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An overview presentation for

    Full Planet,
   Empty Plates:
The New Geopolitics of
    Food Scarcity
          A book by
      Lester R. Brown
An Era of Rising Food Prices

• 2007-08: Grain and soybean prices more than
  doubled, leading to food riots and unrest in some 60
  countries
• Prices eased somewhat with global recession
• 2010-11: Another price spike helped fuel the Arab Spring
• 2012: Prices again approaching or setting records
    Corn Futures Prices   Wheat Futures Prices   Soybean Futures Prices




                                                             Source: CME Group
Precarious Global Food Situation

World Grain Production and Consumption,
                                          • Dangerously small
               1960-2011                    margin between grain
                                            consumption and grain
                                            production


                                          • Now we face long-term
                                            trends that:
                                             – increase food
                                               demand
                                             – limit food production

  We are only one poor harvest away from chaos in
  world grain markets.
                                                        Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Tobias Helbig
Demand Growing, Supply Strained

Demand Side               Supply Side
• Growing population      • Eroding soils
• People moving up the    • Depleting aquifers
  food chain              • Plateauing grain
• Biofuels turning food     yields
  into fuel               • Rising temperature




                                      Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Tobias Helbig
From Surplus to Scarcity
World Grain Stocks as Days of   • In the past, world had
  Consumption, 1990-2012          two safety cushions in
                                  case of harvest shortfall:
                                   – idled U.S. cropland
                                   – large stocks of grain
                                • Now, we have lost those
                                  two safety cushions
                                   – U.S. abandoned cropland
                                     set aside programs
                                   – grain stocks have fallen
                                     dangerously low
                                                Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Tobias Helbig
Population Pressures
• 7 billion people on the    World Population, 1800-2010, with Projection to 2100

  planet
• Each year, nearly 80
  million people added
• Some 215 million
  women who want to
  plan their families lack
  access to family
  planning services
• Large families trap
  people in poverty
 We are fast outgrowing the earth’s capacity to sustain
 our increasing numbers.
                                                                  Photo Credit: Yann Arthus-Bertrand
System Overload
• Overfishing: 80% of oceanic fisheries are being
  fished at or beyond their sustainable yield

• Overgrazing: The global grazing livestock
  population grew by 1.2 billion animals since 1960

• Overcutting: The world’s forests lose a net 5.6
  million hectares—an area the size of Costa Rica—
  each year

• Overplowing: In parts of Africa, Asia, and the
  Middle East, productive cropland is turning into
  wasteland
• Overpumping: Half the world’s population lives in
  countries that are extracting groundwater from
  aquifers faster than it is replenished
                                           Photo Credit: USDA/ Stephen Ausmus; Yann Arthus-Bertrand
More Meat, More Feed
• World meat demand grew       World Meat Production by Type,
                                        1950-2010
  fivefold since 1950

• As incomes rise, some 3
  billion people in the
  developing world desire to
  eat more meat, milk, and
  eggs

• This requires more grain
  and soybeans for animal
  feed
                                              Photo Credit: USDA / Keith Weller
Feeding Cars Instead of People

 • U.S. corn is largest crop of  Corn Use for Feed and Fuel Ethanol
   any grain worldwide, critical   in the United States, 1980-2011

   to world supplies
 • Close to 1/3 of U.S. grain
   now going to ethanol
 • Grain used to fuel U.S. cars
   in 2011 could otherwise have
   fed 400 million people
 • U.S. ethanol euphoria
   beginning in 2005 helped
   raise food prices worldwide
The grain needed to fill an SUV’s 25-gallon tank with
ethanol once could feed one person for a year.
                                                       Photo Credit: USDA / Scott Bauer
Worsening Soil Erosion
• Overplowing, overgrazing, and deforestation make soil
  vulnerable to wind and water erosion

• Roughly 1/3 of the world’s cropland is now losing
  topsoil faster than it can be re-formed

• Topsoil loss reduces productivity, eventually leading
  farmers and herders to abandon their land

• Countries such as Lesotho, Haiti, Mongolia, and North
  Korea are losing the ability to feed themselves



                                              Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Steven Allan
Dust Bowls Today
• Now overgrazing in northwestern China and western
  Mongolia is leading to the merging of deserts and the
  formation of dust storms that sweep across the
  continent, sometimes even as far as North America

• Population and livestock pressure in the African Sahel
  has destroyed soils; dust storms carrying 2–3 billion
  tons of soil leave Africa each year


These two newer dust bowls dwarf anything the
world has seen before. We have yet to see their
full effects.
                                              Photo Credit: NASA Earth Observatory
Coming Water Shortages




             18 countries, 3.6 billion people         Source: EPI



• Overpumping produces food bubbles that burst when water supplies
  dry up
• 175 million people in India and 130 million people in China eat grain
  produced by overpumping
• In the Arab Middle East, a collision between population growth and
  water supply is reducing regional grain harvests
Saudi Arabia’s Bursting Bubble
• Saudi Arabia became
                              Wheat Production in Saudi Arabia, 1995-
  self-sufficient in wheat        2011, with Projection to 2016
  by tapping its non-
  replenishable aquifer to
  irrigate the desert
• In early 2008, the
  government announced
  the aquifer was largely
  depleted
• The population of
  nearly 30 million will be
  entirely dependent on
  imported grain by 2016

Saudi Arabia is the first country to publicly project how
aquifer depletion will shrink its grain harvest.
                                                                Photo Credit: NASA
Growth in Grain Yields Slowing
                              World Average Grain Yield, 1950-2011
• World average grain yield
  has tripled since 1950
• But the pace of growth is
  slowing
   – 1950-1990: It grew
     2.2% per year
   – 1990-2011: It grew
     1.3% per year

In some of the more agriculturally advanced
countries, the increase in grain yields has come to an
end.
                                               Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Simon Oxley
Where Else Will Grain Yields Stall?

• Wheat yields in France, Germany, and the United
  Kingdom have not increased in more than a decade
• Japan’s rice yields have plateaued; China’s may be
  leveling off as well
• With rising temperatures, farmers everywhere face
  new climate constraints even as they approach
  biological limits

 Thus far, rice or wheat yields have plateaued only
 in medium-sized countries. What happens when
 grain yields plateau in some of the larger ones?
                                         Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Dave Hughes
Higher Temperatures, Lower Yields
• The massive burning of fossil fuels is increasing
  the level of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the
  atmosphere, raising the earth’s temperature and
  disrupting climate
• The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
  projects earth’s average temperature will rise up to
  6.4 C (11.5 F) during this century
• Current trajectory is already outpacing projections
• For every 1°C rise in temperature above the
  optimum during the growing season, yields of
  wheat, rice, and corn can be expected to drop 10%
                                           Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / dra_schwartz
No More ―Normal‖
• In the past, extreme weather events were
  anomalies and farmers could expect a return to
  normal conditions by the next harvest
• But with rising temperatures and changing climate,
  there is no normal to return to
• The 11,000 year period of relative climate stability
  in which agriculture developed is over
• Increasing world grain stocks to ~110 days of
  consumption is one way to create a buffer against
  extreme weather
With each passing year, the agricultural system is
becoming more out of sync with the climate system.
                                            Photo Credit: USDA/Jack Dykinga
Soybeans Rise to Prominence
• Soybeans originated in
  China 3,000 years ago          World Soybean Production, 1950-2011

• Since 1930, soybean meal
  has been mixed into
  livestock feed as a source
  of high-quality protein
• Today, the United
  States, Brazil, and
  Argentina combined
  account for over four fifths
  of the total world
  production of nearly 250
  million tons
                                                     Photo Credit: USDA/ Scott Bauer
China Dominates Demand
• In 2008, China surpassed      Soybean Production, Consumption, and
  the United States as the           Imports in China, 1964-2011
  leading soybean consumer

• 500 million pigs – half the
  world total – live in
  China, eating soybean meal
  mixed with grain

• China currently imports
  60% of all soybeans traded
  internationally

As China and other developing countries continue to move
up the food chain, this demand will only increase.
                                                      Photo Credit: USDA/ Keith Weller
New Geopolitics of Food Scarcity
• Doubling of grain, soybean            Large-scale Land Acquisitions by Project
  prices in 2007-08 revealed a             Type, October 2008 – August 2009

  new geopolitics of food—
  every country for itself:
   – Russia, Thailand, other grain
     exporting countries restricted
     or banned exports
   – Some importers turned to
     buying or leasing tracts of land
     in other countries on which to
     grow food
   – These land acquisitions, often
     called ―land grabs,‖ multiplied
     quickly


                                                           Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Pawel Gaul
Ethiopia as Microcosm
• Farmers, indigenous people often find out about deals
  only as they are forced from their land
   – By early 2012, more than 1 million Ethiopians forcibly
     relocated by their government
• Informal land rights make it difficult for people to protest
• Projects using highly-mechanized, industrial agriculture;
  few jobs for local people
• Food produced most often shipped to investor’s home
  country, contributing nothing to the local food supply
• Land grabs for agriculture are also necessarily water
  grabs

                                                 Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / BanksPhotos
Toward a More Stable Food System

Demand Side                 Supply Side
• Stabilize population      • Conserve soil
• Eradicate poverty         • Increase water
• Reduce excessive meat       productivity
  consumption               • Fill the yield gap
• Eliminate biofuels        • Stabilize climate
  mandates



If we tackle both sides of the food equation, we can
rebuild world grain stocks, improving food security.
                                              Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Niko Vujevic
Redefining Security
• Historically, security has been defined mostly
  in military terms
• But today climate volatility, emerging water
  shortages, spreading hunger, and failing
  states are the new threats to survival
• Food security is not just in the hands of
  agricultural departments
• The challenge is to reorder fiscal priorities to
  match these new dangers


                                           Photo Credit: Yann Arthus-Bertrand
To learn more about the global food
            situation…
                    read Full Planet, Empty
                  Plates: The New Geopolitics
                       of Food Scarcity by
                   Lester R. Brown. The book
                     and supporting data sets
                           are available at
                      www.earth-policy.org

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Full Planet, Empty Plates Appetizer Slideshow

  • 1. An overview presentation for Full Planet, Empty Plates: The New Geopolitics of Food Scarcity A book by Lester R. Brown
  • 2. An Era of Rising Food Prices • 2007-08: Grain and soybean prices more than doubled, leading to food riots and unrest in some 60 countries • Prices eased somewhat with global recession • 2010-11: Another price spike helped fuel the Arab Spring • 2012: Prices again approaching or setting records Corn Futures Prices Wheat Futures Prices Soybean Futures Prices Source: CME Group
  • 3. Precarious Global Food Situation World Grain Production and Consumption, • Dangerously small 1960-2011 margin between grain consumption and grain production • Now we face long-term trends that: – increase food demand – limit food production We are only one poor harvest away from chaos in world grain markets. Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Tobias Helbig
  • 4. Demand Growing, Supply Strained Demand Side Supply Side • Growing population • Eroding soils • People moving up the • Depleting aquifers food chain • Plateauing grain • Biofuels turning food yields into fuel • Rising temperature Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Tobias Helbig
  • 5. From Surplus to Scarcity World Grain Stocks as Days of • In the past, world had Consumption, 1990-2012 two safety cushions in case of harvest shortfall: – idled U.S. cropland – large stocks of grain • Now, we have lost those two safety cushions – U.S. abandoned cropland set aside programs – grain stocks have fallen dangerously low Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Tobias Helbig
  • 6. Population Pressures • 7 billion people on the World Population, 1800-2010, with Projection to 2100 planet • Each year, nearly 80 million people added • Some 215 million women who want to plan their families lack access to family planning services • Large families trap people in poverty We are fast outgrowing the earth’s capacity to sustain our increasing numbers. Photo Credit: Yann Arthus-Bertrand
  • 7. System Overload • Overfishing: 80% of oceanic fisheries are being fished at or beyond their sustainable yield • Overgrazing: The global grazing livestock population grew by 1.2 billion animals since 1960 • Overcutting: The world’s forests lose a net 5.6 million hectares—an area the size of Costa Rica— each year • Overplowing: In parts of Africa, Asia, and the Middle East, productive cropland is turning into wasteland • Overpumping: Half the world’s population lives in countries that are extracting groundwater from aquifers faster than it is replenished Photo Credit: USDA/ Stephen Ausmus; Yann Arthus-Bertrand
  • 8. More Meat, More Feed • World meat demand grew World Meat Production by Type, 1950-2010 fivefold since 1950 • As incomes rise, some 3 billion people in the developing world desire to eat more meat, milk, and eggs • This requires more grain and soybeans for animal feed Photo Credit: USDA / Keith Weller
  • 9. Feeding Cars Instead of People • U.S. corn is largest crop of Corn Use for Feed and Fuel Ethanol any grain worldwide, critical in the United States, 1980-2011 to world supplies • Close to 1/3 of U.S. grain now going to ethanol • Grain used to fuel U.S. cars in 2011 could otherwise have fed 400 million people • U.S. ethanol euphoria beginning in 2005 helped raise food prices worldwide The grain needed to fill an SUV’s 25-gallon tank with ethanol once could feed one person for a year. Photo Credit: USDA / Scott Bauer
  • 10. Worsening Soil Erosion • Overplowing, overgrazing, and deforestation make soil vulnerable to wind and water erosion • Roughly 1/3 of the world’s cropland is now losing topsoil faster than it can be re-formed • Topsoil loss reduces productivity, eventually leading farmers and herders to abandon their land • Countries such as Lesotho, Haiti, Mongolia, and North Korea are losing the ability to feed themselves Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Steven Allan
  • 11. Dust Bowls Today • Now overgrazing in northwestern China and western Mongolia is leading to the merging of deserts and the formation of dust storms that sweep across the continent, sometimes even as far as North America • Population and livestock pressure in the African Sahel has destroyed soils; dust storms carrying 2–3 billion tons of soil leave Africa each year These two newer dust bowls dwarf anything the world has seen before. We have yet to see their full effects. Photo Credit: NASA Earth Observatory
  • 12. Coming Water Shortages 18 countries, 3.6 billion people Source: EPI • Overpumping produces food bubbles that burst when water supplies dry up • 175 million people in India and 130 million people in China eat grain produced by overpumping • In the Arab Middle East, a collision between population growth and water supply is reducing regional grain harvests
  • 13. Saudi Arabia’s Bursting Bubble • Saudi Arabia became Wheat Production in Saudi Arabia, 1995- self-sufficient in wheat 2011, with Projection to 2016 by tapping its non- replenishable aquifer to irrigate the desert • In early 2008, the government announced the aquifer was largely depleted • The population of nearly 30 million will be entirely dependent on imported grain by 2016 Saudi Arabia is the first country to publicly project how aquifer depletion will shrink its grain harvest. Photo Credit: NASA
  • 14. Growth in Grain Yields Slowing World Average Grain Yield, 1950-2011 • World average grain yield has tripled since 1950 • But the pace of growth is slowing – 1950-1990: It grew 2.2% per year – 1990-2011: It grew 1.3% per year In some of the more agriculturally advanced countries, the increase in grain yields has come to an end. Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Simon Oxley
  • 15. Where Else Will Grain Yields Stall? • Wheat yields in France, Germany, and the United Kingdom have not increased in more than a decade • Japan’s rice yields have plateaued; China’s may be leveling off as well • With rising temperatures, farmers everywhere face new climate constraints even as they approach biological limits Thus far, rice or wheat yields have plateaued only in medium-sized countries. What happens when grain yields plateau in some of the larger ones? Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Dave Hughes
  • 16. Higher Temperatures, Lower Yields • The massive burning of fossil fuels is increasing the level of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere, raising the earth’s temperature and disrupting climate • The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projects earth’s average temperature will rise up to 6.4 C (11.5 F) during this century • Current trajectory is already outpacing projections • For every 1°C rise in temperature above the optimum during the growing season, yields of wheat, rice, and corn can be expected to drop 10% Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / dra_schwartz
  • 17. No More ―Normal‖ • In the past, extreme weather events were anomalies and farmers could expect a return to normal conditions by the next harvest • But with rising temperatures and changing climate, there is no normal to return to • The 11,000 year period of relative climate stability in which agriculture developed is over • Increasing world grain stocks to ~110 days of consumption is one way to create a buffer against extreme weather With each passing year, the agricultural system is becoming more out of sync with the climate system. Photo Credit: USDA/Jack Dykinga
  • 18. Soybeans Rise to Prominence • Soybeans originated in China 3,000 years ago World Soybean Production, 1950-2011 • Since 1930, soybean meal has been mixed into livestock feed as a source of high-quality protein • Today, the United States, Brazil, and Argentina combined account for over four fifths of the total world production of nearly 250 million tons Photo Credit: USDA/ Scott Bauer
  • 19. China Dominates Demand • In 2008, China surpassed Soybean Production, Consumption, and the United States as the Imports in China, 1964-2011 leading soybean consumer • 500 million pigs – half the world total – live in China, eating soybean meal mixed with grain • China currently imports 60% of all soybeans traded internationally As China and other developing countries continue to move up the food chain, this demand will only increase. Photo Credit: USDA/ Keith Weller
  • 20. New Geopolitics of Food Scarcity • Doubling of grain, soybean Large-scale Land Acquisitions by Project prices in 2007-08 revealed a Type, October 2008 – August 2009 new geopolitics of food— every country for itself: – Russia, Thailand, other grain exporting countries restricted or banned exports – Some importers turned to buying or leasing tracts of land in other countries on which to grow food – These land acquisitions, often called ―land grabs,‖ multiplied quickly Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Pawel Gaul
  • 21. Ethiopia as Microcosm • Farmers, indigenous people often find out about deals only as they are forced from their land – By early 2012, more than 1 million Ethiopians forcibly relocated by their government • Informal land rights make it difficult for people to protest • Projects using highly-mechanized, industrial agriculture; few jobs for local people • Food produced most often shipped to investor’s home country, contributing nothing to the local food supply • Land grabs for agriculture are also necessarily water grabs Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / BanksPhotos
  • 22. Toward a More Stable Food System Demand Side Supply Side • Stabilize population • Conserve soil • Eradicate poverty • Increase water • Reduce excessive meat productivity consumption • Fill the yield gap • Eliminate biofuels • Stabilize climate mandates If we tackle both sides of the food equation, we can rebuild world grain stocks, improving food security. Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Niko Vujevic
  • 23. Redefining Security • Historically, security has been defined mostly in military terms • But today climate volatility, emerging water shortages, spreading hunger, and failing states are the new threats to survival • Food security is not just in the hands of agricultural departments • The challenge is to reorder fiscal priorities to match these new dangers Photo Credit: Yann Arthus-Bertrand
  • 24. To learn more about the global food situation… read Full Planet, Empty Plates: The New Geopolitics of Food Scarcity by Lester R. Brown. The book and supporting data sets are available at www.earth-policy.org