2. SIMULATION
Def: Simulation: The imitation of chance behavior based on a model
that accurately reflects the phenomenon under consideration
Steps:
1.) State the problem or describe the random phenomenon (this is
more for
real life, in a classroom this will be the example or test question)
What is the likelihood that a female will be chosen from AP Stats to
bring in candy for our next activity?
2.) State the assumptions (this is the percentage of something that
you are
testing)
- ex: 80% of students in an AP Stats class are male
- Candy is needed for next activity
- male and female are independent traits
3. 3.) Assign digits to represent outcomes to match expectations
- ex Let #1-4 represent male, #5 represent female for random #
generator
- ex Let #0-7 represent male, #8-9 represent female for random # table
4.) Simulate many repetitions
Decide how many repetitions would be needed to draw a clear
conclusion - we will discuss this more in a later chapter, for now we will
use
25 trials.
5.) State your conclusion:
We estimate the probability of a female being chosen to be:
Notice: the conclusion is based on experimental evidence not
theoretical evidence.
4. Assigning Digits: (Correspondence)
When choosing digits for a random # generator, choose enough that will make
sense to the given %.
Examples:
75 % could be represented by
1-4 where 1-3 represent the 75% and 4 represents the other 25%
OR
00-99 where 00-74 the 75% and 75-99 represent the other 25%
60% could be represented by
0-9 where 0-5 represent the 60% and 6-9 represents the other 40%
OR
1-5 where 1-3 represent the 60% and 4-5 represent the other 40%
OR
00-99 where 00-59 represent the 60% and 60-99 represent the other 40%
SIMPLE RANDOM SAMPLE (SRS)
Consists of n individuals from the population to be chosen in such a way that every
set of n individuals has an equal chance of being the sample that is selected
