2. Africa Highlights
By end 4Q11, Africa’s mobile subscriptions reached at 645.98 million translating to a penetration of
60.45% and a year-on-year growth of 19.12%.
Nigeria maintained the market lead in the African continent with 95.22 million mobile subscribers and a
penetration of 58.22% in 4Q11.
MTN Nigeria continues to be Africa’s biggest operator with 41.64 million mobile subscribers as of 4Q11.
Ethiopia to have a CAGR of 17.1% by 2017, the highest in the region.
Africa’s mobile broadband subscriptions reached 15.4 million in 4Q11 with South Africa leading with 7
million. Vodacom South Africa remained the top African mobile broadband operator in 4Q11 with 3.5
million subscribers
HSPA to dominate Africa’s mobile subscription by 2017 representing 74.2% of the total.
Africa see three commercial LTE network launches
3. Mobile subscription data
Increased growth rate in 2H11 see the region’s penetration rate surpass 60%
African subscriptions vs quarterly growth Share of African subscriptions, 4Q11
Subscriptions (mn) Quarterly growth (%)
660 7.00% Nigeria
15% Egypt
Subscriptions (millions)
640
6.00% 12%
620
5.00%
Growth (%)
600
580 4.00% South Africa
Others 9%
560 3.00% 48%
540
2.00%
520
1.00%
500
480 0.00% Morocco
4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 7%
African Summary 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 Kenya Algeria
4% 6%
Subscriptions (m) 542,5 566,6 589,5 616,3 645,5
Net adds (m) 29,2
31,1 24,2 22,9 26,8 Share of African net additions, 4Q11
Quarterly growth (%) Egypt
6,09 4,45 4,05 4,54 4,74 13%
Penetration (%) Others
51,93 53,93 55,80 58,00 60,41 44%
Ethiopia
13%
Quarterly net additions comparison 4Q10 and 4Q11
Subscription net additions
6,000
5,000
Nigeria
Thousands
4,000 11%
4Q10
3,000 Sudan
4Q11 7%
2,000
1,000 Uganda South Africa
4% 6%
0
Egypt Egypt Mali Ethiopia Morocco Uganda
Subscriptions
4. Country Focus: Nigeria
Nigeria recovers from negative growth brought about by SIM card registration in 1H11
Subscriptions (million) Quarterly Growth (%)
100 10
Subscriptions (million)
80
Growth (%)
5
Share of Nigerian subscriptions, 4Q11
60 Etisalat Airtel
11% 19%
40
0 Rest
5%
20
0 -5 Glo Mobile
4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 21%
By end 4Q11, Nigeria had a total of 95.22 million mobile subscribers and
MTN
a total penetration of 58.22%. The country experienced a positive growth 44%
rate of 3.44% as operators recover from the negative growth rates
brought about by SIM card registration in 1H11.
Share of Nigerian net additions, 4Q11
Airtel
Increased competition in 2H11 saw MTN lose its market share from 45.2% 36%
in 2Q11 to 44% in 4Q11. However, it continued to maintain the market lead
with over 41 million subscribers Glo Mobile
1%
MTN
Etisalat registered the highest number of new subscribers in 4Q11, 14%
amounting to 1.87 million and representing 49% of the total net
additions over the quarter.
Etisalat
49%
5. Country Focus: Egypt
Egypt sees increased mobile penetration in 2H11
Egypt subscription and quarterly growth, 4Q10-4Q11 By the end of 4Q11, Egypt had 80.82 million mobile
subscribers representing a penetration of 93.26%. The
Subscriptions Quarterly growth (%)
100 10 year on-year growth rate for the quarter stood at 18.32%
compared with 23.4% in 4Q10.
8
Subscriptions (m)
6
Growth (%)
Vodafone maintained the market lead in 4Q11 with 44%
80
market share and 36.36 million subscribers. Total net
4
additions for the quarter stood at 3.74 million
2
60 0
4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11
Share of Egypt subscriptions, 4Q11
Share Egypt net additions, 4Q11
ECMS
Vodafone ECMS 1%
44% 36%
Vodafone
Egypt
64%
Etisalat
17%
Etisalat
35%
6. Country Focus: South Africa
South Africa records positive growth in 2H11
Share of South Africa subscriptions, 4Q11
South Africa subscription and quarterly growth, 4Q10-4Q11
Subscriptions Quarterly growth (%)
8ta
60 8
2%
Vodacom
7 44%
50
Subscriptions (m)
6 Cell C
40 16%
5
Growth (%)
30 4
3
20
2
10
1
MTN
0 0 38%
4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11
Share of South Africa net additions, 4Q11
8ta Vodacom
15% 16%
At the end of 4Q11, South Africa had 58.24 million mobile subscribers
representing a penetration of 114.53%. The quarterly growth rate stood at
3.43% compared to 0.55% in 2Q11.
Cell C
Vodacom maintained the market leader position with 44% market share 14%
and 25.35 million subscribers. However, it is closely followed by MTN with
22.03 million subscriber.
MTN
55%
MTN registered the highest net additions for the quarter amounting to 1.07
million. This represented 55% of the total net additions in 4Q11
8. Top 20 markets by % growth in the year to end 4Q11
* Markets with more than 4 million subscriptions
9. Subscription forecasts, 2012-2017
Ethiopia to record highest CAGR growth by 2017
Africa by CAGR, 2012-2017 (countries with subs +10 million)
18
16
14
12
CAGR (%)
10
8
6
4
2
0
Uganda
Cameroon
Ghana
Nigeria
Kenya
Mali
Rep of Congo
Sudan
Côte d'Ivoire
Tanzania
Egypt
Morocco
Senegal
Ethiopia
Democratic
Africa top ten net addition 2012-2017 Africa Subscription Forecast 2012-2017
14
1,200
12
Subscriptions (millions)
10 1,000
8 800
Millions
6
600
4
400
2
0 200
0
2012 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Nigeria Egypt South Africa Algeria Morocco Rest
2017
Forecasts
10. 3G/4G trends
Africa’s mobile data segment grows as more operators launch 3G+ networks
Network deployments 2H11
Africa 3G/4G subscriptions forecast by technology
700
Start date Country Operator Technology
600
3Q11 Burundi Econet W-CDMA-2100
Subscriptions (millions)
500
3Q11 Ghana Tigo W-CDMA-2100
400
3Q11 Kenya Orange W-CDMA-2100
300
Sierra
3Q11 Africell W-CDMA-2100
Leone
200
3Q11 Tunisia Tunisie Telecom W-CDMA-2100
100
3Q11 Nigeria Etisalat W-CDMA-2100
0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 4Q11 Burundi UCom W-CDMA-2100
W-CDMA 1xEV-DO HSPA LTE 4Q11 Congo Bharti Airtel W-CDMA-2100
3G subscriptions by country, 4Q10 vs 4Q11
14.0 WiMAX-Mobile-
4Q11 Nigeria Spectranet
2300
12.0
Subscriptions (millions)
10.0 4Q11 Swaziland MTN W-CDMA-2100
8.0 W-CDMA-2100
4Q11 Uganda Warid
6.0
4Q11 Mauritius Mahanagar Telephone GSM-900
4.0
W-CDMA-2100
4Q11 Cape Verde T+
2.0
0.0 Guinea W-CDMA-2100
4Q11 Orange Guinee
South Africa Egypt Nigeria Kenya Morocco Zimbabwe Tunisia Tanzania Angola Ethiopia Republic
W-CDMA-900
4Q10 4Q11 4Q11 Togo TogoCel
3G defined as W-CDMA, HSPA, EV-DO and EV-DO Rev A
3G/HSPA subscriptions
Network launches
11. Technology forecast, 2012-2017
HSPA to dominate Africa’s mobile subscriptions by 2017
Africa Country share of HSPA subscriptions, 2012
Africa subscription forecast by technology Others
25%
1,400
South Africa
Kenya 40%
1,200 7%
Morocco
6%
Subscriptions (millions)
1,000
Egypt
800 7%
Nigeria
15%
600
Africa Country share of HSPA subscriptions, 2017
400
South Africa
200 13% Nigeria
11%
0 Egypt
Others 11%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 52%
2G and 2.5G(GSM, GPRS, EDGE, 1xRTT) 3G (WCDMA, EV-DO) Morocco
6%
3.5G (HSPA, EV-DO Rev. A) 4G (LTE)
Kenya
7%
Forecast for 3G
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Split
WCDMA-only 40,714,700 54,829,100 70,211,100 85,961,900 99,306,600 108,669,800
HSPA 36,977,300 68,373,700 118,733,100 191,638,000 289,757,000 408,749,000
1x EV-DO 3,478,600 5,275,300 8,624,300 14,786,300 23,269,800 33,185,800
Forecasts
12. Mobile broadband summary
South Africa leads Africa’s mobile broadband market
Top African mobile broadband operators, 4Q11
Africa’s mobile broadband subscriptions 4Q10-4Q11
Subscriptions (thousands)
18,000
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500
16,000
Subscriptions (thousands)
Vodacom South Africa
14,000
12,000 MTN South Africa
10,000
MTN Nigeria
8,000
6,000
Globacom Nigeria
4,000
2,000 Wana Morocco
0
Safaricom Kenya
4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11
Etisalat Egypt
Top mobile broadband markets, 4Q11
Médi Télécom Morocco
8,000
Subscriptions (thousands)
7,000 Ittissalat Al-Maghrib
6,000
Unitel Angola
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000 Note: Mobile broadband subscriptions refer to the
1,000 number of active subscriptions used in a device
enabled for HSPA, EV-DO, or EV-DO Rev A
0
covering all device types (data-cards, USB
Kenya
Ghana
Namibia
Nigeria
South Africa
Egypt
Botswana
Angola
Réunion
Morocco
modems, embedded notebooks and handsets).
http://www.informatm.com/itmgcontent/icoms/reports/3000004726.xls
13. Data market
Africa sees 13.5% y-o-y growth in data revenues in 4Q11
Data revenues by operator, 3Q11
400
350
Africa continues to register growth in data revenues as
operators shift their focus to mobile data as the key
Data revenues (US$ m)
300 revenue driver amid dwindling voice service revenues. In
250 4Q11, total data revenues amounted to over US$1.4
billion representing a 13.5% increase over 4Q10.
200
150
South Africa lead the Africa’s data market in 4Q11
100 generating a total of US$612.46 million. However,
50 Starcomms Nigeria posted the highest data revenue
(40%) as a percentage of total revenue over the quarter.
0
Vodacom MTN SA Safaricom MTN Ittissalat Unitel Libyana Orascom ECMS Vodafone
SA Nigeria Al-Maghrib Angola Algeria Egypt Egypt
The growth in data revenues is largely attributed to the
adoption of 3G+ networks by more operators in the
region as well as aggressive marketing campaigns for
data products. In 2H11, 13 operators launched 3G
Data revenues as a percentage of service revenues by operator,
services to their customers.
3Q11
45%
As of 2Q12, Africa has seen three commercial LTE
40% network launches. Angola’s Movicel became the first
40%
Data revenues (%)
35% operator to launch LTE services in Africa. It was followed
closely Namibia’s MTC and Mauritius’s Emcel.
30%
25% 28%
20% 22% 22% 21%
15%
10% 14% 13% 13% 13% 12%
5%
0%
Starcomms Safaricom Vodacom MTC MTN SA Airtel Unitel Vodacom Vodacom Tigo TZ
SA Namibia Zambia Angola TZ Lesotho
World Cellular Data Metrics
14. Data usage summary
Non-SMS data has become the main data revenues contributor in key markets
Top 10 operators by non-SMS data revenues as
Africa continues to register growth in non-SMS data segment. In 3Q11, the
% of total data revenues, 3Q11
contribution of non-SMS data to total data revenues in Africa remained way
beyond 50% as demand for mobile Internet increase.
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0
The availability of low-cost smartphones has increased adoption in the
MTN South Africa 61.9% continent. Informa Telecoms & Media forecasts a penetration of 11% by
2016.
Vodacom South Africa 61.9%
MTN Ghana 50.0%
Smartphone connections forecast – Africa, 2012 - 2016
MTN Nigeria 50.0%
Smartphone connections Smartphones penetration rate
Safaricom Kenya 46.0%
80 10.00%
Millions
Globacom Nigeria 46.0%
60 7.50%
Airtel Nigeria 43.0%
40 5.00%
MTC Namibia 34.0%
20 2.50%
Airtel Kenya 28.7%
- 0.00%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Airtel Zambia 20.0%
World Cellular Data Metrics
15. Operator performance indicators
Increased competition in Africa sees a decline in operator’s blended ARPU
Average blended ARPU by country, 4Q10-4Q11
35.00 Angola
South Africa
30.00
Cape Verde
25.00 Botswana
Mauritius
ARPU (US$)
20.00
Tunisia
15.00 Morocco
Swaziland
10.00 Gabon
Equitorial
5.00 Guinea
Congo
0.00
4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11
http://www.wcisplus.com/xls/GlobalARPU.xls
Highest ARPU by operator, 4Q11 Lowest ARPU by operator, 4Q11
Blended Blended
Country Operator Country Operator
ARPU (US$) ARPU (US$)
Reunion SFR Reunion 40.00 Benin Etisalat Benin 3.40
Cape Verde Cabo Verde Telecom 31.52 Rwanda Tigo Rwanda 3.31
Mauritius Mahanagar Telephone Mauritius 28.50 Madagascar Orange Madagascar 3.04
Equitorial Guinea Getesa 28.00 Ghana Kasapa 2.74
Reunion Outremer Telecom Reunion 24.50 Benin Bell Benin Communications 2.40
Angola Unitel Angola 23.00 Burundi Onatel Burundi 2.20
Libya Libyana 23.00 Guinea Republic Sotelgul 1.35
KPI's
16. Key Outlook
According to Informa Telecoms & Media forecast, African will have 1.12 billion subscriptions by end-2017 up from
649.7 million in end-2011, representing a 72.3% increase.
Africa’s mobile broadband market continues to be dominated by 3G+ connections. This is expected to be the case in
the near future despite the great interest in LTE by operators in the region.
The data market is expected to grow in double digits in the region as competition among operators intensifies. The
availability of low-cost smartphones such as Huawei Ideos and Samsung Galaxy Pocket will also see a surge in data
usage.
More operators in the region continue to adopt mobile money transfer services as key revenue channels. However,
the service has evolved from a mere P2P to more integrated mobile financial service that will require necessary
security measures to prevent fraud.
Telecom regulators in the region continue to outline various measures to ensure quality of service provision by
operators. Nigeria, Ghana and Uganda are a few markets where operators have been served with hefty penalties
for poor quality of service. This is expected to spread in other markets and will force operators to invest heavily in
improving the quality of services they provide to their customers
The commercial launch of LTE services by Movicel, MTC and Emcel is expected to lead the way for other operators
in Africa. Several operators in Africa have already completed LTE trials and are only awaiting spectrum auctions for
them to roll out the networks .