Nicola Mining Inc. Corporate Presentation May 2024
Q3 2009 Earning Report of The Mosaic Company
1. Mosaic’s 1st Quarter Fiscal 2010
Earnings and Conference Call
Tuesday, October 6, 2009 Jim Prokopanko, President and CEO
Dr. Mike Rahm, VP Market Analysis & Strategic Planning
Christine Battist, Director - Investor Relations
2. Safe Harbor Statement
This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private
Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements include, but are not limited to,
statements about future financial and operating results. Such statements are based upon the
current beliefs and expectations of The Mosaic Company’s management and are subject to
significant risks and uncertainties. These risks and uncertainties include but are not limited to
the predictability and volatility of, and customer expectations about, agriculture, fertilizer, raw
material, energy and transportation markets that are subject to competitive and other
pressures and the effects of the current economic and financial turmoil; the build-up of
inventories in the distribution channels for crop nutrients; changes in foreign currency and
exchange rates; international trade risks; changes in government policy; changes in
environmental and other governmental regulation, including greenhouse gas regulation;
difficulties or delays in receiving, or increases costs of, necessary governmental permits or
approvals; the effectiveness of our processes for managing our strategic priorities; adverse
weather conditions affecting operations in Central Florida or the Gulf Coast of the United
States, including potential hurricanes or excess rainfall; actual costs of asset retirement,
environmental remediation, reclamation or other environmental regulation differing from
management’s current estimates; accidents and other disruptions involving Mosaic’s
operations, including brine inflows at its Esterhazy, Saskatchewan potash mine and other
potential mine fires, floods, explosions, seismic events or releases of hazardous or volatile
chemicals, as well as other risks and uncertainties reported from time to time in The Mosaic
Company’s reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Actual results may
differ from those set forth in the forward-looking statements.
Slide 2
4. Financial Results
Three Months Ended
08/31/09 08/31/08
(In millions, except per share amounts)
Net Sales $1,457.2 $4,322.5
Gross Margin $222.2 $1,648.6
(% o f net sales) 15% 38%
Net Earnings $100.6 $1,184.7
(% o f net sales) 7% 27%
Diluted EPS $0.23 $2.65
Effective Tax Rate 25% 31%
Cash Flow from Operations $172.4 $561.5
Cash and Cash Equivalents as of
August 31, 2009 & 2008 $2,598.7 $2,703.2
Slide 4
5. Financial Results by Segment
Three Months Ended
(in millions) 08/31/09 08/31/08
Potash
Net Sales $333.3 $976.4
Operating Earnings $99.3 $477.8
Phosphates
Net Sales $814.4 $2,592.8
Operating Earnings $61.2 $950.8
Offshore
Net Sales $468.1 $1,048.0
Operating Earnings (Loss) ($8.0) $159.0
Corporate/Other
Net Sales (Eliminations) ($158.6) ($294.7)
Operating Earnings (Loss) ($18.3) ($38.7)
Total
Net Sales $1,457.2 $4,322.5
Operating Earnings $134.2 $1,548.9
Slide 5
6. Financial Guidance
2nd Qtr FY 2010 FY 2010
Phosphate
Sales Volume 1.8 - 2.2 million tonnes
DAP Selling Price $265 - $305 / tonne
Capital Spending $1.0 billion - $1.2 billion
SG&A $350 - $370 million
Effective Tax Rate High 20% range
Note: Mosaic is not providing financial guidance on potash sales volumes or MOP selling price until market conditions stabilize
Slide 6
11. Global Economic Recovery Underway
World GDP Growth
7.0%
Source: IHS Global Insight
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
GDP Grow th 1990-2008 CAGR = 2.9% 2004-07 CAGR = 3.9%
-3.0%
70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10
Slide 11
12. Led by China and India
GDP Growth
Three Largest Asian Countries by Population
13%
Source: IHS Global Insight
12%
11%
10%
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
China India Indonesia
Slide 12
13. Continued Strong Grain and Oilseed Demand Growth
Bil Tonnes
World Grain and Oilseed Production and Use
2.8
Source: USDA and Mosaic (for 10/11 scenarios)
2.7
2.6
2.5
2.4
2.3
2.2
2.1
2.0
99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 10/11 10/11
Production Use L M H
Slide 13
14. Global Stocks Still Not Secure
Mil Tonnes Days Use
World Grain and Oilseed Stocks
650 120
Source: USDA and Mosaic (for 10/11 scenarios)
600 110
550 100
500 90
450 80
400 70
350 60
300 50
250 40
99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 10/11 10/11
Stocks Days of Use L M H
Slide 14
15. Futures Markets Agree
$ BU New Crop Corn Prices $ BU New Crop Soybean Prices
Daily Close of New Crop Options January 2, 2009 to September 30, 2009 Daily Close of New Crop Options January 2, 2009 to September 30, 2009
5.00 11.00
4.75 10.50
4.50 10.00
4.25 9.50
4.00 9.00
3.75 8.50
Source: CBOT Source: CBOT
3.50 8.00
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Dec 2010 Dec 2011 Dec 2012 Nov 2010 Nov 2011 Nov 2012
Slide 15
16. A Tale of Two Crops
Mil Tonnes Bil Tonnes
U.S. Grain and Oilseed Production and Use World less U.S. Grain and Oilseed Production and Use
550 2.20
Source: USDA Source: USDA
2.15
500
2.10
2.05
450
2.00
400 1.95
1.90
350
1.85
1.80
300
1.75
250 1.70
99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10
Production Use Production Use
Slide 16
17. China: The Challenge to Boost Crop Yields
Mil Tonnes
China Grain and Oilseed Production and Use Mil Tonnes China MOP Import Demand
510 10
Source: USDA Source: Fertecon and Mosaic
490 9
470
8
7
450
6
430
5
410
4
390 3
370 2
350 1
99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 0
Production Use
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09F
Slide 17
18. India: Full Steam Ahead for the Rabi Crop
Mil Tonnes
India Grain and Oilseed Production and Use $ Ha Return After Variable Cost
255 for an Indian Farm Operation
Source: USDA $1,200
245 Source: Mosaic India
$1,000
235
225
$800
215 $600
205 $400
195
$200
185
$0
175 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009F
99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10
Rice Wheat
Production Use
Slide 18
19. South America: A Poor 2009 Harvest
Argentina Grain and Oilseed Harvested Area and Yield Mil Tonnes
Mil Ha MT Ha Brazil Grain and Oilseed Production and Use
32 3.4 145
Source: USDA Source: USDA
135
30 3.2
125
28 3.0
115
26 2.8
105
24 2.6
95
22 2.4
85
20 2.2 75
99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10
Harvested Area Yield Production Use
Slide 19
20. South America: Decent Incentives for 2010 Crop
$ Ha Return After Variable Cost Return After Variable Cost
$ Ha
for an Argentina Farm Operation for a Brazilian Farm Operation
$600
Source: Mosaic Argentina
$600
Source: Mosaic Brazil
$500 $500
$400 $400
$300
$300
$200
$200
$100
$100 $0
$0 -$100
2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10F 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10F
Soybeans in Pergam ino Corn in South Santa Fe Wheat in East Buenos Aires Soybeans in Mato Grosso Corn in Parana Sugar Cane in São Paulo
Slide 20
21. We Expect a Strong Demand Recovery
Mil Tonnes World Processed Phosphate Import Demand Mil Tonnes World MOP Import Demand
(Excludes China) (Excludes the United States and Europe)
25 35
Source: Fertecon, IFA and Mosaic
Source: Fertecon and Mosaic
23
W Europe Asia Less China 30
20 Oceania L America Asia Latin America Other
Other 25
18
15
20
13
15
10
8 10
5
5
3
0 0
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08E 09F 10F 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08E 09F 10F
Slide 21
23. Mosaic Positioned for Demand Recovery
Global economic recovery underway
• GDP growth
• Led by China, India and Indonesia
• More income = more grain intensive
Positive outlook for agriculture
• Continued strong grain and oilseed demand growth
• Production challenges in key countries
Mosaic strategic plan underway
• Grow potash through expansions
• Maintain competitive position in phosphates
• Align distribution with production assets
Slide 23