 2Q12, Africa has seen three commercial LTE
                           40%                                                                                                                      network launches. Angola’s Movicel became the first
                                  40%
Data revenues (%)




                           35%                                                                                                                      operator to launch LTE services in Africa. It was followed
                                                                                                                                                    closely Namibia’s MTC and Mauritius’s Emcel.
                           30%

                           25%              28%

                           20%                        22%         22%         21%
                           15%

                           10%                                                            14%          13%        13%       13%       12%
                           5%

                           0%
                                 Starcomms Safaricom Vodacom      MTC         MTN SA       Airtel      Unitel    Vodacom   Vodacom    Tigo TZ
                                                        SA       Namibia                  Zambia       Angola       TZ      Lesotho




World Cellular Data Metrics
Data usage summary
                       Non-SMS data has become the main data revenues contributor in key markets
              Top 10 operators by non-SMS data revenues as
                                                                                        Africa continues to register growth in non-SMS data segment. In 3Q11, the
                     % of total data revenues, 3Q11
                                                                                         contribution of non-SMS data to total data revenues in Africa remained way
                                                                                         beyond 50% as demand for mobile Internet increase.
                            0.0   10.0   20.0    30.0    40.0   50.0   60.0   70.0
                                                                                        The availability of low-cost smartphones has increased adoption in the
       MTN South Africa                                           61.9%                  continent. Informa Telecoms & Media forecasts a penetration of 11% by
                                                                                         2016.

   Vodacom South Africa                                           61.9%



            MTN Ghana                                     50.0%


                                                                                                    Smartphone connections forecast – Africa, 2012 - 2016
            MTN Nigeria                                  50.0%
                                                                                                           Smartphone connections          Smartphones penetration rate

        Safaricom Kenya                                 46.0%
                                                                                                    80                                                                10.00%
                                                                                         Millions
       Globacom Nigeria                                 46.0%
                                                                                                    60                                                                7.50%

           Airtel Nigeria                          43.0%
                                                                                                    40                                                                5.00%

           MTC Namibia                     34.0%

                                                                                                    20                                                                2.50%

            Airtel Kenya                 28.7%

                                                                                                    -                                                                 0.00%
                                                                                                           2012       2013          2014       2015        2016
           Airtel Zambia          20.0%


World Cellular Data Metrics
Operator performance indicators
                            Increased competition in Africa sees a decline in operator’s blended ARPU
                                                           Average blended ARPU by country, 4Q10-4Q11
                                            35.00                                                                                            Angola

                                                                                                                                             South Africa
                                            30.00
                                                                                                                                             Cape Verde

                                            25.00                                                                                            Botswana

                                                                                                                                             Mauritius
                               ARPU (US$)




                                            20.00
                                                                                                                                             Tunisia

                                            15.00                                                                                            Morocco

                                                                                                                                             Swaziland
                                            10.00                                                                                            Gabon

                                                                                                                                             Equitorial
                                             5.00                                                                                            Guinea
                                                                                                                                             Congo

                                             0.00
                                                    4Q10           1Q11            2Q11             3Q11            4Q11
                                                                    http://www.wcisplus.com/xls/GlobalARPU.xls

                Highest ARPU by operator, 4Q11                                                      Lowest ARPU by operator, 4Q11
                                                                   Blended                                                                                  Blended
         Country                       Operator                                                  Country          Operator
                                                                   ARPU (US$)                                                                               ARPU (US$)

        Reunion                 SFR Reunion                                       40.00         Benin            Etisalat Benin                                      3.40

        Cape Verde              Cabo Verde Telecom                                 31.52        Rwanda           Tigo Rwanda                                         3.31

        Mauritius               Mahanagar Telephone Mauritius                      28.50        Madagascar       Orange Madagascar                                   3.04

        Equitorial Guinea       Getesa                                             28.00        Ghana            Kasapa                                              2.74

        Reunion                 Outremer Telecom Reunion                           24.50        Benin            Bell Benin Communications                           2.40

        Angola                  Unitel Angola                                      23.00        Burundi          Onatel Burundi                                      2.20

        Libya                   Libyana                                            23.00        Guinea Republic Sotelgul                                            1.35



KPI's
Key Outlook
   According to Informa Telecoms & Media forecast, African will have 1.12 billion subscriptions by end-2017 up from
    649.7 million in end-2011, representing a 72.3% increase.

   Africa’s mobile broadband market continues to be dominated by 3G+ connections. This is expected to be the case in
    the near future despite the great interest in LTE by operators in the region.

   The data market is expected to grow in double digits in the region as competition among operators intensifies. The
    availability of low-cost smartphones such as Huawei Ideos and Samsung Galaxy Pocket will also see a surge in data
    usage.

   More operators in the region continue to adopt mobile money transfer services as key revenue channels. However,
    the service has evolved from a mere P2P to more integrated mobile financial service that will require necessary
    security measures to prevent fraud.

   Telecom regulators in the region continue to outline various measures to ensure quality of service provision by
    operators. Nigeria, Ghana and Uganda are a few markets where operators have been served with hefty penalties
    for poor quality of service. This is expected to spread in other markets and will force operators to invest heavily in
    improving the quality of services they provide to their customers

   The commercial launch of LTE services by Movicel, MTC and Emcel is expected to lead the way for other operators
    in Africa. Several operators in Africa have already completed LTE trials and are only awaiting spectrum auctions for
    them to roll out the networks .

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Africa summary 2011h2

  • 1. www.informatandm.com Africa Mobile Trend Analysis Africa remains focused on data market growth For further details about the data in these slides, click on the URL links to the live sites below each data set If you have any requests or suggestions for other data sets to be included, please contact us at Analyst Support analystsupport@informa.com © Informa UK Limited 2011. All rights reserved.
  • 2. Africa Highlights  By end 4Q11, Africa’s mobile subscriptions reached at 645.98 million translating to a penetration of 60.45% and a year-on-year growth of 19.12%.  Nigeria maintained the market lead in the African continent with 95.22 million mobile subscribers and a penetration of 58.22% in 4Q11.  MTN Nigeria continues to be Africa’s biggest operator with 41.64 million mobile subscribers as of 4Q11.  Ethiopia to have a CAGR of 17.1% by 2017, the highest in the region.  Africa’s mobile broadband subscriptions reached 15.4 million in 4Q11 with South Africa leading with 7 million. Vodacom South Africa remained the top African mobile broadband operator in 4Q11 with 3.5 million subscribers  HSPA to dominate Africa’s mobile subscription by 2017 representing 74.2% of the total.  Africa see three commercial LTE network launches
  • 3. Mobile subscription data Increased growth rate in 2H11 see the region’s penetration rate surpass 60% African subscriptions vs quarterly growth Share of African subscriptions, 4Q11 Subscriptions (mn) Quarterly growth (%) 660 7.00% Nigeria 15% Egypt Subscriptions (millions) 640 6.00% 12% 620 5.00% Growth (%) 600 580 4.00% South Africa Others 9% 560 3.00% 48% 540 2.00% 520 1.00% 500 480 0.00% Morocco 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 7% African Summary 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 Kenya Algeria 4% 6% Subscriptions (m) 542,5 566,6 589,5 616,3 645,5 Net adds (m) 29,2 31,1 24,2 22,9 26,8 Share of African net additions, 4Q11 Quarterly growth (%) Egypt 6,09 4,45 4,05 4,54 4,74 13% Penetration (%) Others 51,93 53,93 55,80 58,00 60,41 44% Ethiopia 13% Quarterly net additions comparison 4Q10 and 4Q11 Subscription net additions 6,000 5,000 Nigeria Thousands 4,000 11% 4Q10 3,000 Sudan 4Q11 7% 2,000 1,000 Uganda South Africa 4% 6% 0 Egypt Egypt Mali Ethiopia Morocco Uganda Subscriptions
  • 4. Country Focus: Nigeria Nigeria recovers from negative growth brought about by SIM card registration in 1H11 Subscriptions (million) Quarterly Growth (%) 100 10 Subscriptions (million) 80 Growth (%) 5 Share of Nigerian subscriptions, 4Q11 60 Etisalat Airtel 11% 19% 40 0 Rest 5% 20 0 -5 Glo Mobile 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 21% By end 4Q11, Nigeria had a total of 95.22 million mobile subscribers and MTN a total penetration of 58.22%. The country experienced a positive growth 44% rate of 3.44% as operators recover from the negative growth rates brought about by SIM card registration in 1H11. Share of Nigerian net additions, 4Q11 Airtel Increased competition in 2H11 saw MTN lose its market share from 45.2% 36% in 2Q11 to 44% in 4Q11. However, it continued to maintain the market lead with over 41 million subscribers Glo Mobile 1% MTN Etisalat registered the highest number of new subscribers in 4Q11, 14% amounting to 1.87 million and representing 49% of the total net additions over the quarter. Etisalat 49%
  • 5. Country Focus: Egypt Egypt sees increased mobile penetration in 2H11 Egypt subscription and quarterly growth, 4Q10-4Q11 By the end of 4Q11, Egypt had 80.82 million mobile subscribers representing a penetration of 93.26%. The Subscriptions Quarterly growth (%) 100 10 year on-year growth rate for the quarter stood at 18.32% compared with 23.4% in 4Q10. 8 Subscriptions (m) 6 Growth (%) Vodafone maintained the market lead in 4Q11 with 44% 80 market share and 36.36 million subscribers. Total net 4 additions for the quarter stood at 3.74 million 2 60 0 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 Share of Egypt subscriptions, 4Q11 Share Egypt net additions, 4Q11 ECMS Vodafone ECMS 1% 44% 36% Vodafone Egypt 64% Etisalat 17% Etisalat 35%
  • 6. Country Focus: South Africa South Africa records positive growth in 2H11 Share of South Africa subscriptions, 4Q11 South Africa subscription and quarterly growth, 4Q10-4Q11 Subscriptions Quarterly growth (%) 8ta 60 8 2% Vodacom 7 44% 50 Subscriptions (m) 6 Cell C 40 16% 5 Growth (%) 30 4 3 20 2 10 1 MTN 0 0 38% 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 Share of South Africa net additions, 4Q11 8ta Vodacom 15% 16% At the end of 4Q11, South Africa had 58.24 million mobile subscribers representing a penetration of 114.53%. The quarterly growth rate stood at 3.43% compared to 0.55% in 2Q11. Cell C Vodacom maintained the market leader position with 44% market share 14% and 25.35 million subscribers. However, it is closely followed by MTN with 22.03 million subscriber. MTN 55% MTN registered the highest net additions for the quarter amounting to 1.07 million. This represented 55% of the total net additions in 4Q11
  • 7. Top 20 markets by net additions in the year to end 4Q11
  • 8. Top 20 markets by % growth in the year to end 4Q11 * Markets with more than 4 million subscriptions
  • 9. Subscription forecasts, 2012-2017 Ethiopia to record highest CAGR growth by 2017 Africa by CAGR, 2012-2017 (countries with subs +10 million) 18 16 14 12 CAGR (%) 10 8 6 4 2 0 Uganda Cameroon Ghana Nigeria Kenya Mali Rep of Congo Sudan Côte d'Ivoire Tanzania Egypt Morocco Senegal Ethiopia Democratic Africa top ten net addition 2012-2017 Africa Subscription Forecast 2012-2017 14 1,200 12 Subscriptions (millions) 10 1,000 8 800 Millions 6 600 4 400 2 0 200 0 2012 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Nigeria Egypt South Africa Algeria Morocco Rest 2017 Forecasts
  • 10. 3G/4G trends Africa’s mobile data segment grows as more operators launch 3G+ networks Network deployments 2H11 Africa 3G/4G subscriptions forecast by technology 700 Start date Country Operator Technology 600 3Q11 Burundi Econet W-CDMA-2100 Subscriptions (millions) 500 3Q11 Ghana Tigo W-CDMA-2100 400 3Q11 Kenya Orange W-CDMA-2100 300 Sierra 3Q11 Africell W-CDMA-2100 Leone 200 3Q11 Tunisia Tunisie Telecom W-CDMA-2100 100 3Q11 Nigeria Etisalat W-CDMA-2100 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 4Q11 Burundi UCom W-CDMA-2100 W-CDMA 1xEV-DO HSPA LTE 4Q11 Congo Bharti Airtel W-CDMA-2100 3G subscriptions by country, 4Q10 vs 4Q11 14.0 WiMAX-Mobile- 4Q11 Nigeria Spectranet 2300 12.0 Subscriptions (millions) 10.0 4Q11 Swaziland MTN W-CDMA-2100 8.0 W-CDMA-2100 4Q11 Uganda Warid 6.0 4Q11 Mauritius Mahanagar Telephone GSM-900 4.0 W-CDMA-2100 4Q11 Cape Verde T+ 2.0 0.0 Guinea W-CDMA-2100 4Q11 Orange Guinee South Africa Egypt Nigeria Kenya Morocco Zimbabwe Tunisia Tanzania Angola Ethiopia Republic W-CDMA-900 4Q10 4Q11 4Q11 Togo TogoCel 3G defined as W-CDMA, HSPA, EV-DO and EV-DO Rev A 3G/HSPA subscriptions Network launches
  • 11. Technology forecast, 2012-2017 HSPA to dominate Africa’s mobile subscriptions by 2017 Africa Country share of HSPA subscriptions, 2012 Africa subscription forecast by technology Others 25% 1,400 South Africa Kenya 40% 1,200 7% Morocco 6% Subscriptions (millions) 1,000 Egypt 800 7% Nigeria 15% 600 Africa Country share of HSPA subscriptions, 2017 400 South Africa 200 13% Nigeria 11% 0 Egypt Others 11% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 52% 2G and 2.5G(GSM, GPRS, EDGE, 1xRTT) 3G (WCDMA, EV-DO) Morocco 6% 3.5G (HSPA, EV-DO Rev. A) 4G (LTE) Kenya 7% Forecast for 3G 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Split WCDMA-only 40,714,700 54,829,100 70,211,100 85,961,900 99,306,600 108,669,800 HSPA 36,977,300 68,373,700 118,733,100 191,638,000 289,757,000 408,749,000 1x EV-DO 3,478,600 5,275,300 8,624,300 14,786,300 23,269,800 33,185,800 Forecasts
  • 12. Mobile broadband summary South Africa leads Africa’s mobile broadband market Top African mobile broadband operators, 4Q11 Africa’s mobile broadband subscriptions 4Q10-4Q11 Subscriptions (thousands) 18,000 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 16,000 Subscriptions (thousands) Vodacom South Africa 14,000 12,000 MTN South Africa 10,000 MTN Nigeria 8,000 6,000 Globacom Nigeria 4,000 2,000 Wana Morocco 0 Safaricom Kenya 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 Etisalat Egypt Top mobile broadband markets, 4Q11 Médi Télécom Morocco 8,000 Subscriptions (thousands) 7,000 Ittissalat Al-Maghrib 6,000 Unitel Angola 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 Note: Mobile broadband subscriptions refer to the 1,000 number of active subscriptions used in a device enabled for HSPA, EV-DO, or EV-DO Rev A 0 covering all device types (data-cards, USB Kenya Ghana Namibia Nigeria South Africa Egypt Botswana Angola Réunion Morocco modems, embedded notebooks and handsets). http://www.informatm.com/itmgcontent/icoms/reports/3000004726.xls
  • 13. Data market Africa sees 13.5% y-o-y growth in data revenues in 4Q11 Data revenues by operator, 3Q11 400 350  Africa continues to register growth in data revenues as operators shift their focus to mobile data as the key Data revenues (US$ m) 300 revenue driver amid dwindling voice service revenues. In 250 4Q11, total data revenues amounted to over US$1.4 billion representing a 13.5% increase over 4Q10. 200 150  South Africa lead the Africa’s data market in 4Q11 100 generating a total of US$612.46 million. However, 50 Starcomms Nigeria posted the highest data revenue (40%) as a percentage of total revenue over the quarter. 0 Vodacom MTN SA Safaricom MTN Ittissalat Unitel Libyana Orascom ECMS Vodafone SA Nigeria Al-Maghrib Angola Algeria Egypt Egypt  The growth in data revenues is largely attributed to the adoption of 3G+ networks by more operators in the region as well as aggressive marketing campaigns for data products. In 2H11, 13 operators launched 3G Data revenues as a percentage of service revenues by operator, services to their customers. 3Q11 45%  As of 2Q12, Africa has seen three commercial LTE 40% network launches. Angola’s Movicel became the first 40% Data revenues (%) 35% operator to launch LTE services in Africa. It was followed closely Namibia’s MTC and Mauritius’s Emcel. 30% 25% 28% 20% 22% 22% 21% 15% 10% 14% 13% 13% 13% 12% 5% 0% Starcomms Safaricom Vodacom MTC MTN SA Airtel Unitel Vodacom Vodacom Tigo TZ SA Namibia Zambia Angola TZ Lesotho World Cellular Data Metrics
  • 14. Data usage summary Non-SMS data has become the main data revenues contributor in key markets Top 10 operators by non-SMS data revenues as  Africa continues to register growth in non-SMS data segment. In 3Q11, the % of total data revenues, 3Q11 contribution of non-SMS data to total data revenues in Africa remained way beyond 50% as demand for mobile Internet increase. 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0  The availability of low-cost smartphones has increased adoption in the MTN South Africa 61.9% continent. Informa Telecoms & Media forecasts a penetration of 11% by 2016. Vodacom South Africa 61.9% MTN Ghana 50.0% Smartphone connections forecast – Africa, 2012 - 2016 MTN Nigeria 50.0% Smartphone connections Smartphones penetration rate Safaricom Kenya 46.0% 80 10.00% Millions Globacom Nigeria 46.0% 60 7.50% Airtel Nigeria 43.0% 40 5.00% MTC Namibia 34.0% 20 2.50% Airtel Kenya 28.7% - 0.00% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Airtel Zambia 20.0% World Cellular Data Metrics
  • 15. Operator performance indicators Increased competition in Africa sees a decline in operator’s blended ARPU Average blended ARPU by country, 4Q10-4Q11 35.00 Angola South Africa 30.00 Cape Verde 25.00 Botswana Mauritius ARPU (US$) 20.00 Tunisia 15.00 Morocco Swaziland 10.00 Gabon Equitorial 5.00 Guinea Congo 0.00 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 http://www.wcisplus.com/xls/GlobalARPU.xls Highest ARPU by operator, 4Q11 Lowest ARPU by operator, 4Q11 Blended Blended Country Operator Country Operator ARPU (US$) ARPU (US$) Reunion SFR Reunion 40.00 Benin Etisalat Benin 3.40 Cape Verde Cabo Verde Telecom 31.52 Rwanda Tigo Rwanda 3.31 Mauritius Mahanagar Telephone Mauritius 28.50 Madagascar Orange Madagascar 3.04 Equitorial Guinea Getesa 28.00 Ghana Kasapa 2.74 Reunion Outremer Telecom Reunion 24.50 Benin Bell Benin Communications 2.40 Angola Unitel Angola 23.00 Burundi Onatel Burundi 2.20 Libya Libyana 23.00 Guinea Republic Sotelgul 1.35 KPI's
  • 16. Key Outlook  According to Informa Telecoms & Media forecast, African will have 1.12 billion subscriptions by end-2017 up from 649.7 million in end-2011, representing a 72.3% increase.  Africa’s mobile broadband market continues to be dominated by 3G+ connections. This is expected to be the case in the near future despite the great interest in LTE by operators in the region.  The data market is expected to grow in double digits in the region as competition among operators intensifies. The availability of low-cost smartphones such as Huawei Ideos and Samsung Galaxy Pocket will also see a surge in data usage.  More operators in the region continue to adopt mobile money transfer services as key revenue channels. However, the service has evolved from a mere P2P to more integrated mobile financial service that will require necessary security measures to prevent fraud.  Telecom regulators in the region continue to outline various measures to ensure quality of service provision by operators. Nigeria, Ghana and Uganda are a few markets where operators have been served with hefty penalties for poor quality of service. This is expected to spread in other markets and will force operators to invest heavily in improving the quality of services they provide to their customers  The commercial launch of LTE services by Movicel, MTC and Emcel is expected to lead the way for other operators in Africa. Several operators in Africa have already completed LTE trials and are only awaiting spectrum auctions for them to roll out the networks .