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The Future of the Long Tail
Chris Anderson
20th Century Media Giants
21st Century Media Giants
Traditional media
Individuals
New media
20th Century Markets
Variety
Popularity
21st Century Markets
Amazon’s Tail Gets Longer
Source: Byrnjolfsson, Yu, Smith, MIT
Music ratings improve as music gets more niche
10 100 1k 10K
100K 1M Rank Source: Goel, et al, Yahoo
The Long Tail is driven by two factors:
1. Increased choice
2. Decreased search costs
The Three Rules of the Long Tail
1.If you can lower the cost of creation and/or distribution,
you can offer more stuff/variety
2.“More variety” means the ability to satisfy more minority
taste and address more granular markets
3.There’s a lot of “room at the bottom” and all the most
interesting things come from the most unexpected places
(Example: YouTube)
A powerlaw
Shown another way
WTF?
The Missing Market
Where has the Long Tail won?
● Advertising (“long tail keywords”)
● Media content (YouTube, Spotify, Netflix, podcasts)
● Ecommerce (Amazon, Taobao, Mercado Libre etc)
● Mobile apps/games
● Social (influencers/“microcelebrity”)
Basically the whole Internet...
(“FAANG” = Facebook, Apple,
Amazon, Netflix, Google)
The impact of Covid...
● Accelerated shift to e-commerce
● Remote work opens Long Tail of Talent
● Remote teaching opens Long Tail of Education
Anything that moves online
automatically expands to the Long
Tail
Source: eMarketer
The Long Tail of Talent
People who work for competitors
“Fit”
Number of candidates
People who work elsewhere in the industry
People who went to the “right” schools
People who went to less right schools
People who work in the industry in another country
People who went to school in another country. Etc....
Person who has no
obvious
qualifications but is
nevertheless the
best person in the
world for this job
Covid is driving a broadening in the search for talent
Source: Cisco Survey, July 2020
“How will your hiring change as a result of the Pandemic?”
● Online degrees (Universities offering
online degrees, plus Coursera,
Udacity, Udemy, etc)
● Homeschooling
● Hybrid learning (“flipped classroom”)
● Continuing education (mid-career
“upskilling” by self-learning online)
The Long Tail of Education
The Long Tail of Education
[Forum Global Edition] The Future of the Long Tail

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[Forum Global Edition] The Future of the Long Tail

  • 1. The Future of the Long Tail Chris Anderson
  • 7.
  • 8.
  • 9. Amazon’s Tail Gets Longer Source: Byrnjolfsson, Yu, Smith, MIT
  • 10. Music ratings improve as music gets more niche 10 100 1k 10K 100K 1M Rank Source: Goel, et al, Yahoo
  • 11. The Long Tail is driven by two factors: 1. Increased choice 2. Decreased search costs
  • 12. The Three Rules of the Long Tail 1.If you can lower the cost of creation and/or distribution, you can offer more stuff/variety 2.“More variety” means the ability to satisfy more minority taste and address more granular markets 3.There’s a lot of “room at the bottom” and all the most interesting things come from the most unexpected places (Example: YouTube)
  • 15. WTF?
  • 17. Where has the Long Tail won? ● Advertising (“long tail keywords”) ● Media content (YouTube, Spotify, Netflix, podcasts) ● Ecommerce (Amazon, Taobao, Mercado Libre etc) ● Mobile apps/games ● Social (influencers/“microcelebrity”) Basically the whole Internet...
  • 18.
  • 19. (“FAANG” = Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google)
  • 20. The impact of Covid... ● Accelerated shift to e-commerce ● Remote work opens Long Tail of Talent ● Remote teaching opens Long Tail of Education Anything that moves online automatically expands to the Long Tail
  • 22. The Long Tail of Talent People who work for competitors “Fit” Number of candidates People who work elsewhere in the industry People who went to the “right” schools People who went to less right schools People who work in the industry in another country People who went to school in another country. Etc.... Person who has no obvious qualifications but is nevertheless the best person in the world for this job
  • 23. Covid is driving a broadening in the search for talent Source: Cisco Survey, July 2020 “How will your hiring change as a result of the Pandemic?”
  • 24. ● Online degrees (Universities offering online degrees, plus Coursera, Udacity, Udemy, etc) ● Homeschooling ● Hybrid learning (“flipped classroom”) ● Continuing education (mid-career “upskilling” by self-learning online) The Long Tail of Education
  • 25. The Long Tail of Education