1. David Tennant, PE, PMP
770-846-0828
Biomass Power Technical Seminar
Georgia Institute of Technology
Atlanta, Georgia
March 11 – 13, 2010
2. Agenda
• Worldwide Energy Use
• Population Growth and Energy Demand
• The Implications
• Policy Approach
• Conclusions
3. The Tipping Point?
Energy worldwide is going through
fundamental, structural changes.
Driving this are increased demand,
environmental concerns, new
technologies, and tax incentives for
renewable energy development.
4. Lets Consider a Few Questions
1. What are the energy impacts of increasing world
population?
2. What role should “alternative” energy play?
3. What are the short- and long-term implications
for the USA?
5. Energy and Our Standard of Living
In North America, we have had a stable and inexpensive source of
energy for the past 50 years. This includes both petroleum and
electricity.
This has led to our high standard of living: the use of cars, freedom of
movement, heating and cooling our homes, and the convenience of
our electronic devices such as computers, flat screen TVs, etc.
The world population is increasing and everyone else wants our
standard of living too.
What are the implications?
7. The world population
increased from 3
billion in 1959 to 6
billion by 1999, a
doubling that
occurred over 40
years.
The world population
is projected to grow
from 6 billion in 1999
to 9 billion by 2045,
an increase of 50
percent that is
expected to require 46
years.
13. Interesting Facts
• In 2007, China was commissioning two coal-fired power plants
every week
• At current worldwide MW consumption, there is enough coal to
last 150 years. The US exports approx 100-mm tons of coal/yr.
• With 5% annual growth, the coal will last 50 years
• China already uses more coal than the United States, the
European Union and Japan combined. It has increased coal
consumption 14 percent in each of the past two years.
14.
15. The Implications
The worldwide demand for oil will grow by 30 to 50 percent
over the next two decades. What if demand outstrips supply?
Wind and solar energy are not alternatives to fossil fuels;
but should be considered supplements. However,
biomass as a viable fuel source has a strong future.
Electric cars may be “the future” and may decrease
petroleum demand. However, they will increase electric
demand.
16. The Implications
There are not any near-term alternatives to oil, gas, and coal.
These fuel sources will be around for decades into the future.
Politics can only do so much to stimulate alternative energy
development. In the end, it boils down to the laws of
thermodynamics and economics.
The US has invested trillions of dollars in power plants,
distribution, pipelines, etc. Changing this system to an
alternative-energy based scheme will require not only new
investment and decades of time; but new breakthroughs in
energy technology.
17. The Reality
• If passed, it is estimated that the “Cap & Trade” bill will
increase electric rates by 20 %.
• The average person has very little knowledge of what is
involved with energy production and distribution; its
technical limits or costs.
• We desire a cheap and plentiful supply of energy for our
convenience, but do not want to build new nuclear or coal
power plants, drill off-shore, or construct new refineries.
Each of these production facilities would take about 8 to 10
years to design and construct.
Can you say NIMBY?
18. The Reality
- Continued -
• The OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development)
consists primarily of the industrialized nations. By 2050, it is
projected that 70% of CO2 emissions will be emitted by non-
OECD countries, most notably China and India.
• Solar and wind energy make up less than 3% of our energy
mix. The marketplace has made this determination based on
costs and availability.
• Renewables currently provide about 4 % of our electric
generation.
19. Comparing Technology Load Factors
First, load factor is the percentage of hours that a
power plant operates at maximum capacity. For
example, a 1,000 MW plant that runs at 98% LF means
that this plant produces 1,000 MW for 98% of the
hours in a year.
Base load plants typically run higher than 90% and
some as high as 98%. Hydro plants can fall into this
category if they are large and the river flow is constant.
20. Comparing Technology Load Factors
Base-load plants are the most efficient and will generate
power around the clock.
Intermediate plants are the next most efficient and include
medium size coal-fired plants, say around 100 to 300 MW.
Peaking plants are the most expensive to run, but are used
when the demand for power is high: during summer months
and the middle of the day (8 am to 5 pm). This consists of
combustion turbines and less efficient fossil-fueled plants.
21. Comparing Technology Load Factors and Costs
Base-load Plants L.F. (USA) Capital Cost per kW
Nuclear Plants (1,000 MW) Ave 92% $2,000
Large Coal-fired Plants (500+ MW) Above 90% $1,500
Large Hydro Plants (500 MW+) 75% $1,500
Biomass (<100 MW) 70 to 85% $1,500 to $2,500
Geothermal 90% $2,000 to $2,500
Intermediate Load Plants
Coal-fired plants (100 to 300 MW) 25 to 60% N/A
Hydro 50 to 100 44% $4,000
Combined Cycle 60 to 90% $1,500
Peak Load Generation
Gas Turbine A/R $900 to $1,100
Wind (land-based) 30% $1,200 to $2,200
Solar - Thermal 20% $3,150
Solar - PV 30 to 40% $4,000
22. Traditional Energy Generation-
Worldwide
Electric Utilities: Other:
(paper/developers)
• Coal
• Nuclear • Coal
• Hydro • Woody biomass
• Gas • Gas
• Oil • Geothermal
• Geothermal • WTE
25. What is a Reasonable Approach?
Utilities
1. It is likely that Utilities will take the lead in alternative energy
production. For example, biomass power generation and
wind energy. They have the necessary financial resources.
2. Utilities can convert older, less efficient coal-fired plants to
biomass much more easily, and cheaply, than others building
new green field sites.
26. What is a Reasonable Approach?
Utilities
3. Utilities maintain and sometimes operate the “grid.” Wind
farms will need to tap into the grid to distribute power. Several
utilities have already made significant investments in wind
power. (Note FPL and Duke Energy)
4. Streamline the licensing process for new development and
construction of nuclear power plants. Nuclear plants do not
emit any GHGs.
27. What is a Reasonable Approach?
Government
5. The private sector will generate new technologies and
innovative solutions. But only Government can provide the
massive funding needed to encourage new product innovation
and alternative energy implementation.
6. There should be continued R&D into alternative fuels for
transportation (cars, trucks, and jets) and clean coal
technologies.
7. Solar PV fields are coming down in cost. Funding for R&D
can be supported by government grants and by research at
DOE labs.
28. What is a Reasonable Approach?
Regulatory
8. There will not be any reduction in GHGs with unilateral
reductions only by the OECD countries. India, China, and other
developing nations also need to be included in any proposed
reductions.
9. New regulations, if any, should be based on sound science.
Further, regulatory agencies need to provide clear and
unambiguous policy.
29. What is a Reasonable Approach?
Industry
10. There will be opportunities to make money. Companies and the
free market will determine how to produce and distribute energy
in the most cost-effective manner.
11. Current equity markets are pretty dry. Funding must come from
existing deep pockets (the Exxon-Mobil’s of the world) or
government. This is a capital intensive industry.
30. Conclusions
1. All forms of energy production will be needed in the years to
come. It is unrealistic to believe that alternative energies can
displace current fossil fuels.
2. The demand for energy will require the use of all available
technologies and fuels to provide a continued stable source of
energy: nuclear, coal, biomass, solar, wind, hydro, etc. etc.
3. The increasing world population will drive the demand, and
costs, of energy higher as the developing nations meet their
energy needs.
31. Conclusions
4. A partnership between industry and government will be needed
to meet the nation’s energy needs.
5. The free market will determine which technologies will succeed.
Biomass energy has a definite role to play in power production.
6. When comparing power-generation technologies, it is appropriate
to note the load factor in comparing the economics.
7. Utilities can (and will) play an active role in generating and
distributing electricity from alternative energy.
