Presentatie op congres jeugdwerkloosheid van de Koninklijke Vlaamse Academie van Belgie. Thema's: basiskwalificatie voor iedereen, meer hooggeschoolden, betere trajecten in beroepsopleiding en

1. ONDERWIJS EN
JEUGDWERKLOOSHEID
Dirk Van Damme, Head of the Innovation and Measuring
Progress Division, Directorate for Education and Skills,
OECD

2. Youth unemployment rate (as % of youth
labour force), 15-24 year-olds
60
Austria
Belgium
50
Denmark
France
Germany
40
Greece
Hungary
Ireland
30
Italy
Netherlands
Portugal
20
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
10
United Kingdom
OECD-Total
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2

3. Luxembourg
Poland
Hungary
Czech Republic
Germany
Slovak Republic
Finland
Iceland
Estonia
Belgium
France
Greece
Sweden
Netherlands
Denmark
Korea
Switzerland
Ireland
Austria
Portugal
OECD average
Italy
Spain
Norway
United Kingdom
Inactivity among very young youth
Percentage of 15-19 year-old NEET (2011)
Not in education and unemployed
Not in education and not in the labour force
Not in education (Total)
20
18
16
14
12
%
10
8
6
4
2
0
3

4. Some key data for Belgium (2011-2012)
• Of 15-29 year-olds are
– 47% in education
– 53% not in education
• 39.1% employed
• 13.9% not in employment
– 7.8% not in the labour force
– 6.1% unemployed
» 2.9% more than 6 months
» 3.2% less than 6 months
4

5. STRATEGIC OBJECTIVE 1:
MAKE SURE ALL YOUTH
HAVE A BASIC
QUALIFICATION
5

6. Employment rate by educational attainment,
2005-11, 25-34 year-olds
Belgium below upper sec
Belgium upper secondary
Belgium tertiary
OECD av below secondary
OECD av upper secondary
OECD av tertiary
EU21 av below upper secondary
EU21 av upper secondary
EU21 av tertiary
100
25-34 year-olds
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
6

7. Employment rate by educational attainment,
2005-11, 45-54 year-olds
Belgium below upper sec
Belgium upper secondary
Belgium tertiary
OECD av below secondary
OECD av upper secondary
OECD av tertiary
EU21 av below upper secondary
EU21 av upper secondary
EU21 av tertiary
100
45-54 year-olds
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
7

8. Employment rate gap for 25-34 y-olds with
less than upper sec, 2005-11
Belgium difference in employment rates upper sec minus below secondary
OECD difference in employment rates upper sec minus below secondary
EU21 difference in employment rates upper sec minus below secondary
30
25-34 year-olds
25
20
15
10
5
n
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
8

9. 9

10. STRATEGIC OBJECTIVE 2:
ENSURE HIGHER LEVELS
OF TERTIARY ATTAINMENT
10

11. Evolution of employment in occupational
groups defined by level of education
Percent
Percentage change in the share of employment relative to 1998, by occupational groups defined by
workers’ average level of education
25
Occupations with high educated workers
20
15
Occupations with medium educated workers
Occupations with low-educated workers
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
11

12. Italy
Austria
Czech Republic
Slovak Republic
Portugal
Germany
Hungary
Greece
Slovenia
Denmark
OECD average
25-34 year-olds
Estonia
Spain
Poland
Iceland
70
Finland
%
Netherlands
Switzerland
Belgium
Sweden
France
Luxembourg
Norway
United Kingdom
Ireland
Tertiary attainment rate (2011)
25-64 year-olds
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
12

13. Finland
United States
Belgium
Netherlands
Japan
Denmark
Austria
France
United Kingdom
Canada
Mexico
Greece
Hungary
Overall population growth
Czech Republic
OECD average
Switzerland
Australia
New Zealand
Slovak Republic
Italy
Iceland
%
8
Korea
Luxembourg
Portugal
Poland
Spain
Turkey
Ireland
Annual growth rate in tertiary educational
attainment rate (1998-2008)
Attainment rate growth
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1

14. 0
Italy
Netherlands
Flanders (Belgium)
Cyprus¹ ²
Poland
Finland
Slovak Republic
Denmark
Sweden
United States
Norway
Czech Republic
Austria
Korea
Average
Spain
Germany
Estonia
Canada
Ireland
Australia
England/N.…
Japan
Risk of over-qualification?
Percentage of workers whose highest qualification is higher than the
qualification they deem necessary to get their job today (PIAAC, 2011)
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
14

15. Flemish youth is not more or less
overqualified than older workers
4
Adjusted odds ratio showing the likelihood of over-qualification by age group
45-54 year olds
United States
Sweden
Spain
Slovak Republic
Poland
Norway
Netherlands
Italy
Ireland
Germany
Flanders (Belgium)
Finland
Estonia
England/N. Ireland (UK)
Denmark
Czech Republic
Austria
0
1
2
3
16-24 year olds
15

16. STRATEGIC OBJECTIVE 3:
PROVIDE HIGHER QUALITY
AND MORE RELEVANT
EDUCATIONAL TRAJECTORIES
16

17. Employment rate 25-34 & 35-44 years-old, upper
secondary attainment, by programme orientation
General Vocational
Total
General Vocational
25-34
Total
35-44
Belgium
69.24
83.01
79.44
80.31
85.38
84.12
Netherlands
75.98
88.13
85.75
83.24
87.29
86.33
Germany
53.25
84.27
80.33
73.35
85.89
85.65
France
75.15
79.17
77.87
83.19
85.29
84.70
OECD average
69.03
79.18
75.57
78.28
83.57
81.23
EU21 average
67.79
78.17
76.28
78.45
83.03
82.41
17

18. %
Countries where expenditure in VET programmes is above the OECD average
Countries where expenditure in VET programmes is below the OECD average
OECD average
Percentage of 25-34 year-olds that have attained an upper secondary
VET qualification as highest level of education
100
90
80
Czech Republic
Slovak Republic
70
Austria
Germany
60
Luxembourg
50
Switzerland
Poland
40
Finland
OECD average
30
Estonia
France
New Zealand
20
Netherlands
Sweden
Hungary
Turkey
10
n
65
70
75
80
85
Employment rates for 25-34 year-olds with upper secondary VET qualifications
90 18
%

19. STRATEGIC OBJECTIVE 4:
VALUE SKILLS MORE THAN
QUALIFICATIONS
19

20. Youth unemployment and skills are linked
305
Japan
Literacy proficiency 16-24 year-olds (PIAAC) (2011)
300
Finland
295
Korea
Netherlands
290
Estonia
285
Australia
280
Average
Austria
Denmark
Canada
Norway
Germany
275
Belgium
Sweden
Poland
Czech Republic
United States
270
Japan
France
Germany
United Kingdom
265
Spain
Italy
260
255
0
10
20
30
40
Youth unemployment rate 15-24 year-olds (2012)
50
60
20

21. Flanders (Belgium)
Finland
Canada
Cyprus¹ ²
Korea
Denmark
Norway
Estonia
Sweden
Spain
Primary education or less
Netherlands
United States
Ireland
Average
Poland
Australia
England/N. Ireland (UK)
Germany
Japan
Slovak Republic
Czech Republic
Italy
Austria
Percentage workers in high-skilled and
unskilled jobs
Tertiary education or more
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
10
20
30
21

22. Likelihood of positive social and economic
outcomes among highly literate adults
(scoring at Level 4/5 compared with those scoring at Level 1 or below)
Average
Germany
England (UK)
Flanders (Belgium)
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
Odds ratio Good to
excellent
health
Being
Employed
High levels of Participation in High levels of
trust
volunteer
political
activities
efficacy
High wages
22

23. 23

24. Young age is critical in skills
development
310
300
Literacy
unadjusted
Numeracy
unadjusted
290
280
270
Literacy
adjusted
Numeracy
adjusted
Level 2
260
250
240
15
20
25
30
35
40
Age
45
50
55
60
65
24

25. Dank!
dirk.vandamme@oecd.org
www.oecd.org/edu/ceri
twitter @VanDammeEDU
25