2. What is twitter?
A digital medium to share & consume info:
•Content (pics, vids, links, articles)
•Ideas
•Opinions
•Statuses
“Micro-blogging”
3. A bit about stock value
Value derived from perceived performance of
Companies
•Quantitative
oPublically available fin. info / analysis
•Qualitative
oviews / attitudes toward situations / events
oSentiment
Market of information!
5. #tagclouds / Persistent Search
HootSuite | TweetDeck
Gives Sentiment Context:
Sentiment relative to defined term(s)
Other terms associated with defined term(s)
6. Wall Street Birds
aggregates twitter sentiment to predict future stock performance
Claim 87% accuracy
Bollen, Mao, Zen: “Twitter mood predicts the stock market”
Decision making tied to emotion & perception
Twitter Sentiment predicts emotion & perception
Twitter sentiment can predict future stock performance.
Build by Modulus Informatics, Inc. in Scottsdale, AZ
7. Check out how I'm
monitoring $AAPL
stock using global
twitter sentiment
http://ow.ly/7wi6v
#CashMoney
8. I’m Skepitcal…
Natural Language Processing largely English
only.
Hard to analyze:
•sarcasm
•words with multiple meanings
•Vernacular / slang
•Short-hand
My $AAPL stock is
killin' it! F**ing Dyin’
of Happiness!
#Thatswassup
9. So I did my own analysis…
Sunday 11/20/11 @ 5:00pm PST
1-day price % ∆ P/E Div. Yield Price to
Book
Net profit
Margin
EPS ROE
-1.16% 16.07 3.42 4.14 10.82% 27.68 13.79
1-day price % ∆ P/E Div. Yield Price to
Book
Net profit
Margin
EPS ROE
-0.65% 13.55 NA 4.58 23.95% 27.68 41.67
Technology Industry
Apple Inc.
$10B in cash and $27B in short-term debt.
11. Conclusion
AAPL stock is, by definition, ‘bearish’ (downward moving)
AND
Sentiment about AAPL shows concern after Steve Job’s death
BUT
Product interest seems high, esp. regarding Black Friday, and
AAPL is beating industry avg. I would hold stock and monitor
AAPL’s performance and sentiment closely going forward
12. Stock Twits – social media, trader community
• Trending stock symbols, twitter streams, chart-sharing
Vid: UK Hedge Fund uses Twitter to Monitor Market Movements
Hedge Funds Ignore Social Media - Survey
Additional Resources
Notes de l'éditeur
With only 140 characters, people hit the key b/c they can’t beat around the bush.
If Apple is going to struggle after leadership transition, it’s balance sheet and bottom line probably would not reflect it this close to Steve Job’s death. If people continuing to post about leadership concerns at AAPL and AAPL’s performance begins declining, then I’d sell.